Thailand's real crisis is the economy

[webfact]

OPINION

Thailand's real crisis is the economy

Political grievances peripheral to economic damage being wrought by COVID-19

Thomas Parks

 

A woman sits near a beach which is usually full of tourists in Phuket on Mar. 10: hardest hit are informal workers with 81% of those employed in tourism losing their jobs.   © Reuters

 

Thomas Parks is the Asia Foundation's country representative in Thailand.

 

Beyond Thailand's success in limiting the impact of the COVID-19 health crisis, two other crises are unfolding in parallel.

 

Drawing most attention is the recent wave of student-led protests that have unleashed speculation about Thailand's political stability. Yet recent data collected by the Asia Foundation points to a more consequential economic crisis that could well outlast the protests and pandemic.

 

These three crises are, for the moment, unrelated. The government's handling of the pandemic has been wildly popular, while the protests have been fueled by pre-pandemic political grievances, and organized by students from Thailand's elite schools. So far, there is no evidence that economic pressures are swelling the protest movements. But if Thailand's economy continues on its current trajectory, significantly deepening poverty and inequality, there is a risk that millions of newly poor Thai citizens could find common cause with the student political protests.

 

Full story: https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Thailand-s-real-crisis-is-the-economy

 

-- © Copyright Nikkei Asian Review 2020-09-10

 

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[ukrules]

They're in a trap, can't win no matter what they do.....

[meechai]

Does not help that the current crop .....snipped....

are without a single idea of how to run a country politically nor economically.

 

Yet they continue to bury their snouts deep in the trough without a care for the actual People of Thailand they pretend to serve

 

This is the saddest state I have ever seen in Thailand;s history. There really seems now to be none in higher places that care

at all for the people...Not like all the pictures of years gone by of the people turning out en masse to wait by the roadside to greet & thank

those they loved & felt loved by.

Edited September 9, 2020 by meechai

[rumak]

"Finally, it is critical to understand why businesses are not adapting faster, and not accessing the soft loans."        

 

Adapting ?   Sure wish the author would give us some idea of what he is thinking .

 

Isn't this like the zookeeper walking by the homosapien cage and saying  " So,  no food for a week.  Our primate here is losing a lot of weight .  Gee, i can't understand why it doesn't adapt ".    

[Mike Teavee]

1 hour ago, ukrules said:

They're in a trap, can't win no matter what they do.....

Despite being one of the worst hit by the demise of tourism, I don't think Thailand is in as bad a position as the UK (In fact, if I still lived in the UK I'd probably swap governments with them!) which means I can only see this resulting in a stronger baht (which adds to Thailand's own problems)  

 

[Brunolem]

If you look at Thailand alone, it doesn't look good.

 

If you look at Thailand and the rest of the world, it looks much better.

 

It's only a matter of context...

[ezzra]

Rubbish... Thailand has fared the pandemic very well in contrast to countries like Australia and UK, other than tourism and hospitality business that took the brunt of the covid lack of tourists, all other business are open as usual, when a country wants to blow tens of billions on frivolous toys like submarines, this country is doing well economically and will recover back to where they used to be...

[Destiny1990]

They survived corona by killing their economy. 

[steven100]

Thailand will have to adapt. Thailand is not the only country in South east Asia or the world,  others are doing it tougher than Thailand.

Adapt, change or adjust so that it's not so dependent on global tourism.  

[RotBenz8888]

Threy could save alot by cutting the military expenses. I mean, if someone invaded the country, they could just pretend the enemy isn't there. 

Edited September 9, 2020 by RotBenz8888

[rumak]

On 9/10/2020 at 5:56 AM, Brunolem said:

If you look at Thailand and the rest of the world, it looks much better.

You must get more channels on your TV than I do .   lol

 

But, i do get the feeling everything, everywhere  is pretty  <deleted>d .

 

I kinda remember people looking at me the same way they do to "conspiracy theorists" today,

when 20 years ago i was saying " damn,  just tooooo many people being born to exist comfortably

on this planet."        

 

 

[Fex Bluse]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

If you look at Thailand alone, it doesn't look good.

 

If you look at Thailand and the rest of the world, it looks much better.

 

It's only a matter of context...

This is only true if a person doesn't understand or ignores the structural changes in the global economy underway. Thailand was already falling into the middle income trap. Now, it has covid and a semi permanent change and likely decline in tourism during the next 5 years. It is missing out on significant decoupling between the world and China. And, it has a horrid education system and very poorly trained population. 

