A post containing some unapproved YouTube sources has been removed. 

 

An off topic post about road deaths has been removed. 

4 hours ago, Barefoot said:

Some people are dividing the number of deaths by the total number of infections and calling the result the "death rate."  Then, because the resultant number is low single digits, they think they will live even if they get the infection.  Maybe, but that method is dead wrong and it gives the wrong impression about a potentially deadly infection.

 

Someday when this is all over, it is fair to divide deaths by infections and call it a death rate, but not during the early stages of an epidemic because deaths lag several weeks behind the date they were first infected.  For the vast majority of the 2800 people who have been infected, most quite recently, nobody knows yet how many of them will live or die.

 

The only sensible thing at this point is to look at people in which the infection has completely run its course.  The infection runs its course in one of two ways.  Either you die, or you recover, meaning the virus is gone.  The last numbers I saw from yesterday were sobering:  there were 56 deaths and 90 recoveries. That's 38%.  For everyone else infected, it is yet to be determined if they will live or die.

 

The new death numbers came out as being 80 today but I have not seen the updated recovery numbers.  But this is something to watch.

 

The press and some governments are pushing the low death rate numbers -- which are not even correct -- that cause people to lower their guard and say "even if I catch it, I will probably live."  That is far from assured.  This thing is growing 40% per day.  Two more weeks at that rate and we have 275,000.   The real death rate figures are somewhere between 3% and 38% and nobody really knows how it will all shake out.  But this is certainly not "the flu."

An excellent point.

May I add additional morbidity factors will be as with all pandemics

Pre exisiting conditiions, which are more likley in the old 

How soon accurate diagnosis

Quality of care treatment

For those trying to alleviate accurate and timely  statistics and death certification

Regardless of cost there will become the issue of Medical supplies, sick staff and here in Thai social security, or lack of it cost.Minimum daily paid workers i.e most Thais cannot or will not erisk loss of job and or income by staying home unpaid.

 

At present self isolation looks preferable to queueuing up with lots of other sick people shown in the horrific scene at Hankow General Hospital

 

Having seen the sick on gurneys and the huge queues in most Thai public health centres In "normal" conditions I fear even a limited spread will severely strain the local health system.

 

 

 

7 minutes ago, RubbaJohnny said:

At present self isolation looks preferable to queueuing up with lots of other sick people shown in the horrific scene at Hankow General Hospital

I found this pretty informative:

 

4 hours ago, Barefoot said:

Some people are dividing the number of deaths by the total number of infections and calling the result the "death rate."  Then, because the resultant number is low single digits, they think they will live even if they get the infection.  Maybe, but that method is dead wrong and it gives the wrong impression about a potentially deadly infection.

 

Someday when this is all over, it is fair to divide deaths by infections and call it a death rate, but not during the early stages of an epidemic because deaths lag several weeks behind the date they were first infected.  For the vast majority of the 2800 people who have been infected, most quite recently, nobody knows yet how many of them will live or die.

 

The only sensible thing at this point is to look at people in which the infection has completely run its course.  The infection runs its course in one of two ways.  Either you die, or you recover, meaning the virus is gone.  The last numbers I saw from yesterday were sobering:  there were 56 deaths and 90 recoveries. That's 38%.  For everyone else infected, it is yet to be determined if they will live or die.

 

Exactly, you can't divide the number of deaths by the total number of cases while new cases stream into the hospital at an exponentially increasing rate. Like you say, one must consider cases with known outcomes, after the flow stops.

 

The best I have seen was a study of the first 41 confirmed cases whose outcomes were all known. In that study, 1/3 required ICU and/or life support and 5 died, which is a 12.2% death rate.  And that is a death rate based on an ICU available. I doubt that will be the case now with 1000s of suspected cases and overflowing hospitals. Many are being sent home.

7 minutes ago, rabas said:

Exactly, you can't divide the number of deaths by the total number of cases while new cases stream into the hospital at an exponentially increasing rate. Like you say, one must consider cases with known outcomes, after the flow stops.

