Thai economy may miss forecasts as COVID-19 cases spike - central bank

[webfact]

FILE PHOTO: A view of Bangkok's port amid the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Bangkok, Thailand, June 21, 2020. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo

 

By Orathai Sriring and Satawasin Staporncharnchai

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy faces significant downside risks and could perform below baseline forecasts, the central bank said on Monday, as the tourism-reliant nation deals with a recent jump in coronavirus infections.

 

Thailand's biggest outbreak so far has seen a spike in cases and deaths this month, prompting tougher containment measures in the capital Bangkok and nine provinces from Monday.

 

The restrictions would have a bigger-than-expected impact on the economy, Chayawadee Chai-Anant, a senior director at the Bank of Thailand (BOT), said at an analyst meeting.

 

"This policy may be more severe than expected and will likely affect economic activity more than forecast," she said.

 

The prolonged outbreak and virus mutation could delay herd immunity and reopening plans and dent confidence, she said.

 

"It's highly likely that the baseline (projections) will shift lower," Chayawadee said.

 

Last month, the BOT cut its 2021 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% from 3.0% and the 2022 outlook to 3.9% from 4.7%, due to anticipated lower numbers of foreign tourists.

 

The BOT has left its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.50% since mid-2020 after three cuts to ease the impact of the pandemic.

 

Monetary policy will remain accommodative and the central bank is ready to use policy tools as necessary to ease the impact of outbreak, the BoT said.

 

The BOT will closely monitor the outbreak and assess whether existing measures are sufficient, said Deputy Governor Mathee Supapongse. "A combination of financial, fiscal and public heath measures should be done appropriately," he said.

 

In May, the king approved a further 500 billion baht ($15.4 billion) of borrowing to cope with the outbreak.

 

Thailand started its mass vaccination drive last month but has had limited vaccine supply. So far, 3.27 million out of Thailand's more than 66 million people are fully vaccinated.

 

($1 = 32.51 baht)

 

(Reporting by Orathai Sriring, Satawasin Staporncharnchai and Kitiphong Thaichareon; Editing by Ed Davies)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2021-07-12

 

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[pissedoff2am]

They are going to need to keep revising these numbers lower. I see a lot of for rent and for sale signs and there was already massive mal-investment all over this country before Covid.

[Lingba]

May miss?

[LazySlipper]

Hmmm... dollar is doing better against the bht... so I guess all is not lost ~_~

[RichardColeman]

13 hours ago, webfact said:

Last month, the BOT cut its 2021 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% from 3.0% and the 2022 outlook to 3.9% from 4.7%, due to anticipated lower numbers of foreign tourists.

 

Yeah, yeah, blame the foreigners ! Again

[JonnyF]

I can only imagine how catastrophic this will be for the Thai economy. Now with the lockdown they've lost domestic as well as foreign tourism, plus domestic consumption must be through the floor with malls, restaurants and entertainment venues closed.

 

I doubt the real numbers will be released as it would be too dangerous for the government to do so, but with tourism close to 20% of GDP, plus domestic consumption slashed you'd have to estimate the loss in GDP is between 20 and 25% when compared to 2019 (no point comparing to 2020 since that was also disastrous). 

 

Of course, most of this could have been avoided by simply buying every vaccine they could get their hands on. But no, certain individuals saw money to be made so decided to put personal gain ahead of the health of the Thai people and the health of the Thai economy. And these people claim to love Thailand. Amazing indeed.

 

 

[hotchilli]

18 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand's economy faces significant downside risks and could perform below baseline forecasts, the central bank said on Monday, as the tourism-reliant nation deals with a recent jump in coronavirus infections.

That's a no-brainer....

[hotchilli]

47 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Of course, most of this could have been avoided by simply buying every vaccine they could get their hands on. But no, certain individuals saw money to be made so decided to put personal gain ahead of the health of the Thai people and the health of the Thai economy. And these people claim to love Thailand. Amazing indeed.

Got it in one.... self inflicted.

[redwood1]

18 hours ago, LazySlipper said:

Hmmm... dollar is doing better against the bht... so I guess all is not lost ~_~

Based on my chart reading the dollar,pound,euro should be doing better for a looooog time to come...

Edited July 13, 2021 by redwood1

[CrunchWrapSupreme]

That's why the banks are tossing out car loans, trying to pump up those numbers, THOSE ARE ROOKIE NUMBERS!

 

Despite being out in the Issan sticks, my school parking lot now has a ton of red plates. I'm seeing red plates on the road whereever I drive. I think they even ran out of red plates, because now I'm seeing new cars without them. Then me and my wife just got ours a few months ago, easily qualifying for the loan.

Edited July 13, 2021 by CrunchWrapSupreme

[bert bloggs]

Pound at its highest for about 4 years ,lets hope it goes higher,as for empty stores whenever we are in tesco or big c all we ever see is falangs with their wives/ girlfriends shopping. Also so many products not available our cat is so <deleted> off as her favourite cat food not available.

[Laughing Gravy]

20 hours ago, webfact said:

The restrictions would have a bigger-than-expected impact on the economy, Chayawadee Chai-Anant, a senior director at the Bank of Thailand (BOT), said at an analyst meeting.

 

"This policy may be more severe than expected and will likely affect economic activity more than forecast," she said.

Why is this a surprise! Is it that the leaders just talk BS and have their heads in the clouds. Maybe Thai politicians should be held accountable for their consistent lies that they spread.

[Laughing Gravy]

20 hours ago, webfact said:

Last month, the BOT cut its 2021 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% from 3.0% and the 2022 outlook to 3.9% from 4.7%, due to anticipated lower numbers of foreign tourists.

is this final admittance that those 6 million Brits are not coming to Thailand this year.

[joebrown]

35 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

Why is this a surprise! Is it that the leaders just talk BS and have their heads in the clouds. Maybe Thai politicians should be held accountable for their consistent lies that they spread.

The politicians will never be held accountable while they have the backing of the military and the person who can't be mentioned.