Authorities probing why Thai woman with Covid-19 was not quarantined

[Meat Pie 47]

3 minutes ago, Kaopad999 said:

Why are they not making it public which shopping mall she was in , so that people  can avoid going there?! 

TIT

[Blumpie]

This is not good - it's important to contain that area.  

Allegedly (cough) thailand has been doing a good job of this but you need to remember this is much easier to catch than the seasonal flu.  One touch of anything, touch your phone, then a day later touch your phone and your eye and you can easily get it.  It's nasty.  

[hioctane]

7 minutes ago, Kaopad999 said:

Why are they not making it public which shopping mall she was in , so that people  can avoid going there?! 

So that people that went to the mall around that time can self quarantine and/or get tested.

[Meat Pie 47]

2 minutes ago, hioctane said:

So that people that went to the mall around that time can self quarantine and/or get tested.

The best joke I have heard in a long time

[hioctane]

The problem is most people don’t understand how the tests work. Even then it gets confusing. PCR is considered the gold standard of testing. Not just for Covid but for all types of viruses. It takes parts of your DNA and replicates it many many times to make it easier for the genetic code of the virus to be found. That is why it is very very hard to get a false positive (test positive for the virus when you actually don’t). False negatives are possible though (improper test taking, incubation period is long enough and you don’t have enough of the virus yet).

 

Then you get into how much of the virus do you have. A low viral load might mean you are recovering or it did not incubate yet. A low viral load might also mean you have it but not infectious.

Edited December 2, 2020 by onthedarkside
quote of hidden post removed

[tomazbodner]

6 hours ago, Sheryl said:

 

I think one and the same woman...unless this is the case in Chiang Rai?

Apparently not. This was a 26 year old friend of the Chiang Mai case, who is 29. Both worked in Myanmar and both crossed back to Thailand illegally at Mae Sai. The first case continued to Chiang Rai and then off to Chiang Mai, while this one stayed at Mae Sai hotel. Not sure this would be a Chiang Rai case, as she went to Chiang Mai to be tested at a hospital after hearing the news her friend was positive.

[CorpusChristie]

1 hour ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

What are felangs ?

 

  Western Caucasians 

[AmySeeker]

12 hours ago, rct99q said:

Bit off topic...was just in Chiang Khan near Loei. They gave a walking street night market. Both Thursday and Friday night the street was packed. At times it was difficult to move. 1,000 plus people for sure. People come from all over Thailand on tour buses. Surprisingly most not wearing masks. 

Suspect IF covid gets hold in Thailand it will be a result of an event like this. 

 

Just a note this night market takes place 7 days a week. 

 

 

Outdoor markets are less of a risk than malls. Being out in the air has been proven to be less risky. 

 

[AmySeeker]

12 hours ago, KhaoNiaw said:

Several of my girlfriend's friends have crossed back over from Laos in the last few months. It costs them 6,000 baht to cross the border and be driven to Bangkok. 

 

Shocking beyond belief - if true. 

[whaleboneman]

On 11/29/2020 at 11:25 AM, Sheryl said:

 

False positives are very rare - about 1 in 100 and, for 2 separate tests (as is routine when the 1st is positive, and as was done in her case) it's about 1 in 1,000.

 

False negatives are common, especially early in the disease and in mild or asymptomatic cases,  but not false positives.

 

Add to this that she is symptomatic. And was recently in an area of high transmission.

 

There is no question this woman has COVID.

 

However it is a bit premature to start panicking or speculating (as article in BP did today) that she is a "super spreader".

Thanks for bringing truth to this discussion. I just question your math. If false positives are 1 in a 100, then two tests should give a false positive in only 1 in 10,000. Am I missing something?

[AmySeeker]

 

 

Read through this thread to get a grasp on the latest goings on, investigation, and what happened.

 

Turns out half of it is just the same old nonsense with nuts saying 'covid does no harm', and 'testing is a waste of time' type nonsense. Mostly motivated because they want to return to Thailand and hit Nana Plaza. 

 

[richard_smith237]

24 minutes ago, whaleboneman said:

Thanks for bringing truth to this discussion. I just question your math. If false positives are 1 in a 100, then two tests should give a false positive in only 1 in 10,000. Am I missing something?

 

Correct. 

 

If the odds of a false positive are 1% the odds of 2 false positives are  1:10,000

= 1/100*1/100 = 0.0001 x 10,000 = 1

 

The Lancet reports estimated false positive figures of between 0.8 and 4.0% 

= 0.8/100*0.8/100 = 0.000064 x 15625 = 1 

= 4/100*4/100 = 0.0016 x 625 = 1

 

Thus the odds of 2 false positives in this case are between 1:625 and 1:15625 

 

 

 

 

 

[kiwikeith]

20 hours ago, scorecard said:

 

What is there to probe if she came into Thailand at a passport or border pass locations and were her documents checked?

 

If there is no check at border pass locations why not? Especially coming in from Myanmar where they have many new infections every day.

 

But no doubt it will take 30 days to investigate and it will never be mentioned again in the media who never follow up anything. 

I have sat down in the cafe under the taxhchilek bridge and watched people walk straight into Masai with a bundle on their heads 

[metisdead]

Some more posts with links to Conspiracy-Pseudoscience sources have been removed.  

 

Off topic deflection posts have been removed, this topic is about:

 

Authorities probing why Thai woman with Covid-19 was not quarantined

Edited November 30, 2020 by metisdead

[Sheryl]

7 hours ago, whaleboneman said:

Thanks for bringing truth to this discussion. I just question your math. If false positives are 1 in a 100, then two tests should give a false positive in only 1 in 10,000. Am I missing something?

No, you are right and I was off by a decimal.

 

Even if the rate was 4% (the range is .01 - .04), that is still only 4 in 10,000 (.4 in 1000) chance.