 

The best I have seen was a study of the first 41 confirmed cases whose outcomes were all known. In that study, 1/3 required ICU and/or life support and 5 died, which is a 12.2% death rate.  And that is a death rate based on an ICU available. I doubt that will be the case now with 1000s of suspected cases and overflowing hospitals. Many are being sent home.

Yes, that study is available here:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

 

6 out of the first 41 patients died for a mortality rate of 14.6%.

Ironically mirrors the very title of this website many will die waiting for an improvement.

I suppose if LOS is quarantined no need for visa runners or will everyone be fined for overstay when the airports close as staff refuse to work in hazourdous proximity to infected frequent flee-ers.I may hang out in CZ or Bavaria, or is that the swiss role?

It's really noticeable just how prevalent the use of masks is here in Bangkok, even amongst the farangs, since this came into the spotlight. 

6 hours ago, Barefoot said:

Some people are dividing the number of deaths by the total number of infections and calling the result the "death rate."  Then, because the resultant number is low single digits, they think they will live even if they get the infection.  Maybe, but that method is dead wrong and it gives the wrong impression about a potentially deadly infection.

 

Someday when this is all over, it is fair to divide deaths by infections and call it a death rate, but not during the early stages of an epidemic because deaths lag several weeks behind the date they were first infected.  For the vast majority of the 2800 people who have been infected, most quite recently, nobody knows yet how many of them will live or die.

 

The only sensible thing at this point is to look at people in which the infection has completely run its course.  The infection runs its course in one of two ways.  Either you die, or you recover, meaning the virus is gone.  The last numbers I saw from yesterday were sobering:  there were 56 deaths and 90 recoveries. That's 38%.  For everyone else infected, it is yet to be determined if they will live or die.

 

The new death numbers came out as being 80 today but I have not seen the updated recovery numbers.  But this is something to watch.

 

The press and some governments are pushing the low death rate numbers -- which are not even correct -- that cause people to lower their guard and say "even if I catch it, I will probably live."  That is far from assured.  This thing is growing 40% per day.  Two more weeks at that rate and we have 275,000.   The real death rate figures are somewhere between 3% and 38% and nobody really knows how it will all shake out.  But this is certainly not "the flu."

Exactly! 

 

Looking at the current numbers: 

 

Infected: 2874

Critical Condition: 426

 

Assuming "Critical Condition" is not something good, that number, compared to total infected is pretty worrying.

 

 

 

Why thai people scare ?

 

When they drive car, they look like they want to kill themself,

they just trust Bouddha protect them,

so why for just a virus they can be scare ?

9 hours ago, Barefoot said:

You do realize the infection started in an illegal Chinese wet market and that 98% of the infected people are in mainland China?

RLR003527.tif 12.4 kB · 4 downloads

So what if this virus originated from China? The 1918 Spanish Flu virus originated from the United States. What about the HIV virus? How did the HIV virus arrive at Thailand? Definitely not from a local source or from China.

5 hours ago, apophyss said:

Why thai people scare ?

 

When they drive car, they look like they want to kill themself,

they just trust Bouddha protect them,

so why for just a virus they can be scare ?

The same reason some people are scared of flying but not driving a car. Flying, bar using a lift, is the safest form of travel. But in a car you feel as if you're in control. On a plane or when facing a virus we don't fully understand, we lose that feeling of control and that's what scares us.

 

When it comes to something like the corona virus, I would always err on the side of caution. 

For the record;

1. Thermoscans at airports are ineffective. The chief medical officer in Canada recently admitted that during the previous SARS crisis, that the scans achieved nothing, except provide assurance to the  general public.   

 

2. If the Chinese announcement is accurate, there will be a halt to new  visitors from China  because China has banned Chinese from   foreign tourism.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html 

 

3. The masks, and gloves being handed out will not help. The masks are not effective at blocking infection.  The manner in which the virus is transmitted is presumed to be through aerosol form, but it is becoming increasingly evident that contaminated objects can play a role. For example handrails or fingerprint pads used shortly after an infected person has used.

