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Almost 90% of COVID-19 Cases in Thailand are the Alpha Virus Variant


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BANGKOK (NNT) - Thailand’s Department of Medical Sciences (DMS) reports that almost 90% of the COVID-19 cases found in Thailand are of the Alpha variant, first found in the United Kingdom.

 

DMS Director-General Supakit Sirilak said studies of 4,185 cases in Thailand, conducted in collaboration with university laboratories from April to June, found that the Alpha variant had infected by far the most people, 3,703 or 88.48%. Just 348 cases, or 8.32%, were found to be of the Delta variant, first detected in India.

 

He added that 98 cases, or 2.34%, were B.1 (dade G), B.1 (dade GH), B.1.1.1 (dade GR), first found in China. Also, 26 cases, or 0.62%, were of the Beta variant, first found in Africa, and the rest, 10 cases or 0.24%, were of the B.1.524 variant.

 

Dr. Supakit cited studies by Public Health England (PHE) and the World Health Organization (WHO), confirming the Alpha variant is more contagious and more deadly when compared with the original strain. Vaccinations should, however, still be effective against it.

 

He explained that the Delta variant is more contagious than Alpha, but infections are less severe and vaccinations are effective in preventing it. Meanwhile, the Beta variant spreads more slowly, but it has caused more deaths than the original variant.

 

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9 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

It took 60-70 days for alpha variant to become dominant, it will take less than half that time for the Indian delta variant. Buckle up!

And it's more transmissible, more deadly, and isn't stopped by many of the current jabs. Especially the Chinese ones.

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30 minutes ago, webfact said:

He added that 98 cases, or 2.34%, were B.1 (dade G), B.1 (dade GH), B.1.1.1 (dade GR), first found in China.

 

I think they mean clade (c l a d e)G and clade GH, etc. Dade is a county in Florida.

 

Agree, Indian B.167.2 could move faster than the current B.1.1.7 has since April.

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7 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

And it's more transmissible, more deadly, and isn't stopped by many of the current jabs. Especially the Chinese ones.

I will flesh out your comments if you do not mind....

First, it has about a 40% higher transmission rate compared with alpha

Second, it is also believed to cause more severe disease than alpha, translating to a further rise in the percentage of positive cases that require hospitalization, despite the fact that the infections are in younger people.

Also, data from Public Health England shows that the first dose of the Pfizer Inc.-BioNTech SE and AstraZeneca Plc vaccines provide only about a 30% protection against delta, though this rises to at least 88% after the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine and 60% after the second dose of the Astra vaccine (and this is likely to rise with more time for second doses to take effect in Britain). 

These levels of protection are lower than what has been seen against the older variants such as alpha, but they still show that two doses of vaccines work pretty well against the delta variant.

https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/higher-transmission-rate-severe-infections-why-delta-is-a-variant-of-concern-11623282851700.html

 

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With these UK and Indian Variants, Thailand really has to stop the " One shot and we are Vaccinated " strategy.

One shot of any Vaccine is not full Immunization, and both shots have to be administered before that can happen, as well as a total 70 %  of the entire population to attain Herd Immunity.

Chile is currently having a real problem with this " One shot and we are Vaccinated " strategy, and it looks as if the Capitol ( Santiago ) has to go into another Lockdown, because the people have only been vaccinated with one shot ( Vaccine unknown ), and they dropped their Guard.

Thailand is playing with fire on this one, and could cause more problems than they could ever imagine.

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9 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

With these UK and Indian Variants, Thailand really has to stop the " One shot and we are Vaccinated " strategy.

One shot of any Vaccine is not full Immunization, and both shots have to be administered before that can happen, as well as a total 70 %  of the entire population to attain Herd Immunity.

Chile is currently having a real problem with this " One shot and we are Vaccinated " strategy, and it looks as if the Capitol ( Santiago ) has to go into another Lockdown, because the people have only been vaccinated with one shot ( Vaccine unknown ), and they dropped their Guard.

