UK on track to become one of Europe's worst hit in COVID-19 pandemic

[Phulublub]

Menawhile, away from the political back and forth:

 

Data to 17^th April for England & Wales

Total weekly deaths.

 

 

 

Not really many words needed to describe that picture.

Two things though :

• There is still a sizeable gap between “deaths excluding” covid-19 and what would have been overwise expected.
• If the daily reports from the NHS are anything to go by, this (w/e 17-April) should prove to have been the worst week.  Hopefully not just "so far".

An alternative view is to look at the five year history with the normal winter spike in the middle.

 

What winter spike? You might ask, if one were to take out the dislocation of reports from week 52 (53) into week 1 you would be looking at “normality” being virtually a flat line compared with covid.

Let us not forget we are looking at the deaths for this year after massive mitigation efforts.

Deaths by age group

 

And there was  me thinking that Covid was only a problem for the older!

It is true that the vast majority of people dying of (with) Covid are older, but then the vast majority of all deaths occur amongst the older age group. The death toll amongst this younger cohort is still nearly double the normal expectation.

I don’t have the stats, but I would accept that probably the majority of these excess deaths are amongst those with “underlying health conditions”  - then again I would wager that a higher proportion of “ordinary” deaths in this age group also have underlying health issues.

These excess deaths mostly seem to happen in the 45-64 group rather than 44 or younger – no personal comfort in that for me!

The 2020 deaths excluding covid , do look as though they are tracking expectations – suggesting that the bulk of excess deaths in this age group are attributed to covid-19.

 

 

This graph is not actually much more dramatic than for the younger age group (deaths are up maybe 120% vs “expectation” as opposed to maybe up 80-90% for the younger group.

Here though there is a more significant number of excess deaths not attributed to covid-19.

Excess deaths not attributed to covid-19.

Comparison between the 5year average and the pre-covid 2020 run rate suggests that there were c. 2-2,500 excess deaths not attributed to covid.  That is somewhere near 20-25% of the excess deaths. There are I think three possible causes :

• Deaths as a result of diversion of NHS resources. There is a perception that some things are shut and some evidence that people staying away from other critical services – this is being addressed.
• Deaths as a result of lockdown. Increases in suicide, domestic abuse etc. This is a concern, but I do not see any evidence that this has had a material impact (yet) on fatalities.
• Deaths attributed to covid are being under-reported.

PH

(Largely cut and paste from a respected UK colleague who has close ties to NHS)

 

[Rimmer]

An off topic post also a trolling meme have been removed

[flossie35]

12 hours ago, CharlieH said:

This is not correct the article clearly states the care homes etc are included

 

" including a fast-rising toll in care homes"

 

Read the article again. The 20,000+ is hospitals only.

[stevenl]

8 minutes ago, flossie35 said:

Read the article again. The 20,000+ is hospitals only.

Not correct, "deaths from COVID-19 had already topped 20,000 by April 17, including a fast-rising toll in care homes". What is confusing is that now these numbers are only up to April 17, when about the same numbers have been released for later, but only for hospital deaths.

[Nigel Garvie]

13 hours ago, baansgr said:

Probably more to do with no inbound flight restrictions and tens of thousands of people from anywhere in the world arriving everyday without so much as a temperature check...UK has always like importing goods but that's taking it too far....not to mention all the lefty students haveing booze parties with cuddles galore plastered all over Facebook.

It's got plenty to do with late lockdown, herd immunity experiment, lack of PPE, and as you correctly say no inbound flight restrictions. Like most things in life it is not simple, and there are many contributing factors. 

Sadly your otherwise good post is made pointless when you sink into your tired obsession with those awful "Lefties". So these students are all lefties then. Righty students don't booze, have parties, or have cuddles then. Was your post tongue in cheek at all, or do you have a problem with young people. Strangely enough a huge number students are not interested in politics at all, they want to work hard and get a degree.

APOLOGIES,...... I'll let this stand but I realise that posts on the previous page (Which I missed) have covered the topic well already.

Edited April 29, 2020 by Nigel Garvie
Repetition

[Chomper Higgot]

24 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Not correct, "deaths from COVID-19 had already topped 20,000 by April 17, including a fast-rising toll in care homes". What is confusing is that now these numbers are only up to April 17, when about the same numbers have been released for later, but only for hospital deaths.

From the OP:

 

“According to figures released by the health ministry on Monday, 21,092 people had died in hospitals across the United Kingdom after testing positive for COVID-19.”

 

Also refer my post at #30.

[Nigel Garvie]

50 minutes ago, Phulublub said:

Menawhile, away from the political back and forth:

 

Data to 17^th April for England & Wales

Total weekly deaths.

 

 

 

Not really many words needed to describe that picture.

