Delta variant in Thailand may replace Alpha in few months, says Medical Science Dept.

[webfact]

 

Medical Sciences Department Director-General Dr. Supakit Sirilak predicted that, in the next 2-3 months, the Delta (Indian) variant of COVID-19 may replace the Alpha (UK) strain as the dominant COVID-19 strain in Thailand, because it is 40% more transmissible than the Alpha variant.

 

He said the Medical Sciences Department has been monitoring 5,055 cases of infected people since April and found that 89.6% of them were infected by the Alpha strain and only 9.8% by the Delta variant, including 404 cases in Bangkok, as well as three infected by the Beta (South African) strain in three districts of the southernmost province of Narathiwat.

 

10 patients under treatment in as many as 4 hospitals in Bangkok were found to be infected with the Delta variant, he added. The Medical Sciences Department plans to conduct research on the efficacy of vaccines on different variants of the virus, using about 200 volunteers, by taking their blood samples for tests with virus variants to determine their immune response.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/delta-variant-in-thailand-to-replace-alpha-in-few-months-says-medical-science-dept/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-06-17

 

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[RichardColeman]

38 minutes ago, webfact said:

Medical Sciences Department Director-General Dr. Supakit Sirilak predicted that, in the next 2-3 months, the Delta (Indian) variant of COVID-19 may replace the Alpha (UK) strain as the dominant COVID-19 strain in Thailand

As this variant makes up 96% of Uk infections now, I think it's a safe bet. Sometimes it appears you only need to watch the tv news to make 'bold' predictions !

[Destiny1990]

Have the found any chinese variant?

[Excel]

2 - 3 months ? That's optimistic if he suggests it will take that long based on other countries experiences perhaps. But irrespective, if that happens then the aimed for 120 day opening target by the crazy Czar is a non starter. What a shame him and his corrupt government put personal gain before the health of the Thai people nationwide such that so few Thais have had a vaccination allowing the potential spread of this nasty variant.

Edited June 16, 2021 by Excel

[Bkk Brian]

Tip of the iceberg with that tiny amount of testing, 5055 sequenced since April. I expect its way over 9.8% and it will not take long before its the dominant variant.

[dinsdale]

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand will reopen to visitors within 120 days after more than a year of coronavirus travel curbs, a calculated risk needed to revive its troubled economy, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said on Wednesday.

I guess the Delta variant is a calculated risk. I'm also guessing it's the B.1.617.2 strain. People dying? Well as a general he probably sees this as acceptable losses. We tell children not to play with fire! Songkran was also a calculated risk as was not locking down. If this calculated risk was not taken and there was a circuit breaker lockdown after the Thong Lor spread, like there was after the boxing stadium debacle, then I'm guessing the economy would be in better shape now. Enter the Delta variant and it's time to open up. The delta variant came to the UK about the same time as relaxing restrictions and look how that's gone. 

 

Edited June 16, 2021 by dinsdale

[realfunster]

Having seen a (relatively) noticeable uptick in cases in the UK from <2,000 per day a month ago back up to 8,000 per day due to the Delta variant, it would seem sensible to be concerned how this variant might develop in Thailand, keeping in mind the UK is widely vaccinated already.

 

The Delta variant might also mean that some countries who were considering sharing vaccines might re-focus on domestic programs. A bit like Thailand has been accused of doing with AZ, rather than meeting licensing agreements to export a certain %.

 

I hope we can make it through, but the approach taken by the government in putting too many eggs in one basket (a concept generally taught in kindergarden…) may come back to bite us further.

 

Economically, Prayut has confirmed the pain is being felt and just announced that Thailand will re-open in 120 days come what may.

For me, just further evidence of a poorly constructed and managed COVID strategy. They never developed any sensible ‘exit plan’.

 

Anyway, I can’t see many, if any, countries allowing free travel here if a significant Delta variant outbreak happens.

 

We shall see…

[metisdead]

A post using a trolling image has been removed. 

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Medical Sciences Department Director-General Dr. Supakit Sirilak predicted that, in the next 2-3 months, the Delta (Indian) variant of COVID-19 may replace the Alpha (UK) strain as the dominant COVID-19 strain in Thailand, because it is 40% more transmissible than the Alpha variant.

Something else to compound Prayuts care plan of the nation.

I wonder if the 4th wave will be in time to share festivities with the 120 day opening.

[thequietman]

4 hours ago, dinsdale said:

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand will reopen to visitors within 120 days after more than a year of coronavirus travel curbs, a calculated risk needed to revive its troubled economy, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said on Wednesday.

I guess the Delta variant is a calculated risk. I'm also guessing it's the B.1.617.2 strain. People dying? Well as a general he probably sees this as acceptable losses. We tell children not to play with fire! Songkran was also a calculated risk as was not locking down. If this calculated risk was not taken and there was a circuit breaker lockdown after the Thong Lor spread, like there was after the boxing stadium debacle, then I'm guessing the economy would be in better shape now. Enter the Delta variant and it's time to open up. The delta variant came to the UK about the same time as relaxing restrictions and look how that's gone. 

 

To  partially quote the great man himself .......... "What will happen, will happen.'  or words to that effect. ????

[Surelynot]

As a large proportion of the UK population have already had one jab, many both, and this Delta variant is still taking off.............Thailand has little I hope, I feel, of avoiding its impact. 

