Poor exchange rates

[Steve Vincent]

Today we live in uncertain times with the u.s dollar in free fall along with sterling and other currencies around the world,.yet the Thai baht remains as strong as ever ! Current accounts are holding the baht strong according to several reports. Yet tourism and trade are struggling - went into several exchange booths earlier today sterling 38.10 with Thai exchange in ubon and the best being 38.80 with twelve victory / shopping mall. I’m confused and disappointed when i change my money of late and don’t understand why the baht has gathered momentum. Clearly the trade war between China and the u.s has played a huge part in this and if things don’t change i cannot see myself living comfortably as i once did here in Thailand or maybe it’s time for change. Maybe I need to move my family back to the u.k until the exchange rates return to some normality,.Would be interested in hearing from people who understand the markets to explain why this is happening when the rest of the world is struggling,. Kind regards Steve V

Edited May 15, 2020 by CharlieH
format corrected

[CharlieH]

MOVED to Finance forum

[worgeordie]

Super Rich exchange Bangkok was offering 39 THb = £1, they usually offer

the best rates, so 38.80 was not bad, depending how much you

changed.

regards Worgeordie

[Pib]

OP,

  Free fall of the US dollar you say....don't know why you say that....take a look at below 10 year chart for USD-THB....been hanging a little below and above 32 baht per dollar in slow oscillations---no free fall.

 

  Now the GBP-THB rate has experienced a slow, long term downward trend since the BREXIT referendum in June 2016, but that is a UK self-inflicted currency exchange event; not THB strength.

 

USD-THB

 

 

GBP-THB....stable up until the Jun 2016 BREXIT referendum

 

[Swiss1960]

CHF going down against THB over the last weeks because of massive interventions by the Swiss National Bank who thinks the Swiss Franc is to strong and hurting our economy, but with 34.2 still much higher than around 5 months ago with 30.2 or 1y ago with 31.3

 

Euro today 34.7, 5m ago low at 33.1 and 1y ago at 35.4

 

As @Pib said, no free falls except steady decline of your Brexit money, but maybe you should also check your spending ????

[Steve Vincent]

Thanks for reply’s guys,. appreciate Brexit been a major financial headache for many and I’m sure it will get worse before it gets better.Maybe a slight exaggeration regards to the dollar plummeting but then it’s been in free fall with the pound for time - today’s rate 1.22 good old days 2 dollars to the pound well and truly gone.

-

suppose i was spoilt when first arriving in Thailand 72 baht to £ back then was a partygoer and just lived life to the max. Today still enjoy life and love Thailand especially since moving to ubon which is laid back with friendly people and less bars ( only couple ) unlike pattaya and Bangkok ... ringing the bell & drinking the bar dry ( sound like a alcoholic ????????  suppose the good old days are over,. But i wouldn’t change anything as love my Thai family and the people I’ve become friends with... now that is priceless regardless of the exchange rates. Enjoy guys and stay safe ???????? 

[Pib]

11 minutes ago, Steve Vincent said:

Maybe a slight exaggeration regards to the dollar plummeting but then it’s been in free fall with the pound for time - today’s rate 1.22 good old days 2 dollars to the pound well and truly gone.

 

 

You've got the free fall reversed...you mean to say the pound has been in free fall against the US dollar....it been the GBP loosing value against many currencies....getting less dollars per GBP.   And actually not a free fall, just a steady decline over the last 10 years.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Pib

[Kwasaki]

4 hours ago, Steve Vincent said:

Maybe I need to move my family back to the u.k until the exchange rates return to some normality,.Would be interested in hearing from people who understand the markets to explain why this is happening when the rest of the world is struggling,.

Don't understand markets other than my conspiracy theory is that Thailand will fix it's own rates to whatever they deem the country in question worthy of in their mindset.

I don't know your situation but the last thing I would do is go back to the the UK at my age because without any doubt I would not be able to afford to come back again.

Living here is much affordable. 

[Pilotman]

I don't have an answer to any of this, any more than anyone else has. but I am fairly sure of one thing. With western countries trashing their economies, these present exchange rates may only be the beginning of something far worse. The stupidly short sighted reaction and  political decisions made over Covid 19 are going to make us all a good deal poorer, bar China and its close friends, Thailand included and there is no recovery from this in my life time, nor probably in the life time of anyone on this forum. Expect the UK Pound to Baht to hit 28 or 30  before any kind of  stabilisation.   Our western so called 'leaders' have been tested and unsurprisingly, have been found wanting.  

