Gloom and Doom, revisited.

[Harsh Jones]

On 8/20/2021 at 8:19 AM, Leaver said:

 

 

 

 

Which makes it more attractive to them, does it not?  Especially now it's all vacant and up for sale at rock bottom covid prices.

 

 

 

The Chinese buy up distressed assets like no tomorrow.  They buy hotels, big and small, bars, guest houses, shops, buses, boats etc etc.  Then, once they own pretty much all tourism infrastructure here, which they acquire at rock bottom covid prices, then the millions of Chinese tourists start to fly in for holidays on a level we have not seen here before.  

 

Now, the question for western expats is, would you still like to live in Pattaya should this happen, and if you don't, what's your property worth if it happens?

 

Also, why would you buy a property now, with the uncertainty this could happen?     

 

Are prices really adjusting to reflect the downturn in cashflow ? I didn't think they were. This isn't 2008. The world printed money the instant Covid hit.

 

Prices for a lot of assets have gone up since covid rather than down

[GStewart70]

21 hours ago, kinyara said:

There is a business model that usually gets exposed quite quickly in a downturn when there are no investors to attract or buyers to flip the business to. It always seems to be based on relentless self promotion and marketing hype. Not in the least bit surprised they are no more. 

I played a pool league match in Retox. Beautiful table.

It was an excellent night, lovely meal at half time.

Very well run bar and used to organise celebrity sportstar nights.

If/when tourist volumes can return i would think someone would try to get the team back together.

[kinyara]

3 hours ago, GStewart70 said:

I played a pool league match in Retox. Beautiful table.

It was an excellent night, lovely meal at half time.

Very well run bar and used to organise celebrity sportstar nights.

If/when tourist volumes can return i would think someone would try to get the team back together.

With so many businesses closing down It will definately be an interesting time to see what new ones start up in their place as the recovery gathers steam whenever that turns out to be.

[kwilco]

On 8/23/2021 at 11:57 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO no visible "western" brothels in Pattaya or any place I went in Thailand. The Thais may have them, and westerners may use them, but they ain't "western".

Seriously  Thailand has had thousands of brothels aimed specifically at westerners. Completely different from the trade aimed at local Thai customers. Surprised you havent noticed. It was what Pattaya was founded on.

Maybe you are being deliberately obtuse?

[Leaver]

On 8/23/2021 at 3:28 AM, kwilco said:

Sandboxes so far have been a dismal failure.

 

True, but that may be the only way back into Thailand for many, in the short to medium term.  

 

On 8/23/2021 at 3:28 AM, kwilco said:

I think most people are failing to take into account what is happening outside Thailand....if they become a red or amber destination they are even less likely to recover.  It also depends on which countries will allow tourists to go there and return and what vax passports are required internationally....e.g. airlines, transit countries..

 

Correct.

 

This time, Thailand will have to play by international rules. They will not be able to change the stats to suit their agenda. 

 

If Thailand is not vaccinated to over 60%, at least, they will not be on the safe to travel to list of many countries, which means tourists coming to Thailand may be quarantined upon their return to their home country.  

 

On 8/23/2021 at 3:28 AM, kwilco said:

So far Thailand has done anything but money number one...

 

Tell that to the homeless, hungry, broke, and unemployed.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Leaver]

On 8/23/2021 at 1:29 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

I can't see the masses accepting that. IMO more likely our "leaders" will have to learn to live with it. Protect the actually vulnerable if they wish to be isolated, and let natural immunity through infection happen.

Seems that Britain has gone down that route already, though I don't know what they are doing for the actually vulnerable.

 

Do you know what Covid-25 looks like?  Say Covid-25 kills everyone within 48 hours, something like Ebola.  

 

Yes, let's open up under those circumstances and live with Covid.  

 

Whilst many think the race is on to open up for the global economy, the race is really on to halt the ability of the virus from mutating into something a lot worse than Covid-19.  

