Expert: High COVID Cases Justify Lockdown

[BE88]

13 minutes ago, James105 said:

 

Australia have a few problems to solve here due to their strategy on this.   What was once lauded may well prove to be a big mistake, as in a country without covid, how on earth do you convince people to take a vaccine for it?  Currently, the risk of catching and dying from covid in Australia must be an order of magnitude lower than the risk associated with taking the vaccine, even though that risk itself is very small.   

 

They are in a position where the country will remain closed so they do not let covid in, but by not letting it in they have lost the motivation from the population to be vaccinated.   Tricky conundrum really and probably will end up having to mandate its use and that will not go down well in any western country.   

 

 

 

 

I agree, their tourism and related is completely destroyed and for the most part will be so in the long future.

Example of how incompetent politicians can lead to economic catastrophe.

 

 

 

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, englishoak said:

Cases aren't a concern , only death rates are and thats slowed right down to the point of below the 5 year average per annum...The pandemic far as being lethal is  becoming less so with every varient, which is exactly what was expected,for the vast majority contracting delta its literally no more than a few cold symptoms.Sure there will be hospitalisations and death  but a bad winter flu affects upto 20% of the population or about 10m contracting and killing 20k in 6 mths over winter some years...covid is now way below that...

On the contrary, delta has been judged to be more dangerous than previous variants. What has changed in the UK is the large percentage of vaccinated persons.

[Nanaplaza666]

14 hours ago, EricTh said:

It's already too late to lockdown, most infected people have already went to other provinces.

 

You don't wait until a disaster becomes reality to lockdown. You should lockdown before the disaster happens.

 

It goes to show their incompetency. 

It's a litlle bit difficult to predict a disaster but in this case they really had the chance to predict one . The only thing they can do now is mass vaccination but the way that's going ????????

[Rimmer]

Some off topic posts removed, topic is about:

 

Expert: High COVID Cases Justify Lockdown

 

 

[englishoak]

Just now, placeholder said:

On the contrary, delta has been judged to be more dangerous than previous variants. What has changed in the UK is the large percentage of vaccinated persons.

 

Delta is just more transmissible thats all, data is showing those contracting delta both unvaccinated AND vaccinated have much less hospitalisation or serious effects, vaccinated or not. We can therefore conclude as the data shows Delta is much less lethal than previous strains.

 

Which is exactly what a successful virus does as it mutates to survive, the payoff is less lethality for more transmission,ie HIN1 and other previous deadly flu pandemic strains, all still with us but reduced to sometime seasonal inconveniences. 

 

Nature is a wonderful thing and so is heard immunity.

 

PS there is no "vaccine" perse  only flu type shots intended to mitigate the most serious effects in the most vulnerable demographic, thats all any of them actually claim to try and do. 

[placeholder]

8 minutes ago, englishoak said:

 

Delta is just more transmissible thats all, data is showing those contracting delta both unvaccinated AND vaccinated have much less hospitalisation or serious effects, vaccinated or not. We can therefore conclude as the data shows Delta is much less lethal than previous strains.

 

Which is exactly what a successful virus does as it mutates to survive, the payoff is less lethality for more transmission,ie HIN1 and other previous deadly flu pandemic strains, all still with us but reduced to sometime seasonal inconveniences. 

 

Nature is a wonderful thing and so is heard immunity.

 

PS there is no "vaccine" perse  only flu type shots intended to mitigate the most serious effects in the most vulnerable demographic, thats all any of them actually claim to try and do. 

"There is some indication that the Delta variant may also result in more severe disease. A study in Scotland, published in the Lancet, found the hospitalization rate of patients with that variant was about 85 percent higher than that of people with the Alpha variant. But because of the time lag between hospitalizations and deaths, there is not enough data to say whether or not Delta is more deadly than other variants."

 https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-dangerous-is-the-delta-variant-and-will-it-cause-a-covid-surge-in-the-u-s/

While over the long run disease vectors tend to grow less dangerous, it's early days yet and most of the human population still hasn't been exposed to the virus.

 

There's also this:

A New COVID-19 Strain More Dangerous Than The Delta Variant Detected In 30 Countries

https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/national/a-new-covid-19-strain-more-dangerous-than-the-delta-variant-detected-in-30-countries/ar-AALOiP0

It comes from Peru, the country with the highest fatality rate.

 

The only thing trait seems to be currently selected for is transmissibility.

Edited July 7, 2021 by placeholder

[ChrisKC]

Let's hope the 5th wave is

 

The bye bye one.

[hotchilli]

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

He pointed out that the Delta variant hastens the lung infection, resulting the patients being put on ventilators in just 3-5 days, compared to 7-10 days in the case of Alpha variant. If this situation is allowed to persist, he said that the need for more hospital beds will increase steadily until the entire Thai health system collapses.

Rather ominous but believable.

Thailand always boasted about being the hub of Asian health care, lets see how well they stand up when it matters.... no just doing foreigners beauty treatments.

