Thailand reports new daily record of 47 coronavirus deaths, 3,323 infections

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, sandyf said:

The majority on this forum steadfastly refuse to accept how well the crisis was dealt with in the first year or so. Between Aug and Christmas last year I traveled the length and breadth of Thailand without a problem, something residents of many other countries could only dream about. 

Since Christmas there has been outbreaks, but what country hasn't suffered from outbreaks and no country has been free from failings in one form or another.

The hatred and bigotry directed towards the Thai government on this forum is unbelievable and those that claim to come from a civilised society should be ashamed. This cannot be dressed up as some form of criticism, the underlying problem is fairly obvious.

This is Thailand and if people do not like the way they do things they are perfectly free to move to a more acceptable environment.

 

If you contact them, as one of the few left in the nation who still defend the government, you might be able to arrange a PR retainer. The results of the first wave were likely due to dumb luck, it appears. 

 

Very lame. Nearly every time I see someone complaining, or observing a shortfall within Thailand, some guy, who has not taken the time to think things through, nor to devote any focus or effort to a reasonable reply, says something like "Perhaps Thailand is not for you", or maybe you should leave, or the top prize, "if you do not like it here, go back to your own country". Hard to even respond to such statements. Why? Because I have some issues with the place? Sorry to inform you, but the nature of a discerning mind, is to have issues. Though absolute contentment must be a beautiful state of mind, it is not something most of us are blessed with, in case you have not noticed. The fact that I complain, does not mean I do not love Thailand, nor most of it's people. I do. I love my life here. I have a very good life here. But, I do have some complaints, and there are some things I would love to see improved. I should leave because of that? Please. Next time you make a post, try to devote at least two moments of thought to it.

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Does that come before Christmas day?

After boxing day, which apparently was today for Anutin and Prayut.

[Ginner]

8 hours ago, dinsdale said:

88 deaths in two days. Thailand now number 84 on the covid charts up 35 spots in around a month and a half. Victoria, Australia about to go into a 7 day maybe more lockdown with an outbreak of 26 positives and numerous infection sites. Bangkok and surrounds, community transmission 2-2.5k every day. Around 200x the infections of Victoria in one day (yesterday Victoria found 11 new cases which makes up the 26 day before was 15) with around 3-4x the population. No lockdown. 

With Thailand going on about opening up to tourist on 1st of July. I would think they should be more worried about tourist wanting to visit Thailand the way the infection and death rate is going up. Even a fully vaccinated person can still contract and pass the virus.

 

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, wensiensheng said:

Testing will help identify positive cases earlier, allowing people to self isolate before infecting so many others and hopefully stop clusters developing. So in your example, testing might have helped reduce the positive number of cases from 2000 to 1500. That in turn reduces deaths.

 

There are plenty of variables involved but the essence of it is, identify positive people before they infect others.

The Case Fatality Rate is the ratio of deaths to positive cases. 

 

Your argument is that reducing positive cases somehow reduces the Case Fatality Rate, is not true. 

 

CFR relates to a given pool of positive cases, today's 2000 cases, for example. They are probably going to have a CFR around 0.5%, meaning somewhere around 10 are going to die. There is no way for you to change that by testing other people. 

 

Reducing deaths is a good thing. Reducing cases is a good thing.  There isn't enough testing. 

 

[Danderman123]

3 minutes ago, Ginner said:

With Thailand going on about opening up to tourist on 1st of July. I would think they should be more worried about tourist wanting to visit Thailand the way the infection and death rate is going up. Even a fully vaccinated person can still contract and pass the virus.

 

The Case Fatality Rate in Thailand is far lower than in most other countries. 

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

You need some education on the relationship between testing and case fatality.

 

Impact of virus testing on COVID-19 case fatality rate:

 

The increase of one percentage point in the test rate is associated with a decrease of 0.001 percentage point in the death rate. In other words, for each additional 1000 tests, one person would have remained alive.

 

COVID-19 intensive screening policies were significantly associated with a decrease in the fatality-case rate in France. These results support the implementation of mass screening strategies and could provide important information for decision-makers in the fight against SARS-CoV2 pandemic. 

