SURVEY: Will infections stabilize in 2-3 weeks?

[Phoenix Rising]

4 minutes ago, xylophone said:

Another nonsense post from that particular person (that is why I have him on ignore) and to add to your polio link (a disease that was around in my childhood days) may I add this re Smallpox......

 

Smallpox is a highly contagious and deadly disease caused by the variola virus. It was estimated to have infected 300 million people in the 20th Century before it became the only human infectious disease ever to be completely eradicated

Indeed. Polio is just one of many, many examples of the enormous benefits vaccines have brought to the human population. 

Edited April 25, 2021 by Phoenix Rising

[Jeffr2]

5 minutes ago, Phoenix Rising said:

So people refuting false and potentially dangerous claims made by other people are small minded? Well, we could potentially discuss this further but it would be off topic and hurtful to my neck as the horse you sit on is so high.

I'm not sure what you're on about. But agree. Not worth discussing.

[xylophone]

2 minutes ago, Phoenix Rising said:

Indeed, Polio was just one of many, many examples of the enormous benefits vaccines have brought to the human population. 

Yes I totally agree with you, and as I said in my post, polio was around when I was a child and I was vaccinated against it, even though a little later we had the "vaccine" given to us in a sugar cube.

 

It was quite common to see kids of my age with calipers on their legs, and at my primary and secondary school, I used to push a friend of mine around in his wheelchair, because he had polio in both legs and couldn't walk.

 

Another girl I knew had the same, and we also had a man, who was in an iron lung, which was fitted into the back of a large van, who used to be brought around the town to give "lectures/speeches" on why we should get the vaccination and so on.

 

I will be forever grateful to the vaccinations which were given to us as kids, because I've benefited from them.

[Phoenix Rising]

1 minute ago, Jeffr2 said:

I'm not sure what you're on about. But agree. Not worth discussing.

I think you know since you deleted the parts of the post I quoted but never mind, let's focus on the topic at hand.

Personally I think this is "the big one" (wave) for Thailand. It might have been possible to avoid it if the government took decisive measures after the "HiSo outbreak" in Bangkok but unfortunately the general didn't have the minerals to cancel yet another Songkran so here we are.

[Jeffr2]

Just now, Phoenix Rising said:

I think you know since you deleted the parts of the post I quoted but never mind, let's focus on the topic at hand.

Personally I think this is "the big one" (wave) for Thailand. It might have been possible to avoid it if the government took decisive measures after the "HiSo outbreak" in Bangkok but unfortunately the general didn't have the minerals to cancel yet another Songkran so here we are.

Hmmm....I'm on a phone. Sure didn't intend to alter the quoted post. Sorry!

 

100% in agreement with you!!!!!

[tomyami]

3 hours ago, Olmate said:

You came here to eat farang food??

Yes and you cant even wash it down with a large chang LOL

Edited April 25, 2021 by tomyami

[thmebe]

Hello, I found this page when trying to understand why this time they do not stop the virus as easily as before ? What are they waiting to close everything ? Any idea ? Thank you.

[connda]

On 4/24/2021 at 5:14 AM, Scott said:

calling on hospitals to bolster protection by dispensing Creat

I find it amazing that people who may have dismissed the effectiveness of alternative therapies that are published in medicinal journals push a herbal medicine that has no standing with the global medical community and is most likely no better than a placebo.
Try double-blind studies with Creat and publish the results in The Lancet.  Then I might accept this as something other then feel-good snake-oil peddling. 
What are these "doctors" doing other then a psychological manipulation of the public's perceptions in order to calm the herd before they stampede.
The medical community just continues to lose credibility as they tread the path of miracle cures.  When they give patients Creat they should have a chanting monk toss holy water on them too.
My guess is that would be just as effective.
Want to make the patients feel better.  Give them some of Anutin's GPO CBD/THC oil so they can feel better as they combat the virus, but "No No No!"  Thai doctors are loath to provide palliative care for the suffering.  Then provide proven anti-viral medicines - Oh, but wait!  In the almost a year since Covid hit they Thai medical agencies and government failed not only to obtain vaccines but failed to obtain sufficient quantities of anti-Covid medicines.  Abject failure!
"No give pain medicine.  People get Covid have bad Karma.  Not doctor job to make Karma suffering better.  No no no!"
No.  It's their karma to have a witch-doctor give them Creat <head shake> ????

