Covid19 - no need to panic - still

[chessman]

12 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

You can do the lockdown to slow the spread but you won't stop it as immunity is the only thing that will stop it regardless of Thailand's numbers if one believes or not the virus will do it's thing when the restrictions are removed all those without immunity will end up getting it anyway unless you spend the rest of one's like in lockdown.The info we get in Thailand comes from a repressive regime controlling the narrative,if you think those in control here have any empathy for anything other than controlling their vast wealth and the narrative then you are welcome to think that and I won't try and convince you that they will stop at nothing to achieve their goals.The flattening also drags out the duration into a long slow suffocating lock down and if the Thai numbers are to be believed the all this lockdown business will save the lives of about 15 elderly sick people over one month of lock downs 15 lives is about 1/3 of the daily road fatality.So maybe we should go into permanent lock down to save the lives of those road fatalities many of which are children and babies,do you have the same empathy for them? I'm sure you do but those in control of this lockdown don't they only did this lockdown to stop Thanathorn's support group. 

Please read what I wrote. This seems like a response to a different post. 

[johnnybangkok]

3 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

You can do the lockdown to slow the spread but you won't stop it as immunity is the only thing that will stop it regardless of Thailand's numbers if one believes or not the virus will do it's thing when the restrictions are removed all those without immunity will end up getting it anyway unless you spend the rest of one's like in lockdown.The info we get in Thailand comes from a repressive regime controlling the narrative,if you think those in control here have any empathy for anything other than controlling their vast wealth and the narrative then you are welcome to think that and I won't try and convince you that they will stop at nothing to achieve their goals.The flattening also drags out the duration into a long slow suffocating lock down and if the Thai numbers are to be believed the all this lockdown business will save the lives of about 15 elderly sick people over one month of lock downs 15 lives is about 1/3 of the daily road fatality.So maybe we should go into permanent lock down to save the lives of those road fatalities many of which are children and babies,do you have the same empathy for them? I'm sure you do but those in control of this lockdown don't they only did this lockdown to stop Thanathorn's support group. 

You are a big fan of false equivalencies aren't you? Again an easy rebuke; deaths on the road are not contageous, don't expand expodentially on a daily/weekly basis, aren't likely to put others who were not in the accident in danger and are not likely to expose the people who are trying to save their lives in danger.

And your numbers don't stack up either. 15 might be '1/3 of the daily road fatalities' right now but how do you know that's where it will stay? It might be the correct number now but what if that number in 6 months is 10 times the number of daily road fatalities? Would you change your opinion then? You can't say for sure if it will or won't so these are NOT useful anologies but they seem to get dragged out by right wing media and wronghly echoed by the likes of Trump on an almost daily basis.

  

[thaibeachlovers]

4 minutes ago, chessman said:

Herd immunity in Thailand. 40 million+ infected. Even if the Mortality rate is at the low end, that’s 200,000 dead, probably more.

 

if the virus is spreading uncontrollably I can at least understand the logic of it (though still would disagree), to think it is desirable in a country in which the spread has been controlled is just nuts.

 

That's an estimate. No one knows if it would be that many in reality. If the at risk were isolated, it should be a lot lower.

 

What is your estimation of those that will die because of the lockdown? Poverty kills too. Even if it doesn't kill, it destroys lives, increases crime and violence. Is that your preferred option? I think it is either lockdown/ poverty or herd immunity.

IMO herd immunity is the best option for the greatest number of people. I understand that for those that are directly affected by death it is a tragedy, but it's a question of the least of 2 bad situations. If it makes any difference, I would likely be among the casualties, but I don't think my life is more important than the many that will be ruined by lockdown.

[thaibeachlovers]

15 minutes ago, smutcakes said:

So many experts on 'Herd Immunity' when if you asked them 2 months ago they would have not a clue what you were even talking about..... (and they still don't)

LOL. I certainly understand it as a nurse. It's been mentioned on TVF a few times in the past.

[smutcakes]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

LOL. I certainly understand it as a nurse. It's been mentioned on TVF a few times in the past.

As a nurse i am sure you did. But your knowledge as a lowly nurse will be well behind the many renowned virologists and pandemic experts in this forum.