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20080531v1

 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341337672_Impact_of_Virus_Testing_on_COVID-19_Case_Fatality_Rate_Estimate_Using_a_Fixed-Effects_Model

Well that was stupid. 

 

Countries with excellent testing have excellent hospitals, so more patients survive. 

 

Duhhh...

 

Oh, and the second study admits no statistically significant correlation. 

Edited May 27, 2021 by Danderman123

[Danderman123]

50 minutes ago, 2 is 1 said:

Brian already told you how testing effect the numbers how many die. Also if testing more maybe find many covid victim what is not now in numbers.

You lost the plot. 

 

We were talking about the Case Fatality Rate, not the overall death rate. 

[Danderman123]

53 minutes ago, 2 is 1 said:

Brian already told you how testing effect the numbers how many die. Also if testing more maybe find many covid victim what is not now in numbers.

No, Brian provided links to 2 incredibly weak studies. One admitted that the correlation was not statistically significant. 

 

[DrJack54]

17 minutes ago, TaoNow said:

 

 Sandy:  I made this same point a few days back; but the Forum didn't seem to appreciate the warning. 

 

We'll just have to let the haters hate, I guess.

Let's start at when borders were closed.

NZ March 19. Next day AU many countries closed prior. Think Vietnam very similar ~18

Thailand March 26.

One small example. Everything Thai gov did was lock step copy of other countries.

Who can forget the plane with returning Thai who kicked up stink at airport and went home instead of quarantine.

 

I would need to type for an hour to list how poorly it was handled. No one yet knows why Thailand did so well with the numbers. Certainly not down to management from gov. 

 

Fast forward to the present. The daily press releases from ministers up to the PM is a monty python pantomime.

Then we come to the ridiculous roll out of vaccine program. 

It's a real life comedy show.

It's not Thai bashers calling out flip flop, it's any thinking person. Absolute disgrace.

Edited May 27, 2021 by DrJack54

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Well that was stupid. 

 

Countries with excellent testing have excellent hospitals, so more patients survive. 

 

Duhhh...

 

Oh, and the second study admits no statistically significant correlation. 

They are both the same study just on different sites and come to the same conclusions the second link you need to download the study, I just gave it as an example as it also contained the peer reviews that authenticate the claims:

 

"The increase of one percentage point in the test rate is associated with a decrease of 0.001 percentage point in the death rate. In other words, for each additional 1000 tests, one person would have remained alive.

 

COVID-19 intensive screening policies were significantly associated with a decrease in the fatality-case rate in France. These results support the implementation of mass screening strategies and could provide important information for decision-makers in the fight against SARS-CoV2 pandemic."

 

However you are still obviously having a problem comprehending its contents. That is your problem however if you don't understand basic science thats explained.

[Bkk Brian]

13 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

No, Brian provided links to 2 incredibly weak studies. One admitted that the correlation was not statistically significant. 

 

False, look again both same studies

[ThailandRyan]

26 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Well that was stupid. 

 

Countries with excellent testing have excellent hospitals, so more patients survive. 

 

Duhhh...

 

Oh, and the second study admits no statistically significant correlation. 

So Thailand's hospitals and health service system is not excellent in your view.  It is very sad that you see it this way when the world sees it in the top 6 nations for its health services and then has 1 hospital Ranked in the top 12 in the world.

 

12 Best Hospitals In The World | 2021 Edition - RankRed

 

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2019/09/10/thailand-healthcare-system-world-sixth-public-health-service-system/

 

Tell us more about why they are not excellent or why you personally believe other than what the world rankings show.

 

For 2020 they were ranked in at 47th in the top 100 nations and just behind the US but above S. korea.

Ranking Best Health Care Systems in the World by Country (internationalinsurance.com)

Edited May 27, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Danderman123]

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

So Thailand's hospitals and health service system is not excellent in your view.  It is very sad that you see it this way when the world sees it in the top 6 nations for its health services and then has 1 hospital Ranked in the top 12 in the world.

 

12 Best Hospitals In The World | 2021 Edition - RankRed

 

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2019/09/10/thailand-healthcare-system-world-sixth-public-health-service-system/

 

Tell us more about why they are not excellent or why you personally believe other than what the world rankings show.

