Corona Virus in Chiang Mai

[Destiny1990]

4 minutes ago, orang37 said:

 

Is it as risky if we don't go all the way ? How can I stop sex having me ?

 

Please reply with details.

 

~o:37;

Some folks can just ignore my warning and carry on as usual ????

[Sheryl]

On 1/26/2020 at 5:13 PM, pgrahmm said:

Reports are some are dying/dropping dead without exhibiting symptoms....

Could be they're already weak, or some strains are more lethal - (and hopefully not evolving)....

 

There have been no bona fide reports of anything remotely of the sort.

 

Rumor mill is in overdrive. Please do not feed it.

 

What has been proven -- and is no surprise at all as usually the case -- is that there are infected people who are asymptomatic and (less common but hardly unknown) it appears they can transmit the virus without having symptoms themselves. 

 

Asymptomatic people are not keeling over dead nor are the overwhelming majority of symptomatic people. Case fatality rate even among the cases serious enough to be identified and hospitalized is under 5% and these are the more severe subset. The true fatality rate is likely a tenth of that since most cases don't get identified as the person has what seems like no more than a cold and does mot seek medical care.

 

Most deaths have been in the elderly and people with weakened immune systems as is true of any flu.

[ChakaKhan]

On 1/26/2020 at 2:15 AM, Gweiloman said:

Marriott Hotel rooftop bar? I didn’t realise they were doing cheap drinks promotions for as we know, the Chinese are low cost tourists and don’t spend any money. t

Strictly for selfies..just go look on nimman one...

[mike787]

Expected!  THis is a pandemic already.  News is only catching up like lighting versus thunder.

[Logosone]

It is quite amusing how some people are taken in by media hysteria and start to wear face masks to the bathroom.

 

In case you missed it, the flu kills 12000 to 61,000 every year, in one country, the US. The coronavirus' relative SARS, at its very worst, killed a little over 800 people worldwide.

 

You should all be more concerned about Americans with a flu being near you than Chinese with coronavirus ????.

 

People who stress out over this coronavirus are just poorly informed. Why on earth would you worry about it, when the flu kills 12000 to 61000 people each year in the US? SARS killed just over 800 world wide, at its worst.

 

Yes, it's a pandemic, of micro mini proportions so far. But so what? We've had many pandemics before. In 2009 there was a swine flu epidemic that killed 151,000–579,000 people. Does anybody even remember it? Life goes on.

 

Yes, wash your hands. Wear a mask. Or a full-body protection suit. Either way, if you worry about the coronavirus you're just ill-informed and a victim of mass media hysteria. 

 

As for the claim that people drop dead without showing symptoms I challenge that poster to produce the evidence to back this fantastic claim up. Thanks.

Edited January 28, 2020 by Logosone

[WaveHunter]

2 hours ago, Logosone said:

It is quite amusing how some people are taken in by media hysteria and start to wear face masks to the bathroom.

 

In case you missed it, the flu kills 12000 to 61,000 every year, in one country, the US. The coronavirus' relative SARS, at its very worst, killed a little over 800 people worldwide.

 

You should all be more concerned about Americans with a flu being near you than Chinese with coronavirus ????.

 

People who stress out over this coronavirus are just poorly informed. Why on earth would you worry about it, when the flu kills 12000 to 61000 people each year in the US? SARS killed just over 800 world wide, at its worst.

 

Yes, it's a pandemic, of micro mini proportions so far. But so what? We've had many pandemics before. In 2009 there was a swine flu epidemic that killed 151,000–579,000 people. Does anybody even remember it? Life goes on.

 

Yes, wash your hands. Wear a mask. Or a full-body protection suit. Either way, if you worry about the coronavirus you're just ill-informed and a victim of mass media hysteria. 

 

As for the claim that people drop dead without showing symptoms I challenge that poster to produce the evidence to back this fantastic claim up. Thanks.

With all due respect, you are NOT very well informed concerning the Wuhan Coronavirus.  There are significant differences between the Wuhan Coronavirus and influenza or or other coronaviruses such as SARS or MERS which place it in a unique and worrisome category.  Do your homework and get your FACTS from science-based sources, not media reporting (state-based or otherwise)!

