Thoughts on Koh Samui, tourism, and the future

[Airbagwill]

It doesn't even necessarily come down to declining Westerner numbers it is more about increased Chinese....... but the info-graph does demonstrate the preferences for different product between nations.

[khunPer]

4 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

Well, here at the pointy end we are still flat out.

 

190 ins and outs booked for this month. Probably not going to get many new bookings as most of the villas are full. Lots of Chinese still (about 40%) and quit a few Indians. We always get the gaps filled over full moon party time so 100% occupied. Guests are just leaving now.

 

Went to Maenam last Sunday to watch the rugby with a friend. Lots of traffic Sunday evening about 19.30.

People walking along the streets in Bangrak and Bophut (ring road). The place looked busy with people looking for food/drink.

 

Local people that I use for car hire are struggling to find large cars for guests for the big groups and yes - they mostly stay in the villas. Boxes of empty beer bottles and wine/spirit bottles in the trash cans.

 

Restaurants that I recommend to guests are doing well in Choengmon/Bangrak.

Maenam Beach seems busy – but not as busy as some few peaking summer-seasons some years ago – and same structure as I saw earlier, and last year. Some of the old-fashioned beachfront bungalows, now also old bungalows, aimed on Western tourists, are not so busy – seems like numerous empty rooms, and I know from the resort owners I know that they are far from full – whilst the up-end resorts seem very busy with a mix of couples, families with (loads of) children, and some special occasions like wedding party groups, and honeymoon guests; the latter can be seen with the complimentary "candlelight dinner for two on the beach"...

 

 

Also the places I regular visit in Chaweng seems more busy this season, than last year, but that might be a minor group of more partying guests – however some bring their children to the nightlife... – and not an indication of the island's tourism in general...????

[Vacuum]

23 hours ago, thasoss said:

empty streets dont lie.

...but saves lives.

[GalaxyMan]

The average occupancy rate of 27,000 rooms at Koh Samui, a popular destination in Surat Thani province, plunged sharply to 45% during the first six months this year, down from 65% in the same period last year, said Vorasit Pongkumpunt, president of the Tourism Association of Koh Samui. The number of Chinese visitors fell 25-30% in the first six month.

 

Last year, 6.1 million tourists visited Surat Thani province, of which 2.7 million reached Samui. Of the total, 10% were Thais. Foreign visitors were mostly from Germany, China, Eastern Europe, Australia and Britain.

Edited August 19, 2019 by GalaxyMan

[Tropicalevo]

1 hour ago, GalaxyMan said:

The average occupancy rate of 27,000 rooms at Koh Samui, a popular destination in Surat Thani province, plunged sharply to 45% during the first six months this year, down from 65% in the same period last year, said Vorasit Pongkumpunt, president of the Tourism Association of Koh Samui. The number of Chinese visitors fell 25-30% in the first six month.

 

Last year, 6.1 million tourists visited Surat Thani province, of which 2.7 million reached Samui. Of the total, 10% were Thais. Foreign visitors were mostly from Germany, China, Eastern Europe, Australia and Britain.

Yes, I read the article. It is interesting which 'facts' these 'experts' use. What is the occupancy this year for renting villas compared to last year? I am 100% sure that the Tourism Association of Koh Samui really does not have a clue.

 

For me, the villa rentals have more than doubled this year.

 

As an aside, how can there be accurate tourist numbers for Koh Samui. There are only accurate hotel bookings.

Tourist v business people on planes? Tourist v Thais on ferries? Does anyone count these different numbers? It would be useful to have an accurate view from these people.

[GalaxyMan]

55 minutes ago, Tropicalevo said:

Yes, I read the article. It is interesting which 'facts' these 'experts' use. What is the occupancy this year for renting villas compared to last year? I am 100% sure that the Tourism Association of Koh Samui really does not have a clue.

 

For me, the villa rentals have more than doubled this year.

 

As an aside, how can there be accurate tourist numbers for Koh Samui. There are only accurate hotel bookings.

Tourist v business people on planes? Tourist v Thais on ferries? Does anyone count these different numbers? It would be useful to have an accurate view from these people.

Yes, we know that you have to take anything from the TAT, especially numbers, with a grain of salt. Found it interesting, though. My friend who works at one of the Lipa Noi resorts tells me that it is much busier in August, but still nothing like previous years. Very few Chinese guests. The guests that they do have not spending money on extra services.

[thasoss]

On 7/28/2019 at 12:56 PM, Airbagwill said:

I think many on Thaivisa see tourism from a very western perspective.

They tend to see things as an aberration from a perceived norm...that is of a holiday destination for westerners.  They are

yes you are correct,we look at empty bars and restaurants,even though chinese visitors are apparently 45% lower than last year it appears some resorts are full.Samui's changing demographic has been ongoing since the GFC of 2008.No one wants/likes to see a slump in tourist numbers least of all owners/employees of hotels,resorts,restaurants and bars.

But other destinations like cambodia,vietnam are seeing an increase at thailand's expense.

[Airbagwill]

6 hours ago, thasoss said:

yes you are correct,we look at empty bars and restaurants,even though chinese visitors are apparently 45% lower than last year it appears some resorts are full.Samui's changing demographic has been ongoing since the GFC of 2008.No one wants/likes to see a slump in tourist numbers least of all owners/employees of hotels,resorts,restaurants and bars.

But other destinations like cambodia,vietnam are seeing an increase at thailand's expense.

Exactly what i was alluding to .... I think from this comment we can deduce that they look but don't see.

 We are talking demographics and product not farang small businesses .... Who are now beginning to lose out to the overall changes.