Thailand is playing with fire on this one, and could cause more problems than they could ever imagine.

We are currently after the two shot strategy.  Astra only protects 30 percent with one jab.  The problem is you need at least 8 weeks before doses for the heightened effect of it.  And with that, your protection is around 60 percent.  

Trust me, my friend was in ICU for 3.5 weeks, had his trachea tube taken out and is learning how to walk again.  You don't want this.  My other horror story is a friend in Nepal who died because who goes to the hospital in Nepal when you're sick?  Only rich people.  

Just be careful wear your mask, yada yada yada.  Keep living just continue to be very careful.  

Uncle Tom signing off.

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On 6/11/2021 at 1:49 PM, webfact said:

Thailand’s Department of Medical Sciences (DMS) reports that almost 90% of the COVID-19 cases found in Thailand are of the Alpha variant, first found in the United Kingdom

Which means diddly squat... first found in UK, so what.... where did it come from to reach the UK.... maybe the same for Thailand.

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It is very frustrating. Before the B117 variant showed up here life was reasonably normal and people were not dying.

 

Now we are in a worse situation than all of last year and start of

 this year. It has been the final nail in the coffin for many businesses that had saved, scrimped and battled through the last year and also the final nail in the coffin for hundreds of Thai lives. 

 

Now schools are closed etc. It is a relief to find know that the Indian variety isn't as deadly, but absolutely tragic that 90% of cases here are the more deadly British variant.

 

If the UK had of stopped outward travel back last year when they discovered it most likely we wouldn't be where we are today.

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19 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

With these UK and Indian Variants, Thailand really has to stop the " One shot and we are Vaccinated " strategy.

One shot of any Vaccine is not full Immunization, and both shots have to be administered before that can happen, as well as a total 70 %  of the entire population to attain Herd Immunity.

Chile is currently having a real problem with this " One shot and we are Vaccinated " strategy, and it looks as if the Capitol ( Santiago ) has to go into another Lockdown, because the people have only been vaccinated with one shot ( Vaccine unknown ), and they dropped their Guard.

Thailand is playing with fire on this one, and could cause more problems than they could ever imagine.

I've heard that infection rates are rising again in the UK... not sure why this might be, as their vaccine strategy was good.

Is it a new strain or the old ones that are giving the problems.

Obviously vaccination does not make one totally immune but lessons the impact.

Thailand I think has the mis-conception that once vaccinated they are totally immune.

 

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I know it's only anecdotal evidence but I was talking to my daughter three days ago and she also mentioned she's seeing an increase in cases involving younger people.

 

She was working in the ICU all last week and she said she and her colleagues were all struck by the fact that they have seen for the first time since the pandemic began, young people in their thirties, with no underlying conditions, being admitted to ICU.

 

(She works in an NHS hospital the UK).

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This is all such tripe. Yet more meaningless statistics. "A study from April - June showed 90% was the more dangerous UK variant". I bet all they did was say we looked at X cases in that period and 90% of the total number were UK variant. But if the UK variant was all found prior to say three weeks ago and the Indian one only in the last three weeks, then the story is completely different. Clearly shows Indian variant dominant.

 

PLUS the Indian one is considered more infectious than the UK one - not the other way around. 40% say PHE. Panic! But no context: if in a group of 1000 people 10 will get UK strain, then '40% more' getting Indian is 14 / 1000. Oooooh frightening. Not. Of course if it's 200 will get UK strain and 280 get Indian, then more concerning. Context is key.

 

However, while UK cases have gone up a lot over last few weeks to 8000 or so a day from 3000 or whatever a month ago, the number of people dying or getting really sick is still very low indeed. Sure, there's a lag in how hospitalisations / deaths trail infections.

 

Time to face up to reality of living with this for the foreseeable future and I for one would prefer that to involve acceptance of some risk in exchange for return of personal freedoms.

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7 minutes ago, BKKBike09 said:

But no context: if in a group of 1000 people 10 will get UK strain, then '40% more' getting Indian is 14 / 1000.