 

4. The fatality rate is now close to 5% and increasing. For reference purposes, seasonal flu has a fatality rate of less than 1%. MERS had a fatality rate of 35%.  There is no defined p susceptible demographic group at this time. The Spanish flu pandemic killed tens of millions, the majority of whom were young and healthy. MERS fatalities were skewed to older males with diabetes. Seasonal flu fatalities is drawn from infants, and the chroncially ill. 50%  of SARS fatalities was in the population  aged under 65, with those aged 45-64 representing 15% of fatalities.  The point being that it is too early to make conclusions, except to note that the disease is lethal and will have infected far more than is acknowledged.

 

5. The air pollution of Thailand will be a serious factor in the number of people who will die. This is because the air pollution  is already stressing the  respiratory system and has caused inflamation of tissue. people may not realize it, but there is ongoing damage. If a respiratory illness targets already damaged lungs, it will be game over for some.

A word of caution to those who have been looking for a reason to stop smoking/vaping.  Do it now, because smokers are starting with an additional disadvantage with damaged lung tissue.

 

You will know in about 15 days  how bad the situation is.  My advice is to avoid large gatherings and mainland Chinese tour groups during that time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Everyone wash your hands. That should do the trick.

On 1/27/2020 at 6:53 AM, sahibji said:

not so simple mate. 

I argee!!! 1 year visa holders meet the legal requirements to be in this country. We should be given freedom of movement just the same as Thai nationals and not have to report where we spend the night and when we return home. We didn't commit any crime and we are not on probation or under house arrest. the Thai government has more to fear from its own people with a political uprising than it ever has to fear from expats.

This government is well known for its own version of the truth, and no-one believes what they say. The Thai people aren't as stupid as the government would like them to be, and from what I can see, the Thai people are getting very tired of this form of government.

1 hour ago, geriatrickid said:

For the record;

1. Thermoscans at airports are ineffective. The chief medical officer in Canada recently admitted that during the previous SARS crisis, that the scans achieved nothing, except provide assurance to the  general public.   

 

2. If the Chinese announcement is accurate, there will be a halt to new  visitors from China  because China has banned Chinese from   foreign tourism.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html 

 

3. The masks, and gloves being handed out will not help. The masks are not effective at blocking infection.  The manner in which the virus is transmitted is presumed to be through aerosol form, but it is becoming increasingly evident that contaminated objects can play a role. For example handrails or fingerprint pads used shortly after an infected person has used.

 

4. The fatality rate is now close to 5% and increasing. For reference purposes, seasonal flu has a fatality rate of less than 1%. MERS had a fatality rate of 35%.  There is no defined p susceptible demographic group at this time. The Spanish flu pandemic killed tens of millions, the majority of whom were young and healthy. MERS fatalities were skewed to older males with diabetes. Seasonal flu fatalities is drawn from infants, and the chroncially ill. 50%  of SARS fatalities was in the population  aged under 65, with those aged 45-64 representing 15% of fatalities.  The point being that it is too early to make conclusions, except to note that the disease is lethal and will have infected far more than is acknowledged.

 

5. The air pollution of Thailand will be a serious factor in the number of people who will die. This is because the air pollution  is already stressing the  respiratory system and has caused inflamation of tissue. people may not realize it, but there is ongoing damage. If a respiratory illness targets already damaged lungs, it will be game over for some.

A word of caution to those who have been looking for a reason to stop smoking/vaping.  Do it now, because smokers are starting with an additional disadvantage with damaged lung tissue.

 

You will know in about 15 days  how bad the situation is.  My advice is to avoid large gatherings and mainland Chinese tour groups during that time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. They have not banned Chinese from Foreign tourism, they have banned 'Tour Groups'. Private bookers are still able to travel.

5. Are you a doctor?

 

Where are the cases that's what I want to know. I expect some are in Bangkok and would not be surprised if there are some in Nakhon Sawan as there is a large Thai/Chinese population but it would nice to know.

100 years ago Spanish Flu infected 500 million people around the world, its thought 50-100 million people died. The world wasn't as populated then and there wasn't the mass travel we have now. 

1 hour ago, Muppet2019 said:

100 years ago Spanish Flu infected 500 million people around the world, its thought 50-100 million people died. The world wasn't as populated then and there wasn't the mass travel we have now. 