Edited August 19, 2019 by Airbagwill

[Airbagwill]

6 hours ago, GalaxyMan said:

Yes, we know that you have to take anything from the TAT, especially numbers, with a grain of salt. Found it interesting, though. My friend who works at one of the Lipa Noi resorts tells me that it is much busier in August, but still nothing like previous years. Very few Chinese guests. The guests that they do have not spending money on extra services.

I'm sure from a tiny perspective people can deuce anything that suits them .... but its pretty clear they are missing the trend. People with few Chinese guests should consider whether the product they offer is suitable for the Chinese market.

BTW the stats in my post are from the ATTA.

 

[gearbox]

My GF is considering buying a property here in Samui in the near future. I've been on and off here for almost an year and to me it looks like the place is slowly going downhill. As it is probably the most expensive major holiday place in Thailand, any global downturn may result in a full blown crash here. I think real estate on the mainland is safer for her to buy, as it is not so exposed to tourism downturns. With so many reasonably priced rentals available I don't see any urgency for her to buy here. And if she does buy, looking at the RE ads the place will be hers forever - doesn't look like anyone is able to sell, at least at the prices they are asking.

 

 

 

  

[Airbagwill]

9 minutes ago, gearbox said:

My GF is considering buying a property here in Samui in the near future. I've been on and off here for almost an year and to me it looks like the place is slowly going downhill. As it is probably the most expensive major holiday place in Thailand, any global downturn may result in a full blown crash here. I think real estate on the mainland is safer for her to buy, as it is not so exposed to tourism downturns. With so many reasonably priced rentals available I don't see any urgency for her to buy here. And if she does buy, looking at the RE ads the place will be hers forever - doesn't look like anyone is able to sell, at least at the prices they are asking.

 

 

 

  

role have been predicting crashes since the crash in the 1990s, but they never quite happen......in fact tha inks to corruption graft and nepotism, normal market forces don't work very well in Thailand and one has to consider other factors.

[plfomylo]

hello, where do you eat at night on Samui now, and which club / bar opens late ?

Lately do the cops close bars and check <deleted> ? Some friends are coming from EU with their blood fully loaded, so if you know the current rate in case of problems, thank you.

[Ron jeremy]

On August 21, 2019 at 12:20 AM, gearbox said:

My GF is considering buying a property here in Samui in the near future. I've been on and off here for almost an year and to me it looks like the place is slowly going downhill. As it is probably the most expensive major holiday place in Thailand, any global downturn may result in a full blown crash here. I think real estate on the mainland is safer for her to buy, as it is not so exposed to tourism downturns. With so many reasonably priced rentals available I don't see any urgency for her to buy here. And if she does buy, looking at the RE ads the place will be hers forever - doesn't look like anyone is able to sell, at least at the prices they are asking.

 

 

 

  

Best to do your due diligence before buying anywhere in Thailand, who knows what the future Will bring?

if I would have rubbed a crystal ball several years ago, it couldn't have forecast the <deleted> happening now.

thank my lucky stars I never invested there.

and so do my friends that made that mistake. Very few if any would buy if they knew then what they know now.

[emptypockets]

34 minutes ago, plfomylo said:

hello, where do you eat at night on Samui now, and which club / bar opens late ?

Lately do the cops close bars and check <deleted> ? Some friends are coming from EU with their blood fully loaded, so if you know the current rate in case of problems, thank you.

Blood fully loaded? say what?

[dirtybirty]

Sums it up really

Sent from my SM-A510F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[kiever]

6 hours ago, emptypockets said:

Blood fully loaded? say what?

He means drugs 

[khunPer]

On 8/21/2019 at 6:20 AM, gearbox said:

My GF is considering buying a property here in Samui in the near future. I've been on and off here for almost an year and to me it looks like the place is slowly going downhill. As it is probably the most expensive major holiday place in Thailand, any global downturn may result in a full blown crash here. I think real estate on the mainland is safer for her to buy, as it is not so exposed to tourism downturns. With so many reasonably priced rentals available I don't see any urgency for her to buy here. And if she does buy, looking at the RE ads the place will be hers forever - doesn't look like anyone is able to sell, at least at the prices they are asking.  

If you GF is considering buying property for investment, especially shorter terms, Samui is not the place.

 

If your GF is considering buying a home to live in for longer time, it's a question if you like the property, the neighborhood, and the location; but don't expect it to a an "investment". After a number of years, which might be 10-15 years, you live in the house almost for free – for maintenance only – compared to renting something similar.

 

Asking prices and actual selling prices might be quite different at Samui, those asking too high prices have their property for sale 10+ years.

 

Raw land prices has not increased much during the last decade – still plenty of land available in range around 3½ million baht per rai – apart from certain attractive locations that might have gone up by 100% or so.

 

Town houses seems difficult to sell, and rent out, at the moment – not only on Samui, the news talked about Bangkok earlier this month – so that might be an option.

[khunPer]

12 hours ago, plfomylo said:

hello, where do you eat at night on Samui now, and which club / bar opens late ?

Lately do the cops close bars and check <deleted> ? Some friends are coming from EU with their blood fully loaded, so if you know the current rate in case of problems, thank you.

If "blood fully loaded" is, what I think it is, I wouldn't come to Thailand at all.

 

Otherwise, to answer your questions, there are plenty of restaurant all over the island, if your are a bit more specific with location, and what price level you are looking for, I'm sure some posters will be have to recommend some excellent gourmet places open late.

 

If "eat" is something else, your EU-friends could try to check the party life in Chaweng.

 

Beach bars and clubs, like Ark Bar, close at 2 am as usual; Bars and pubs are often open till 3 am; a few bars and discos in soi Green Mango, including Green Mango Club, are open til 3:30 am; Stadion Bar in Soi Solo, and The Beach Bar in Chaweng Noi, are often open late.

 

And cops do occasionally check here and there, for this and that, so if your EU-friends are into some hanky-panky stuff, they better find another destination...????