[johnnybangkok]

16 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I agree with your points with the exception of borders. Borders should be kept closed till the crisis is over. Resources can't be wasted on border control, except for trade. With VDO conferencing there is no need for people to travel for business.

 

When Germany started bombing London, Britain had legally passed parliamentary authority to impose a blackout.

 

Good of the masses, indeed. However the lockdowns will cause more harm to more of the masses than the virus if we were doing what Sweden has done. They have the sensible solution, IMO.

THAT is the real danger.

Isolate those at risk, keep social distancing, test and isolate, carry on.

 

When it's all over we will see if lockdown or the Swedish solution was the right way. I'm going with Sweden.

 

 

You have every right to your own opinion but you do not have the right to your own facts. The jury is still well and truly out on the 'Sewish experiment' and there are limited/zero facts to say either way. But although it's difficult to base an informed opinion on right now, it's not like Sweden is just the same as it's always been. They have already closed their borders, are isolating the elederly and 'at risk' individuals on a large scale, have conducted testing (and again isolating the infected) and although self-isolation is voluntary it is also widespread (sorry but no figures).

This idea that Sweden is exactly the same is a misnomer that poeple have to stop falling back on.  

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, chessman said:

My understanding is that flattening the curve is used when the disease is spreading exponentially and, as you said, it reduces the peak so healthcare can cope. Better than that though is never getting to the point where it increases exponentially! If you accept the Thai numbers then they managed to stop exponential growth.

 

so I think the Thai lockdown is not about flattening the curve, it is about preventing what has happened in Northern Italy or Madrid or New York from happening in Bangkok. I can understand why the Thai government was so cautious initially, but now the virus is (more or less) under control and we know the best way to fight it (testing, testing, testing!) I hope the restrictions will slowly start to be lifted. 

 

7 minutes ago, chessman said:

Please read what I wrote. This seems like a response to a different post. 

From what you said about the lockdown not being about flattening the curve but stopping what happened other places I would have thought the flattening of the curve is designed specifically to stop what has happened in those places.So I'm not sure what you mean precisely.

    The Thai numbers don't represent the actual number of infections as they openly say that they are not testing much for financial reasons which is fair enough so the actual numbers could easily see an exponential growth in infections similar to other countries.I'm no longer saying they are hiding the actual number of infections but merely taking a different approach which won't show an exponential increase though the exponential is there none the less.

[Logosone]

28 minutes ago, chessman said:

Herd immunity in Thailand. 40 million+ infected. Even if the Mortality rate is at the low end, that’s 200,000 dead, probably more.

 

if the virus is spreading uncontrollably I can at least understand the logic of it (though still would disagree), to think it is desirable in a country in which the spread has been controlled is just nuts.

 

It would be 138,000 dead, of which 94% would be in the 60-90 category.

 

Around 400,000 people die in Thailand each year.

 

https://pophealthmetrics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1478-7954-8-14

 

So the Covid deaths, in case of herd immunity, would be a little over 25% increase. A regrettable number for each person affected, but whether 400,000 or 538,000 die, life would and should go on.

[johnnybangkok]

21 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That's an estimate. No one knows if it would be that many in reality. If the at risk were isolated, it should be a lot lower.

 

What is your estimation of those that will die because of the lockdown? Poverty kills too. Even if it doesn't kill, it destroys lives, increases crime and violence. Is that your preferred option? I think it is either lockdown/ poverty or herd immunity.

IMO herd immunity is the best option for the greatest number of people. I understand that for those that are directly affected by death it is a tragedy, but it's a question of the least of 2 bad situations. If it makes any difference, I would likely be among the casualties, but I don't think my life is more important than the many that will be ruined by lockdown.

I'll give you my estimation of 'those that will die because of the lockdown' - zero. Nada. Zilch. With the exception of countries that are already experiencing famine and extreme poverty (which aren't the ones we are talking about), I don't think a single person is going to die of starvation from poverty due to Covid.

Also, herd immunity is based on a very tenuos proposition; that those who are infected cannot be infected again, but the BIG problem with that is we are already seeing previously infected getting re-infected again;-

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-immunity-reinfection/

 

And since you guys think all MSM are just fake news:-

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-south-korea-patients-test-postive-again-quarantine-release-covid-19 

 

I'm pleased you don't think your 'life is more important than the many that will be ruined by lockdown' and we will glady accept your sacrifice for money.