[Leaver]

On 8/23/2021 at 4:01 PM, BritManToo said:

My prediction, Thailand will vaccinate to 30% in the next 2 years then quietly give up.

 

I thought similar a while ago, but Thailand will not be able to "smoke and mirrors" this one to the rest of the world. 

 

Other countries will put Thailand on their Red or Amber lists and have requirements and / or restrictions for those holidaying to Thailand.    

 

Thailand (mainland) will need 60% to 70% vaccinated population to be consider safe to travel to by most countries in the future. and the WHO know Thailand's vaccination rate capabilities.  

[Leaver]

On 8/25/2021 at 10:32 AM, Harsh Jones said:

Are prices really adjusting to reflect the downturn in cashflow ? I didn't think they were. This isn't 2008. The world printed money the instant Covid hit.

 

Prices for a lot of assets have gone up since covid rather than down

 

I just posted of "Pattaya's number 1 farang restaurant's" for sale price on another thread.  It's dropped from something like 8 million baht to 4 million baht.

 

https://www.bahtsold.com/view/pattaya-s-number-1-farang-restaurant-is-for-sale--387708

 

Here's Pattaya's most popular sports bar.  From memory, originally listed at 12 million, now listed at 8 million baht.

 

https://www.bahtsold.com/view/1202180-one-of-pattaya-s-best-pubs-for-sale-326114

 

"Are prices really adjusting?"  A price is only as good as what the market is willing to pay.  if there is no market, what's the value of an asset, and should that asset have expenses, such as rent, there becomes a point when the assets turns to a liability.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Leaver]

On 8/24/2021 at 8:05 PM, kinyara said:

There is a business model that usually gets exposed quite quickly in a downturn when there are no investors to attract or buyers to flip the business to. It always seems to be based on relentless self promotion and marketing hype. Not in the least bit surprised they are no more. 

 

Retox Soi Honey was Central Pattaya's most popular sports bar. That can be debated, but in its day, it was rammed.  it was busy with expats and tourists, pre covid, although my observations of the high season of 2019/20 was it was not as busy at previously, but still a lot of trade.  Indeed, many businesses catering for westerners were also quiet at that time. 

 

I would be interested in what business model you think was exposed, other than, possibly, a Thai landlord not prepared to share the covid pain.  

[Leaver]

On 8/25/2021 at 9:06 PM, kinyara said:

With so many businesses closing down It will definately be an interesting time to see what new ones start up in their place as the recovery gathers steam whenever that turns out to be.

 

Yes, it will be, but in my opinion, the recovery gathering steam will not simply be when they open the borders.  It will take a lot more than that, and will be a lot longer after that.   

[Leaver]

On 8/23/2021 at 12:24 PM, kinyara said:

Re Leaver, " How many of the well established businesses are left now ".  ?

 

I said at the start of your "Is the closure of your favourite bar or restaurant imminent thread that I was confident my regular long standing favourites would survive, To date that has still been the case, professionally run businesses with a well established customer base of resident expats built up over the years. Typically this customer base would be what covered their operating costs during the low season months every year previous as other less professional businesses came and went year after year in the normal Pattaya business cycle of failures.

 

I will be honest enough to admit if one of them goes in the next 6 months.

 

 

As another member mentioned, Central Pattaya's most popular sports bar, Retox, is no more.  It was one of my favourite places, as stared in the other thread, but of course, everyone has different tastes..  

 

I find it hard to believe you would suggest a bar like Retox was not professionally run, and didn't have a well established customer base.  I frequented the place often, and so did many of my friends, and we are all expats. It was also a meeting place for me and many visiting friends, before heading out for a night.

 

I suppose if you only have have one favourite place, and it survives, then you have a 100% success rate, but others have many different favourite places, and unfortunately, a high percentage of them have not survived.          

[thaibeachlovers]

10 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

Do you know what Covid-25 looks like?  Say Covid-25 kills everyone within 48 hours, something like Ebola.  

 

Yes, let's open up under those circumstances and live with Covid.  