 

At present, the mortality rate is around 3%, mainly in people 60 years and older, but statistics show that cases in younger age groups are increasing.    There is also evidence that the virus may be mutating to a more virulent form so this mortality rate is tentative at best.  Just for comparison, the mortality rate for influenza is below 1%, and for SARS it was more than 10%.  A crucial difference is that unlike flu, there is no vaccine for this new Wuhan coronavirus, which means it is more difficult for vulnerable members of the population – elderly people or those with existing respiratory or immune problems – to protect themselves.

 

The fact is that we still do not know just how serious this virus is.  What is troublesome is that no symptoms occur during the incubation period yet human-to-human transmission during this period has been confirmed.  The asymptomatic incubation period can be from 10-14 days so for another week or two, the true number of international cases will not be known since quarantines and cursory checks at international airports only began this week.  What's more, many travellers presently or just recently returning from China will show NO symptoms at all during airport screenings. 

 

So, the real severity of all of this will not be known for several more weeks BUT the number of cases surely will increase dramatically at least until the window of incubation for pre-quarateened / pre-screened travelers has been played out.  A LOT of people can thus be infected during this period without the donor even knowing he/she is sick!

 

True, there is no cause for irrational hysteria provided authorities take proper measures quickly and decisively but the big problem to date is that the Chinese government has NOT taken proper measures until the last couple of days when international confirmed cases began to be reported.  Up until then they were minimizing the situation, and even arresting those such as scientists, doctors, and journalists who voiced concerns.

 

The first outbreak in Wuhan occurred in mid-December , yet the government downplayed it until only a few days ago (january 23-23), and were even promoting huge public outdoor food festivals as recently as a week ago. The state controlled media was still downplaying the magnitude of the situation until only a few days ago, and actually urging citizens to go out and enjoy the Chinese New Years festivities.  This would have been the "perfect storm" had the Chinese government not finally reacted.

 

Now the entire Hubei province with a population of over 50 million people is in a state of quarantine (consider that this is the population of the entire Northeast USA) , and the city of Wuhan, with a population of over 11 million people is in a virtual lockdown, with all transportation routes in and out barricaded by the military!

 

While the Chinese government is NOW taking measures such as the round-the-clock building of two new hospitals to deal specifically with the Coronavirus, it's sort of like closing the barn door after the horse got out.  Had they acted back in December instead of trying to cover up and minimize the situation, it would have been a fairly easy thing to contain the virus.  Now it will be much more difficult, and it is now a global-wide problem. 

 

Suddenly (when international reports of cases began to emerge several days ago) the true magnitude emerged.  Chinese authorities have confirmed 4,529 cases of infection.  Fourteen other countries have now reported a total of 46 infections, as Germany, Cambodia, and Sri Lanka confirmed their first cases.  In the United States,as of today, there are 110 people being investigated for the virus 26 states, and The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention raised its travel warning to a level 3, urging U.S. citizens to avoid all nonessential travel to China.  I don't think there is any doubt that these international numbers will increase dramatically as the window for incubation closes for those who have recently travelled from China.

 

 

In short, I would say there is due cause for concern!  Not irrational fear but at the same time, not simply sticking your head in the sand in ignorant denial.

Edited January 28, 2020 by CharlieH
edited 5-11 as requested.

[WaveHunter]

Just a correction to my previous post:  The population of Wuhan is over 11 million people (not 5 million).  Many are under the impression that Wuhan is just some small Chinese city.  It actually has over twice the population of New York City!  Wuhan is now in a military lockdown...nobody leaves, nobody comes in.  Far more troubling is that essentials such as food, fresh water, and medical supplies will soon be depleted within the city.  Not good!

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by WaveHunter

[mike787]

If Coronavirus doesn't kill you Chiang mai's 4-6 months of burning WILL.  Guaranteed.  I used to live there and moved quick once I figured how bad is was. The point is, Wear an N95 certified mask if you want to survive in Chiang mai no matter what everyday you choose the reside there.