Two things though :

• There is still a sizeable gap between “deaths excluding” covid-19 and what would have been overwise expected.
• If the daily reports from the NHS are anything to go by, this (w/e 17-April) should prove to have been the worst week.  Hopefully not just "so far".

An alternative view is to look at the five year history with the normal winter spike in the middle.

 

What winter spike? You might ask, if one were to take out the dislocation of reports from week 52 (53) into week 1 you would be looking at “normality” being virtually a flat line compared with covid.

Let us not forget we are looking at the deaths for this year after massive mitigation efforts.

Deaths by age group

 

And there was  me thinking that Covid was only a problem for the older!

It is true that the vast majority of people dying of (with) Covid are older, but then the vast majority of all deaths occur amongst the older age group. The death toll amongst this younger cohort is still nearly double the normal expectation.

 

Some parts sniped out.

Thank you, at last an analysis that is not politicised, and more importantly numerate and literate. It has laid a few common misconceptions to rest, particularly those that claim it is all part of the normal picture. The large number of deaths under 64 surprised me also, but correctly the older deaths can only be compared with what is already normal in that group.

 

I tired of reading stats when it is clear the writer doesn't understand statistics - so many of them.

[George Aylesham]

2 hours ago, samran said:

He actually might have a point. When I was at uni the kids who identified as conservatives had no social life and never managed get laid given their stellar personalities.
 

Social isolation is a perpetual feature of their lives. Covid or no covid.

Sorry - they all got their onions from the girls in the Young Conservative clubs.

[stevenl]

16 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

From the OP:

 

“According to figures released by the health ministry on Monday, 21,092 people had died in hospitals across the United Kingdom after testing positive for COVID-19.”

 

Also refer my post at #30.

Yes, that's what confusing, they're throwing around numbers for hospital deaths up until recently, and numbers for combined deaths till April 17.

[Gilltom]

13 hours ago, baansgr said:

Probably more to do with no inbound flight restrictions and tens of thousands of people from anywhere in the world arriving everyday without so much as a temperature check...UK has always like importing goods but that's taking it too far....not to mention all the lefty students haveing booze parties with cuddles galore plastered all over Facebook.

Too late on everything.wouldn't mind they had Italy as a example .other countries couldn't believe why uk took so long was it a lazy government or stupid 

[Chomper Higgot]

12 minutes ago, Gilltom said:

Too late on everything.wouldn't mind they had Italy as a example .other countries couldn't believe why uk took so long was it a lazy government or stupid 

It was not laziness, it was a deliberate policy to perform a herd immunity experiment.

[spiekerjozef]

Thanks Boris.

Please don't blame brexit.

[Nigel Garvie]

4 minutes ago, hotandsticky said:

 

 

They obviously went wrong in not seeking your advice - rather than the scientific experts.

 

Then again they probably have enough smart ar5es who have the benefit of hindsight.

They did indeed have the benefit of scientific advice and failed to respond promptly. Many people who support this government are fortunately not so brainwashed that they can't see what happened. They know that even if you support someone it doesn't make them perfect. 

 

Meanwhile we find that Lord Sauron's deputy on earth D. Cummings is attending, and speaking at SAGE meetings. It is outrageous. The scientists should stifle him and use him as a guinea pig.

[Rookiescot]

6 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

It was not laziness, it was a deliberate policy to perform a herd immunity experiment.

And to try and protect the economy. 

[billd766]

14 hours ago, stevenl said:

EU has nothing to do with this.

I'm sorry.

 

I misread Europe as the EU.

 

14 hours ago, Phulublub said:

One of us is misreading this....the UK may be leaving the EU, it will remain as part of Europe.

 

The bigger - and much more important error is that UK recorded covid deaths at 20,000+ are ONLY those who die in hospital.  All those in Care Homes and the wdier community are not (yet) included.

 

PH

 

Sorry, my bad

 

It was me misreading Europe as the EU.

 

[Sujo]

Well done new zealand. They had complete lockdown and have beaten the virus and are opening up.

 

Those pesky kiwis do it again. Always ahead.

[sawadee1947]

That's indeed horrible figures. 

However I wonder that nobody asks WHY???? 

There are a lot of reasons for it as

1. A stupid PM, not capable to      manage UK

2. No money for NHS

3. Sent nurses and doctors back their home country

are there more reasons? ????

[Rimmer]

Troll post removed

[yogi100]

The reason the UK has been so badly affected by CV 19 is because it has one of the highest, if not the highest density of populations in Europe. England has by far the largest population of the nations who make up the UK and of those nations England has also been the most affected by the virus.