That's not what "40% more transmissible means." It means that each person who gets it, is 40% more likely to pass it on to others.

 

The more important statistic (I think) is the R number indicating how many other people they'll pass it to. As mentioned above, it is estimated to be in the range of 6-8 which means each person who gets it will on average, infect 6-8 others.

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19 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

And it's more transmissible, more deadly, and isn't stopped by many of the current jabs. Especially the Chinese ones.

 

That's not accurate.

 

The UK says the indian variant is 64 % more contagious than the english variant.

 

Yes.

 

Source : https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-covid-variant-64-more-infectious-than-kent-strain-officials-conclude-vrht7mgvx

 

But the study they use to say that is... full of holes.

 

The study is here :

https://khub.net/documents/135939561/405676950/Increased+Household+Transmission+of+COVID-19+Cases+-+national+case+study.pdf/7f7764fb-ecb0-da31-77b3-b1a8ef7be9aa

 

It's title : Increased household transmission of COVID-19 cases associated with SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern B.1.617.2:  a national case-control study

 

But... they admit :

 

"There are several limitations to this study....

Additionally, we did not have information on household size, which is likely to have an effect on the estimates of transmissibility. "

 

No really ? !

 

To be blind regarding the size of household... when you make a study about... household transmission of a virus... it's rather ironic ! 😉

 

Because... a household of 20 people (for instance Asian families in UK) living together... is more likely to create more contaminations  than a household... with 1 people and a dog and a cat.

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2 hours ago, cclub75 said:

 

That's not accurate.

 

The UK says the indian variant is 64 % more contagious than the english variant.

 

Yes.

 

Source : https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-covid-variant-64-more-infectious-than-kent-strain-officials-conclude-vrht7mgvx

 

But the study they use to say that is... full of holes.

 

The study is here :

https://khub.net/documents/135939561/405676950/Increased+Household+Transmission+of+COVID-19+Cases+-+national+case+study.pdf/7f7764fb-ecb0-da31-77b3-b1a8ef7be9aa

 

It's title : Increased household transmission of COVID-19 cases associated with SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern B.1.617.2:  a national case-control study

 

But... they admit :

 

"There are several limitations to this study....

Additionally, we did not have information on household size, which is likely to have an effect on the estimates of transmissibility. "

 

No really ? !

 

To be blind regarding the size of household... when you make a study about... household transmission of a virus... it's rather ironic ! 😉

 

Because... a household of 20 people (for instance Asian families in UK) living together... is more likely to create more contaminations  than a household... with 1 people and a dog and a cat.

If it's more transmissible, then it's also more deadly.  But lots of reports out there saying it's potentially more deadly also.

 

https://www.india.com/health/all-about-delta-variant-the-most-dangerous-form-of-covid-that-caused-second-wave-in-india-4724464/

 

The Delta variant of COVID-19 or the B1.617.2 highly transmissible variant of concern (VOC) has now become the dominant VOC in the UK and may also come with an increased risk of hospitalization.

 

Although, the number of COVID-19 cases is receding in India but complications in recovered patients continues. From hearing impairment, severe gastric upsets and blood clots leading to gangrene – symptoms not typically seen in Covid-19 patients – have been linked by doctors in India to the so-called delta variant that drove the country’s second wave, as per a report in Bloomberg.

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3 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

If it's more transmissible, then it's also more deadly.  But lots of reports out there saying it's potentially more deadly also.

 

https://www.india.com/health/all-about-delta-variant-the-most-dangerous-form-of-covid-that-caused-second-wave-in-india-4724464/

 

The Delta variant of COVID-19 or the B1.617.2 highly transmissible variant of concern (VOC) has now become the dominant VOC in the UK and may also come with an increased risk of hospitalization.

 

Although, the number of COVID-19 cases is receding in India but complications in recovered patients continues. From hearing impairment, severe gastric upsets and blood clots leading to gangrene – symptoms not typically seen in Covid-19 patients – have been linked by doctors in India to the so-called delta variant that drove the country’s second wave, as per a report in Bloomberg.

