Let's buy real estate!

[Pravda]

A place to discuss any upcoming deals due to pandemic. 

 

Not a place to discuss if buying a condo or a house is a smart thing to do in Thailand. Of course it's not. 

 

This is a flipping thread with a 10 year horizon.

 

So.... any deals yet?

[Halfaboy]

Will follow with great interest....

[Peterw42]

I dont think there has been any drastic immediate change in the property market due to the pandemic. Thais are getting rent or mortgage assistance, westerners have no reason to sell. If people are dumping property etc, it wont be happening just yet, even if you have lost a job or a tenant, people would have missed maybe one monthly rent or mortgage payment so far, if any.

 

There may even be a downturn in supply of new-build condos on the horizon as developers put building on hold. 

[Pravda]

But there might be some direct deals from builders as some of them relied on Chinese to fill the demand.

[spidermike007]

The market in the US was already starting to drop in places like NYC and LA. It was getting much softer. Now? It is anyone's guess, but I would think there are going to be alot of desperate people, who need to raise cash, and would consider selling second homes, commercial space, or condos at distressed prices. Will take some time to see how this all shakes out, but it is my opinion that the economic fallout from the inane economic shutdown, is going to be 200 times worse than Covid itself, and the recovery "ramp up" will be long and excruciating. It will last week into 2021, for certain. And some industries may never come back, or will be a pale shadow of their former selves.

[PatOngo]

9 minutes ago, Pravda said:

But there might be some direct deals from builders as some of them relied on Chinese to fill the demand.

What makes you think the chinese won't be back eventually? Surely you don't think Covid19 will halt their aggressive expansionist policy, do you?

Edited April 10, 2020 by PatOngo

[ChipButty]

Wait until the banks have repossessed be some bargains then I think right now people would be thinking no point in putting up for sale as there is nobody here to buy

[NCC1701A]

you cannot compare the Thai real estate market to the west.

 

even during this pandemic.

[kwonitoy]

You'd be surprised how long Thais will sit on a piece of property, can't lower the price because of the face thing.

Many years ago, about 2005 I was looking at a condo on Jomtien that had been vacant for a very long time.

Went in with the agent and the place smelled moldy, dust built up everywhere, on the coffee table was a Bangkok Post newspaper from 1996.

[PatOngo]

2 minutes ago, kwonitoy said:

because of the face thing.

Face is not a thing, it's a culture, a tradition! A matter of life and death! 

[Peterw42]

17 minutes ago, Pravda said:

But there might be some direct deals from builders as some of them relied on Chinese to fill the demand.

The builders control the supply, if there is no demand, they just shut down supply.

Its an easy equation, if there will be nobody buying your condos for the next 6 months, stop building them.

It cost nothing to send the Burmese condo builders home and mothball a project. Most would be operating to some sort of formula, sell a certain percentage off the plan, then break ground etc.

[Enzian]

RE is always local. Where my interests are at in the Bay Area, things are soft in general, but it would take a near collapse for multi-family to soften much. I'd be interested in knowing if Thailand is a single market or many discrete markets; but I can't buy land, so why worry.

[Pravda]

9 minutes ago, kwonitoy said:

You'd be surprised how long Thais will sit on a piece of property, can't lower the price because of the face thing.

 

Yes. I know. And I would really like to avoid these discussions as I know from someone who owns a hotel near Sathorn Unique. When 1997 collapse happened most of Sathorn Unique customers were actually offered to give up their units at cost. Yes, they could have gotten all their money back, but they still decided to hold on to it.... even to this day and the building still looks the same as in 20 years ago,

 

However, there are a lot of condos in Bangkok and Pattaya. Some of them will have deals. I am certain.

[BritManToo]

42 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

Wait until the banks have repossessed be some bargains then I think right now people would be thinking no point in putting up for sale as there is nobody here to buy

Unlikely as banks aren't allowed to sell for less than the outstanding loan (usually 90%-95% or the original price).

[andytime]

Anything dependent on credit - here or in the west will fall or simply not be saleable.  All the banks have massive non performing loans and nobody is paying them back for the cars and condos they already loaned money on.  China has it's own set of financial problems and westerners retirement and travel plans have just been uprooted.  Do you really think all the orders are flowing in from the west now for China or Thailand? They can print money but you can't create demand and that is where we find ourselves now.  It is not exactly easy to open countries up again and employment levels globally will take many years to recover.  Expect some bargains.....

