Thailand reports daily record of over 2,000 COVID-19 cases, 4 new deaths

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, Amdesign said:

You have problems with understanding? I say that if local transmissions is high, then liberal entry restrictions are reasonable. This means that if the infection rate in country is high already, there is little point to tight control the bring-in cases. This factor will be minor compared to local transmission.

 

Seems maths and science are not Your stong side, man ????

Oh ye have no true understanding Sir of my background, but that does not matter.  What you are proposing will just allow the numbers to blossom upwards and for the deaths to skyrocket more.  I guess you would be happy with that just so you could conduct business.  On your way lad times a wasting, Government House awaits your presence in front of the CCSA since you have a clear plan for opening up the country 100% so money can be made.

 

This post contains a smattering of sarcasm, mixed with a smattering of truth.

[Amdesign]

2 minutes ago, Nismooo said:

Do you really think you would make up for that by opening up the borders? No

 

I am not talking on opening the borders to mass tourism at this stage. I am talking about opening for business travellers first.

Many businesses are suffering - quarantine requirement is a barrier. If no travel, no contracts and no jobs - that's simple. Factories are shutting down.

 

International arrivals come with test certificate, and now also with vaccination. Risk is low comared to local tranmisions and illegal migrations.

The government should not try to eliminmate all cases, this is practically impossible. They should try to mitigate the situation.

[Bkk Brian]

17 minutes ago, Amdesign said:

You have problems with understanding? I say that if local transmissions is high, then liberal entry restrictions are reasonable. This means that if the infection rate in country is high already, there is little point to tight control the bring-in cases. This factor will be minor compared to local transmission.

 

Seems maths and science are not Your stong side, man ????

I think I get it, its called adding fuel to the fire right?

[Bkk Brian]

39 minutes ago, Amdesign said:

Exaclty, no control over migrants, and no testing for them. This is confirmed by December spike of infections.

Was that migrants or was it the Thai's returning from Mynmar?

[Amdesign]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

Was that migrants or was it the Thai's returning from Mynmar?

Both. But the problem is the same - low control over the border.

People just ignore entry measures as they are too complicated.

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, Marvin Hagler said:

I do really think the government have no real idea what the situation is or how to manage it. 

That's what happens when you appoint generals and not experts in positions

[rabas]

1 hour ago, Amdesign said:

Accept vaccinated travellers with tests, without quarantine. Risk is marginal, as from the statistics above. Start from business travellers first.

 

All variants will be here anyway. Thailand is not a island. People cross the border in jungle, hundreds of them every day. Due to severe enty restrictions migrants enter illegally, thus out of any control. Reducing the restrctions would allow to regain the control, this is quite clear...

 

This virus with its variants will stay and will not go away for years. Economics is of not less importance than health concerns.

 

Quarantine is essential, not testing. Testing 3 days before travel can't stop covid entering a country. Covid can be undetectable up to 6 days after infection. Thailand's quarantine successfully stopped a dozen cases of the UK variant before it snuck in from Cambodia.

[Amdesign]

9 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

 I guess you would be happy with that just so you could conduct business. 

 

The money from business are needed to survide in the COVID crisis. For a person it does not matter if they die from the virus or from starving.

Thus, someone should understand and manage the risks in reasonable way.

 

Those who used to spend all time drinking in bar are only concerned about alcohol sales ban... ????

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Amdesign said:

Both. But the problem is the same - low control over the border.

People just ignore entry measures as they are too complicated.

Either way whats needed now is a full lockdown. You talk about risk management, there you have it, contain the risk as soon as possible to get it over with as soon as possible, in tandem with the vaccines so we can get out of this mess. Forget vigilante border controls, it would be perfect but not in the corruption fueled border control police.

[RichardColeman]

Congrats Thailand - back in poll position with 900% with weekly % death change.

 

 

[Sheryl]

1 hour ago, dcsw53 said:

Is this because the new strain is more infectious, or a sign that the current measures are not working ? If the numbers rise next week again, that cannot be blamed on Songkran travel and shows a deeper problem. With the government's inability to source and accredit vaccines ( unless you are a hiso ) the signs aren't good.