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by johnnybangkok

[bestie]

I guess that's the reason why the USA is so struggling with it. People are divided and the "right wing" is pushing their agenda forward by risking people life. They don't even care. On YouTube and even here in the forum. They have a complete different opinion of what "Freedom" means. It's pur egoism. I'm so tired to see pictures of "Life or die" "Is just a flu" or "Back to work". All these little naysayers are becoming online the smartest politicians. The reality is , they have blood on their hands. Jesus. America is really Fck up. I don't see such a mess in any other country right now. Maybe Aussies are following.? 

 

You right now looking at "only" 2k death per day in the US, if the US opens up again and go back to life like it was before you will looking up up to 3 Million Death only in America. Up to 300k death per day. If you want to risk your life it's ok it's your freedom. But don't come close to other people who want to protect their own life and the life of their family. 

 

I lost my hope that the US will ever "wake up" again from this Nonsense right wing BS agenda with all these little YouTube "stars" who are experts in everything. Give me a break. Please. These Guys are insane. I know the Virus comes from 5G and from the communist. Of course. Jesus. 

 

Yes, of course there will be a life coming after the virus. But in the meantime please stop to try to be an expert and give people false security. Get used to it how the "new normal" will look like. Everyone is suffering and struggling with it. ---- Sorry but I can't take these people anymore. 

[unsubscribe]

On 4/18/2020 at 6:43 PM, AussieBob18 said:

So of the 3711 Diamond Princess people, about 2700 were passengers – I will use 70% as over 65.
To compare the deaths rate to the total population I will add numbers so that there are 16,000 people (meaning 2700 becomes 16% of the total).
20% of deaths from flu are those under 65, so I will add 20% to the total deaths, and that now totals 16 deaths (+3).
But there are more people, so more would have been infected, and therefore more would have died – even though all the ‘new’ people are under 65.
The Covid deaths rate for under 65s is far less than over 65s (2 or 3 in Australia’s 81) I will add another 16 and double the total.
32 deaths of 15,000 people equals 0.2% - and I wager that will be close to the eventual numbers when they do have all the stats completed (in 2021).

I agree with what you said, and I hope the powers that be will start to open the world back up.

 

You can supplement the Diamond Princess stats (mostly elderly) with the USS T. Roosevelt outbreak (mostly young) to get an even better picture of the mildness of this disease.

 

In the T. Roosevelt outbreak, of the 600 testing positive, a whopping 60% show no symptoms. 

 

source: 

 

[Logosone]

15 minutes ago, johnnybangkok said:

The jury is still well and truly out on the 'Sewish experiment' and there are limited/zero facts to say either way. But although it's difficult to base an informed opinion on right now, it's not like Sweden is just the same as it's always been. They have already closed their borders, are isolating the elederly and 'at risk' individuals on a large scale, have conducted testing (and again isolating the infected) and although self-isolation is voluntary it is also widespread (sorry but no figures).

This idea that Sweden is exactly the same is a misnomer that poeple have to stop falling back on.  

The example of Sweden shows clearly that if a government leaves it up to their own people on whether to self-isolate chaos does not necessarily ensue.

 

It also shows that mortality rates are not of the catastrophic Hollywood proportion that people like Neil Ferguson had proposed, if social distancing is not made mandatory for the healthy.

 

We do have data for Sweden, it's not the case that there is zero data. And Sweden's data is certainly not worse than the UK's, where social distancing and lockdown is enforced hard.

 

And yes, there are less people on the streets in Sweden, but you can still go for a massage, go to a restaurant, go to a cafe, get a haircut, if you're so inclined, without presumptious mask nazis hassling you with hysteric fear in their eyes. Normal life is very much possible in Sweden, even if of course the virus had some impact (some people voluntarily stay at home).

[johnnybangkok]

3 minutes ago, bestie said:

I guess that's the reason why the USA is so struggling with it. People are divided and the "right wing" is pushing their agenda forward by risking people life. They don't even care. On YouTube and even here in the forum. They have a complete different opinion of what "Freedom" means. It's pur egoism. I'm so tired to see pictures of "Life or die" "Is just a flu" or "Back to work". All these little naysayers are becoming online the smartest politicians. The reality is , they have blood on their hands. Jesus. America is really Fck up. I don't see such a mess in any other country right now. Maybe Aussies are following.? 