[WaveHunter]

6 minutes ago, mike787 said:

If Coronavirus doesn't kill you Chiang mai's 4-6 months of burning WILL.  Guaranteed.  I used to live there and moved quick once I figured how bad is was. The point is, Wear an N95 certified mask if you want to survive in Chiang mai no matter what everyday you choose the reside there.

A mask is fairly effective for environmental pollution such as experienced during a bad burning season here, but not very effective for viruses particularly once the mask is moist, though (since it covers the face) it does offer protection from hand to face transmission, which is a fairly common way that viruses are transmitted.  

 

Personally I have yet to find buring season that bad.  I've been living here for over two years.  It varies from year to year so perhaps I've just been lucky.

Edited January 28, 2020 by WaveHunter

[WaveHunter]

19 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

There have been no bona fide reports of anything remotely of the sort.

 

Rumor mill is in overdrive. Please do not feed it.

 

What has been proven -- and is no surprise at all as usually the case -- is that there are infected people who are asymptomatic and (less common but hardly unknown) it appears they can transmit the virus without having symptoms themselves. 

 

Asymptomatic people are not keeling over dead nor are the overwhelming majority of symptomatic people. Case fatality rate even among the cases serious enough to be identified and hospitalized is under 5% and these are the more severe subset. The true fatality rate is likely a tenth of that since most cases don't get identified as the person has what seems like no more than a cold and does mot seek medical care.

 

Most deaths have been in the elderly and people with weakened immune systems as is true of any flu.

It is the fact that asymptomatic people are capable of transmitting the virus that makes the Wuhan coronavirus so worrisome.  One of the luckiest breaks the world got with the SARS outbreak was the fact that the virus did not transmit before people developed symptoms.  That is not the case with the Wuhan coronavirus.  Furthermore, tools like quarantine and isolation — which were key to controlling SARS — are unlikely stop spread of a virus that can transmit during the period from infection to symptoms, experts say.

[CMNightRider]

On 1/24/2020 at 9:28 AM, sammieuk1 said:

I went to do a 90 day report in CM yesterday waste of time queues like I have never seen 6 deep on the steps and around the car park just to get in wonder if any virus vetting was taking place I gave up and went home not leaving the car anyone else there to confirm? ????

I had to spend three days there recently and this is exactly what I encountered.  I have been reporting to CM immigration for several years and this is the worst I have ever seen.  

 

I posted my experience on the CM forum, and had a few posters claim I was making it up and bragged about how they get processed so quickly.  Thanks for the post ????

[CMNightRider]

I wonder if the Thai government is still happy they have been making it difficult for westerners to live in Thailand, while opening up the flood gates for the Chinese?   

[ebourquin]

Appreciate the sensible updates. 

 

Just a few comments on comments. The population of NYC is ~8.5 million, so Wuhan is not twice the size. The air here in Chiang Mai is usually fine. I monitor it everyday. Somedays I wear a mask in Feb-April, some months certainly worse than other, but certainly not significantly worse than Bangkok on average.

[Logosone]

2 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

With all due respect, you are NOT very well informed concerning the Wuhan Coronavirus.  There are significant differences between the Wuhan Coronavirus and influenza or or other coronaviruses such as SARS or MERS which place it in a unique and worrisome category.  Do your homework and get your FACTS from science-based sources, not media reporting (state-based or otherwise)!

 

In short, I would say there is due cause for concern!  Not irrational fear but at the same time, not simply sticking your head in the sand in ignorant denial.

With all due respect you should go back to your sources and try to understand them a bit better. You are posting a lot of hysteric nonsense.

 

For starters the main significant difference between SARS. MERS and influenza is that the latter has centuries of being adapted to spreading among humans, and continues to be the real killer among human populations. SARS and MERS originated among animals and are not adapted to spread among humans, hence the oh so hysterical SARS outbreak did not cause anywhere NEAR the infection rates, let alone absolute death figures of influenza. It simply failed to spread like influenza can. Deaths from  SARS were ca 800, from Influenza 500,000 EVERY YEAR. And the coronavirus, even allowing for the 95% underreporting in China, assuming the 100,000 cases of Read, given 100 deaths is exactly 100 times LESS deadly than SARS, let alone MERS.