[baansgr]

1 hour ago, Peterw42 said:

The builders control the supply, if there is no demand, they just shut down supply.

Its an easy equation, if there will be nobody buying your condos for the next 6 months, stop building them.

It cost nothing to send the Burmese condo builders home and mothball a project. Most would be operating to some sort of formula, sell a certain percentage off the plan, then break ground etc.

Apart from interest payments on the loans they have for construction...some have borrowed 500 million Baht befor..

[FinickyFarang]

1 hour ago, Peterw42 said:

I dont think there has been any drastic immediate change in the property market due to the pandemic. Thais are getting rent or mortgage assistance, westerners have no reason to sell. If people are dumping property etc, it wont be happening just yet, even if you have lost a job or a tenant, people would have missed maybe one monthly rent or mortgage payment so far, if any.

 

There may even be a downturn in supply of new-build condos on the horizon as developers put building on hold. 

I dont think there has been any drastic immediate change in the property market due to the pandemic YET.

 

I think it's too early to really tell.  I see in the US, March still had some price increases in various markets even though unemployment is expected to jump to 30%.  

 

I don't think anybody has seen the worst of it yet in terms of economic impact so the telling part will in the months ahead.

 

I would suspect many Thais, already up to their eyeballs in debt, will start rethinking any rental properties or raw land they own.  Many business owners, especially those that rely heavily on tourism, will need to liquidate some real estate to help cushion the blow until things pick back up.  

[Peterw42]

22 minutes ago, FinickyFarang said:

I dont think there has been any drastic immediate change in the property market due to the pandemic YET.

 

I think it's too early to really tell.  I see in the US, March still had some price increases in various markets even though unemployment is expected to jump to 30%.  

 

I don't think anybody has seen the worst of it yet in terms of economic impact so the telling part will in the months ahead.

 

I would suspect many Thais, already up to their eyeballs in debt, will start rethinking any rental properties or raw land they own.  Many business owners, especially those that rely heavily on tourism, will need to liquidate some real estate to help cushion the blow until things pick back up.  

Yes, there will be some sort of fallout in the future. Dont forget that most Thai have put the mortgage on hold for the next 2-3 months, I imagine that will be extended if required.

[FinickyFarang]

30 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Yes, there will be some sort of fallout in the future. Dont forget that most Thai have put the mortgage on hold for the next 2-3 months, I imagine that will be extended if required.

Agreed, but eventually all of those program will expire and if business doesn't immediately pick back up, a lot of people may find themselves in need of some quick cash or at least to lower their monthly debt burden.  

 

I don't even want to know what the used car market will look like in a few months.  I'm imagining massive repos when the stimulus stops, the banks start asking for payments, and many people are still unemployed.  

[prb]

No bargain to buy a condo now.

Probably a lot of discounts to buy a business in Pattaya and the like.

But who is going to risk it? There is no discount without a reason.

Edited April 10, 2020 by prb

[deej]

20 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

I dont think there has been any drastic immediate change in the property market due to the pandemic. Thais are getting rent or mortgage assistance, westerners have no reason to sell. If people are dumping property etc, it wont be happening just yet, even if you have lost a job or a tenant, people would have missed maybe one monthly rent or mortgage payment so far, if any.

 

There may even be a downturn in supply of new-build condos on the horizon as developers put building on hold. 

From your post .

You certainly do not live in Chiangmai Province

Absoulately buyers / renters market in all tambons

with  very few buyers or renters ???? and now with Convid 19  kicking in .worse to follow.make no mistake about that????

 

 

[Peterw42]

8 minutes ago, deej said:

From your post .

You certainly do not live in Chiangmai Province

Absoulately buyers / renters market in all tambons

with  very few buyers or renters ???? and now with Convid 19  kicking in .worse to follow.make no mistake about that????

 

 

Yes, the market is different in various places. I am interested to know how you are measuring the state of the market ? Are you counting for sale/rent signs.