[Excel]

1 minute ago, Surelynot said:

As a large proportion of the UK population have already had one jab, many both, and this Delta variant is still taking off.............Thailand has little I hope, I feel, of avoiding its impact. 

Think India !! the signs are all there for Thailand due to lack of government care for the population nationwide.

[ourdon]

The most recent Scottish studies show that people contracting the Delta variant have approximately twice the chance of requiring hospitalization than those that contracted the Alpha variant.. It will become the dominant variant wherever it is and it's now in 62 countries.  My current country of abode along with Thailand and many other countries are easing restriction and opening up their societies.  This when the Delta is rising.  Hell may be coming for breakfast.  

 

Increased hospitalization rates means increased ICU rates means increased death rates.  Please .... someone explain to me where I'm wrong.

 

I've a horrid feeling that 3.83 million deaths isn't close to the end.  I do hate being "a nabob of negativity" because there is some goodish news  but I'm too depressed to mention it right now.

[brewsterbudgen]

What will happen when the gamma variant is discovered? This could go on forever!

[Caldera]

May replace? Based on what we see elsewhere, it's pretty much a certainty. Unless an even more virulent variant comes along in the meantime.

[BangkokReady]

36 minutes ago, ourdon said:

Increased hospitalization rates means increased ICU rates means increased death rates.  Please .... someone explain to me where I'm wrong.

 

I think you might be off with increased hospitalisation means increased ICU rates, possibly also that increased ICU rates means increased deaths, unless you have evidence linking these in cases of the Indian variant.

 

Increased hospitalisation doesn't necessarily mean increased ICU rates.  It could do, but it would depend on how that particular variant works.

[Bkk Brian]

47 minutes ago, ourdon said:

Increased hospitalization rates means increased ICU rates means increased death rates.  Please .... someone explain to me where I'm wrong.

You're not wrong, its plain logic:

 

"The delta variant is the most dangerous SARS-CoV-2 mutation yet

It is the most transmissible form of the virus—and probably deadlier"

 

The only reason they cannot say outright that its more deadly is that the studies have not finished. However because its already proven that the Alpha variant is more deadly than the original covid-19, then the Delta with its doubling of cases to hospital over the Alpha variant would strongly suggest it is more deadly. If not then it would be an absolute anomaly.

 

 

[Lemonltr]

No words needed with this graph. 

[ourmanflint]

I see your 2-3 months and raise to 3-4 weeks! 

[Dragonboat Ronin]

It is good to note many folks here taking the variant seriously, as well as recognizing the potential for others. I encourage folks not to be overcome by depression and focus on learning more and preparing best you can. Link here to an informative video (~6 min) examining why these variants happen and what may come. Solutions? Perhaps a global-scale vaccine holiday with specific priority given to regions with highest spread regardless of national border or economic/poverty status. This is a situation where stopping the spread anywhere it is happening better helps everyone.

 

[chilli42]

New variants/mutations will continue to come along.  Each will be better adapted so that the virus is better able to overcome defenses the body employs (including defenses enabled by existing and future vaccines).  Not a very optimistic scenario.  Does anyone really think that Thailand (or the rest of the world) can continue on as we have?  A point where living becomes more important than the death count

[Denim]

No ' May ' about it.  

 

The saying ' what doesn't kill you makes you stronger ' comes to mind.

 

Lockdowns have not killed covid and it seems to go from strength to strength. The obvious danger is that a few nasty variants down the road vaccines that are currently life savers might lose some of their efficacy. 

[placnx]

11 hours ago, webfact said:

The Medical Sciences Department plans to conduct research on the efficacy of vaccines on different variants of the virus, using about 200 volunteers, by taking their blood samples for tests with virus variants to determine their immune response.

There should be trials of mRNA boosters for the Chinese vaccines, maybe on AZ as well. I'd be surprised if the West would take care of this. It needs to be done.

 

It is incredibly regrettable that the US, EU, and UK did not take stock of available worldwide production capacity for vaccines and ingredients rather than just letting the private sector get on with it. Of course, a year ago the US was not leading international efforts. The 500 million jabs now offered (eventually) are a pittance in the face of the Indian variant.

 

 

[unblocktheplanet]

Suck on this, Uncle Too: “In Beijing, local media reported more than 80% of the adult population, or 15.6 million people, have been fully vaccinated. 924 million vaccine doses.”

 

What a poor general you are! How much did you pay for those stars & bars?

[pokerface1]

On 6/17/2021 at 4:28 PM, Lemonltr said:

No words needed with this graph. 

In the beginning they said it takes years for a virus to mutate so don't worry about that being an issue. Dam did they get that wrong!!

Now we have several variants in 18 mths. How many more variants show their ugly face before this virus is controlled.

Perhaps scientists need to create a virus that kills Corona virus  at the same time is not harmful to people. 

[ourdon]

On 6/16/2021 at 11:09 PM, brewsterbudgen said:

What will happen when the gamma variant is discovered? This could go on forever!

Actually the gamma variant has been around for a while.  It's the one first identified in Brazil.

Nothing goes on forever ..... maybe my ex.  

 

I'm hoping that it does an "Andromeda Strain" and continues to mutate until it finally leaves the host alive.

 

Meantime, you should have a beer.

[timendres]

On 6/17/2021 at 6:11 AM, Destiny1990 said:

Have the found any chinese variant?

 

They are all Chinese. Thank you CCP.