I was referring to the study of European health systems that determined that countries that test a lot also have higher patient survival rates. 

[DrJack54]

7 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

It is very sad that you see it this way when the world sees it in the top 6 nations

I have them notch up from 6. Swift service.

[Danderman123]

8 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

False, look again both same studies

Anyone making a case based on 2 studies has a weak case. 

 

Anyway, you blew FFF's argument out of the water. He claimed that CFR cannot be changed, and therefore higher mortality implies more cases. You argue that CFR can change. 

 

Thanks for the help. 

[dinsdale]

1 hour ago, Tonypandy said:

Locking down a city for 26 cases is ridiculous 

Not locking down and you get what you get here. Guess they think that hard medicine is the way to go. Knock it on the head quick and hard. Here don't knock it on the head just let it run and ruin. Phuket, Pattaya want's to open up while BKK is out of control? The only people coming here will be the Chinese to buy everything up. No tourists. Not happening this year.

Edited May 27, 2021 by dinsdale

[Bkk Brian]

13 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Anyone making a case based on 2 studies has a weak case. 

 

Thanks for the help. 

I would like to see some evidence for your claims aside form your assumptions? Weak case maybe?

 

Anyway its not just two studies there are more than a dozen here's two more that covers 35 countries. Its all basic science and I'm very surprised its something you have no knowledge about:

 

We found that population mortality and case fatality rates were highly correlated with testing coverage

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7804083/

 

Testing capacity, which is associated with the availability of resources and manpower, is the single most important factor that can tremendously affect the CFR, 

 

https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(21)00004-5/fulltext

Edited May 27, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[dinsdale]

2 hours ago, Derek B said:

Hopefully someone in Thailand is considering opening a second vaccine production facility to serve the nation & the ASEAN region as new viruses are bound to follow.

I'm sure there's some pigs snouts in the trough working on that right now.

[mrfill]

4 hours ago, johnnytuc said:

Correct the last figures i saw was that 1% of the population owned 63% of the wealth, near enough the highest disparity in the world!

That's capitalism for you

[dinsdale]

I can't believe in the face of overwhelming evidence some people can't see the truth. Indeed if the truth was being given to to population the evedince would be even more overwhelming. If this lot gets kicked out the paper shredders and computer guys will well and truly be working overtime.

[Danderman123]

14 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I would like to see some evidence for your claims aside form your assumptions? Weak case maybe?

 

Anyway its not just two studies there are more than a dozen here's two more that covers 35 countries. Its all basic science and I'm very surprised its something you have no knowledge about:

 

We found that population mortality and case fatality rates were highly correlated with testing coverage

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7804083/

 

Testing capacity, which is associated with the availability of resources and manpower, is the single most important factor that can tremendously affect the CFR, 

 

https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(21)00004-5/fulltext

I stand corrected.

 

if there is more testing, more asymptomatic cases are picked up, and so CFR declines. Brian is right.

 

It doesn’t mean that fatalities are necessarily reduced, only the CFR is reduced.

 

However, if the amount of testing is constant, CFR may still vary.

[PEE TEE]

59 minutes ago, Ginner said:

With Thailand going on about opening up to tourist on 1st of July. I would think they should be more worried about tourist wanting to visit Thailand the way the infection and death rate is going up. Even a fully vaccinated person can still contract and pass the virus.

 

The way the virus is spreading other countries will not allow travel to Thailand. July 1st will not happen in my opinion  

[Danderman123]

Just now, PEE TEE said:

The way the virus is spreading other countries will not allow travel to Thailand. July 1st will not happen in my opinion  

July 1 is going to happen, the question is if and when Phuket allows vaccinated tourists without quarantine.

 

one hopeful sign: I landed in Krabi airport yesterday and there was a long line before baggage claim, where everyone had to  disclose their medical histories. I showed my CDC vaccination card, and was waved through.

[Bkk Brian]

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I stand corrected.

 

if there is more testing, more asymptomatic cases are picked up, and so CFR declines. Brian is right.

 

It doesn’t mean that fatalities are necessarily reduced, only the CFR is reduced.

 

However, if the amount of testing is constant, CFR may still vary.