 

So precisely BECAUSE there are significant differences between influenza and Cov, MERS and SARS the fact still remains that Influenza is far more deadly in absolute terms than Cov, MERS or SARS. 

 

Secondly, you seem a bit confused about the numbers. If you take YOUR OWN number, or rather the number from Read you quoted, of 100,000 estimated actual cases, then 100 deaths means the coronavirus has a death rate of 0.1%, Which is more or less exactly the same mortality rate as the common flu, or Influenza. With the crucial difference that Cov has not adapted to spread among humans yet, the way Influenza, with hundreds, if not thousands of years of previous history among humans has.

 

And btw, your colourful numbers chart does not change the fact that we have had pandemics in the past with exactly the above death rate, such as the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Yes, it was over 500,000 dead, but life pretty much went on as normal. Does anyone still remember the 2009 pandemic? Not really.

 

Neither does the fact that asymptomatic people can spread Cov make this virus particularly worrisome. The same can be said of the flu, and many other viruses. You just read this on a website and regurgitate it as if it were fact. It is not.

 

In short, objectively, there is no real cause for concern, if you are not concerned by 500,000 deaths from influenza each year. Which none of us seemed to be until social media and media made poor impressionable souls such as yourself succumb to panic.

 

So kindly stop posting hysterical, factually inaccurate nonsense Wavehunter.

 

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by Logosone

[Dante99]

20 minutes ago, ebourquin said:

Appreciate the sensible updates. 

 

Just a few comments on comments. The population of NYC is ~8.5 million, so Wuhan is not twice the size. The air here in Chiang Mai is usually fine. I monitor it everyday. Somedays I wear a mask in Feb-April, some months certainly worse than other, but certainly not significantly worse than Bangkok on average.

Thanks for that info on NYC.  Surferboy gets enough facts wrong that he does not seem credible.

[Max69xl]

59 minutes ago, CMNightRider said:

I wonder if the Thai government is still happy they have been making it difficult for westerners to live in Thailand, while opening up the flood gates for the Chinese?   

The Chinese are tourists and when on VOA gets 15 days. Most of the westerners from Europe,the US and Canada gets 30 days Visa exempt free of charge. What are you complaining about? 

[XGM]

We were just notified by our kids' school (NIS) that it is being closed starting tomorrow until Feb. 10th.

 

How are other schools doing?

[samuttodd]

 

 

These videos show what appears to be the doors sprayfoamed shut in a chinese medical facility.     I have never seen this done anywhere before.

 

https://twitter.com/AbbeyMaeCook88/status/1222056575856070657

 

We have got incoming flights from Wuhan to BKK and San Fransisco right now. Given that flights were arriving and departing the Wuhan Int'l airport (and still are as of this message) I think it is pretty unrealistic to expect a different outcome in the US than China's.

Flights incoming to San Fransisco and Bkk as of today. Absurd.

In 2 weeks we'll know for certain, but knowing that people who are asymptomatic are actively shedding the virus to those not yet infected doesn't paint a pretty picture.

Allowing flights to land from the city where the outbreak is running wild will prove to be a poor method of controlling the outbreak.
About 80,000 people died in the US during the 2017-18 flu season from Influenza... I wonder if they are going to differentiate between Flu Deaths and Wuhan Virus deaths as far as official reporting #'s?

I wonder if they are now in China or how they could be? Since apparently they no longer have test kits available.

Edited January 28, 2020 by samuttodd

[Samuel Smith]

2 hours ago, WaveHunter said:

 

 

Personally I have yet to find buring season that bad.  I've been living here for over two years.  It varies from year to year so perhaps I've just been lucky.

Last year was the worst on record.  Were you in a coma?

[Bill97]

6 minutes ago, Samuel Smith said:

Last year was the worst on record.  Were you in a coma?

Delusional

[samuttodd]

http://aqicn.org/map/asia/

 

 

Some of the locations in the far East are well over 400 levels of 2.5 micron particulate which is downright Hazardous for your health.