 

1. The new strain is indeed morei nfectious.

 

2. It is too soon to expect top see results of current measures.

 

3. The effects of Songkran travel will continue to be seen for several weeks or more. Incubation can be up to 14 days and cases do not usually get detected right away. In addition, the biggest impact will come not from the first round of infections but from their multiplier effect. Indeed will often not even be identified until then since many cases are asymptomatic.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Today's English language televised COVID update from the government runs about 17 minutes.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/thailandprd/videos/582090193183940/

 

And, the 20+ pages of presentation slides used by the Ministry of Public Health today in their daily briefing can be found here:

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/311247777160220

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[RichardColeman]

2 minutes ago, rabas said:

Thailand's quarantine successfully stopped a dozen cases of the UK variant before it snuck in from Cambodia.

Shame quarantining and testing did not stop Thais exporting it to Laos then. works both ways

[Amdesign]

Just now, rabas said:

 

Quarantine is essential, not testing. Testing 3 days before travel can't stop covid entering a country. Covid can be undetectable up to 6 days after infection. Thailand's quarantine successfully stopped a dozen cases of the UK variant before it snuck in from Cambodia.

You think of few possible cases, but not of risk management. 0.38% of al lcases are from international arrivals. This is very low risk compared to the local transmission.

[ThailandRyan]

19 minutes ago, Amdesign said:

Both. But the problem is the same - low control over the border.

People just ignore entry measures as they are too complicated.

So your answer is to just throw caution to the wind, open up the borders test all, and let the virus rip wherever it may because of the need for businessmen to travel for work.  They have been traveling for work all along if you would look at the Visas required and the quarantine that has been in place for those arriving.  You want a free ride into the country for a few days and then back out again without the need for quarantine because you believe you are being disenfranchised.  That's the view I see from your responses, your posts, and at the same time I see that you could care less about the people of Thailand in the big picture of health and life, and are looking for businesses to stay afloat.  Technical experts are needed and they can enter the country.  Do the right paperwork, arrive, go through Quarantine and then your in.  They have even in the past made exceptions for certain companies, where they isolated the workers upon arrival and ensure they had no contact with others.

Edited April 23, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Sheryl]

6 minutes ago, Amdesign said:

Both. But the problem is the same - low control over the border.

People just ignore entry measures as they are too complicated.

I suspect Thais going to the border casinos is much more likely source of this than migrant workers.

 

Same demographic as the Thonglor night spots.

[Amdesign]

10 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Either way whats needed now is a full lockdown.

Lockdown is only needed if medical facilities are not sufficient to cover heavy cases. This is basic, from risk management side.

They need to look at infection rate per 100,000 population. In EU, if say 50 for 100,000 they impose a lockdown.

Edited April 23, 2021 by Amdesign

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, Amdesign said:

Lockdown is only needed if medical facilities are not sufficient to cover heave cases. This is basic, from risk management side.

They need to look at infection rate per 100,000 population. In EU, if say 50 for 100,000 they impose a lockdown.

You are wrong, lockdown is needed to avoid the hospitals being overwhelmed. To avoid further unnecessary deaths and serious illness

 

This is basic risk management.

 

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Amdesign]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

So your answer is to just throw caution to the wind, open up the borders

...

workers upon arrival and ensure they had no contact with others.

Tell this to factories which have closed down, and families left without income...

Test on arrival will help to bring illegal migration under control, and allow businesses to function.

[Amdesign]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

You are wrong, lockdown is needed to avoid the hospitals being overwhelmed. 

 

This is basic risk management.

 

 

This is exactly what I am saying.

[Sheryl]

Of the 4 fatalities, one was only 29 years old.

 

There are also now cases in elderly care homes, which may lead to considerably more deaths if nto quickly controlled.

 

https://www.facebook.com/thailandprd/videos/582090193183940/

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Amdesign said:

This is exactly what I am saying.

But you said you didn't agree with lockdown right?

[Nismooo]

3 minutes ago, Amdesign said:

I am not talking on opening the borders to mass tourism at this stage. I am talking about opening for business travellers first.

Many businesses are suffering - quarantine requirement is a barrier. If no travel, no contracts and no jobs - that's simple. Factories are shutting down.

 

International arrivals come with test certificate, and now also with vaccination. Risk is low comared to local tranmisions and illegal migrations.

The government should not try to eliminmate all cases, this is practically impossible. They should try to mitigate the situation.