Effectively nil. Unless there is contamination of specimens within the lab, 2 positive PCR tests remove all doubt.

 

[Sheryl]

7 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

Correct. 

 

If the odds of a false positive are 1% the odds of 2 false positives are  1:10,000

= 1/100*1/100 = 0.0001 x 10,000 = 1

 

The Lancet reports estimated false positive figures of between 0.8 and 4.0% 

= 0.8/100*0.8/100 = 0.000064 x 15625 = 1 

= 4/100*4/100 = 0.0016 x 625 = 1

 

Thus the odds of 2 false positives in this case are between 1:625 and 1:15625 

 

 

 

 

 

.8% = .008 not .8

4% = .04 not 4

.008 * .008 = .000064  less than 1 in 10,000

.04 * .04 = .0016 , about 1.6 in 1,000 (less than 1 in 500)

[whaleboneman]

12 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

.8% = .008 not .8

4% = .04 not 4

.008 * .008 = .000064  less than 1 in 10,000

.04 * .04 = .0016 , about 1.6 in 1,000 (less than 1 in 500)

Coffee time Sheryl.

0.8/100=0.008

4/100=0.04

I believe Mr. Smith's math is correct.

But I still really appreciate your medical advice on this forum.

Thank you kindly.

[Sheryl]

18 minutes ago, whaleboneman said:

Coffee time Sheryl.

0.8/100=0.008

4/100=0.04

 

Which is what I said.

 

???

[Truth Will Set You Free]

23 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

On 11/29/2020 at 8:44 AM, petedk said:

Apart from that, she is Thai. She knows the rules about quarantine. She knows the seriousness of the situation. She knew she was sick, but still socialised. Give her the hardest possible punishment to deter others

The hardest possible punishment is death.Are you suggesting she should be put to death for getting sick?Is that to deter others from getting sick?Seems to be a bit of hate going around a symptom of this virus and a lot of fear and loathing

I would not suggest death but I would suggest life in prison if others are infected or die for her selflessness. That would be an good example.

 

This is a prime example of the new generation of the Thai women. Money, shopping and no consideration of others. This is what their mothers teach them to be.

 

As for the borders being open and allowing Thais to come in and not tested is not the people fault alone. Everyone in the chain should be placed in jail as well for not ensuring everyone coming in are test and quarantined. 
 

So let’s see just how many domestic cases pop up in the news.  I think it’s fake news. 

[whaleboneman]

22 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Which is what I said.

 

???

Sorry, I thought you were showing Mr. Smith that his numbers were wrong and I was showing they are correct. My mistake. Cheers.

[0815]

On 11/29/2020 at 9:05 AM, Jeffr2 said:

I've stayed near the border checkpoint before.  On the left as you are looking at Myanmar. People crossed the river there illegally all night.  Some just waded across, others got into huge bins and were taken across.  I've seen this also happen in many places around Thailand.  It's a very porous border.

Did you stay at that cozy guesthouse too ? ????
Before Covid it was much cheaper for people to cross the river at night, that's the only difference...

[In the jungle]

About 50 km from where I live there is a dirt road that crosses into Myanmar. 

 

The border is not marked and there is no border post.  The only way you would know that you crossed the border is by looking at GPS.

 

There are probably hundreds if not thousands of crossing points like this  and it is practically impossible to police them all.

[ThailandRyan]

49 minutes ago, Truth Will Set You Free said:

I would not suggest death but I would suggest life in prison if others are infected or die for her selflessness. That would be an good example.

 

This is a prime example of the new generation of the Thai women. Money, shopping and no consideration of others. This is what their mothers teach them to be.

 

As for the borders being open and allowing Thais to come in and not tested is not the people fault alone. Everyone in the chain should be placed in jail as well for not ensuring everyone coming in are test and quarantined. 
 

So let’s see just how many domestic cases pop up in the news.  I think it’s fake news. 

Why would a Covid case be fake news. Do you believe the Thai government is deliberately trying to tank their domestic tourism, or creating a potential protestor shutdown by shutting the countries provinces next.

[anchadian]

 

According to Thai PBS, two more COVID-19 cases found in Chiang Rai. The two new cases work in the same place as the 29-year-old woman in Chiang Mai who tested positive for the virus, after returning from Myanmar

[phetchy]

On 11/29/2020 at 8:28 AM, mtls2005 said:

 

I smell a committee being formed.

 

I wonder if she will be prosecuted? Have to pay for the closure of Central Festival Mall for cleaning?

 

 

 

 

Far from it.  By publicising their undercover re-entry to Thailand, these women have shown that their stupidity and lack of foresight have demonstrated that they are eminently suitable for cabinet positions when Prayut's inevitable downfall comes.     

[Artisi]

Why is this still being commented on, it's over a day old now and already forgotten about by the authorities. 

[mtls2005]

Two more Thai women, who worked at the same bar in Myanmar, slipped into Chaing Rai. Also infected.

 

Chiang Rai province on COVID-19 alert after two Thais back from Myanmar infected

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/chiang-rai-province-on-covid-19-alert-after-two-thais-back-from-myanmar-infected/

[anchadian]

4 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

Two more Thai women, who worked at the same bar in Myanmar, slipped into Chaing Rai. Also infected.

 

Chiang Rai province on COVID-19 alert after two Thais back from Myanmar infected

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/chiang-rai-province-on-covid-19-alert-after-two-thais-back-from-myanmar-infected/

Already posted.....see above.

[ThailandRyan]

Lets see what develops in the next few days with these cases.  I have a trip scheduled to Chaing Mai here at the end of the week, but a lot will depend upon what the Government and provincial folks do.  I truly hope that the Month of December does not have drastic measures taken.

[Rimmer]

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