More transmissible, but not necessarily more deadly. In absolute terms, more nay die, but not in relative terms. What we are seeign is normal evolution of viruses - they becoem more transmissible, but in relative, terms, less deadly. The Indian variant in the UK is presenting with more mild flu-like symptoms (no loss of taste/smell). 

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Just now, DavisH said:

More transmissible, but not necessarily more deadly. In absolute terms, more nay die, but not in relative terms. What we are seeign is normal evolution of viruses - they becoem more transmissible, but in relative, terms, less deadly. The Indian variant in the UK is presenting with more mild flu-like symptoms (no loss of taste/smell). 

Understood, but I'm reading lots of reports saying they think it's also more deadly.  Not 100% known for sure, but the above articles lay that out.  And many more are out there talking about this.

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https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/delta-variant-covid-19-just-143928155.html

 

With the United States still well short of reaching herd immunity against COVID-19, concern is growing over a new variant of the virus that researchers now believe is between 30 percent and 100 percent more transmissible than the previously most dominant variant. "The best estimate at the moment is this [new] variant may be 60 percent more transmissible than the Alpha ['U.K.'] variant," epidemiologist Neil Ferguson told The Guardian.

 

Though research is ongoing, there is not yet any sign that the Delta variant is more deadly than other variants. Still, that doesn't mean it's less dangerous; as Zeynep Tufekci wrote for The New York Times in an article titled "COVID's deadliest phase may be here soon" on May 28, "A variant with higher transmissibility is a huge danger to people without immunity either from vaccination or prior infection, even if the variant is no more deadly than previous versions of the virus … A more transmissible variant can burn through such an immunologically naïve population very fast."

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22 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

And it's more transmissible, more deadly, and isn't stopped by many of the current jabs. Especially the Chinese ones.

 Yes.  It is very worrying. They sound well behind the curve as usual refusing to recognise the obvious threat from the Indian virus that is now present in many Thai provinces.

 

The worst aspect is that the Chinese vaccines that have been used to vaccinate medical workers are unlikely to offer much protection from this variant.  China is already reporting infections in fully vaccinated patients in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.  Although Pfizer and Moderna do much better, two shots of AZ have been found to be only protect only 33% against the Indian variant.  There is no data on the Chinese vaccines as they haven't used in India or the UK but it's a fair bet that they will be less than 30% effective which means that doctors and nurses will go down like nine pins, as they did in Italy and Spain last year, if the Indian variant takes off here.  Several countries have also complained that Chinese vaccines were not very effective in stopping the spread of other variants, namely Chile, Seychelles and Bahrein.  The latter had to order Pfizer as a third shot to stop the spread. 

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31 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Though research is ongoing, there is not yet any sign that the Delta variant is more deadly than other variants. Still, that doesn't mean it's less dangerous; as Zeynep Tufekci wrote for The New York Times in an article titled "COVID's deadliest phase may be here soon" on May 28, "A variant with higher transmissibility is a huge danger to people without immunity either from vaccination or prior infection, even if the variant is no more deadly than previous versions of the virus … A more transmissible variant can burn through such an immunologically naïve population very fast."

 

Saw an article somewhere that suggested the Indian variant appears less deadly because it has been infecting more younger people who have better resistance to severe disease.  However, there seem to be nastier complications, such as gangrene and black fungus in the lungs that can occur after recovery from COVID.

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3 hours ago, RobMuir said:

It is very frustrating. Before the B117 variant showed up here life was reasonably normal and people were not dying.

 

Now we are in a worse situation than all of last year and start of

 this year. It has been the final nail in the coffin for many businesses that had saved, scrimped and battled through the last year and also the final nail in the coffin for hundreds of Thai lives. 

 

Now schools are closed etc. It is a relief to find know that the Indian variety isn't as deadly, but absolutely tragic that 90% of cases here are the more deadly British variant.