Yes, the only thing to blame for global pandemics is modern transportation. Blame cars, buses, trains and planes for the ease and speed of spreading diseases around. Want to stop global pandemics from happening? Simply stop all international air travel for a month or two, which is unacceptable because of the huge economic losses. Many countries are staring at huge losses from China's ban on outbound tour groups, because one month's ban can amount to losing 10 million tourists. But if that's the price to stop a pandemic, then so be it.

10 hours ago, Selatan said:

The 1918 Spanish Flu virus originated from the United States.

I don't think China is/was part of the United States. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/1/140123-spanish-flu-1918-china-origins-pandemic-science-health/

1 hour ago, zydeco said:

I don't think China is/was part of the United States. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/1/140123-spanish-flu-1918-china-origins-pandemic-science-health/

Of course farangs must blame whatever on China. The simple fact that the Spanish Flu pandemic later spread from Europe to India and then to China was conveniently forgotten.

5 minutes ago, Selatan said:

Of course farangs must blame whatever on China. The simple fact that the Spanish Flu pandemic later spread from Europe to India and then to China was conveniently forgotten.

Didn't bother to read the (quite interesting) article then.

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Didn't bother to read the (quite interesting) article then.

Read already. You should read about how the second wave of the Spanish Flu in Europe was far more deadly than the first wave. What this suggests is that viruses mutate all the time and when conditions were ripe, such as a devastating war, a far more virulent strain can appear. The Spanish Flu virus was a H1N1 strain, a bit similar to the current H1N1 Swine Flu epidemic.

11 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Didn't bother to read the (quite interesting) article then.

You can download the original, here: https://booksc.xyz/s/?q=Paths+of+Infection%3A+The+First+World+War+and+the+Origins+of+the+1918+Influenza+Pandemic

One important lesson here:
 

Quote

Deadly second wave

 

American Expeditionary Force victims of the Spanish flu at U.S. Army Camp Hospital no. 45 in Aix-les-Bains, France, in 1918

The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much deadlier than the first. The first wave had resembled typical flu epidemics; those most at risk were the sick and elderly, while younger, healthier people recovered easily. By August, when the second wave began in France, Sierra Leone, and the United States,^[73] the virus had mutated to a much deadlier form. October 1918 was the deadliest month of the whole pandemic.^[74]

This increased severity has been attributed to the circumstances of the First World War.^[75] In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus. The second wave began, and the flu quickly spread around the world again. Consequently, during modern pandemics, health officials pay attention when the virus reaches places with social upheaval (looking for deadlier strains of the virus).^[76]

The fact that most of those who recovered from first-wave infections had become immune showed that it must have been the same strain of flu. This was most dramatically illustrated in Copenhagen, which escaped with a combined mortality rate of just 0.29% (0.02% in the first wave and 0.27% in the second wave) because of exposure to the less-lethal first wave.^[77] For the rest of the population, the second wave was far more deadly; the most vulnerable people were those like the soldiers in the trenches – young previously healthy adults.

Better hope the US ends all its silly wars around the world before a pandemic of some kind hits those war zones.

25 minutes ago, Selatan said:

Better hope the US ends all its silly wars around the world before a pandemic of some kind hits those war zones.

Or keeps their trenches a bit more hygienic ... umm wait as sec..

 

Yeah I get the point though.

12 hours ago, smutcakes said:

2. They have not banned Chinese from Foreign tourism, they have banned 'Tour Groups'. Private bookers are still able to travel.

5. Are you a doctor?

 

The majority of travel into Thailand from China is in the form of group travel.  Individual Chinese  travelers represent a small portion of the  57% of total Thai  visitors.

 

 

There are many types of doctors. One can have a  JD and insist on being called doctor. One can be an optometrist and be called doctor.  This may come as a surprise to you, but  being a "doctor" in itself does not bring special knowledge or expertise. Some people are more capable of managing  a response to a crisis than others despite their being a variance in academic certification. For example, in public health when there is an infectious disease crisis, a general MD is expected to defer to the lead scientist or case control officer even if that person is not a physician.

 

9 hours ago, Selatan said:

Of course farangs must blame whatever on China. The simple fact that the Spanish Flu pandemic later spread from Europe to India and then to China was conveniently forgotten.

wow. talk about revisionist history and a state of denial.