In my experience there isn't much data available to make any accurate judgement. Unless you are the buyer/seller or work at the land office, properties change hands and nobody knows about it. 

Often a couple of new for sale signs can be a case of gold fever, the house down the road finally sold for a high price, so 2-3 people in the street put a sign up hoping for the same. A large part of the visual market is passive sellers, they put a sign up with a stupid high price, if they get it great, if they dont it cost nothing to have a sign up.

For sale signs dont always mean there is a fire sale happening, 

[deej]

Many thks for your reply

Without going into a long boring discussion????

1/ Its simply no spare cash around up in these Neck  of the Woods .particular the high end of the market.

and the fortunate ones who have the cash are holding onto it like grim death????

2/There is huge over supply in both renting and selling propertys whether a house or condo

3/ The present govt are not helping matters either for reasons that are printed everyday

4/The propertys for sale are over valued by at least 20%

and the real estate agents still list them on their books

5/Now Covid 19 will enter the Market and a further price drop of 20 to 30 %to be expected

6/as for myself i sold a nice piece of  property 9 months ago at a very low price for a stack of good reasons

And without sounding a smart ass i would have to reduce the price i received by 25% to get a sale right now and might not attract a  buyer to boot

The Chiangmai Real Estate Market is currently a Dead Man Walking and worse to follow is my call

 

[Pravda]

Ideo O2 2 bedroom 3.99 - 1 million discount

 

 

https://www.ananda.co.th/en/condominium/ideo-o2?utm_source=Ananda Website&utm_medium=Ananda Website&utm_campaign=RTMOwnPage&utm_term=RTMOwnPage&utm_content=RTMOwnPage

[deej]

2 hours ago, Pravda said:

Ideo O2 2 bedroom 3.99 - 1 million discount

 

 

https://www.ananda.co.th/en/condominium/ideo-o2?utm_source=Ananda Website&utm_medium=Ananda Website&utm_campaign=RTMOwnPage&utm_term=RTMOwnPage&utm_content=RTMOwnPage

1 mil discount????

Its Covid 19 era

u know????

[Airalee]

6 hours ago, Pravda said:

Ideo O2 2 bedroom 3.99 - 1 million discount

 

 

https://www.ananda.co.th/en/condominium/ideo-o2?utm_source=Ananda Website&utm_medium=Ananda Website&utm_campaign=RTMOwnPage&utm_term=RTMOwnPage&utm_content=RTMOwnPage

Would have to have more information to really know it’s a deal....or even a true discount.

 

1.  Is it one of the 2br 1ba units or 2br 2ba units?
 

2.  What floor is it on?  
 

3.   What is the view?  Blocked/unblocked?

 

4.   What were the presale prices for similar units?

 

5.   How many units does the developer still hold?

 

Seeing that the developer is still selling 2 years after completion (2018) tells me that it’s not an exceptionally desirable building.  The fact that it is leftover stock also leads me to believe that it wasn’t one of the more desirable units either or else it would have already sold.   
 

Bangna is also far out.  I expect the prices in the suburbs/exurbs to drop more than prime locations (the same applies to specific units within a building)

 

I also see that there is a 24th floor (out of 34) unit for sale on hipflat with an asking price of 4.29m.

 

My personal opinion....that million baht discount is no deal. 
 

 

[Pravda]

2 hours ago, Airalee said:

I also see that there is a 24th floor (out of 34) unit for sale on hipflat with an asking price of 4.29m.

 

My personal opinion....that million baht discount is no deal. 

Yes, but from my experience developers always charge more than private sellers.

 

[scubascuba3]

The flippers who bought at the Edge, second road, Pattaya must be sweating now

[Fairynuff]

Haven’t we had this discussion before?

[scorecard]

On 4/10/2020 at 1:58 PM, Enzian said:

RE is always local. Where my interests are at in the Bay Area, things are soft in general, but it would take a near collapse for multi-family to soften much. I'd be interested in knowing if Thailand is a single market or many discrete markets; but I can't buy land, so why worry.

One point is that not many Thais buy second hand because there is no status value in second hand. On the flip side many Thais, once they own land, even a house lot have a firm policy of never ever sell your land. 

 

It is quite different to the west.