 

The worst I ever experienced was 350 during the Forest fires in the Pac NW of the USA.   At that level,  visibility was down to just 300 meters.    The air was choking and difficult to breathe,  and it burned your eyes badly.  How people can survive levels above that is hard to imagine.

Edited January 28, 2020 by samuttodd

[WaveHunter]

1 hour ago, Logosone said:

With all due respect you should go back to your sources and try to understand them a bit better. You are posting a lot of hysteric nonsense.

 

For starters the main significant difference between SARS. MERS and influenza is that the latter has centuries of being adapted to spreading among humans, and continues to be the real killer among human populations. SARS and MERS originated among animals and are not adapted to spread among humans, hence the oh so hysterical SARS outbreak did not cause anywhere NEAR the infection rates, let alone absolute death figures of influenza. It simply failed to spread like influenza can. Deaths from  SARS were ca 800, from Influenza 500,000 EVERY YEAR. And the coronavirus, even allowing for the 95% underreporting in China, assuming the 100,000 cases of Read, given 100 deaths is exactly 100 times LESS deadly than SARS, let alone MERS.

 

So precisely BECAUSE there are significant differences between influenza and Cov, MERS and SARS the fact still remains that Influenza is far more deadly in absolute terms than Cov, MERS or SARS. 

 

Secondly, you seem a bit confused about the numbers. If you take YOUR OWN number, or rather the number from Read you quoted, of 100,000 estimated actual cases, then 100 deaths means the coronavirus has a death rate of 0.1%, Which is more or less exactly the same mortality rate as the common flu, or Influenza. With the crucial difference that Cov has not adapted to spread among humans yet, the way Influenza, with hundreds, if not thousands of years of previous history among humans has.

 

And btw, your colourful numbers chart does not change the fact that we have had pandemics in the past with exactly the above death rate, such as the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Yes, it was over 500,000 dead, but life pretty much went on as normal. Does anyone still remember the 2009 pandemic? Not really.

 

Neither does the fact that asymptomatic people can spread Cov make this virus particularly worrisome. The same can be said of the flu, and many other viruses. You just read this on a website and regurgitate it as if it were fact. It is not.

 

In short, objectively, there is no real cause for concern, if you are not concerned by 500,000 deaths from influenza each year. Which none of us seemed to be until social media and media made poor impressionable souls such as yourself succumb to panic.

 

So kindly stop posting hysterical, factually inaccurate nonsense Wavehunter.

 

 

I'm not really sure how you equate "hysterical, factually inaccurate nonsense" with what I stated in my post.  


 

Maybe I was not being clear but my posts are an indictment of how the Chinese authorities handled this whole mess.  It could have been avoided if action had been taken back in December when the first cases were reported.  Instead it was covered up and glossed over.  Scientists, doctors and journalist who did voice concerns were censored and even arrested by the CCP (ruling Communist Party of China).

And so, this is where we are now.  I say "we" because this is now a global issue, whether you care to admit it or not.

 

As of today, 28 January 2020 there were 4,474 confirmed cases of infection, of which 4,409 were within mainland China. Cases outside China, to date, were people who have either travelled from Wuhan, or were in direct contact with someone who travelled from the area.  The number of deaths was 107 as of 28 January 2020.  Human-to-human spread was confirmed in Guangdong, China, on 20 January 2020.


That makes the global mortality rate to be 2.3%...for a virus that did not affect humans a month ago!  By comparison, the mortality rate for seasonal influenza is below 1%!  That's a pretty significant difference!  While you downplay the significance of SARS, the mortality rate was over 10%.


 

As far as SARS outbreak goes, it was only the fact that the virus did not transmit before people developed symptoms that saved it from being far more pervasive and tragic than it was.



Unfortunately, we don't have that luck with the Wuhan coronavirus because the virus is infectious during the incubation period, according to Chinese researchers. 

 

That is a serious game-changer when you consider that people who are infected but showing no symptoms are capable of spreading the virus. 

