42 minutes ago, Neal182 said:

A group of expats that I know posted photos on FB celebrating a friend's birthday drinking beer out of coffee cups. Packed in to a small bar. Pathetic.! Thais are in deep trouble in so many ways and these guys have no regard for the rules. Can't manage without their talking s**t and drinking beer. 

Come to our village, plenty of Thais doing exactly the same. Facebook is packed with Thais celebrating with friends. General human nature rather than nationality specific.

Maybe ask Yab Ba ยาบ้า manufacturers to make vaccines they have got the networks for delivery already set up. ????????????

15 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Did you really expect anything different based on the other countries who were hit by the Delta variant.

Personally, I was expecting the numbers to rise, but not quite as quickly as it has. I think many would admit they are a bit surprised by the rapid increased the last 2-3 days (if they were being honest). I would have said 10,000 by the end of July. It looks to be much quicker than that unfortunately.

Quote

 

2020?  Were the number in 2020 under reported?  Even WHO praised Thailand for how it successfully responded to the pandemic in 2020.  To me it appears that saying "more testing, more cases" is true.  

A reported post with misinformation and a response to it have been removed.

8 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I am just talking about one snippet of data (hospital walk-in cases) that has some near term predictive value. 
 

yes, I know that people are waiting to be admitted. Yes, I know that it rained somewhere. But, to do data analysis, you have to ignore stuff that isn’t predictive.

 

I am not saying that data analysis of this one snippet can tell us everything about the epidemic. The problem is that the Data Deniers are as uncomfortable talking about data analysis as Covid Deniers are about modern medicine. So, they act out. It is much more fun for them to post incessantly about the Thai government.

 "data deniers" at least you've stopped labeling people as "doom mongers" since the reality finally hit you.

 

 

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

I am just talking about one snippet of data (hospital walk-in cases) that has some near term predictive value.

Nup. Nup. 

Zero, Zip.

Watch the dead Parrot sketch Monty Python, or still better the cheese sketch.

Where the guy is trying to buy cheese. Think of him as 'Walk in' looking for testing. 

The shop owner stating that we are 'Maxed Out'.

Or Seinfeld Soup guy.

"No soup for you"

Move on with your 'near term predictive value'. Nothing to be seen here.

 

 

40 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

This report and earlier one for another province has surprised me. I assumed the lockdown of outbound travel would start with Bangkok.

I wonder if Phuket will join the list. 

Might be situation where all the governor's follow one by one to be seen as being pro-active.

I agree completely, it will be as before so that each provincial governor sets his tone to restrict ingress and egress.  

7 minutes ago, BestB said:

Sinovac hardly protects you from Alpha, it is something like 30% from delta. Your odds just as good as not getting one at all

Im not talking about infection but how the disease develops. That is different from the protection against contracting it.

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

 "data deniers" at least you've stopped labeling people as "doom mongers" since the reality finally hit you.

 

 

As you can see from your chart, infections were not rising much, until the Delta variant hit in June, provoking a sharp increase.

 

The Doom and Gloom types had no idea that Delta was coming, back in May, yet they denied that case numbers were flat, based on nothing.

1 minute ago, DrJack54 said:

Nup. Nup. 

Zero, Zip.

Watch the dead Parrot sketch Monty Python, or still better the cheese sketch.

Where the guy is trying to buy cheese. Think of him as 'Walk in' looking for testing. 

The shop owner stating that we are 'Maxed Out'.

Or Seinfeld Soup guy.

"No soup for you"

Move on with your 'near term predictive value'. Nothing to be seen here.

 

 

And yet, hospital walk-in case numbers are predictive of near term new infection numbers.

 

9 minutes ago, BestB said:

Sinovac hardly protects you from Alpha, it is something like 30% from delta. Your odds just as good as not getting one at all

False. It provides a very high degree of protection from symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization and death.

Just now, placeholder said:

False. It provides a very high degree of protection from symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization and death.

who are you trying to convince

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Camping out in the pouring rain last night to get tested this morning.

 

There’s something seriously wrong with the system when people feel the need to queue up all night in the rain in order to get a free Covid-19 test. Imagine the number of cases we would have if mass testing was freely available. Something urgently needs to be done about this.

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1413273823449796611

 

Many people are camping out overnight hoping to get a covid test at Wat Phra Sri Mahathat in the morning. Some are sitting in the rain because there’s not enough shelters. The government is being criticised for making it difficult to get tested.

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1413187011238711296

 

A valid question is what the government did, while it had few covid cases to deal with last year, to increase testing capacity. It’s vaccine procurement strategy now looks complacent and misguided.

https://twitter.com/pakhead/status/1413328007788253185

 

Just now, smedly said:

who are you trying to convince

Not so much the willfully ignorant, but those who read their comments.

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

As you can see from your chart, infections were not rising much, until the Delta variant hit in June, provoking a sharp increase.