 

You right now looking at "only" 2k death per day in the US, if the US opens up again and go back to life like it was before you will looking up up to 3 Million Death only in America. Up to 300k death per day. If you want to risk your life it's ok it's your freedom. But don't come close to other people who want to protect their own life and the life of their family. 

 

I lost my hope that the US will ever "wake up" again from this Nonsense right wing BS agenda with all these little YouTube "stars" who are experts in everything. Give me a break. Please. These Guys are insane. I know the Virus comes from 5G and from the communist. Of course. Jesus. 

 

Yes, of course there will be a life coming after the virus. But in the meantime please stop to try to be an expert and give people false security. Get used to it how the "new normal" will look like. Everyone is suffering and struggling with it. ---- Sorry but I can't take these people anymore. 

There's plenty of them here on TV, mindlessly regurgitating the latest 'update' from Fox or OANN or Rush Limbaugh. And the worst? Trump is backing them.

Whether it's 'LIBERATE MINNESOTA", "LIBERATE MICHIGAN" and then "LIBERATE VIRGINIA" (why is he always shouting on Twitter), the false narrative perpetuated by the US right wing media and Trump himself is astounding in it's ignorance and very dangerous for the American people.

Now is a time for facts and strong guidance, neither of which Trump is a fan of.  

[johnnybangkok]

Just now, Logosone said:

The example of Sweden shows clearly that if a government leaves it up to their own people on whether to self-isolate chaos does not necessarily ensue.

 

It also shows that mortality rates are not of the catastrophic Hollywood proportion that people like Neil Ferguson had proposed, if social distancing is not made mandatory for the healthy.

 

We do have data for Sweden, it's not the case that there is zero data. And Sweden's data is certainly not worse than the UK's, where social distancing and lockdown is enforced hard.

 

And yes, there are less people on the streets in Sweden, but you can still go for a massage, go to a restaurant, go to a cafe, get a haircut, if you're so inclined, without presumptious mask nazis hassling you with hysteric fear in their eyes. Normal life is very much possible in Sweden, even if of course the virus had some impact (some people voluntarily stay at home).

I think you've made your views on your beloved Sweden very clear. There really is no need to keep beating this drum.

[chessman]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That's an estimate. No one knows if it would be that many in reality. If the at risk were isolated, it should be a lot lower.

 

What is your estimation of those that will die because of the lockdown? Poverty kills too. Even if it doesn't kill, it destroys lives, increases crime and violence. Is that your preferred option? I think it is either lockdown/ poverty or herd immunity.

IMO herd immunity is the best option for the greatest number of people. I understand that for those that are directly affected by death it is a tragedy, but it's a question of the least of 2 bad situations. If it makes any difference, I would likely be among the casualties, but I don't think my life is more important than the many that will be ruined by lockdown.

I genuinely thinking you are misunderstanding herd immunity. It is usually used for vaccines. If you give a certain amount of people the vaccine, not everybody needs it.
 

It is generally accepted that you need 60ish+ percent of the population to have the vaccine (in this case the virus) for it to start working. Then it stops spreading because most of the people you meet also have the virus. In Thailand that is about 40 million people. 0.5% mortality rate (this is at the low end, most estimates are higher) would give you 200,000 dead. You can shield the vulnerable but it is very difficult, Sweden have the 11th highest death rate in the world because they have had a lot of deaths in care homes. Their policy was to shield those people but they couldn’t. The Swedish man in charge of their response often talks with regret about this. The Swedish government also strongly deny that herd immunity is their aim, even though on this forum and in the press their policies seem to be associated with it.

 

what is the alternative? I am not saying Thailand needs to continue the lockdown, it should begin to open up! As it does so, there will be more outbreaks but if there is good testing and contact tracing you can (hopefully) stop  these outbreaks becoming out of control. South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong seem to have the virus under control without severe lock downs or encouraging herd immunity. Sweden actually talk about their option being ‘lockdown lite’... that’s maybe a nicer term, A compromise between social distancing and keeping stuff open. 