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

For almost an entire year , Thailand's covid deaths were between 0 and 3. How can you possibly say this is the 4th wave. I'd say it's the first. or second at most.

It's a continuous wave... fast becoming a Tsunami.

[placeholder]

37 minutes ago, placeholder said:

On the contrary, delta has been judged to be more dangerous than previous variants. What has changed in the UK is the large percentage of vaccinated persons.

I overstated the case. There is some indication that the delta variant is more dangerous but it's still far from being a settled conclusion.

[Cake Monster]

14 hours ago, Caldera said:

Calling it a 4th wave is absurd. The 3rd wave, triggered by VIP partying and Songkran travel, has shown no signs of abating. It already had Delta mixed in back in April; what we see now isn't a new wave, just Delta outpacing the other variants.

This fellow also stated that the Delta Variant was 40 % more transmissible.

Many Countries are saying that it is 60 % more transmissible, and fleeting contact can cause an infection in P to P transmission.

Also he does not mention at all the fact that the Delta Variant will also infect the young people of a population, which is something the other Variants did not do so much.

[Gandtee]

15 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Fiddling while Bangkok and Thailand are burning, but do they really and truly care.  If they did, and just say they wanted tourism to return, the way they are doing it now just aint gunna wurk.

This was on the cards months ago..????

[SuwadeeS]

...because the offials talk too much, rather than do some good actions.

 

There is only one solution. Vaccinate all the people. Not only Thai.

 

Thailand discriminate foreigners again.  I hear from foreign teachers, that them were the vaccination denied.

 

Real Talk;    Vaccination is only for THAIS !!!!

 

No excuses anymore. Thais total are fashism

[englishoak]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

I overstated the case. There is some indication that the delta variant is more dangerous but it's still far from being a settled conclusion.

 

Dangerous in that its more transmissable not that its more deadly when contracted,big difference but a good use of the word dangerous,which is what articles do to attract attention.

 

Annyway,back on topic,no lockdowns wont work unless the time is used productively such as rolling out a comprehensive inoculation program whilst also allowing herd immunity to build within the population naturally by not totally shutting the doors .This is what the UK has done and Thailand/Oz others havnt

 

[Gandtee]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Well, so far, while cases have risen dramatically, hospitalizations and deaths have not. That's down to widespread vaccination.

Vaccinations must be a priority and vaccines made available. Not just reports of 'procurement.' Procurement could mean, this time, some time, never! ????

[poskat]

lockdowns dont stop a virus from spreading, but effective vaccines do.

 

this image is from the Hopkins dashboard of US  covid cases/deaths/vaccinations.

 

it clearly shows that as vaccination levels increase, cases/deaths correspondingly plummet.

[placeholder]

16 minutes ago, englishoak said:

 

Dangerous in that its more transmissable not that its more deadly when contracted,big difference but a good use of the word dangerous,which is what articles do to attract attention.

 

Annyway,back on topic,no lockdowns wont work unless the time is used productively such as rolling out a comprehensive inoculation program whilst also allowing herd immunity to build within the population naturally by not totally shutting the doors .This is what the UK has done and Thailand/Oz others havnt

 

Did you notice that I cited some research that seems to show the Delta variant is more dangerous?

[placeholder]

18 minutes ago, englishoak said:

 

Dangerous in that its more transmissable not that its more deadly when contracted,big difference but a good use of the word dangerous,which is what articles do to attract attention.

 

Annyway,back on topic,no lockdowns wont work unless the time is used productively such as rolling out a comprehensive inoculation program whilst also allowing herd immunity to build within the population naturally by not totally shutting the doors .This is what the UK has done and Thailand/Oz others havnt

 

And your claim that the Delta variant is less dangerous is supported by no evidence that I could find. Care to share that evidence with the rest of us?

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, James105 said:

 

Australia have a few problems to solve here due to their strategy on this.   What was once lauded may well prove to be a big mistake, as in a country without covid, how on earth do you convince people to take a vaccine for it?  Currently, the risk of catching and dying from covid in Australia must be an order of magnitude lower than the risk associated with taking the vaccine, even though that risk itself is very small.   

 

They are in a position where the country will remain closed so they do not let covid in, but by not letting it in they have lost the motivation from the population to be vaccinated.   Tricky conundrum really and probably will end up having to mandate its use and that will not go down well in any western country.   

Intelligent people in Australia will queue up for vaccination. The dumb ones won't. If the death rate was higher among younger people, perhaps that would change.

There will be other motivations in play, such as refusing employment to unvaccinated people in certain fields, and banning them from travel in aircraft. It will shake out eventually.

[wasabi]

Too bad this couldn't be avoided. If only there were effective vaccines everyone has known about for a year now that they could've signed up to get free.

[placeholder]

44 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Rather ominous but believable.

Thailand always boasted about being the hub of Asian health care, lets see how well they stand up when it matters.... no just doing foreigners beauty treatments.

It was about providing excellent Healthcare to foreigners at cut-rate prices. Nothing to do with a public health system.