[Isaan sailor]

USD has lost over 100 Satang to the Baht, in just over four weeks--that's over 3%.  Thailand shoots themselves in the foot again.  Exports will have no chance, and the nascent tourist recovery will underwhelm. 

[sitti]

16 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

USD has lost over 100 Satang to the Baht, in just over four weeks--that's over 3%.  Thailand shoots themselves in the foot again.  Exports will have no chance, and the nascent tourist recovery will underwhelm. 

instead of blaming Thailand when currency exchange doesn't work in your favor, perhaps you should tell US to stop printing money every time they ran out of cash.

[Laza 45]

Transferwise rate at the moment is 38.545 for UK pound..  31.677 for $US..

Probably as good as you can get at the moment...

[Henryford]

Western countries are printing $trillions to cope with Covid. Thailand is borrowing 5 bob. There's the answer why are currencies are falling like a stone. They will soon be worthless.

[baansgr]

When the truth be known the Baht will collapse...along with the Euro..Sterling and Greenback will be the strongest currencies to have

[fulhamster]

1 minute ago, baansgr said:

When the truth be known the Baht will collapse...along with the Euro..Sterling and Greenback will be the strongest currencies to have

And when will that ever be ??

[Brickbat]

Western nations are more accountable and a lower currency rate benefits the economy. The strong baht screws the majority but superbly benefits the super rich . They are exchanging  baht for foreign currencies and buying up big time. And all usd debt gets to be lower repayments. Ultra Smart cookies! 
we humble expats don’t even figure in their minds, leave alone the struggling population of “mai pen rai sabai sabai happy happy Why you think too much!“

[brokenbone]

18 hours ago, Steve Vincent said:

Maybe I need to move my family back to the u.k until the exchange rates return to some normality

this is the new normal

[AgMech Cowboy]

Good luck with your decision about going back to the UK.

 

There are many Thais who remember the exchange rate before 1997. IMHO the goal is to get back to that point. Despite the lack of tourist and the hit the economy will take, the big giveaways in the West are severely affecting their currency values.  Mind you, the US Dollar should see the most effect. They are blatantly throwing out the money.  It will severely devalue the dollar in the long run because it's the most obvious. Perception still means a lot in any money market.

[tweedledee2]

   If the current exchange rate makes living in Thailand to expensive for you, how much do you expect you'll save, flying your family back and living in the UK? 

   I've been sending the same amount of USD's from my SS payment each month to Thailand for the past 5 years to support our family of four. Since paying off our car loan in Dec, 11,00 baht carries over into the next month. I know for a fact that it would cost more to live in the US. 

 

[Paul DS]

Well here is the latest issues;

The EU and the UK have recently cut interest rates to virtually zero.

They are paying for millions to stay home rather than work.

They are lending / giving millions to industry to keep them afloat.

They have debt running into 100s of billions of currency.

They are still in a live Covid 19 issue.

 

The USA and Russia have mass deaths and virus issues which are not resolved.

Sub Continents are now seeing mass virus expansion.

 

Now we come to Thailand:

Interest rates still higher than many countries.

Thailand has given here and there 1000-5000 baht to the poor.

They allow "farangs" etc to organise free food to the starving.

They have no new debt arising from Covid 19

They "have" no Covid 19 (so they state)

They do / did have massive rise in Pneumonia and Dengue though!

The "rich" Chinese will be back in a few weeks time.

 

So as the rest of the World have financial and health problems, Thailand does not...locals can lose there cars, go broke, have no jobs, have no money, starve, they can go back to the villages and farm!....but none of that effects or bothers the Junta government so poor exchange rates are here for many years to come!

 

I live in a village in the sticks, everyone is poor and many starving, my Thai Wife cooks rice etc non stop every day to help others.  As I've stated in the past, Pattaya etc is not a true reflection of Thai Life.

 

Thailand is great ...if you have money, 3rd World if not.

[EricTh]

Free fall?

