Another tripping RCCB

[webfact]

Killing the leader may not be enough to stamp out Islamic State

By Ahmed Rasheed and Ahmed Aboulenein

 

FILE PHOTO: Iraqi youth watch the news of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi death, in Najaf, Iraq October 27, 2019. REUTERS/Alaa al-Marjani

 

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is of considerable importance, experts believe, but the underlying reasons for his jihadist group's existence remain and attacks in the Middle East and beyond are not likely to stop.

 

Baghdadi's death at the hands of the United States is likely to cause Islamic State to splinter, leaving whoever emerges as its new leader with the task of pulling the ultra hardline group back together as a fighting force.

 

Whether the loss of its leader will in itself affect the group's capabilities is open to doubt, analysts in the region say. Even if it does face difficulties in the leadership transition, the underlying ideology and the sectarian hatred it promoted remains attractive to many.

 

Where once they rode around in armoured vehicles, brandished rifles, flew black flags and indulged in acts of spectacular cruelty, the Sunni Muslim militants are now prisoners or scattered stragglers whose leader was chased down in a tunnel during a raid by American special forces.

 

"Operationally it doesn't affect much, they are already broken and globally their attacks have receded," said Rashad Ali, resident senior fellow at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a London-based think-tank. "They are mostly concentrated in the Iraqi-Syria borderlands."

 

"It doesn't make much of a difference other than the symbolism," he said. "If you think taking out one terrorist (matters) while failing to address the root causes that led this ideology to take hold, you are mistaken."

 

But some of those grievances are very much on show today. Sunni Muslims in Iraq are angered at their treatment by a ruling Shi'ite elite they see as under the influence of Iran and the Iranian-backed militias that now roam their provinces unchecked.

 

RECRUITMENT

In Syria, recruitment to groups such as Islamic State is encouraged by the killing of Sunnis by Syrian government forces backed by Iran and Russia.

 

Islamic State's effectiveness arises from its members' loyalty to its ultra-fanatical Islamist ideology, and this may not be much affected by the killing of its leader, said Fadhil Abu Ragheef, an Iraqi political analyst and security expert.

 

U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Army General Mark A. Milley briefed reporters at the Pentagon after President Trump announced that a U.S. military operation killed Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Rough cut (no reporter narration).

 

He said Islamic State's 9-man Shura Council, or leadership group, was expected to meet and appoint a leader from among five candidates.

 

Among the front runners are Abu Abdullah al-Jizrawi, a Saudi, and Abdullah Qaradash, an Iraqi and one of Baghdadi's right-hand men, also a former army officer under Saddam Hussein. Also mentioned is Abu Othman al-Tunisi, a Tunisian.

 

"The new leader will start working to pull together the group's power by relying on new recruits and fighters who fled the prisons in Syria. He is expected to launch a series of retaliatory attacks for the killing of Baghdadi," said Abu Ragheef.

 

It is possible that whoever takes over as the head of the group, which experts say has been beset by internal disputes, will cause it to splinter within months because he is unacceptable on grounds of nationality to some factions.

 

"For sure they will fight among themselves over resources. I predict the Iraqi faction will win because they have more money," said Iraqi analyst Hisham al-Hashemi, an expert on jihadist groups.

 

A security source with knowledge of militant groups in Iraq said the killing of Baghdadi would splinter the group's command structure because of differences between senior figures and lack of confidence among group members who were forced to go underground when the caliphate collapsed.

 

"We are aware that killing Baghdadi will not lead to the disappearance of Islamic State because eventually they will pick someone for the job," the source said. "But at same time whoever follows Baghdadi will not be in a position to keep the group united."

 

OPERATIONS

The new leader will attempt to restructure the group by encouraging followers to launch operations not only in Iraq but in other countries to raise morale among existing and new followers, the source said.

 

By franchising its name, Islamic State has attracted followers in Africa, Asia and Europe. Incidents such as one in London, where attackers used easily obtained weapons such as motor vehicles and knives, show that lack of organisational backing is not an obstacle.

 

In South East Asia, where Islamic State has spread its influence, officials believe the group's ideas will have to be fought even after Baghdadi's death.

 

"His death will have little impact here as the main problem remains the spread of the Islamic State ideology," Malaysian police counter-terrorism chief Ayob Khan Mydin Pitchay told Reuters.

 

"What we are most worried about now are 'lone wolf' attacks and those who are self-radicalised through the internet. We are still seeing the spread of IS teachings online. IS publications and magazines from years ago are being reproduced and re-shared," he said.