 

It means that airport screening of people coming in from affected areas is totally useless since infected people are asymptomatic during the incubation period which can last up to 14 days after infection!

 

It also means that tools like quarantine and isolation — which were key to controlling SARS — are unlikely stop spread of a virus that can transmit during the period from infection to symptoms, experts say.


The present mortality rate of Wuhan coronavirus is not a static number since this is a whole new virus and could likely rise, especially if mutations occur, which often happen in novel viruses.


 

I am not being fearful in a hysterical way.  I am simply saying that the Chinese government handled this incredibly bad.  What could have been "nipped in the bud" so to speak, if early action had been taken back in early December when the first cases appeared is rapidly escalating to a point where many reputable researchers are growing increasingly concerned about effective containment.

 

Further, some researchers are estimating that the reproduction number for the virus is anywhere from 1.4 to as high as 5!  This means that anywhere from 1 to as many as 5 people can be infected for every established infection, and it has been established that the virus is able to transmit along a chain of at least 4 people.


 

I am not being hysterical, irresponsible or inaccurate in what I am saying but I'm not burying my head in the sand either.  I am not advocating that people move to a remote island or live in a sealed bubble.  What I am advocating is that those people in a position of authority, such as the Chinese government, place the welfare of the public above that of their party goals, which they clearly did not do in this situation until this became a crisis.


You do not believe this is a crisis it seems.  Well, try telling that to the families and loved ones of the 109 dead people, or the families and loved ones of the 4,474 people presently confirmed to have the virus worldwide.  It is ALWAYS a crisis when governments fail to act on their constituents behalf and allow something like this to take root.  It could have been avoided!  THAT is what I am saying.

Edited January 28, 2020 by WaveHunter

[samuttodd]

Now boys boys (Logosone and Wavehunter)  there is plenty of doom for everybody..... Simmer down.... ja yen yen.

Edited January 28, 2020 by samuttodd

[WaveHunter]

45 minutes ago, Samuel Smith said:

Last year was the worst on record.  Were you in a coma?

LOL...OK you got me. I was down south for a vacation from Chiang Mai in March and April.

Edited January 28, 2020 by WaveHunter

[pgrahmm]

1 hour ago, XGM said:

We were just notified by our kids' school (NIS) that it is being closed starting tomorrow until Feb. 10th.

 

How are other schools doing?

One in Uni & one in private school.....No word of closing....

Oldest daughter rode in songtou to visit home & was frightened as it had a group of Chinese in it....I drove her back and told her I'd get her back & forth for visits until this is over.....

Younger daughter's school sent home a precautionary note outlining good practices to help avoidance.....

We don't go touristy places, groups, food, etc.,unless we have visitors....

Hopefully, nothing can be transmitted by currency exchange or other common practices....

Edited January 28, 2020 by pgrahmm

[WaveHunter]

13 minutes ago, pgrahmm said:

One in Uni & one in private school.....No word of closing....

Oldest daughter rode in songtou to visit home & was frightened as it had a group of Chinese in it....I drove her back and told her I'd get her back & forth for visits until this is over.....

Younger daughter's school sent home a precautionary note outlining good practices to help avoidance.....

We don't go touristy unless we have visitors....

That's really sad to hear, but completely understandable how your daughter reacted.  The point of my posts is simply that this virus affects us ALL, and in all sorts of ways, and your daughter's reaction is just one example.

 

And worse, the scale of this could have been avoided if Chinese authorities had acted responsibly back in December when the first cases were reported.  Instead, as is often the case with the CCP, it was covered up and glossed over as "nothing to worry about". 

 

Also as is often the case in China, those scientists, doctors and journalists who voiced early concerns were censored, and some were even arrested.

 

Personally I love China and its' people.  I have visited often and think it is an amazing place, but things have got to change there when it comes to the government, specifically the CCP.  In many ways, it is as bad as it has ever been when it comes to how they treat their citizens, and their sense of responsibility to the global community.

