How long will Bangkok's rental market suffer?

[pomozki]

Hi, my current lease expires at the end of July and I've started checking out other places in downtown Bangkok to see if there are good deals around.

Yes, there are brilliant deals (30-40%, even 50% off some places). Even the Thais have started discounting heavily to get tenants.
Sure, Pattaya's rental market will be shot for ages because it depends so much on foreigners and bars/nightclubs will be the last allowed to reopen -

but what about Bangkok?
Some foreigners will start arriving after July 1 if they comply with stringent conditions, including having work permits.

But I suspect most people arriving here are tourists, who quickly get out of town and visit the tourist spots.

Does anyone know if long-term stayers in Bangkok make up a big slice of arrivals in Thailand?
If they're only a small minority, this will only be a tiny window of opportunity and you have to act fast - like now!
On the other hand, if this market is also likely to be depressed for some time, I'd much prefer to wait until 1-2 weeks before moving.
Right now the people I'm meeting aren't too excited when I say I can't move for 6-7 weeks.
Hope that all makes sense, cheers!

[Airalee]

If you find the right place at the right deal, I think it’s worth paying rent at two places for the last month of your lease just to be able to secure a good spot.  There may be lots of deals, but there are only a limited number of prime units offered at discount prices.  It makes moving much easier too.

[pomozki]

3 hours ago, Airalee said:

If you find the right place at the right deal, I think it’s worth paying rent at two places for the last month of your lease just to be able to secure a good spot.  There may be lots of deals, but there are only a limited number of prime units offered at discount prices.  It makes moving much easier too.

ha! I was thinking of doubling up for one week - a month is certainly bold ????
cheers

[impulse]

I don't think it's foreigners who will be snapping up the majority of the units.  I think it's the Thais who went back home to live up country with family when they were no longer required to show up at work in BKK. 

 

When and if (and it's a big if) the economy opens up, the unemployed are re-hired and the work-from-home people need to start showing up at the office, some of the slack will disappear.  Along with a lot of the super deals.

 

But I've been wrong...  It happens.

 

[bwpage3]

20 minutes ago, pomozki said:

ha! I was thinking of doubling up for one week - a month is certainly bold ????
cheers

It is it bold, perhaps you don't have enough money to be living in Thailand?

[pomozki]

8 hours ago, bwpage3 said:

It is it bold, perhaps you don't have enough money to be living in Thailand?

I have sufficient money (although that is none of your business) - not wanting to double-pay rent for an entire month has nothing to do with being short of money and as I said, I'd already thought of doubling up for a week, not a month. The post wasn't really about that anyway - it was about the likely state of the market.

My god, there are some mindless keyboard warriors here! methinks you've been in lockdown for too long

8 hours ago, impulse said:

I don't think it's foreigners who will be snapping up the majority of the units.  I think it's the Thais who went back home to live up country with family when they were no longer required to show up at work in BKK. 

 

When and if (and it's a big if) the economy opens up, the unemployed are re-hired and the work-from-home people need to start showing up at the office, some of the slack will disappear.  Along with a lot of the super deals.

 

But I've been wrong...  It happens.

aha a proper answer, thanks mate!

[Andyfez]

Airalee is right.

Prime units are not discounted.

Only some ordinary 'run if the mill' units.

Your comments seem to assume it's foreigners that will govern whether it is discounted or not.

Foreigners are in the minority.

[DaRoadrunner]

On 6/6/2020 at 10:39 PM, Airalee said:

If you find the right place at the right deal, I think it’s worth paying rent at two places for the last month of your lease just to be able to secure a good spot.  There may be lots of deals, but there are only a limited number of prime units offered at discount prices.  It makes moving much easier too.

To which I would add;- I read there were 4500 empty rooms in Bkk alone, so it is a buyers market, negotiate a discount. Of course, it pays to have a Thai friend negotiate for you as we filthy farang are often charged more.

[Kraig62]

9 minutes ago, DaRoadrunner said:

To which I would add;- I read there were 4500 empty rooms in Bkk alone, so it is a buyers market, negotiate a discount. Of course, it pays to have a Thai friend negotiate for you as we filthy farang are often charged more.

Filthy RICH farangs ???? 