Edited April 25, 2021 by connda

[trainman34014]

3 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Disagree, most Thai food is full of sugar and MSG.

Not when my Mrs cooks it !

[connda]

3 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I think it will continue until everyone susceptible has had it, same as with colds and flu.

Vaccinations just won't work, and are more likely to cause further harm.

Same with every country, viral disease can't be stopped (in my lifetime anyway).

Just my opinion.

But you need a vaccine that will not stop the recipient from contracting or spreading Covid; but,
We promise the vaccines will create herd-immunity.  <confused> ????

So will being in contact with a sufficient number of people who have had Covid.  I'm pretty sure everyone in our valley had it last year.  Sore throat, sniffles, then racking coughs lasting for two weeks to a month.  Hospitals refused to test.  I find it amusing to watch people like my wife freaking out about number.  "Oh my oh my.  1280 people new cases.  Oh my!"  Out of a population of 70 million. 
People like Gates whose financial holding in pharmaceutical companies provides a clear conflict of interest injected the claim that "only vaccinations create herd immunity" and that is now accepted as gospel.  But a few million years of evolution sort of discounts the fact that prior to 2020 the immune system of animals create herd immunity against pathogens over time.  That's why it's called "herd immunity" which is a reference to epidemiological observations regarding the spreading of a pathogens though a herd of animals. 
But that doesn't exist anymore?  Yes, it still does.  Those vaccinated will simply add to the pool of those who develop natural herd immunity as the virus spread.
For anyone who takes the time to read scientific literature, there is a case for a vaccinating a proportion of the population to assist in developing herd immunity.  Vaccinating the entire population?  Not necessary as natural resistance to pathogens will develop in the unvaccinated.  However the same studies do not discount natural herd immunity, just that a combination of natural and vaccinates members of a population get you to herd immunity faster. 
For anyone interested in researching this look up "The history of herd immunity." 

[natway09]

A 10 day full lockdown is required apart from essential food shops, 7/11's  incl chemists.

they open 11-6pm only

Malls should close.

Wats should close (Buddha understands)

All non essential like service garages should close (your car will wait)

Inter provincial  travel except for freight trucks etc banned.

Flights ,buses etc inter provincial also banned.

Tough decisions are the only way to break the chain or there will be no tourism for 18 months & the Government will loose control.

This is not the time for any group to "buck the system"

any form of Anarchy would spell disaster right now & believe me they are waiting in the wings

 

[connda]

1 minute ago, connda said:

However the same studies do not discount natural herd immunity, just that a combination of natural and vaccinates members of a population get you to herd immunity faster. 
For anyone interested in researching this look up "The history of herd immunity." 

One of the interesting foible I see in the scientific literature is that scientists (who are suppose to be objective and unbiased) balk at the use of the term "herd" in reference to the spread of pathogens though a human population.  "Human's aren't animals!"  Well, yes we are.  "Human's don't form herds."  Well, yes we do.  Each relatively separated and semi-isolated population of humans is a herd, and we are animals.  Well, unless the entire population of scientist have suddenly discovered Christianity.  This bias however effects their perceptions which effects their research.
Humans reach "herd immunity" annually as various cold viruses and flus sweep through the populations.  There are no "Cold Vaccines" therefore immunity to a SARS-based cold virus is extinguish in the population through natural herd immunity and no other mechanism.  So to hold the position that natural herd immunity is non-existence is ludicrous.  Especially with common colds which are an inconvenience and sometimes deadly for vulnerable members of the population.  Does natural immunity suppress all pathogens?  Of course not.  But cold viruses are a perfect example of pathogens for which no vaccine is available.  The only way human-kind reaches herd immunity for a stain of cold virus is through natural herd immunity.
So holding the position that natural herd immunity is non-existence in the human animal population is simply a bias, but definitely a position held by those with a financial interest in vaccine technologies whether through research grants or through profits derived though the sale of vaccines. 