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Logosone]

31 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

 

As of today, 28 January 2020 there were 4,474 confirmed cases of infection, of which 4,409 were within mainland China. Cases outside China, to date, were people who have either travelled from Wuhan, or were in direct contact with someone who travelled from the area.  The number of deaths was 107 as of 28 January 2020.  Human-to-human spread was confirmed in Guangdong, China, on 20 January 2020.


That makes the global mortality rate to be 2.3%...for a virus that did not affect humans a month ago!  By comparison, the mortality rate for seasonal influenza is below 1%!  That's a pretty significant difference!  While you downplay the significance of SARS, the mortality rate was over 10%.


 

 

No,  it does not make the global mortality rate 2.3%. As you rightly point out in the later part of your post scientists estimate that the actual number of infected people is much greater than China has stated, around 100,000. A mortality of around 100 would mean that the coronavirus has a mortality rate of about 0.1%, exactly the same as influenza.

 

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/how-new-wuhan-coronavirus-stacks-up-against-sars-mers

 

Indeed SARS had a mortality rate of 10%, but you forget that, crucially, it failed to spread among humans to the same degree as influenza.

 

The same goes for MERS. Like MERS and SARS the coronavirus originated among animals and is not yet adapted to spread among humans, something the influenza virus has done for many hundreds of years. Hence the much wider and consistent spreading of influenza. If influenza kills 500,000 people a year and you were not worried, why are you now worried about the coronavirus? It has the exact same mortality rate as influenza. I do not understand why you seem so concerned.

 

Yes, R naught estimates were as high as 5, but the accepted figure is now 3. Either way, these are all guesstimates about an unknown figure. A figure which can not be truly known until the pandemic is over.

 

Of course for those personally affected it's a crisis. Is it a crisis for me and you? No. What are the chances you and I will be personally affected? Slim to unknown. Not impossible, but very, very unlikely. Certainly not as likely as dying of influenza. By a long shot.

 

And btw, I don't believe the Chinese wanted to cover this up, all their actions point to the exact opposite. They're doing what they can. It is too early to know if their measures will have any effect or not. 

 

Either way, if you were not worried about 500,000 deaths each year from influenza, why worry about 100 deaths from a new animal flu mutation? It does not seem proportionate.

 

Anyway, that a virus is infectious during the incubation period is nothing new, it is just unusual for a respiratory disease. Yes it makes containment harder. But even the last real pandemic in 2009, well it had over 500,000 deaths, again flu, but the world carried on and most people don't even remember it now. 

 

This is a media and social media panic. Not a crisis, unless you are personally affected. It  c o u l d  cause a financial crisis if the social media and media panic continues to be spread, in spite of all the evidence.

[WaveHunter]

Some on this thread say I am overreacting in a hysterical way. 

 

Well, try telling that to the families and loved ones of the 109 people who have actually died from the virus, or the families and loved ones of the 4,474 people presently confirmed to have the virus worldwide. 

 

Try telling that the the 11 million residents of the city of Wuhan who are under military lockdown now and will soon face serious shortages of essential food, water and medical supplies. 

 

Try telling that to the 50 million residents of Hubei province who are presently quarantined.

 

You don't consider this a genuine crisis?  Really? Imagine if this wasn't just happening in China but happening where YOU live?  Would you consider it a crisis then? 

 

Do you really think there is not at least the potential for this very thing to happen where you live?  If you don't, I think you're living in a fool's paradise.

[samuttodd]

I am not certain how the lockdown is supposed to be effective when the Wuhan airport is still doing flights to San Fransisco and Bkk?    How does that work?

[Logosone]

 

 

Umm, but it's NOT happening where I live. 

 

Of course it's a crisis for anyone personally affected. The very vast majority of the world's population is not and most likely will not be.

 

There are around 100 deaths from Cov. There are 500,000 deaths from influenza EVERY year. And nobody bats an eye lid. 

 

Both influenza and Cov have a mortality rate of 0.1%. I like my odds here. Even more given that Cov is not adapted to spread among humans, being an animal flu, the way influenza is.

 

It's definitely not a crisis for me. I'm sorry if it is for you. It is not for the very vast majority of the population and is unlikely  to be. Not any more than influenza is anyway.

 

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by Logosone