[J Town]

15 minutes ago, poskat said:

Lockdowns don't stop a virus from spreading, but effective vaccines do.

<snip>

Dr. Fauci recently announced over 99% of Americans hospitalized from Covid are not vaccinated. For cryin' out loud, those numbers SCREAM the solution!

[Geoherb]

Sandy Bottom's post is spot.As long as you have access to competent (not a given) treatment is well advanced and recovery rates are high. Its the long term effects ie long haulers, which can have serious consequences. Loss of the sense of smell and taste is more than an inconvenience. Brain, heart respiratory, energy levels, etc are quite a basket of recovery issues

[soalbundy]

15 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

he urged everyone to cooperate in the fight against the new variant and to report for inoculation,

 

The problem isn't people reporting for a vaccine, it's been the total incompetence of those in charge in getting enough to vaccinate the populace within a respectable timeframe !

How true, I asked about vaccines at a private hospital in Surin, although they took down my phone number they aren't even making a list of applicants until they are sure of even being able to get vaccines to distribute, my missus rang them up again and said we want moderna, they said that was noted and most inquiries asked for the same but they just don't know when they can get their hands on it, great prospects for my 'in and out' November trip to Bangkok to get my pension letter from the German embassy..

[connda]

14 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

he urged everyone to cooperate in the fight against the new variant and to report for inoculation,

They are eventually expecting a percentage of the population to balk at the shot.  He must have the official "talking points", but he just played the "appeal to the populace to follow government orders and report for vaccination" card too soon, as the majority of the public are voluntarily lining up in the streets (for Western shots very literally) to obtain or still register for a shot during these current vaccination shortages. 
Then speaking about talking points.  Make sure to add the talking point and refer to SARS-coV-2 as coming in waves in order to keep the unwashed masses frightened.  But Khun "Expert" doesn't understand wave mechanics.  A wave is a defined by peaks and troughs. 
Peak - Trough - wave 1
Peak- Trough - wave 2

Peak -Trough - wave 3
With "cases" still climbing out of the Wave 3 trough and rising, and having never yet fallen into a Trough, this is still very much Wave 3.

No doubt the talking points says to dispense with reality and just scare the bejesus out of the commoners.  It's spewing flawed hyperbole like this where they lose people who still possess analytical abilities and are capable of observation and critical analysis.
At the rate we are going though, those with analytical abilities who dare to question any of the coveted assumptions driving this "pandemic" will eventually be purged just like academics, teachers, intellectuals, and professionals and even people who wore glasses (glasses = smart) were purged in the Khmer Putch of the mid-1970s. And for similar reasons.
Little did I expect to live long enough to see days like these.
Phenomenal in its genius.
 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, connda said:

They are eventually expecting a percentage of the population to balk at the shot.  He must have the official "talking points", but he just played the "appeal to the populace to follow government orders and report for vaccination" card too soon, as the majority of the public are voluntarily lining up in the streets (for Western shots very literally) to obtain or still register for a shot during these current vaccination shortages. 
Then speaking about talking points.  Make sure to add the talking point and refer to SARS-coV-2 as coming in waves in order to keep the unwashed masses frightened.  But Khun "Expert" doesn't understand wave mechanics.  A wave is a defined by peaks and troughs. 
Peak - Trough - wave 1
Peak- Trough - wave 2

Peak -Trough - wave 3
With "cases" still climbing out of the Wave 3 trough and rising, and having never yet fallen into a Trough, this is still very much Wave 3.

 

You sure about that?

"What occurs when two or more waves pass through one another. Also called superposition. When overlapping waves produce a wave with an amplitude that is the sum of the individual waves. When overlapping waves produce a wave with an amplitude that is less than the sum of the individual waves."

https://www.khanacademy.org/science/high-school-physics/waves-and-sound/wave-interference/a/wave-interference-ap1#:~:text=What occurs when two or,Also called superposition.&text=When overlapping waves produce a,sum of the individual waves.&text=Destructive interference-,When overlapping waves produce a wave with an amplitude that,sum of the individual waves.

[Pedrogaz]

The end is nigh! 

[NoshowJones]

2 hours ago, Sandy Bottom said:

The survival rate is high, however long term there are several problems, according to CDC https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/long-term-effects.html

We keep on hearing about the 5000 plus average cases per day, during the 1st wave, if it actually was a wave, we were told every day how many had recovered and left hospital.

How long will it take for the average person among the 6000 odd people reported today 07/07/2021 to completely recover and go home?

[DavisH]

7 hours ago, ezzra said:

27,000 infected in the UK yesterday and no lockdown, infect, in a few days the UK will be open to business as usual, what the UK health authorities knows that the Thai or even the Aussies don't? whom, in Australia enough for someone to sneeze to put the whole city into lockdown...

The are going for herd immunity now. Mask wearing and social distancing will be advised but not mandated.

[alation]

Gee, that's painting a lot of hysteria, I know the the Indian strain is a lot easier to transfer but the statistics show that it's not as bad and the original covid 19. Anyway take care Thailand.