[unblocktheplanet]

7 hours ago, DerbyDan said:

If there was a delayed onset that means the major second and third waves are on the way.

 

Main thing is to keep things locked down if cases go down, and not bow to pressure to open things up the minute cases go down.

 

When cases go down it does not mean the virus is going away. It means it's resting for another wave.

 

In the USA and India they kept opening things up at every chance making people vulnerable to a huge sneaker wave coming in.

 

It's just a denial and lots of people can't deal with social isolation so there is huge pressure to open things back up too soon.

Exactly, the point! Govt has made a crucial error in judgment by opening to business pressure. We eradicated Covid over several months in 2020. We need a HARD LOCKDOWN again, NOW!

[scorecard]

9 hours ago, Credo said:

I think Thailand is in for a rough road ahead.   Some of the variants going around are much more infectious than this already very infectious disease.   Cases are rising in a number of countries, including India.  I suspect vaccines are going to be in short supply as will many medical necessities.   

 

Good points, and I add:

 

Original survey:

# Yes, they will stabilize in that time period.

# Yes, but they will stabilize at a much higher rate than now.

# No, they will continue to climb.

# No, they drop.

 

I add   # Yes they will stabilize, perhaps 2 to 3 months from now.

 

Then I will vote...

Edited April 25, 2021 by scorecard

[xylophone]

2 hours ago, connda said:

People like Gates whose financial holding in pharmaceutical companies provides a clear conflict of interest

 

1 hour ago, connda said:

So holding the position that natural herd immunity is non-existence in the human animal population is simply a bias, but definitely a position held by those with a financial interest in vaccine technologies whether through research grants or through profits derived though the sale of vaccines. 

In general I like most of your posts, however I do not like the references to the likes of Bill Gates, which tries to paint him in a bad light, and is totally unnecessary.

 

Bill and Melinda Gates have donated more than $50 billion to charitable causes and medical research, so I don't really think he needs to "manipulate the data" in order to improve his bottom line.

 

Credit where credit is due please.

[Caldera]

I'm missing an "It depends" option. Clearly, more measures will be imposed within days. I'd guess they will be effective eventually, but it might take 3-4 weeks from now to see a slowdown in numbers.

[new2here]

14 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

If they continue to crack down like they are doing now, the rates will level off and then go down.  Just like they've done in the past. 

 

But we might have a rough few weeks until that happens.

i absolutely agree.  i also think that concurrent with this is the question of exactly how many people are tested and from what “pool”. By that i mean IF you test relatively speaking few, then there is some expectation that you’ll find a correspondingly low number of cases.. so ... i think one of the keys will be testing— how many and from where/who.

 

While i get it that having/reporting a large positive number looks bad, drives negative public sentiment and other negative related matters, to me, if you don’t find out exactly who is and who isn’t positive, it’s really hard to effectively manage and hopefully contain the virus and spread.   You kind of get backed into the position of being REactive as opposed to more PROactive in your efforts. 

[Dogmatix]

Favipiravir pills?  God help us.

[Dogmatix]

2 hours ago, new2here said:

i absolutely agree.  i also think that concurrent with this is the question of exactly how many people are tested and from what “pool”. By that i mean IF you test relatively speaking few, then there is some expectation that you’ll find a correspondingly low number of cases.. so ... i think one of the keys will be testing— how many and from where/who.

 

While i get it that having/reporting a large positive number looks bad, drives negative public sentiment and other negative related matters, to me, if you don’t find out exactly who is and who isn’t positive, it’s really hard to effectively manage and hopefully contain the virus and spread.   You kind of get backed into the position of being REactive as opposed to more PROactive in your efforts. 

