3 months of semi-lockdown required to bring pandemic under control – KKP Research

[hotchilli]

11 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

KKP Research, of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, has predicted that the latest COVID-19 outbreak will be longer than expected, due to the Delta variant, the slow imposition of lockdown measures and slow roll out of mass vaccinations, and that semi-lockdown measures will have to be in place for at least three months to ease the situation.

A great testament to the governments handling of the situation.

[stigar]

i left thailand and my gf last moth..she have the same thinkiing way..goodgye

[mrfill]

11 hours ago, 2 is 1 said:

Let your currency float and get value something like 1$ is 45 bth then your export industry go up like rocket. Also you maybe get tourist in country some day in future!

If they fiddle their currenct rate the US will act. Thailand is already on their currency manipulation list and has been on it for months.

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/economy/officials-not-worried-thailand-remains-on-us-currency-watch-list

[jacko45k]

11 minutes ago, aviator581 said:

So vaccines will solve the problem? Like in the west?  OK. 

Be optimistic.... it appears to have reduced hospitalizations and deaths by large factors in Western Countries. ...... 

[phukettrader]

17 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Yes really.....worldwide it is =2.1% of cases. Bigger sample.....

Death is not the only poor outcome by the way. 

I thought we were talking about Thailand here?

 

Even taking the worldwide rate of 2.1%, that's still more than 97% of cases (not total population) that do NOT die from it, and far less than the 8-10% of cases to death from influenza in any normal year (before the flu miraculously disappeared last year).

 

Remember also that the figures for covid are always stated from the start of the pandemic - one and a half years so far, rather than for a single "season".

 

Nobody is trying make light of those who have lost their lives to this virus, but for God's sake, lets start having some grown up debate about the effects on people's physical and mental health due to lockdowns etc

Edited July 23, 2021 by phukettrader

[Bim Smith]

So it's a lockdown. You can't be a little bit pregnant. You either are or aren't. Well I await the mass civil unrest. 

[jacko45k]

7 minutes ago, phukettrader said:

Even taking the worldwide rate of 2.1%, that's still more than 97% of cases (not total population)

Why would we consider total population when evaluating how fatal an infection is.... might as well include cats and dogs?

 

I appreciate the numbers include early events, from 2020 and deaths/ infection now are certainly less due to vaccination and improved medical reaction. But vaccination is the only way out... and until Thailand get moving on that, suppression with lockdown type restrictions are needed to hold back the swamping of those medical services. 

Edited July 23, 2021 by jacko45k

[crazykopite]

7 hours ago, John Drake said:

Three more months of this extending to more provinces and Thailand will breakdown and come apart at the seams.

it already has but there keeping quiet about it

[thailand49]

12 minutes ago, aviator581 said:

So vaccines will solve the problem? Like in the west?  OK. 

Yes there are problems in the West everywhere but it isn't because of the lack of vaccine it is the abundance of freedom!  Freedom is good but there are times Freedom hinters progress because every John and Jane Doe think they know more than the next person I'm not taking sides just stirring the pot but everything I'm reading is those being infected now in the West particularly in the U.S. are the ones who have chosen not to be vaccinated? 

 

When it comes to vaccines in Thailand, they put all their eggs with the Chinese vaccine, then AZ on the surface to monopolize the market and get the leaders here rich hoping to overtake the CEO of Pfizer and Moderna, thus the reason not to join Covax. There is a long list of bad ideas but one thing the West do have are vaccines so much of it that many are giving it to the Covax program but wait Thailand didn't join but want to now! 

 

Here is how I see it too, Thailand look down on Laos, when it was pasted all over Thai T.V. that Laos this week got 1.3 millions of doses of Pfizer from the U.S. under the Covax program it must really burn the leaders and Thai people if it was anything like my Thai neighbor who basically said " F Chan O wish he would go away and die even the Laos has vaccine "

 

Vaccine will not solve the problem but it is a major component to slowing down the problem if your hoping for the government to solve the problem I'm for one not holding my breath.