 

Thanks to the COVID-19, the US dollar has strengthened to 32 baht to 1 USD. It used to be 30 baht (and falling) to 1 USD before the pandemic.

[tribalfusion001]

6 minutes ago, Paul DS said:

The "rich" Chinese will be back in a few weeks time.

If they are allowed out that is, the Chinese economy sank by -9.8% for the 1st quarter and the Chinese are being encouraged to holiday at home. A few rich Chinese won't save Thailand's tourism. Only a weaker baht will stimulate mass tourism.

[Isaan sailor]

39 minutes ago, tweedledee2 said:

   If the current exchange rate makes living in Thailand to expensive for you, how much do you expect you'll save, flying your family back and living in the UK? 

   I've been sending the same amount of USD's from my SS payment each month to Thailand for the past 5 years to support our family of four. Since paying off our car loan in Dec, 11,00 baht carries over into the next month. I know for a fact that it would cost more to live in the US. 

 

At 32.05 USD, USA would cost more to live in.  Although a former expat moved back to  eastern Tennessee, bought 3 BR house in the hills, 12 acres for $120k, with $600 in taxes. For me—another 10% loss on USD—we head for the TN hills, too.

[sammieuk1]

Tourism falls off of mount everest and the baht is high as a kite Boris opens his trap and the pound collapses someones making big money here ????

[Pilotman]

6 hours ago, baansgr said:

When the truth be known the Baht will collapse...along with the Euro..Sterling and Greenback will be the strongest currencies to have

good luck with that prediction.   I really do think the opposite will happen.  

[Kwasaki]

6 hours ago, fulhamster said:

And when will that ever be ??

When C20 comes. 

[tweedledee2]

37 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

At 32.05 USD, USA would cost more to live in.  Although a former expat moved back to  eastern Tennessee, bought 3 BR house in the hills, 12 acres for $120k, with $600 in taxes. For me—another 10% loss on USD—we head for the TN hills, too.

   Tennessee has the highest sales tax rate of any state in the US. Compared to my home state of Missouri, its median wage is 10% lower and rental costs 10% higher. My ex had relatives that moved 3 miles from a suburb south of Memphis across the State Line Road  to Southaven, Ms., because the taxes on income, consumer goods, property taxes and personal property were lower or non-existent. 

   I pay 749 baht for 1-Gb internet. In the US it would be a minimum $80 for a lower speed. 

Electric bill 1800-2000 baht, US $100+.  Water 150 baht a month, US $30+ with sewer including trash pick-up costing the same. Car insurance 9250 baht, US $900-1200 a year. A haircut is 100 baht or less, US $15+. My cell phone usage is less than 100 baht a month. In the US, that wouldn't pay the taxes that the carriers charge to use their service. The list could go on..

   

[1FinickyOne]

On 5/15/2020 at 4:52 PM, Steve Vincent said:

the u.s dollar in free fall

the US dollar is actually up against the baht in the recent past.. look at a chart... 

 

a sometimes difficult and for some reason unexpected, by some, part of living in another country is the volatility that can be experienced in currency markets...

 

you and I can't crack it or predict but have to roll with it... I feel bad for the Brits who retired here getting 70+ to the pound and now are getting 38... that is steep and would have been hard to predict... 

 

Currency fluctuations will not be a factor if you move back but taxes and inflation will be... [not to mention weather] 

 

 

 

[baansgr]

3 hours ago, Pilotman said:

good luck with that prediction.   I really do think the opposite will happen.  

Just trying to be positive in these trying times...personally I've invested in Rhodesian Dollars

[Steve Vincent]

4 hours ago, tweedledee2 said:

   If the current exchange rate makes living in Thailand to expensive for you, how much do you expect you'll save, flying your family back and living in the UK? 

   I've been sending the same amount of USD's from my SS payment each month to Thailand for the past 5 years to support our family of four. Since paying off our car loan in Dec, 11,00 baht carries over into the next month. I know for a fact that it would cost more to live in the US. 

 

Good question,in truth I’m not sure,all I can tell you the missus will earn good money and I’m probably likely to catch covid19 ... joking aside I’m in a catch 24 whilst in Thailand I’m living on savings whilst back in the u.k I’d have a reasonably well paid job,apart from that there’s not much difference ....hope everything works out for you and the family ????