 

In the second wave they had large numbers of captive Burmese workers concentrated in a small area they could compulsorily test which yielded large clusters and large numbers of positive cases.  Now with have a multitude of clusters that have been spread all over the country so that the clusters are becoming no longer identifiable and they don't know who to test.  That seems to point to something that is difficult to contain and will have an exponential growth rate. 

[DavisH]

14 hours ago, mfd101 said:

This will go on & on & on till the government gets at least 60% or 70% of the population vaccinated. No way that will be done before 2022. The whole world is scrabbling for vaccines and Thailand is way way back at the end of the pack.

 

Meanwhile, this morning part of my family arrived from the family farm 40km away, to cut the grass round our house. 3 adults, 1 teenager, 2 small children. Not a mask in sight.

Are they likely catchign covid cutting your grass? You can always give them a box of masks. And educate them if they don't know. 

[Sheryl]

17 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

If they continue to crack down like they are doing now, the rates will level off and then go down.  Just like they've done in the past. 

 

But we might have a rough few weeks until that happens.

 

Agree

 

 And may take more than 2 weeks. I did not vote for that reason, no longer option given.

[A1Str8]

Even if they stabilize for some time, it will rise again. You can't outsmart the virus. It's self correcting. It mutates to survive. 

[Albert Zweistein]

10 hours ago, thmebe said:

Hello, I found this page when trying to understand why this time they do not stop the virus as easily as before ? What are they waiting to close everything ? Any idea ? Thank you.

Some people has to make some money on it first.

[Sheryl]

13 hours ago, BritManToo said:

 viral disease can't be stopped (in my lifetime anyway).

Just my opinion.

 Quire a few viral diseases once prevalent have been stopped through vaccination.

 

One (smallpox) has been completely eliminated from the earth.

 

Another (polio) is close to eradication.

 

And many have been brought under control to the point that cases are now very rare in most countries (e.g. measles, mumps, rubella, chicken pox).

 

All viruses. And controlled within your lifetime assuming you are over 65.

 

Countries which have immunized significant portions of their population for COVID have seen huge declines in cases.

[Albert Zweistein]

1 hour ago, Dogmatix said:

Favipiravir pills?  God help us.

And Buddha.

[tgw]

It's difficult to speculate about the effects of probable measures that could be taken in the next few days, but what Thailand needs right now is a Wuhan-Style lockdown, because they missed the opportunity to contain this before Songkran.

 

If the ministry continues to make irresponsible statements such as "it will be under control in 3 weeks", containment will simply not work.

[Meat Pie 47]

13 hours ago, DerbyDan said:

 

I did an unscientific survey of many people when deciding whether to get vaccinated or not. I asked many people in my life whether they were getting the vaccine.

 

Without fail, the ones who did not want it were very low educated and kind of dumb in a way. Dummies. Not for their answer, but in general.

 

It's why I am set on getting vaccinated myself.

you forgot Trump supporters

[Jingthing]

44 minutes ago, simtemple said:

What is happening in India is  instructional. For all those who believe the vaccine will deliver salvation, India's experience paints a different picture. 

 

 

 

How is it instructional? Aren't only about 10 percent of India's population vaccinated? 

[Scott]

Posts with unapproved sources have been removed.  

 

[Jeffr2]

10 hours ago, new2here said:

i absolutely agree.  i also think that concurrent with this is the question of exactly how many people are tested and from what “pool”. By that i mean IF you test relatively speaking few, then there is some expectation that you’ll find a correspondingly low number of cases.. so ... i think one of the keys will be testing— how many and from where/who.

 

While i get it that having/reporting a large positive number looks bad, drives negative public sentiment and other negative related matters, to me, if you don’t find out exactly who is and who isn’t positive, it’s really hard to effectively manage and hopefully contain the virus and spread.   You kind of get backed into the position of being REactive as opposed to more PROactive in your efforts. 

Every stat you need is here.  Looks like they are doing 50k tests per day right now.

 

https://github.com/djay/covidthailand/#tests-per-confirmed-case