 

Whilst many think the race is on to open up for the global economy, the race is really on to halt the ability of the virus from mutating into something a lot worse than Covid-19.  

In that event I will have passed on to a better place, and the world will be a place I wouldn't want to inhabit anyway. IMO It's already becoming that way, and I for one will not rage against the dying of the light.

 

 

 

[kinyara]

10 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

I would be interested in what business model you think was exposed, other than, possibly, a Thai landlord not prepared to share the covid pain.  

Economies of scale, larger businesses with higher overheads associated with running bigger premises/operation. The dramatic downturn in the larger volume of customers they require just to cover the higher cost base requires deeper pockets to maintain. There seems to be an automatic assumption that the level of popularity is directly reflected in the level of profitability, You've used this premise yourself in the past to question the profit model of other popular businesses.

[GStewart70]

16 hours ago, Leaver said:

 

I just posted of "Pattaya's number 1 farang restaurant's" for sale price on another thread.  It's dropped from something like 8 million baht to 4 million baht.

 

https://www.bahtsold.com/view/pattaya-s-number-1-farang-restaurant-is-for-sale--387708

 

Here's Pattaya's most popular sports bar.  From memory, originally listed at 12 million, now listed at 8 million baht.

 

https://www.bahtsold.com/view/1202180-one-of-pattaya-s-best-pubs-for-sale-326114

 

"Are prices really adjusting?"  A price is only as good as what the market is willing to pay.  if there is no market, what's the value of an asset, and should that asset have expenses, such as rent, there becomes a point when the assets turns to a liability.  

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for posting these.

 

I'm no sales and marketing expert but the Hungry Hippo ad is screaming 'just make me an offer and i'll bite your arm off.'

Sad times indeed.

 

[scubascuba3]

51 minutes ago, GStewart70 said:

Thanks for posting these.

 

I'm no sales and marketing expert but the Hungry Hippo ad is screaming 'just make me an offer and i'll bite your arm off.'

Sad times indeed.

 

It is a very good time to buy, probably the bottom, but i doubt anyone has got the know how to make HH a success once the current owner leaves

[Golden Triangle]

On 8/22/2021 at 5:42 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Wouldn't it be great if a massive rainstorm swept it all away just as it was almost complete?

What ? Like today you mean ????????

[Golden Triangle]

On 8/17/2021 at 11:31 AM, kwilco said:

Sorry if you feel stupid.

For someone who appears to have a wealth of knowledge on the subject you seem to be awfully reticent on sharing that knowledge with others who may appreciate the information, you seem to be quite content to ridicule others, you do know that it's a 2 way street ? One day you may come asking for advice only to be ridiculed for your naivety on the subject. 

[Leaver]

On 8/27/2021 at 11:33 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

In that event I will have passed on to a better place, and the world will be a place I wouldn't want to inhabit anyway. IMO It's already becoming that way, and I for one will not rage against the dying of the light.

 

 

 

 

In the last 18 months there have already been several mutations / variants.  I have a feeling there will be a few more before it's over.  

[Leaver]

On 8/27/2021 at 12:40 PM, kinyara said:

Economies of scale, larger businesses with higher overheads associated with running bigger premises/operation. The dramatic downturn in the larger volume of customers they require just to cover the higher cost base requires deeper pockets to maintain. There seems to be an automatic assumption that the level of popularity is directly reflected in the level of profitability, You've used this premise yourself in the past to question the profit model of other popular businesses.

 

I agree with the point you are making, but I would not have put Retox in that category, but I do not know how much rent they pay.  Maybe their Thai landlord was not prepaid to share the covid pain, so closing was about limiting financial damage.  I don't think they closed because they fell out of favour with their customers.  

 

The 2 for 1 business models are the ones that need a high turn over in order to survive.  Eg. Billabong Bar.  Also, Hungry Hippo, Kiss etc, with the cheap meals at high turnover business model.  

 

Retox did drinks, food, and accommodation, and had expat and tourist customers, but I do understand the point you are making, and agree with it.  