[1FinickyOne]

On 6/6/2020 at 10:04 PM, pomozki said:

I can't move for 6-7 weeks

buyers market - you are the boss.. nothing is going to change that quickly... do it at your own pace.. maybe places will get cheaper.

[swerve]

11 minutes ago, DaRoadrunner said:

To which I would add;- I read there were 4500 empty rooms in Bkk alone, so it is a buyers market, negotiate a discount. Of course, it pays to have a Thai friend negotiate for you as we filthy farang are often charged more.

I would expect that there are many more than 4500 in Bkk.  Almost every residence or housing estate you go by in Phuket has a for rent sign, and they are still building more right now.

[Ron jeremy]

22 minutes ago, DaRoadrunner said:

To which I would add;- I read there were 4500 empty rooms in Bkk alone, so it is a buyers market, negotiate a discount. Of course, it pays to have a Thai friend negotiate for you as we filthy farang are often charged more.

Wrong.

[Caldera]

I think the economy still has a long way to go (down), while new condos keep hitting an already deteriorating market. I'd guess we haven't seen the lows yet!

 

[timendres]

The best deals are not likely to be online. Some years ago, a friend was pushed out of his townhouse, and he hired a Thai person to ride around finding places that met his criteria, and they built a spreadsheet of those places with their prices. He found a fantastic place at a price that was quite amazing. Cost him 2,000 baht for the work, but that paid off many times over.

Edited June 8, 2020 by timendres

[pomozki]

3 hours ago, timendres said:

The best deals are not likely to be online. Some years ago, a friend was pushed out of his townhouse, and he hired a Thai person to ride around finding places that met his criteria, and they built a spreadsheet of those places with their prices. He found a fantastic place at a price that was quite amazing. Cost him 2,000 baht for the work, but that paid off many times over.

many interesting comments here - Ron Jeremy's post about 100,000 vacant condos tells quite a story

this one by Timendres also raises an excellent point. I've seen heaps of places the last few weeks, mostly because I couldn't make up my mind exactly where I wanted to be. One day it clicked. i knew exactly where I wanted to be and I focused on a handful of sois in 2 different districts. I walked into every place that interested me and was blown away by some of the rents some people were still demanding. BUT then, after walking for about half an hour or more, I came across 2 fantastic places and dealt directly with the owners/managers and after a brief face to face chat they both offered me big discounts on the spot.

so you're absolutely right - the legwork pays off ????
(I haven't taken either place yet cos these 2 fantastic places are still above the budget I've set myself but I might budge if they don't in the next few days!)

[PingRoundTheWorld]

This isn't a temporary thing - the condo market was a bubble waiting to burst held up by foreign (tourist) demand - both long and short term but mainly short term in the tourist areas and in particular demand from westerners, Chinese, Indian, and Middle Easterners. Those are all gone and unlikely to return anytime soon in large quantities. There may be a trickle of single men thirsty for some much needed fun, but families and other "more conservative" tourists are not coming back for months if not years. Aside from travel bans there's also the economy and huge amounts of unemployed and underemployed removed from the potential tourist pool. These aren't "discounts", this is "the new normal", I hate that term, lol.

[statman78]

We must be in the minority.  Our tenant in our condo in Bangkok is leaving mid-July.  Since we have had it leased out for over 9 years we were going to remodel it and keep it for ourselves since we go Bangkok to get away for a while.  Sometimes Chiang Rai is a little too quiet and I also like to visit friends since I lived and worked in Bangkok before.  A few days after our agent told us the guy was leaving, she called us again.  She has 2 different clients that are very interested in renting our place at our current price.  Not sure what we will do now.

[5633572526]

On 6/7/2020 at 2:57 AM, bwpage3 said:

It is it bold, perhaps you don't have enough money to be living in Thailand?

Bold no but with the glut of condos in bkk quite possibly stupid 

[Bender Rodriguez]

I check condo nearby on renthub... prices WENT UP

 

thai mentality:  have to get money back they lost...

 

0 discounts

[CrunchWrapSupreme]

On 6/7/2020 at 2:57 AM, impulse said:

I think it's the Thais who went back home to live up country with family when they were no longer required to show up at work in BKK. 

