So, has anyone seen IFR numbers?

[chessman]

1 minute ago, CGW said:

Do you ever read what you write? you don't make assumptions, you leap onto them!

You do like to tell people what to think don't you, go on - be wild - reread your posts, even you would have to agree

Haha, and you insult people instead of taking them on with evidence or logic.

[tlock]

36 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

This might be hard for people prone to conspiratorial beliefs to comprehend, but there are backdoor ways to measure the impact of CV-19.

 

Deaths tend to occur in a regular pattern, Statistical analysis can tell you when the pattern is behaving differently. The data show that CV-19 has juiced the normal rate of death in the US and in many other countries in the world. These deaths have occurred even with social distancing and sheltering in place, so they take on added significance and import. Had no measures been put in place, one can only guess how high the death toll might have been.

 

It will only be after the fact that the true death rate from CV-19 will be known, but every indication is that it is a significant multiple of the death rate from typical flu, is more contagious, has a host of unusual effects that impact even those with healthy immune systems, and unlike regular flu, SARS and MERS, is easily passed by people who are non-symptomatic.

 

It is rather foolish to think the combined govts of the entire planet got together and decided "Hey, let's inconvenience our citizens, hobble our GDP, and juice unemployment just to see how everybody reacts".

 

I do agree that excess deaths are a good indicator.

 

I think excess deaths in Sweden vs. excess deaths in places that imposed stricter lockdown is a reasonable indicator of the effectiveness of social distancing and sheltering (not sure where to find those statistics?)

 

I think that excess deaths over the coming years AFTER the pandemic is over will be a good indicator of the long term damage of the crippling of the economy.  Those excess deaths would need to be based on current projections rather than revised projections, since projections will be revised due to the economic conditions the lockdowns are bringing about.

 

[CGW]

9 minutes ago, chessman said:

Haha, and you insult people instead of taking them on with evidence or logic.

Insult? have you taken your medication today? you need to learn to proof read!

Have a nice day! ???? 

[shy coconut]

1 hour ago, CGW said:

Snopes, they were busted long ago as being "unreliable! 

Who busted them? 

 

That looks like the kind of childish name calling from the oval office.

[chessman]

11 minutes ago, tlock said:

I think excess deaths in Sweden vs. excess deaths in places that imposed stricter lockdown is a reasonable indicator of the effectiveness of social distancing and sheltering (not sure where to find those statistics?)

The New York Times and Financial Times have been publishing a lot of data on this.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c
 

it seems the data is limited to what countries make available, we have figures for many European countries but I haven’t seen anything for Thailand, for example.

 

 

[CGW]

9 hours ago, Walker88 said:

rather than absorbing nonsense from the Dark Web or QAnon or other places I find of questionable veracity and sagacity.

Could you share where you get your irrefutable "news" from I'm struggling?

Thank you ???? 

[steelepulse]

According to two studies from USC and Stanford, IFR is 0.1%-0.2%

 

>>University of Southern California  • 863 people were tested • 4.1% of the group had antibodies to the virus  Stanford University  • 3300 people were tested  • 2.4 - 4.2% of the group had antibodies to the virus  The infection rate was thought to be 7994 when in actuality, it was between 220,000 and 442,000. These are people that already had the infection, recovered, and now have antibodies. 

 

 

[mauGR1]

On 5/9/2020 at 1:23 PM, chessman said:

But for every death that is wrongly attributed to COVID there are probably a lot more that happen at private homes or in nursing homes that are not attributed.

Nice try, but that's just totally unfounded speculation.

[chessman]

15 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Nice try, but that's just totally unfounded speculation.

It’s a bit more than that. It’s looking at initial data on excess deaths... in most places where they are available they show a lot more extra deaths, more than can be accounted for by reported COvid deaths.

 

and also looking historically at how virus deaths are counted. They are always adjusted up after mortality data is analysed.

 

I would actually go further and say this is one of the few things we can be absolutely certain about. 

[mauGR1]

2 minutes ago, chessman said:

It’s a bit more than that. It’s looking at initial data on excess deaths... in most places where they are available they show a lot more extra deaths, more than can be accounted for by reported COvid deaths.

 

and also looking historically at how virus deaths are counted. They are always adjusted up after mortality data is analysed.

 

I would actually go further and say this is one of the few things we can be absolutely certain about. 

No, with your last affirmation you've lost any credibility to me.

"we can be absolutely certain about" LOL

 

[chessman]

2 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

No, with your last affirmation you've lost any credibility to me.

"we can be absolutely certain about" LOL

Currently, of closed reported COVID cases, 16% have died. I am absolutely certain that the mortality rate is significantly lower than that, as I am sure you are. As I am sure anyone who spent 10 minutes reading about this virus would be.
 

so we can be certain about some things, right? 
 

all evidence also points to the number of dead being significantly higher than what is being reported.. there’s no point putting our head in the sand about uncomfortable truths.