 

In Iraq, where Baghdadi proclaimed his caliphate from the Grand al-Nuri Mosque in 2014, authorities have pursued a policy of taking out senior Islamic State figures as an effective way of keeping the group on the back foot.

 

Hashemi argues that more is needed.

 

"They have the ability to regroup. The way to stop that is through real fostering of democracy and civil society, truly addressing grievances, in short, creating an environment that repels terrorism," he said.

 

"Killing leaders is definitely a good thing but it does not prevent their return, only creating such an environment does," he added.

 

(Reporting by Ahmed Rasheed and Ahmed Aboulenein; Writing by Giles Elgood, Editing by William Maclean)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-10-29

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[Tug]

I agree with much of what the above poster states with the exception of his attack on the mainstream media for the life of me I have never seen or heard of them glorifying coddling or defending isis or any of those sicko a holes as far as I’m concerned they deserve no country or life

[Barry343]

1 minute ago, Tug said:

I agree with much of what the above poster states with the exception of his attack on the mainstream media for the life of me I have never seen or heard of them glorifying coddling or defending isis or any of those sicko a holes as far as I’m concerned they deserve no country or life

I read it as he wanted the MSM glorifying the attack which killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

[stevenl]

17 minutes ago, Barry343 said:

I read it as he wanted the MSM glorifying the attack which killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

You read wrong.

[thaibeachlovers]

Can't kill an idea. A new leader will take over. IS will continue.

[Saint Nick]

"Killing the leader may not be enough to stamp out Islamic State"

Well...no S**T, Sherlock!

[chilli42]

Islamic militants (And drug cartels) are like cockroaches.  Does not matter how many you kill there will be more to take their place.

[olfu]

All religions must be private matter--that's the point.

[metisdead]

Some troll posts and the replies have been removed. 

[flexomike]

2 hours ago, chilli42 said:

Islamic militants (And drug cartels) are like cockroaches.  Does not matter how many you kill there will be more to take their place.

My feelings exactly 

[DogNo1]

Is it politically incorrect to identify the root cause of the violent extremism as the long-standing conflict between the Shia and Sunni sects of Islam?  Does anyone remember the lengths that Gen. Petraeus had to go to in Iraq to stop the violence? Does anyone really expect this inter-sect violence to diminish?  It appears to be a never-ending conflict to me.

[Crazy Alex]

"May not"? Of course it won't be enough. This is small victory, nothing more. Sadly, there is never a shortage of savages to do evil stuff.

[bristolboy]

3 hours ago, DogNo1 said:

Is it politically incorrect to identify the root cause of the violent extremism as the long-standing conflict between the Shia and Sunni sects of Islam?  Does anyone remember the lengths that Gen. Petraeus had to go to in Iraq to stop the violence? Does anyone really expect this inter-sect violence to diminish?  It appears to be a never-ending conflict to me.

Whether it's politically incorrect or not, it's certainly historically incorrect. This is about an extreme branch of Sunni Islam that treats most other branches of Islam as heretical, which means most Sunnis and all Shias.

[CGW]

Interesting that no one has remarked on the USA, acting as the worlds Policemen has "illegally"? assassinated a person in a foreign country, if the Chinese or Russians start to assassination people in foreign countries will that also be acceptable?

Rocky road were going down here!

[emptypockets]

5 hours ago, CGW said:

Interesting that no one has remarked on the USA, acting as the worlds Policemen has "illegally"? assassinated a person in a foreign country, if the Chinese or Russians start to assassination people in foreign countries will that also be acceptable?

Rocky road were going down here!

Been happening for years by all three countries you mention. Not likely to change any time soon.

[Scott]

Off-topic posts removed. 

[spidermike007]

And as usual Trump is taking all the credit for this. He barely mentions the men and women in uniform. 

 

Check out the difference between a man of dignity our current circus clown leader, and their press conference after a major takedown. 

 

 

[Fireyfish]

Religion .... can't have a decent war without it  .... unless you have oil of course ...

[Skallywag]

22 hours ago, webfact said:

What we are most worried about now are 'lone wolf' attacks and those who are self-radicalised through the internet.

So, in the U.S. there have been 300-400 mass shootings by "lone wolfs" every year since 2010.  

But the U.S. is "most worried" about lone wolf attacks by Sunni/ISIS radicals in the middle east. 

Makes no sense

[gk10002000]

well they can still loot and plunder and steal and get money and things. So in a place that has so few job opportunities, such groups will always attract some people.