 

Edited August 28, 2021 by Leaver

[Leaver]

23 hours ago, GStewart70 said:

Thanks for posting these.

 

I'm no sales and marketing expert but the Hungry Hippo ad is screaming 'just make me an offer and i'll bite your arm off.'

Sad times indeed.

 

 

History shows he makes his money on the development of the property, not the cheap eats, which fills the place, to make the appearance of a profitable business.  

 

I have posted previously that he would either have to raise the price of the meals and / or lower the asking price, or both, to be able to survive, or to sell.  He has done both, one more than one occasion.  

[Leaver]

23 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

t is a very good time to buy, probably the bottom,

 

I think there may be a point in time when covid rent discounts end, but tourism has not yet returned to a level that can sustain full rents.  Also, the clock has been ticking on key money and new lease time frames.  At that point, there will be more closures, and the bottom of the market will be found. 

 

23 hours ago, scubascuba3 said:

i doubt anyone has got the know how to make HH a success once the current owner leaves

 

That's because profit is made on the development of the property, not on the cheap eats.  

[Espanol]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

The 2 for 1 business models are the ones that need a high turn over in order to survive.

I particularly like to go to a bar, have ONE beer, see the atmosphere and move to another bar.

For me and many other people I know, a 2x1 bar is directly a bar that I will never go to.

I only find them interesting for heavy drinkers who are just looking to sit somewhere cheap and drink one beer after another.

 

[scubascuba3]

31 minutes ago, Leaver said:

That's because profit is made on the development of the property, not on the cheap eats.  

No it's because someone will buy it and muck up the menu, prices up and key staff leave, causing it to crash and burn eventually aka Chunky Monkey effect

[GStewart70]

There are people with money to burn, or launder, all over the world.

The warehouse club, on soi bukahow, is going to have a state of the art lighting rig allegedly worth millions of baht.

Look at the new beach club at treetown.

Personally, i think this pandemic, and it's restrictions on global travel, are going to mean Pattaya is a long way from any sort of recovery.

[Leaver]

52 minutes ago, Espanol said:

I particularly like to go to a bar, have ONE beer, see the atmosphere and move to another bar.

For me and many other people I know, a 2x1 bar is directly a bar that I will never go to.

I only find them interesting for heavy drinkers who are just looking to sit somewhere cheap and drink one beer after another.

 

 

If it wasn't for the good band at The Billabong Bar, I would have no reason to stay there for any length of time.  Similarly, The Triangle Bar.  

 

I agree, without some other type of entertainment, 2 for 1 bars offer very little other than cheap alcohol and some people watching.  

[Leaver]

50 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

No it's because someone will buy it and muck up the menu, prices up and key staff leave, causing it to crash and burn eventually aka Chunky Monkey effect

 

"Prices up" maybe because the REAL operating costs are discovered.  ????  

[Leaver]

35 minutes ago, GStewart70 said:

Personally, i think this pandemic, and it's restrictions on global travel, are going to mean Pattaya is a long way from any sort of recovery.

 

It's certainly going to be years, not as soon as borders open.  

 

36 minutes ago, GStewart70 said:

The warehouse club, on soi bukahow, is going to have a state of the art lighting rig allegedly worth millions of baht.

Look at the new beach club at treetown.

 

I think these businesses tend to show that Walking Street, as we knew it, is finished, except for a few places with a loyal following.  

[scubascuba3]

5 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

If it wasn't for the good band at The Billabong Bar, I would have no reason to stay there for any length of time.  Similarly, The Triangle Bar.  

 

I agree, without some other type of entertainment, 2 for 1 bars offer very little other than cheap alcohol and some people watching.  

2 for 1 bars otherwise known as buy one at double the price, get second free, people are so gullible

[Espanol]

31 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

2 for 1 bars otherwise known as buy one at double the price, get second free, people are so gullible

[3NUMBAS]

uk adults are 94% jabbed but the delta strain is roaring away .double  jabbed wont save you

or even single jabbed..38000 cases and 174 dead in recent days