 

Didnt Europe already try this? How did that work?

 

Also Thailand does not have the same resources as the european countries. 

 

I must agree to disagree with you on that one. 

 

”Test certificates”, well.

Everyone entering Thailand since October have had a so called ”negative test certificate”. Then why is it that there has been around 10-20 covid cases reported in quarantine basically every single day since then? The only time those numbers went down was after 1st April...

 

Vaccines, yes ok but do they work against the new mutations? Do they prevent people from spreading the virus? I can not say for sure, so why take the risk until we know more? Last time i checked people were getting vaccinated in other countries even before the new outbreak in Thailand anyway. 

 

Illegal immigrants, i can not comment on that though since i dont know enough about it unfortunally. 

[ThailandRyan]

8 minutes ago, Amdesign said:

The money from business are needed to survide in the COVID crisis. For a person it does not matter if they die from the virus or from starving.

Thus, someone should understand and manage the risks in reasonable way.

 

Those who used to spend all time drinking in bar are only concerned about alcohol sales ban... ????

So now you believe I sit in a bar all day drinking, what next, are you going to say I am a Sexpat.  If you believe this then you are truly deceived by your own mindset in believing your view is correct.  The Thai Government does believe they are managing the risks in an acceptable way.  I just do not agree with their testing philosophy.  Never sat in a bar in my life, successfully ran my own company as a CEO, but do to covid I closed up, laid off my employee's, gave them severance packages which were generous, and moved into retirement 100%.  Some of us made wise decisions while others did not and therefore finances matter more to others.  Enjoy your day, stay safe.

[Osthos]

1 minute ago, Sheryl said:

Of the 4 fatalities, one was only 29 years old.

 

Most of the fatalities so far in the 20-40 range have been people with obesity. 

 

Time to lay off the processed foods, sugar, and carbs, return to a more traditional diet.

[rabas]

13 minutes ago, Amdesign said:

You think of few possible cases, but not of risk management. 0.38% of al lcases are from international arrivals. This is very low risk compared to the local transmission.

I understand risk and probability well. We are discussing the introduction of a new dangerous variant. It does not come from local cases.

 

Lets look at real data.  12 times the UK variant tried to enter the country through quarantine since December. (see GISAID, Thailand sequences all cases in quarantine). All were stopped. Then one case  snuck in from Cambodia.  Without quarantine the UK wave would have hit long ago.

Edited April 23, 2021 by rabas

[Amdesign]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

 Never sat in a bar in my life, successfully ran my own company as a CEO, but do to covid I closed up, laid off my employee's, gave them severance packages which were generous, and moved into retirement 100%. 

This is the difference between us. We did not close down, did not kick the staff out and my people are getting salries. And we keep paying taxes here, thus supporting the country. But some reasonable management from governemnt is needed to help the businesses...

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, Amdesign said:

Lockdown is only needed if medical facilities are not sufficient to cover heavy cases. This is basic, from risk management side.

They need to look at infection rate per 100,000 population. In EU, if say 50 for 100,000 they impose a lockdown.

This isn't the EU so stop comparing it as such.  The hospitals here are very full, the field hospitals are isolating people and now they have Hospitels to assist as well.  Testing more is needed in my view in order to see the true numbers, but by doing so will only increase the numbers in all of the facilities.

[Amdesign]

1 minute ago, rabas said:

I understand risk and probability well. We are discussing the introduction of a new dangerous variant. It does not happen from local cases.

 

Lets look at real data.  12 times the UK variant tried to enter the country through quarantine since December. (see GISAID, Thailand sequences all cases in quarantine). All were stopped. Then one case  snuck in from Cambodia.  Without quarantine the UK wave would have started long ago.

I could agree with that. But the variants will be here anyway, by illegal crossing. They are already here.

And look - the UK arrivals are not in 14 days quarantine list, though African are. UK arrival can quarantine 7 or 10 days...

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Amdesign said:

I could agree with that. But the variants will be here anyway, by illegal crossing. They are already here.

And look - the UK arrivals are not in 14 days quarantine list, though African are. UK arrival can quarantine 7 or 10 days...

So the only solution is lockdown to contain this as soon as possible, coupled with vaccines. 

 

Keep things open then we just face the risk or prolonging it further and businesses will suffer even more.