 

The economy has run on Handjobs, assembly of goods built and designed in other countries and growing rice. 

 

How will it adapt to the future? 

[Isaan sailor]

You can almost enjoy the irony.  The economy has swooned and will continue to do so.  Yet the mighty Baht keeps charging upward.  Someone must think Thailand remains a great investment...

[Stargeezr]

Well it is a good thing that Thailand has all those rice fields that are just one

of its agricultural means of making money. All types of fruit, and vegetables

as well. Plus the manufacturing industry and electronic industry that keeps some

people working.  I hear that there is still some construction happening which employs

more people. Some of the shopping malls may still have some stores open that

depend on the Thai people to survive.    I do feel sorry for places like Phuket

and Pattaya and other places that had a lot of tourists as they must be suffering

that loss of revenue. The virus though has affected the whole world, so other

countries are also suffering the same problems and everybody except for the rich

have been affected, and do not have the money that they did before being off work

for 3 to 6 months.  I know that I will not be travelling this coming Winter as I need to

save up until next Winter to afford another trip to Asia or anywhere.

Geezer

[Enzian]

I'm caught in a trap

I can't go back (to the US)

Because I'd never get back in again

 

I'm caught in a trap/I can't go back

Because I loved you too much my Thai baby

 

I'm a hansum man, with suspicious mind

And I'm stuck here for duration

 

Oh can't you see, what you're doing to me

As my balance declines baby

 

When the money's gone, and I end this song

You'll be on to the next sucker...

 

I'm caught in a trap, I can't go back...

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

This is only true if a person doesn't understand or ignores the structural changes in the global economy underway. Thailand was already falling into the middle income trap. Now, it has covid and a semi permanent change and likely decline in tourism during the next 5 years. It is missing out on significant decoupling between the world and China. And, it has a horrid education system and very poorly trained population. 

 

How will it adapt to the future? 

Actually most Western countries, starting with the US, are falling... back... in the middle income trap. 

 

This is called the destruction of the middle class, by means of taxes and especially debt, and is well under way. 

 

There is no decoupling between the world and China, just between the moribund US and China. 

 

The Chinese BRI (Belt and Road Inatiative) regrouping dozens of countries doesn't look like a decoupling... and Thailand could miss out by not being part of it. 

 

Yes, Thailand has a terrible education system... I can't think of worse... and this is because those who rule the country have a feudal mentality. 

 

Meanwhile, besides a few Asian countries, education is generally circling the drain, especially in the West, again. 

 

Thailand will not have to adapt to the future, it is the others who will have to adapt to a future that will look much like Thailand today... at best... 

[rumak]

1 hour ago, Enzian said:

I'm caught in a trap

I can't go back (to the US)

Because I'd never get back in again

 

I'm caught in a trap/I can't go back

Because I loved you too much my Thai baby

 

I'm a hansum man, with suspicious mind

And I'm stuck here for duration

 

Oh can't you see, what you're doing to me

As my balance declines baby

 

When the money's gone, and I end this song

You'll be on to the next sucker...

 

I'm caught in a trap, I can't go back...

 

I am sure you could easily put together a choir to sing along .....

[Thomas J]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

the government's handling of the pandemic has been wildly popular,

This reminds me of a story where a man is in the hospital in critical condition with a head injury.  The doctor mistakes him for another patient and amputates both legs.  The patient survives and the news media hails the doctor as 'SAVING THE PATIENTS LIFE"  

Thailand is hot, humid and a young population.  Every country with those characteristics has a low incidence of covid infection and death. 

 

[Grusa]

5 hours ago, ezzra said:

Rubbish... Thailand has fared the pandemic very well in contrast to countries like Australia and UK, other than tourism and hospitality business that took the brunt of the covid lack of tourists, all other business are open as usual, when a country wants to blow tens of billions on frivolous toys like submarines, this country is doing well economically and will recover back to where they used to be...

I don't think it is fair to say "when a country wants to blow tens of billions on frivolous toys like submarines" .

Better to say "when the pigs in charge want to blow tens of billions on frivolous toys like submarines"

[connda]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

The government's handling of the pandemic has been wildly popular,...there is a risk that millions of newly poor Thai citizens could find common cause with the student political protests.