 

8 hours ago, Selatan said:

One important lesson here:
Better hope the US ends all its silly wars around the world before a pandemic of some kind hits those war zones.

This has nothing to do with the USA.  Almost  all of the world conflicts are resource or religious based. The strife in Africa is intra African turmoil, the ongoing conflict in Chechnya, in Yemen, in Libya has nothing to do with the USA. Nor does the conflict between pakistan and india.  However, what is at risk  are the ongoing wet markets  in China where the Chinese engage in unsanitary cruel  animal trade. The Chinese are not alone as Vietnam, laos, Korea and many African and latin American markets engage in the same activity.  Every where  humans engage in such acts are opportunities for deadly  diseases to arise. We have seen it with African bush meat practices bringing us Ebola and the like, and we have seen it with the  primitive agricultural methods of countries where pigs, and chickens are raised in close proximity to humans without effective public hygiene.  It is the USA, Canada and the EU which brings the solutions to the crises these other countries create.

6 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

The majority of travel into Thailand from China is in the form of group travel.  Individual Chinese  travelers represent a small portion of the  57% of total Thai  visitors.

 

 

There are many types of doctors. One can have a  JD and insist on being called doctor. One can be an optometrist and be called doctor.  This may come as a surprise to you, but  being a "doctor" in itself does not bring special knowledge or expertise. Some people are more capable of managing  a response to a crisis than others despite their being a variance in academic certification. For example, in public health when there is an infectious disease crisis, a general MD is expected to defer to the lead scientist or case control officer even if that person is not a physician.

 

wow. talk about revisionist history and a state of denial.

 

This has nothing to do with the USA.  Almost  all of the world conflicts are resource or religious based. The strife in Africa is intra African turmoil, the ongoing conflict in Chechnya, in Yemen, in Libya has nothing to do with the USA. Nor does the conflict between pakistan and india.  However, what is at risk  are the ongoing wet markets  in China where the Chinese engage in unsanitary cruel  animal trade. The Chinese are not alone as Vietnam, laos, Korea and many African and latin American markets engage in the same activity.  Every where  humans engage in such acts are opportunities for deadly  diseases to arise. We have seen it with African bush meat practices bringing us Ebola and the like, and we have seen it with the  primitive agricultural methods of countries where pigs, and chickens are raised in close proximity to humans without effective public hygiene.  It is the USA, Canada and the EU which brings the solutions to the crises these other countries create.

So what kind of doctor are you to state that " The air pollution of Thailand will be a serious factor in the number of people who will die" ?

9 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

The majority of travel into Thailand from China is in the form of group travel.  Individual Chinese  travelers represent a small portion of the  57% of total Thai  visitors.

 

 

There are many types of doctors. One can have a  JD and insist on being called doctor. One can be an optometrist and be called doctor.  This may come as a surprise to you, but  being a "doctor" in itself does not bring special knowledge or expertise. Some people are more capable of managing  a response to a crisis than others despite their being a variance in academic certification. For example, in public health when there is an infectious disease crisis, a general MD is expected to defer to the lead scientist or case control officer even if that person is not a physician.

 

wow. talk about revisionist history and a state of denial.

 

This has nothing to do with the USA.  Almost  all of the world conflicts are resource or religious based. The strife in Africa is intra African turmoil, the ongoing conflict in Chechnya, in Yemen, in Libya has nothing to do with the USA. Nor does the conflict between pakistan and india.  However, what is at risk  are the ongoing wet markets  in China where the Chinese engage in unsanitary cruel  animal trade. The Chinese are not alone as Vietnam, laos, Korea and many African and latin American markets engage in the same activity.  Every where  humans engage in such acts are opportunities for deadly  diseases to arise. We have seen it with African bush meat practices bringing us Ebola and the like, and we have seen it with the  primitive agricultural methods of countries where pigs, and chickens are raised in close proximity to humans without effective public hygiene.  It is the USA, Canada and the EU which brings the solutions to the crises these other countries create.

Ban all Chinese immediately 

The who have said of the top 20 cities in danger Bangkok is no 1, in the list is Phuket and Chiang Mae.