My sister-in-laws did just this. They're still in touch with friends back at the condo complex, who tell them tons of units are now empty, with piles of junk left behind. Not exactly prime units though. The parking was out of control, and now they say it's somewhat manageable.

[impulse]

23 hours ago, Kraig62 said:

23 hours ago, DaRoadrunner said:

To which I would add;- I read there were 4500 empty rooms in Bkk alone, so it is a buyers market, negotiate a discount. Of course, it pays to have a Thai friend negotiate for you as we filthy farang are often charged more.

Filthy RICH farangs

 

Do you mean filthy rich farang who never learned to negotiate because we grew up in nanny states where every price was clearly marked and everyone paid the clearly marked price? 

 

There is dual pricing.  But one price is for people who know how to negotiate, and another price for people who don't know, because their government protected them from ever having to learn.  Generally, we're poorly prepared for business in a culture where kids learn to negotiate prices as soon as they learn to speak. 

 

So, yes.  Bring a Thai friend...  Not because of xenophobia.  But because they know how to negotiate.

Edited June 9, 2020 by impulse

[pomozki]

16 hours ago, 5633572526 said:

Bold no but with the glut of condos in bkk quite possibly stupid 

'I agree - if you mean that it doesn't make sense right now to double-pay for a whole month?

[pomozki]

6 hours ago, impulse said:

 

Do you mean filthy rich farang who never learned to negotiate because we grew up in nanny states where every price was clearly marked and everyone paid the clearly marked price? 

 

There is dual pricing.  But one price is for people who know how to negotiate, and another price for people who don't know, because their government protected them from ever having to learn.  Generally, we're poorly prepared for business in a culture where kids learn to negotiate prices as soon as they learn to speak. 

 

So, yes.  Bring a Thai friend...  Not because of xenophobia.  But because they know how to negotiate.

wow, talk about generalising! "filthy rich farang who never learned to negotiate because we grew up in nanny states" - speak for yourself! Foreigners who have no clue about negotiating would be in a tiny minority. I never heard anyone make the comment you just have. I think it's hogwash actually!

[Mulambana]

Can someone post a few units close to MRT/BTS and their rental values. Thinking about keeping a pad in Bangkok for some pay-for-play actions in the week-end. Need a one bedroom (not studio), at least 35sqm and close to BTS/MRT. Preferred newer units or kept immaculately new if units are old. Budget is 15K Max. I used to stay nere Thonglo BTS for 20K for a two bed room, two bath condo. Have moved to Pattaya now becuase my GF bought a new condo for short time/long time rent but there are no tenants as of now. I am the captive tenant ????.

Edited June 9, 2020 by Mulambana

[richard_smith237]

1 hour ago, Mulambana said:

Can someone post a few units close to MRT/BTS and their rental values. Thinking about keeping a pad in Bangkok for some pay-for-play actions in the week-end. Need a one bedroom (not studio), at least 35sqm and close to BTS/MRT. Preferred newer units or kept immaculately new if units are old. Budget is 15K Max. I used to stay nere Thonglo BTS for 20K for a two bed room, two bath condo. Have moved to Pattaya now becuase my GF bought a new condo for short time/long time rent but there are no tenants as of now. I am the captive tenant ????.

Looking on a property website is too much work ?

 

Lie back and think of England while ThaiVisa.com members service your request sir !!!!

[pomozki]

On 6/10/2020 at 2:58 AM, richard_smith237 said:

Looking on a property website is too much work ?

 

Lie back and think of England while ThaiVisa.com members service your request sir !!!!

the very same thought went through my mind but I held my tongue (very unlike me) - a tiny amount of effort will also find several FB groups where heaps of rental listings are posted every day

[Airalee]

23 minutes ago, pomozki said:

the very same thought went through my mind but I held my tongue (very unlike me) - a tiny amount of effort will also find several FB groups where heaps of rental listings are posted every day

Those FB groups are great.  Most of the agents are still asking stupid prices but there are a couple that actually have some great deals.

[pomozki]

8 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Those FB groups are great.  Most of the agents are still asking stupid prices but there are a couple that actually have some great deals.

yep, agents in those groups merely post what the landlords tell them and seem to throw up their hands in horror when you mention the virus and ask them to organise a big discount. It isn't the best way to go

[mommysboy]

It will last years- affordability will be a factor even if the demand returns.