If the government's handling of the pandemic has been "wildly popular", then those "millions of newly poor Thai citizens" supported the measures that put them in their current predicament. 
As such, there would be no reason for them to join protests as the government simply responded to the public's wildly enthusiastic support as the government ripped down the economy and implemented societal change using a totalitarian template  And the public raved!  "More lockdowns!  More business closures!  More social distancing!  More masks!  More!" 
These people will not protest.  They would sooner band together to kiss the feet of their beloved elite betters who issued unilateral edicts to protect the unwashed masses.  Poverty is the price of freedom from viruses and safety.

[Jack Hna]

I find it difficult to believe that FFP thanatorn did not foresee what would happen and plan for it. He went down way too easily and I get the feeling he knew he had to fight a different way. I hope I'm right and this is the beginning.

[natway09]

My question to  the author is ,,,,,what makes you think that many, many other countries are faring any better ???. It is a worldwide major problem & could lead to a worldwide depression of which Thailand will prove to you at the time that it is very resiliant to these problems.

EG: Export is down by 14%, but have a look at the value of the 86%. You will be surprised at the numbers

[JimGant]

5 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

The economy has run on Handjobs, assembly of goods built and designed in other countries and growing rice. 

So true -- and thanks for the chuckle. Did you mean to capitalize "Handjobs?" ???? I guess the common thread is manual labor....

[Peterphuket]

When you look to China, most is back to normal, can you imagine how stupid the LOS is doing.

[Orton Rd]

3 hours ago, Thomas J said:

This reminds me of a story where a man is in the hospital in critical condition with a head injury.  The doctor mistakes him for another patient and amputates both legs.  The patient survives and the news media hails the doctor as 'SAVING THE PATIENTS LIFE"  

Thailand is hot, humid and a young population.  Every country with those characteristics has a low incidence of covid infection and death. 

 

Brazil and India are pretty hot what did they do wrong?

[DrTuner]

7 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

The economy has run on Handjobs, assembly of goods built and designed in other countries and growing rice. 

I didn't know the Thai massage sector was that important.

[Scot123]

9 hours ago, Mike Teavee said:

Despite being one of the worst hit by the demise of tourism, I don't think Thailand is in as bad a position as the UK (In fact, if I still lived in the UK I'd probably swap governments with them!) which means I can only see this resulting in a stronger baht (which adds to Thailand's own problems)  

 

Really!!! Well I'm in the UK and thanking God every day we left Thailand in 2019 after 10 years there. Thinking that Thailand is in better shape than the UK is madness. People in the UK are not starving and the government has helped  small businesses £25k and paying people 80% of their pay to stay home. Its so sad to see so much bitterness from lots of Brit expats. We as a family are far better off back in the UK: schools actually teach your children, no worries about health/doctors Bill's, driving is bliss again, food is of a far higher quality and the myth that Thailand is cheaper is long gone. Oh and I no longer get shaken down by police or follow crazy rules and reporting of immigration. YES the news paints a bleak picture but our lives have not changed just a very slight inconvenience sometimes. Life in the UK is good but I suppose if you like being a handsome man and being pawed over by scantily dressed girls then I suppose Thailand is the place for you and makes the stress living there easier to handle. 

[Mike Teavee]

41 minutes ago, Scot123 said:

Really!!! Well I'm in the UK and thanking God every day we left Thailand in 2019 after 10 years there. Thinking that Thailand is in better shape than the UK is madness. People in the UK are not starving and the government has helped  small businesses £25k and paying people 80% of their pay to stay home. Its so sad to see so much bitterness from lots of Brit expats. We as a family are far better off back in the UK: schools actually teach your children, no worries about health/doctors Bill's, driving is bliss again, food is of a far higher quality and the myth that Thailand is cheaper is long gone. Oh and I no longer get shaken down by police or follow crazy rules and reporting of immigration. YES the news paints a bleak picture but our lives have not changed just a very slight inconvenience sometimes. Life in the UK is good but I suppose if you like being a handsome man and being pawed over by scantily dressed girls then I suppose Thailand is the place for you and makes the stress living there easier to handle. 

I think you missed my point somewhat, I wasn't saying that Thailand is in a better shape than the UK, I was having a dig at the shambolic way the UK govt has dealt with CV19 (& Brexit).... 

 

Nothing bitter about this expat (save he can't visit the UK to see his parents, it will be 12 months in Oct after having to cancel their annual trip to come visit me in Singapore in Jan & my annual visit there in May, obviously this year's Oct trip is now cancelled as well)...