 

From the U.K. Population (2020) - Worldometer 

 

"England has become the most crowded major nation in Europe, official figures have revealed. The number of people living in England has overtaken the population density of Holland, which has traditionally been the most densely-populated major nation on the continent"

 

Thanks solely to its totally irresponsible immigration policies over the last 70 years.

[VocalNeal]

27 minutes ago, yogi100 said:

Thanks solely to its totally irresponsible immigration policies over the last 70 years.

England/UK has always had open immigration policy dating back to Victorian times or before. 

 

Welcoming not irresponsible. 

Edited April 29, 2020 by VocalNeal

[chilly07]

Herd immunity, foot and mouth, all indicative of Tories propensity to cull. Good job Jabba the hut and Darth Vader got Covid as otherwise we'll all be for the chop!

[Surelynot]

PLEASE PLEASE WATCH! YOU WILL NOT SEE THESE DETAILS WATCHING THE GOVERNMENT BRIEFINGS

[stevenl]

17 minutes ago, yogi100 said:

The reason the UK has been so badly affected by CV 19 is because it has one of the highest, if not the highest density of populations in Europe. England has by far the largest population of the nations who make up the UK and of those nations England has also been the most affected by the virus.

 

From the U.K. Population (2020) - Worldometer 

 

"England has become the most crowded major nation in Europe, official figures have revealed. The number of people living in England has overtaken the population density of Holland, which has traditionally been the most densely-populated major nation on the continent"

 

Thanks solely to its totally irresponsible immigration policies over the last 70 years.

Ignoring your last paragraph, your opinion without any support, the rest of your argument could be correct. If so, there should be much higher infection rate in London, Birmingham etc than outside of the cities. You have any numbers to support your contention?

[Chomper Higgot]

22 minutes ago, yogi100 said:

The reason the UK has been so badly affected by CV 19 is because it has one of the highest, if not the highest density of populations in Europe. England has by far the largest population of the nations who make up the UK and of those nations England has also been the most affected by the virus.

 

From the U.K. Population (2020) - Worldometer 

 

"England has become the most crowded major nation in Europe, official figures have revealed. The number of people living in England has overtaken the population density of Holland, which has traditionally been the most densely-populated major nation on the continent"

 

Thanks solely to its totally irresponsible immigration policies over the last 70 years.

 

Where do you get this nonsense?

 

"England has become the most crowded major nation in Europe, official figures have revealed. The number of people living in England has overtaken the population density of Holland, which has traditionally been the most densely-populated major nation on the continent"

 

From your own link the population of the UK is 67,825,469, the area of England is 130,279Km2. 

 

For England to get close to the population density of the Netherlands the whole population of the UK would have to move to England and even that would be short of your claimed population density. 

 

Please at least check and understand the numbers you are re-posting from goodness knows where before reposting here. 

 

 

Monaco	18,960	2.02	38,300
Gibraltar (UK)	5,011	6.7	33,573
Vatican City	2,273	0.44	1,000
Malta	1,505	316	475,701
Guernsey (UK)	955	65	62,063
Jersey (UK)	893	118.2	105,500
San Marino	546	61.2	33,403
Netherlands	521	33,481	17,424,978
Turkey (European part)	473	23,764	11,241,000
England (UK)	424	130,279	55,619,400

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Area_and_population_of_European_countries

 

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Chomper Higgot

[VocalNeal]

During WWII US service men destined for stationing in UK as part of their indoctrination were told that "Britain" is very densely populated. 

 

This is not news.

[Jonnapat]

Unsurprisingly,  considering the slow reaction.

On a par with the US for poor preparations.

[Chomper Higgot]

4 minutes ago, Jonnapat said:

Unsurprisingly,  considering the slow reaction.

On a par with the US for poor preparations.

It was not a slow reaction, it was a deliberate policy to allow the virus to spread in the UK.

[Baerboxer]

16 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

A direct consequence of allowing the virus to spread in a callous herd immunity experiment.

 

Would never have been allowed in a socialist people's republic. Just look at how well North Korea and Venezuela are doing. 

 

Power to the people!

[Mavideol]

19 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

UK on track to become one of Europe's worst hit in COVID-19 pandemic

and they have to thank BJ for his early poor decisions of not blocking out the country and follow his private counsel ""cummings"" by trying  the erd immunity process.... obviously it didn't work out and that's very sad for the ones who died and their families as well.

[Baerboxer]

Just now, Mavideol said:

and they have to thank BJ for his early poor decisions of not blocking out the country and follow his private counsel ""cummings"" by trying  the erd immunity process.... obviously it didn't work out and that's very sad for the ones who died and their families as well.

 

Yes, because those two completely ignored all the advice from WHO, UK medical and science experts. 

 

And unlike you, they aren't blessed with the gift of hindsight!