 

remember herd immunity is basically letting the virus run free and wild. It’s a crazy idea in a country 
 

 

[Logosone]

15 minutes ago, bestie said:

You right now looking at "only" 2k death per day in the US, if the US opens up again and go back to life like it was before you will looking up up to 3 Million Death only in America. Up to 300k death per day. 

 

Lol, 3 million will die, what are you smoking? Even Neil Ferguson only predicted 2 million.

 

It's this kind of alarmist bs of course that shores up these ludicrous lockdown policies.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Logosone

[Skallywag]

7 minutes ago, bestie said:

Get used to it how the "new normal" will look like. Everyone is suffering and struggling with it.

Yet everyone is not "suffering and struggling" in the USA. Government workers are all "working" from home and getting paid. Congress, is the same, they have guaranteed income and paid health insurance from taxpayers.  They also have the money to have excellent food delivered by restaurants or grocery stores, and have large backyards to go out and garden,recreate, and swim.  And they are the ones we are supposed to trust to understand the "suffering" of others

[Logosone]

4 minutes ago, chessman said:

I genuinely thinking you are misunderstanding herd immunity. It is usually used for vaccines. If you give a certain amount of people the vaccine, not everybody needs it.
 

It is generally accepted that you need 60ish+ percent of the population to have the vaccine (in this case the virus) for it to start working. Then it stops spreading because most of the people you meet also have the virus. In Thailand that is about 40 million people. 0.5% mortality rate (this is at the low end, most estimates are higher) would give you 200,000 dead. You can shield the vulnerable but it is very difficult, Sweden have the 11th highest death rate in the world because they have had a lot of deaths in care homes. Their policy was to shield those people but they couldn’t. The Swedish man in charge of their response often talks with regret about this. The Swedish government also strongly deny that herd immunity is their aim, even though on this forum and in the press their policies seem to be associated with it.

 

what is the alternative? I am not saying Thailand needs to continue the lockdown, it should begin to open up! As it does so, there will be more outbreaks but if there is good testing and contact tracing you can (hopefully) stop  these outbreaks becoming out of control. South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong seem to have the virus under control without severe lock downs or encouraging herd immunity. Sweden actually talk about their option being ‘lockdown lite’... that’s maybe a nicer term, A compromise between social distancing and keeping stuff open. 

 

remember herd immunity is basically letting the virus run free and wild. It’s a crazy idea in a country 
 

 

Herd immunity, obviously, is possible without a vaccine.

 

And 0.5% is not the lowest estimate. The recent University of Bonn research by epidemiologist Henrik Streeck found a mortality of only 0.37% in one of the worst affected areas in Heinsberg, Germany.

 

If you do the figures accurately you get 138,000 not 200,000 dead.

 

The Swedish government also strongly deny that herd immunity is their aim, even though on this forum and in the press their policies seem to be associated with it.

 

No, they don't. 

 

"Sweden could have 'herd immunity' by next month, claims its infectious diseases chief amid as deaths stay low despite relaxed lockdown measures"

 

"Dr Tegnell has defended his limited interventions, telling The Mail on Sunday that he believed that Britain's lockdown had gone too far. He told the paper that Sweden was 'following' the UK's original approach of resisting lockdown, and was 'disappointed' by Britain's abrupt U-turn.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8233783/Sweden-herd-immunity-month-claims-infectious-diseases-chief.html

 

Sweden is exactly following the herd immunity approach the UK was too cowardly to see through but originally also considered.

[Clarkey611]

12 minutes ago, Logosone said:

It would be 138,000 dead, of which 94% would be in the 60-90 category.

 

Around 400,000 people die in Thailand each year.

 

https://pophealthmetrics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1478-7954-8-14

 

So the Covid deaths, in case of herd immunity, would be a little over 25% increase. A regrettable number for each person affected, but whether 400,000 or 538,000 die, life would and should go on.

I am surprised that no one is asking why Thailand has had so few cases of the virus SARS-CoV-2?

 

A review of the reports on the SARS epidemic from 2003 showed that the risk of contracting the virus was reduced when the ambient temperature was 26 deg. C and above. Most of the people in Thailand live at around or above this temperature. Areas with a potential higher risk of getting the virus will be where there is a high level of air conditioning in operation, such as modern Public Transport, large Stores, Convenience Stores and modern office blocks. No evidence has been provided yet, that transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus occurs outside in the "fresh" air. Long may the sun shine on Thailand!

