AOT expects flights, passengers to return to 2019 levels only in 2022

By THE NATION

 

 

Airports of Thailand (AOT) expects flights to recover to 2019 levels only in 2022, the company told the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) on Wednesday (June 17).

 

The report covered AOT's estimation of air traffic from 2020 to 2023.

 

AOT said that the exponential spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in different countries had adversely affected air travel and significantly reduced the number of flights and passengers at the six airports run by AOT.

 

The six international airports are: Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang, Chiang Mai, Hat Yai, Phuket and Mae Fah Luang-Chiang Rai.

 

The AOT board of directors met on Wednesday (June 17) and discussed the analysis of the impact of the current situation as well as air traffic forecasts for fiscal years 2020-23.

 

In fiscal 2020, AOT expects 491,900 flights and 69.04 million passengers, down 45.1 per cent and 51.3 per cent respectively year on year.

 

Domestic air traffic volume will start to continuously recover in August 2020 until it returns to normal (to 2019 levels) in October 2022, the analysis said.

 

In fiscal 2022, AOT-run airports will see 761,800 flights and 108.87 million passengers, down 15 per cent and 23.3 per cent respectively compared to 2019.

 

In fiscal 2023, a total number of 902,200 flights are expected and 144.20 million passengers, up 0.7 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively year on year.

 

Such forecasts are based on the assumption that a second wave of Covid-19 infections does not hit different countries targeted for making bilateral "travel bubble" agreements with Thailand. The government must implement state quarantine measures for inbound travellers from countries listed as Thailand’s major international routes, thereby resulting in a gradual increase in the number of international passengers, the amalysis said.

 

A Covid-19 vaccine is expected to be developed and distributed in July 2021, controlling the global outbreak. The national economy can then recover in January 2022 while the traffic volume will return to the 2019 air traffic volume in October 2022, AOT said.

 

Regarding operating revenue forecasts following the impact from the huge decrease in flights and passenger numbers, AOT expects a 50.70 per cent decrease in revenue in fiscal 2020, compared to 2019 and a 42.21 per cent decrease in revenue in fiscal year 2021, compared to the revenue in fiscal 2020.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30389849

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-06-18

 

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This is NOT good news for Thailand

No problem, as the high speed rail network with China was supposed to be ready by the end of this year. They will come, in tens of millions, by train.

Why is it only Thailand has a crystal ball. It not fair 

It's not good news for visitors to Thailand including this poster.

No one will come with quarantine in place.

No one.

A vaccine is anything but a certainty.

So what's plan B? Close your borders?

No problem. All tourist areas will become wastelands. Hotels/bars/restaurants will close. Owners will hand back keys and get out of Thailand, never to return, as soon as possible.

Do yourselves a favour in the meantime business owners, stop feeding their citizens. Your being played for mugs.

 

 

Tis refreshing to see some organisation such as AOT telling the truth....or are they just saying that to cover their butz for some reason???  ????

15 hours ago, webfact said:

AOT expects flights, passengers to return to 2019 levels only in 2022

If then!

That seems a realistic estimate, unlike some of the nonsense we have heard from people like the Tourism Minister. 

16 hours ago, webfact said:

The report covered AOT's estimation of air traffic from 2020 to 2023.

 

That is not what the plonkers at T.A.T. reckon, somebody actually being realistic, makes a change.

Well it's all very speculative when things will return to normal, but this is a least a dose of realism.

 

Maybe, hopefully there will be a vaccine next year, but remember the world has been trying to develop a vaccine for HIV for the past 40 years with no success, so nothing is guaranteed! 

 

Then there is the economic devastation that this damn virus has inflicted on families finances. 

 

2021 is at best a recovery year where folks try to recover their financial footing, and I severely doubt overseas vacations will be high on the 'to do' list

 

 

But will all six airports be used for incoming passengers, Thai and foreigners? Or will all flights land at the 2 Bkk airports?

 

Further, will passengers from a bubble departure points still be required to do 14 days quarantine on arrival, and will quarantine facilities be available nearby at the six inter. airports? And will they be local basic hotels or luxury hotels.

 

Also, when we reach the point of passengers coming in from bubble locations, will arriving locals (Thai, WP and PR holders) be allowed to quarantine for 14 days at home?

 

 

15 hours ago, WillyPlatt said:

It's not good news for visitors to Thailand including this poster.

No one will come with quarantine in place.

No one.

A vaccine is anything but a certainty.

So what's plan B? Close your borders?

No problem. All tourist areas will become wastelands. Hotels/bars/restaurants will close. Owners will hand back keys and get out of Thailand, never to return, as soon as possible.

Do yourselves a favour in the meantime business owners, stop feeding their citizens. Your being played for mugs.

 

 

it’s already happening, my Thai colleague showed me a list of Bangkok hotels up for sale (including some ‘big’ names) sure it is the same (or worse) in Phuket, Samui etc.

 

going to be a big reset for the tourist industry, with a lot of pain along the way.

 

Time for the government to make serious efforts in developing a broader and more open economy to support their citizens livelihoods. Already seen loosening of foreign ownership restrictions for aviation, would not be surprised to see that widen into other sectors to stimulate further investment.  The Thai billionaire oligarchs should take a step back and allow a more open market.

as for International tourism, I hope it comes back in a more sustainable and improved form, but I expect they will simply go back to mass market as that is the path of least resistance.

 

15 hours ago, Swimfan said:

Why is it only Thailand has a crystal ball. It not fair 

My thoughts exactly. This will all end in 2022. Wow who are these people in power.