1. I only moved full time to Bangkok 6 months ago (for 18 months prior to that I was renting a Condo here & visiting every other week from Singapore) after retiring (age 53) from working in Singapore last December after 11.5 years there.  
2. I'm single albeit live with my Thai partner of 2 years (no we didn't meet in a bar, not that it would make a difference if we had) & don't have school age kids to worry about (a good reason to go back to the UK, though if it had been me I would probably have chosen another EU country (Portugal) for tax reasons, an option that's now more or less closed to me  thanks to Brexit). 
3. I don't drive in Bangkok, there's no need (nor was there in Singapore), I only have to drive when I'm in the UK because the public transport is pretty poor up-north
4. I've never been approached by a police officer never mind shaken down by one, I don't see/notice them except when walking past the local police station. 
5. I don't have any problem following rules, it's the job of my agent (7K pa) to understand all that, I simply leave the 800K in the bank & visit CW once a year with them to do the extension, granted this year I had to pay them 1,500 for them to do my 90 day report for me because I missed my very 1st one because of the "Amnesty", but it saved me having to go in person)
6.  And most importantly... I am a handsome man, my mum says so & mum's are always right, so it must be true ????...  

 

Maybe after 10 years here I'll feel the same way as you do about Thailand (though I've been visiting at least 8 times a year for the past 12 years & still love the place), but for now I'm enjoying my time here, just can't wait for the borders to re-open & a vaccine to be available (my biggest fear about visiting the UK is passing CV19 on to my 71/76 year old parents) so I can enjoy the delights of sunny Warrington again.

 

How's the weather there at the moment (not a bad day here, though I think we might be in for some rain later). 

 

 

  

Edited September 10, 2020 by Mike Teavee

[Brunolem]

49 minutes ago, Scot123 said:

People in the UK are not starving 

...thanks to porridge, since it is about all that the Brits can eat after their knives were confiscated for fear of terrorist attacks...

 

I don't know what you are drinking, or smoking over there, but it must be extremely potent...

 

Anyway, rest assured that people are not starving in Thailand, despite the few photos taken in selected areas of places like Pattaya...and the country's finances are kept under control without resorting to massive money printing and negative interest rates as in the West...

Edited September 10, 2020 by Brunolem

[RocketDog]

7 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

Well it is a good thing that Thailand has all those rice fields that are just one

of its agricultural means of making money. All types of fruit, and vegetables

as well. Plus the manufacturing industry and electronic industry that keeps some

people working.  I hear that there is still some construction happening which employs

more people. Some of the shopping malls may still have some stores open that

depend on the Thai people to survive.    I do feel sorry for places like Phuket

and Pattaya and other places that had a lot of tourists as they must be suffering

that loss of revenue. The virus though has affected the whole world, so other

countries are also suffering the same problems and everybody except for the rich

have been affected, and do not have the money that they did before being off work

for 3 to 6 months.  I know that I will not be travelling this coming Winter as I need to

save up until next Winter to afford another trip to Asia or anywhere.

Geezer

I get your point but beg to differ on exports. Fruits and vegetable don't make the list of top ten. 

http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-10-exports/

 

It is ASEAN's largest vegetable exporter but its products are very limited, hardly deserving to be called vegetables. Corn, asparagus, some greens, and chilis yes. Mushrooms, garlic and a couple of others like this, no. And that's it. No tomatoes, cucumbers, summer squash, sweet peppers, carrots, beets, lettuce, broccoli, green beans (except those mutant yard long things), peas, beans, Brussels sprouts, cauliflower, onions, potatoes, eggplant etc. 

 

" Some of the popular products include fresh garlic which, during the first half of the year saw export volume grow 124%, compared to the same period last year, to 13.8 million USD, while chilli also grew by 33% to 8.3 million USD, along with frozen nuts, which remain popular as exports increased 0.5% to 37.6 million dollars."

 

And from Vietnam we see this:

" The nation’s fruit and vegetable exports to Thailand reached US$57.8 million during the opening four months of the year, a staggering annual rise of 244.1%, according to the Import and Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade." 

 

My only point is that after I started trying to grow veggies here and largely failed I began to look around me and saw very few vegetables being grown on any scale. Indeed, most of what I call vegetables are imported, mainly from China. 

 

The lush vegetation here inclines one to believe anything can be grown but it ain't true, and very little grown here is exported; Thailand is a net importer. 

If you look closely at Thai food you will see that the vegetable content is pretty meager. 

 

So yeah, fruits are grown and exported but not vegetables. 

 

Show me a Thai tomato that you think has flavor and I'll know you are fibbing.