[johnnybangkok]

6 minutes ago, Skallywag said:

Yet everyone is not "suffering and struggling" in the USA. Government workers are all "working" from home and getting paid. Congress, is the same, they have guaranteed income and paid health insurance from taxpayers.  They also have the money to have excellent food delivered by restaurants or grocery stores, and have large backyards to go out and garden,recreate, and swim.  And they are the ones we are supposed to trust to understand the "suffering" of others

Not all government workers are working from home. What about those deemed 'essential workers' which number into the millions?  

However I agree with the gist of your argument but rather than just point a finger at Congress, your argument can be extrapolated out to the haves and the have nots as this pandemic is already disproprtionately affecting the weak, the vulnerable and the poor and will continue to do so until someone in charge (and there's a laugh) takes proper control.   

[bestie]

11 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Lol, 3 million will die, what are you smoking? Even Neil Ferguson only predicted 2 million.

 

It's this kind of alarmist bs of course that shores up these ludicrous lockdown policies.

 

 

Simple Math:

 

How many People living in the US?

300 Million

 

Death rate : 1 %

 

If all 300 Million are becoming infected?

Make your own calculation - Of course you can make your own calculation with a higher mortality rate like 2 or 3 %. 

 

 

 

[Logosone]

14 minutes ago, Clarkey611 said:

I am surprised that no one is asking why Thailand has had so few cases of the virus SARS-CoV-2?

 

A review of the reports on the SARS epidemic from 2003 showed that the risk of contracting the virus was reduced when the ambient temperature was 26 deg. C and above. Most of the people in Thailand live at around or above this temperature. Areas with a potential higher risk of getting the virus will be where there is a high level of air conditioning in operation, such as modern Public Transport, large Stores, Convenience Stores and modern office blocks. No evidence has been provided yet, that transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus occurs outside in the "fresh" air. Long may the sun shine on Thailand!

The problem with this theory is that the MERS virus, a coronavirus, thrived in Saudi Arabia, where it is very hot indeed.

 

The jury is still out on whether heat affects the virus in such a way as to radically reduce transmision.

 

Much more likely is that in Thailand the low case and death numbers are explained by virtually no testing being done, either on the living or the dead. In other words their numbers are suspect, which is probably the case with China, Japan, South Korea and other Asian countries.

 

Having said that, a Spanish study has found that vitamin D shows good results when treating patients, so sunshine could well be a factor.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Logosone

[chessman]

31 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

From what you said about the lockdown not being about flattening the curve but stopping what happened other places I would have thought the flattening of the curve is designed specifically to stop what has happened in those places.So I'm not sure what you mean precisely.

‘Flattening the curve’ is usually used in a different context.

 

it refers to reducing the peak amount of cases so your health system is not overwhelmed. It’s important when a country has 1000s of cases but Thailand has so few official ones so it doesn’t seem relevant. If you have 30 new cases that won’t overwhelm your health service. I understand your concerns about the veracity of these numbers but think the government wouldn’t be able to hide it if hospitals were running out of icu beds. 

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

1 minute ago, bestie said:

Simple Math:

 

How many People living in the US?

300 Million

 

Death rate : 1 %

 

If all 300 Million are becoming infected?

Make your own calculation - Of course you can make your own calculation with a higher mortality rate like 2 or 3 %. 

 

 

 

Death rate cannot be calculated without knowing the actual number of infections and with many asymptomatic and mild cases not included in the numbers the death rate is a guess.Antibody testing of sample populations are indicating death rates of perhaps 0.2%.

[Logosone]

9 minutes ago, bestie said:

Simple Math:

 

How many People living in the US?

300 Million

 

Death rate : 1 %

 

If all 300 Million are becoming infected?

Make your own calculation - Of course you can make your own calculation with a higher mortality rate like 2 or 3 %. 

 

 

 

The death rate is not 1%, it is not 2% and certainly not 3%.

 

It is more likely in the 0.37-0.5% range.

 

Also your lineal infection model assumes a lineal spread, however, in reality most people interact with 5 or so people on a regular basis, so this lineal  transmission is a faulty model to use.