Nobody knows but it will take time. Numbers don’t add up. 2020 is 50% below 2019 and 2021 will be 42 % below 2020?  Should be 42% below 2019 which means 2021 will be an increase of 8%. Thus many empty flights will arrive... Thailand has always had its own way we would never understand... land of smiles will always come back strong no matter 

17 hours ago, webfact said:

AOT said that the exponential spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in different countries had adversely affected air travel and significantly reduced the number of flights and passengers at the six airports run by AOT.

Blimey, it must have taken some brains and thought to work that out. 

18 hours ago, webfact said:

Airports of Thailand (AOT) expects flights to recover to 2019 levels only in 2022, the company told the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) on Wednesday (June 17).

That's looking on the bright side, I think local travel is going to be the new norm for long time yet.

Most countries are going to stimulate domestic packages, that is going to be hard to beat unless someone really wants overseas travel.

However, CAAT has proposed to do away with social distancing on Domestic flights.  Not sure how that will work out.  I understand they believe there are no infections still in the country at this point but as NZ found out and Beijing, it is an utter crapshoot, and why I think AOT's projections are actually spot on.

18 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

That's looking on the bright side, I think local travel is going to be the new norm for long time yet.

Most countries are going to stimulate domestic packages, that is going to be hard to beat unless someone really wants overseas travel.

Unless the country has enough attractive sites... so small countries with no or few sites worth visiting are screwed... its like trapped in a ''bubble".. which is why the next post covid experience is 3D virrtual tours/travel which Japanese are developing.

16 hours ago, WillyPlatt said:

A vaccine is anything but a certainty.

So what's plan B? Close your borders?

No problem. All tourist areas will become wastelands.

 I travel from the US to see friends bi-annually, and that statement seems to be the dagger on travel for at least the next year. 

What a difference a day makes.

I'm surprised AOT would release such a gloomy (but truthful) assessment.  TAT will have a hard job countering (i.e., making up rosy BS) the AOT assessment, but I'm sure TAT will give it the ol' college try. 

17 hours ago, WillyPlatt said:

It's not good news for visitors to Thailand including this poster.

No one will come with quarantine in place.

No one.

A vaccine is anything but a certainty.

So what's plan B? Close your borders?

No problem. All tourist areas will become wastelands. Hotels/bars/restaurants will close. Owners will hand back keys and get out of Thailand, never to return, as soon as possible.

Do yourselves a favour in the meantime business owners, stop feeding their citizens. Your being played for mugs.

 

 

Why do you presume all business owners are foreigners ?

Its a moot point what Thailand is doing anyway, Countries wont let their citizens leave to travel to Thailand and airlines are not flying to Thailand. None of that is the action of Thailand.

 

16 minutes ago, 5633572526 said:

What a difference a day makes.

Cricket's.....

This is all very sad and ridiculous.  People die every day.  Over 6,000 so far on Thai roadways.  No provisions for that.  Thousands die of other reasons.  No provisions for that.  But hey, lets go stupid when it comes to a Virus.  It is not just Thailand.  The world has gone completely beserk over this.  I don't want to die, but I would like to live "a little".  The Virus is to be taken serious, of course, but so is the carnage on the highways, the motor bikes, etc.  Does anyone have a clue??????

17 hours ago, Grumpy John said:

Tis refreshing to see some organisation such as AOT telling the truth....or are they just saying that to cover their butz for some reason???  ????

AOT is a publicly traded company, so they could (theoretically) be sued by shareholders for giving inaccurate information about their business prospects.

The future is not ours to see, and It is how I see these forecasts when International

flights are only starting. More likely 2024 or 25 might be a start of some

recovery, unless there is some other disaster.  Hope for a better future,

just do not believe TATs forecasts.

Geezer

17 hours ago, SoilSpoil said:

No problem, as the high speed rail network with China was supposed to be ready by the end of this year. They will come, in tens of millions, by train.

Only one problem. The second wave hitting China. I wonder if  TOT have heard of this yet.

 

17 hours ago, Swimfan said:

Why is it only Thailand has a crystal ball. It not fair 

Obvious innit !  Only Thais know which are the correct amulets to wear.

24 minutes ago, Gary Maneval said:

This is all very sad and ridiculous.  People die every day.  Over 6,000 so far on Thai roadways.  No provisions for that.  Thousands die of other reasons.  No provisions for that.  But hey, lets go stupid when it comes to a Virus.  It is not just Thailand.  The world has gone completely beserk over this.  I don't want to die, but I would like to live "a little".  The Virus is to be taken serious, of course, but so is the carnage on the highways, the motor bikes, etc.  Does anyone have a clue??????

The difference being, you cant catch a road accident or most of the other ways people die, they are not contagious. Other forms of death dont grow exponentially, 2 dead today, 4 dead tomorrow, 8 the next day etc.

Most years the road death toll is similar to the year before etc, its not doubling every 2-3 days as covid does, if no action is taken..

2 hours ago, scorecard said:

But will all six airports be used for incoming passengers, Thai and foreigners? Or will all flights land at the 2 Bkk airports?

 

Further, will passengers from a bubble departure points still be required to do 14 days quarantine on arrival, and will quarantine facilities be available nearby at the six inter. airports? And will they be local basic hotels or luxury hotels.

 

Also, when we reach the point of passengers coming in from bubble locations, will arriving locals (Thai, WP and PR holders) be allowed to quarantine for 14 days at home?

 

 

OMG!  i recently had to spend 4 days in a "so called  4* hotel" at Swampy. It was bloody awful, no restaurants, just the swill available at their   No star restaurant.