Well that only took 4 scientific studies to convince you, perhaps do some research in future before making claims and being so argumentative about what everyone else knows as basic fact.

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

 

If you contact them, as one of the few left in the nation who still defend the government, you might be able to arrange a PR retainer. The results of the first wave were likely due to dumb luck, it appears. 

 

Very lame. Nearly every time I see someone complaining, or observing a shortfall within Thailand, some guy, who has not taken the time to think things through, nor to devote any focus or effort to a reasonable reply, says something like "Perhaps Thailand is not for you", or maybe you should leave, or the top prize, "if you do not like it here, go back to your own country". Hard to even respond to such statements. Why? Because I have some issues with the place? Sorry to inform you, but the nature of a discerning mind, is to have issues. Though absolute contentment must be a beautiful state of mind, it is not something most of us are blessed with, in case you have not noticed. The fact that I complain, does not mean I do not love Thailand, nor most of it's people. I do. I love my life here. I have a very good life here. But, I do have some complaints, and there are some things I would love to see improved. I should leave because of that? Please. Next time you make a post, try to devote at least two moments of thought to it.

Plus the squeaky wheel gets the most oil, which may seem like a laughing matter but as the parents of a little girl who recently died in an Australian hospital whilst waiting for attention because the parents pleas where ignored will attest.

[mrfill]

If comprehensive testing fixes things, why bother with vaccines? - Could that be the plan?

 

Comprehensive vaccination is required.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Meeting tomorrow should be interesting, I bet Anutin's not there....lol:

 

Thailand’s Chulabhorn Royal Academy is to procure alternative makes of COVID-19 vaccines, to supplement those being acquired by the government, without going through the Government Pharmaceutical Organization (GPO).

 

A formal joint press conference, about the academy’s procurement of other vaccines, is to be held on Friday by the academy, the Public Health Ministry and Thailand’s Food and Drug Administration (TFDA).

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/chulabhorn-royal-academy-to-procure-alternative-covid-19-vaccines/

Edited May 27, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[phills2k1]

Landed back in the US on Sunday, received my first jab Monday morning (Pfizer, only a slight dead arm on this round).

 

Been checking in to hopefully see some good news so I can come back ASAP. Sorry that it's still more of the same

 

Also I have to say, it's comforting to see the same names every day either try to claim things are improving through nothing but semantics or essentially wishing / "I have a feeling the wave has crested" while the rest correctly shut this down. The more things change, the more they stay the same

 

Be safe everyone

Edited May 27, 2021 by phills2k1
Add info

[Rhacsyn]

12 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

July 1 is going to happen, the question is if and when Phuket allows vaccinated tourists without quarantine.

 

one hopeful sign: I landed in Krabi airport yesterday and there was a long line before baggage claim, where everyone had to  disclose their medical histories. I showed my CDC vaccination card, and was waved through.

 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/388875605677294/

 

A group of agents and folk from the entertainment world are working on it, so it looks likely "something" will start,  may be a small trickle, who knows.

[Donga]

8 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

So do you have any info on which hotspots have been eliminated and do you realise that some of the variants currently circulating have an R0 value of 5 according to the Chief Health Officer of Victoria?That means that each infection has the potential of infecting 5 others.Do you know the numbers of close contacts that are being traced here in Thailand?Yesterday Melbourne traced 10,000 close contacts from 26 infections in a 24 hour period you can extrapolate that for Thailand to get a rough estimation of the numbers of close contacts Thailand would need to track and trace here, possibly hundreds of thousands each day.Do you think Thailand is tracing that number each day?

Hotspots have been eliminated all around the country, want every town listed?

Why do you hold up Victoria as the gold standard? Their population is 6.7 million and had 820 Covid deaths. Thailand's population is ten times with 920 Covid deaths.

I'd say Thailand's performance is at least 8 times better than Victoria... without the four months draconian lockdown from that inept government. Nor would I take Victorian CHO word as gospel on variant potency, he's as bad as the doomsday squad on Thai Visa, gets spooked at shadows. 

Around the world Covid is in retreat. Thailand is bringing this wave under control. They have the prisons and the migrant worker factories in lockdown. No need to do a Victorian, good grief. Chill fella.

 

Edited May 27, 2021 by Donga