 

Your model also, like Neil Ferguson's, does not take into account the effect of mass testing and isolating the infected, and the US is now testing more than most other nations on earth, it does not take into account the possibility that SARS Cov2 could be seasonal, could be affected by temperature, and many other possible variables.

 

You, like Neil Ferguson, are finding that reality is too complex to model.

 

Also, you may want to ponder that Iceland, one of the few countries embarking on a program to test its entire population, has found that 0.8% of its population is infected.

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100

 

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Logosone

[chessman]

18 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Herd immunity, obviously, is possible without a vaccine.

 

And 0.5% is not the lowest estimate. The recent University of Bonn research by epidemiologist Henrik Streeck found a mortality of only 0.37% in one of the worst affected areas in Heinsberg, Germany.

 

If you do the figures accurately you get 138,000 not 200,000 dead.

 

The Swedish government also strongly deny that herd immunity is their aim, even though on this forum and in the press their policies seem to be associated with it.

 

No, they don't. 

 

"Sweden could have 'herd immunity' by next month, claims its infectious diseases chief amid as deaths stay low despite relaxed lockdown measures"

 

"Dr Tegnell has defended his limited interventions, telling The Mail on Sunday that he believed that Britain's lockdown had gone too far. He told the paper that Sweden was 'following' the UK's original approach of resisting lockdown, and was 'disappointed' by Britain's abrupt U-turn.

You can take the lowest figure (0.37%) from a new piece of research that hasn’t been peer reviewed or you can take the average of different studies. Which do you think is the best option? 0.5% is already a very low total, could easily be higher.

 

your two examples don’t state that Sweden has the aim of achieving herd Immunity. Meanwhile the foreign minister of Sweden,  Ann Lind, has consistently said that it is not the policy of the government.

“We do not have a strategy that aims at herd immunity at all,"

[bestie]

3 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Death rate cannot be calculated without knowing the actual number of infections and with many asymptomatic and mild cases not included in the numbers the death rate is a guess.Antibody testing of sample populations are indicating death rates of perhaps 0.2%.

Then please explain how you come up with a morality rate of 0,2, 0,37 or 0,5%

 

Even if you would estimated that 3 Million people have the virus already in the US the mortality rate would be 1,5 %

 

 

[Logosone]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

You can take the lowest figure (0.37%) from a new piece of research that hasn’t been peer reviewed or you can take the average of different studies. Which do you think is the best option? 0.5% is already a very low total, could easily be higher.

 

your two examples don’t state that Sweden has the aim of achieving herd Immunity. Meanwhile the foreign minister of Sweden,  Ann Lind, has consistently said that it is not the policy of the government.

“We do not have a strategy that aims at herd immunity at all,"

Yes, it could easily be higher than 0.5%, and it could also easily be a lot lower than 0.37%

 

Don't forget that Hendrik Streeck only used hard, confirmed numbers.

 

If we do freestyle modelling, they way you are doing, let's do this calculation. Take South Korea's number of cases, which are only the identified cases. Then times them by 20, since Sir Patrick Vallance has suggested a 10 to 20 times multiple. Then apply the death figures. You would get a figure of 0.1 %.

 

Yes, Ann Lind may say such things, for PR purposes, but you have seen the quote by Dr Tegnell, the man actually in charge of Sweden's response to the virus, and it is very clear indeed he is following a herd immunity response. Whatever Ann Lind says. 

 

 

[chessman]

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Yes, Ann Lind may say such things, for PR purposes, but you have seen the quote by Dr Tegnell, the man actually in charge of Sweden's response to the virus, and it is very clear indeed he is following a herd immunity response. Whatever Ann Lind says. 

He said herd immunity may happen in one area. Your quote doesn’t support your argument.

[Logosone]

7 minutes ago, bestie said:

Then please explain how you come up with a morality rate of 0,2, 0,37 or 0,5%

 

Even if you would estimated that 3 Million people have the virus already in the US the mortality rate would be 1,5 %

 

 

If I may be of help here, the 0.37% figure comes from an academic study in Germany by Prof Hendrik Streeck.

 

He found that in one of Germany's worst affected areas 15% were infected. Extrapolated to the US, that would be 164,000 deaths, not 3,000,000.

 

https://www.theblaze.com/news/german-study-shows-coronavirus-mortality-rate-five-times-lower-than-widely-reported-numbers