 

If the UK had of stopped outward travel back last year when they discovered it most likely we wouldn't be where we are today.

Are you sure people were not dying? More than half a million die every year in Thailand (20-odd a day is a drop in the ocean if you believe the stats) some of which will not be explained. Bearing in mind testing, esp earlier on, was woefully inadequate and is still well below par. False sense of security that things would have been normal. 
 

 Fyi, outward travel was stopped from the UK. It is INEVITABLE that a virus will spread globally. Live with it.  We know you have to get in your daily dig 😴😴😴, but if you’re looking to point the finger, go and whine at China and then the 1400 people that brought it into the UK if you like. 

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28 minutes ago, Arkady said:

 Yes.  It is very worrying. They sound well behind the curve as usual refusing to recognise the obvious threat from the Indian virus that is now present in many Thai provinces.

 

The worst aspect is that the Chinese vaccines that have been used to vaccinate medical workers are unlikely to offer much protection from this variant.  China is already reporting infections in fully vaccinated patients in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.  Although Pfizer and Moderna do much better, two shots of AZ have been found to be only protect only 33% against the Indian variant.  There is no data on the Chinese vaccines as they haven't used in India or the UK but it's a fair bet that they will be less than 30% effective which means that doctors and nurses will go down like nine pins, as they did in Italy and Spain last year, if the Indian variant takes off here.  Several countries have also complained that Chinese vaccines were not very effective in stopping the spread of other variants, namely Chile, Seychelles and Bahrein.  The latter had to order Pfizer as a third shot to stop the spread. 

Incorrect. 33% is one shot. Two shots of AZ is 60% effective. I don’t need to bother posting links?

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On 6/11/2021 at 7:49 AM, webfact said:

BANGKOK (NNT) - Thailand’s Department of Medical Sciences (DMS) reports that almost 90% of the COVID-19 cases found in Thailand are of the Alpha variant, first found in the United Kingdom

Well that is a hollow statement. If you don’t test anyone you have no proof.

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"...the Delta variant is more contagious than Alpha, but infections are less severe...."

 

 This is really all you need to know. And that goes for the fearmongers in other countries too. 

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35 minutes ago, Arkady said:

Saw an article somewhere that suggested the Indian variant appears less deadly

 

9 minutes ago, Trujillo said:

"...the Delta variant is more contagious than Alpha, but infections are less severe...."

 

Last year at the beginning of this I was watching a  virologist explain about  how previously (before this very clever one)  mutations that made viruses more transmissible  invariably made them less deadly   he also  showed graphs of

"the waves" from previous virus outbreaks  compared to this one  which matched very well... I can't seem to find the video now  

maybe removed for not following the party line !

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11 minutes ago, Trujillo said:

"...the Delta variant is more contagious than Alpha, but infections are less severe...."

 

 This is really all you need to know. And that goes for the fearmongers in other countries too. 

This is one comment from Supakit Sirilak

 

There is no evidence for that, no study has ever concluded that the Indian variant is less severe and PHE certainly never said that. In fact they said vaccines are not as effective on first dose, only 33% for AZ and Pfizer and emphasis the importance of getting the second dose to bring them 88% Pfizer and 60% AZ.

 

Playing down the risk of the Indian variant is dangerous and it needs to be taken seriously. 

 

We can see already the Thai officials complacency when the UK variant arrived and look at the state of the country now.

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32 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Playing down the risk of the Indian variant 

 

I believe the PC term is now the Delta variant.

 

 

32 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

We can see already the Thai officials complacency when the UK variant arrived and look at the state of the country now.

 

That would be the Alpha variant. Some are claiming it came over on a boat from an unnamed European country and is not even really British.

 

Totally agree with you yet again Brian. The Thais were lulled into a false sense of security with their previous success. Especially leaving New Year 2021 open and allowing travel and getting away with it which breathed some life into businesses that needed it.

 

That Alpha strain is a terrible thing and has caused the Thais and many other countries a lot of grief.

 

RIP

 

 

 

 

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