 

The Doom and Gloom types had no idea that Delta was coming, back in May, yet they denied that case numbers were flat, based on nothing.

Why do you say people had no idea that Delta would hit. Just because you did not forsee it does not mean others did not. The variants travel all over the world it was just a matter of time. A big oversight on you.. to focused on data instead of what could happen.  You just thought it would always be these strains. But the Brit variant arrived too.. so it was inevitable that delta would come too. 

Just now, Danderman123 said:

And yet, hospital walk-in case numbers are predictive of near term new infection numbers.

 

What are 'stay at home' case numbers predictive of.

Or "I went to hospital and there was a sign no testing, no beds, closed". Where are those case numbers listed.

Or "I can't be stuffed to go to hospital for testing" case numbers.

Or I live a long way from hospital and can't get there case numbers.

 

How did yesterday's "predictive of near term new infection numbers" match up with today's 9k number.

32 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

  1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Mostly I think they spell exponential incorrectly especially exponential deniers.I rarely spell everting correctly I mostly rely on  builtin spell check and google I'm bloody hopless at spelling.

Yikes! You mean you have run out of beer?

11 minutes ago, robblok said:

Im not talking about infection but how the disease develops. That is different from the protection against contracting it.

And I am telling you again, Sinovac is almost ineffective for Delta while somewhat little effective for alpha 

15 minutes ago, sqwakvfr said:

2020?  Were the number in 2020 under reported?  Even WHO praised Thailand for how it successfully responded to the pandemic in 2020.  To me it appears that saying "more testing, more cases" is true.  

WHO also praised China in early 2020 for "openness", despite their calculated disinformation campaign.

10 minutes ago, placeholder said:

False. It provides a very high degree of protection from symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization and death.

Says who ? Anutin or you? Other country’s who used it would disagree with your “facts”

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Very often the health experts are accused of fear mongering and creating panic by modeling potential high numbers unless steps are taken, in this case they have all underestimated how quickly this would take over Thailand.

 

What half hearted measures are we going to see that will address the exponential spread of the virus? A two week soft lockdown will have little impact, only strict measures will have any hope of denting the curve and give enough time for the health service to catch up. 

 

Its not only Bangkok and surrounding Provinces now, its spread throughout Thailand and unless measures are taken throughout then its possible the health service will get stretched throughout Thailand and a complete collapse, a nightmare scenario.

 

Rolling 7 day average (up to 7th July only) which includes prison cases and bar chart of community cases.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand

 

If you look at this graphic in a week we will be at 20,000 infected, if nothing is caught in the epidemic and completely out of control in two weeks

 

 

 

 

Would be great if those in the opening few posts who so brilliantly put up the key data summaries could start to add a daily vaccination chart.

2 minutes ago, Spilornis said:

Would be great if those in the opening few posts who so brilliantly put up the key data summaries could start to add a daily vaccination chart.

They do.

The chart has daily shots along with target graph. Currently the actual daily jabs are well below target.

1 hour ago, 4MyEgo said:

I did predict in an earlier post here on TVF when a so called professor said that we could see 10,000 infections per day by the end of the year, and I replied that it could be by end of the month, but now I will have to revise my figures to say by tomorrow.

 

Now if that professor is so clever NOT, think about the rest running this country, maybe I should throw it out there, i.e. that we could reach NATURAL herd immunity by years end because we have no vaccines, and I ain't no professor.

 

Professor is a job title not a qualification.  And we all know how people get the top jobs in LOS.

 

The rate this is going could easily reach 20,000 within a week. Omg

13 minutes ago, robblok said:

Why do you say people had no idea that Delta would hit. Just because you did not forsee it does not mean others did not. The variants travel all over the world it was just a matter of time. A big oversight on you.. to focused on data instead of what could happen.  You just thought it would always be these strains. But the Brit variant arrived too.. so it was inevitable that delta would come too. 

Getting back to reality, no one was saying here “cases may be flat now, in May, but the Delta variant is coming in June, and then cases will skyrocket”.

 

Do you have any insight into when the Epsilon variant is coming and it’s impact?

8 minutes ago, BestB said:

Says who ? Anutin or you? Other country’s who used it would disagree with your “facts”

Please, list the other countries that would disagree with my statement that Sinovac is very effective in lowering hospitalizatons and death in the case of Alpha. In fact, virtually every country that has reported on Sinovac's performance against the every variant on which studies have been made, shows that it is very effective against hospitalization and death. Stop spreading falsehoods.

4 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

They do.

The chart has daily shots along with target graph. Currently the actual daily jabs are well below target.

Sorry my Thai is no good.

Is that the figure 317,506 in the second diagram in the opening post

Thanks

11 minutes ago, BE88 said:

 

If you look at this graphic in a week we will be at 20,000 infected, if nothing is caught in the epidemic and completely out of control in two weeks

 

 

 

 

Indeed. I haven’t seen an actual official calculation of how many days it’s taking for virus cases to double, but it’s getting shorter and shorter obviously.