 

 

[ftpjtm]

1 hour ago, jacko45k said:

The factories are still churning it out.... I chat to the Mrs and ask after family members, Niece still gets picked up daily to be taken to the Korat factory...brother still in manufacturing. Although I hear one relative has had his hours reduced, 3 day week, no overtime for ages.... another there was a Covid detection and he cannot work for 14 days......  the factory is still open but some lines are shut down. 

This is why it is a partial lockdown and will take time to work. 

I used to be heavily involved in the Thai textile industry. Most of my customers were reliant on their showrooms in Pratunam market to introduce new products and make sales to new customers.

 

I would imagine that Pratunam market is a shadow of what it is in normal times with the lockdowns and international entry restrictions.

 

Yes, I'm sure textile manufacturers do more internet and remote sales these days, but in person visuals and meetings are still very important components in business. As are visits from international machinery suppliers and service techs.

 

I'm sure most of my former textile manufacturing customers are not having their best days in 2021.

[newnative]

With a tip of the hat to the wonderful James Carville, It's the vaccines, stupid.  

[jacko45k]

5 minutes ago, ftpjtm said:

I'm sure most of my former textile manufacturing customers are not having their best days in 2021.

I am sure the worldwide market as well as domestic is depressed, but I hear of many still at work in dark red zones.... impossible to prevent spread in these circumstances. They still go home at night. 

Edited July 23, 2021 by jacko45k

[cclub75]

47 minutes ago, phukettrader said:

Really? According to the governments figures yesterday, cases = 453,132, deaths = 3,697 = 0.816% of cases

Ouch... It hurts.

 

Even a simple math operation seems... something elusive... and too hard to check.

 

Add to this another fact, seen in every country : people died of Covid... at old age. And most of the time with at least 1 comorbidity...

 

Yes. We see some "young"... but in that case they are often... obese.

 

By the way, something i do not understand : why we never see (Thailand or any country) prevention campaigns to inform groups at risk ? For instance for obese people ?

 

Why the gvt do not tell them : "be cautious, you are in the crossfire of covid... stay home... get vaccinated, avoid contacts" ?

 

It costs nothing to do, and it would help.

 

The only problem is that it would break the image of this "pandemic" that can hit anybody anytime anywhere...

 

This is not science.

[poskat]

7 hours ago, John Drake said:

Three more months of this extending to more provinces and Thailand will breakdown and come apart at the seams.

I have been wondering when this issue was going to be brought up on TV.

 

Hospitals are now at their limit for treating people, resulting in people dying waiting for treatment, peoples' income now halted for the foreseeable future, and reports of high, 30%, infection rates now being found in food factories that could results in food shortages.

 

people dying in the streets, resulting in issuance of the good news that a corpse is not infectious

can only be interpreted as being at the edge of societal breakdown.

 

 

[dlclark97]

Three months of semi-lockdown may help a little but what is really needed and of an immediate priority is country wide vaccination with vaccines known to be highly effective against the DELTA variant, stricter limits on province to province travel especially over holiday periods and strict enforcement of gathering limits.  Just go to the beaches on any non work day to see fairly large gatherings, no masks, no social distancing and plenty of alcohol.  And yes, you will probably see some foreigners there but they will be in the minority.      

[strabel23]

11 hours ago, 2 is 1 said:

Let your currency float and get value something like 1$ is 45 bth then your export industry go up like rocket. Also you maybe get tourist in country some day in future!

Lol. The baht has been in free float since 1997. Where have you been?

 

[roath]

57 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Yes really.....worldwide it is =2.1% of cases. Bigger sample.....

Death is not the only poor outcome by the way. 

Also, the figures are based on people getting treatment. If Covid was simply allowed to spread unchecked, hospitals would be overwhelmed, leading to far higher mortality rates. Just look at India as en example, where they have had people dying on the streets outside hospitals. Long covid is also proving a massive problem, leading to people being incapacitated and even blindness. But presumably these covidiots think that that's ok isn't it, even though that's part of the "survival" rate

[sucit]

Wow. Are they serious? If only we could get this in writing. Three months would be miraculous. I’m better more like three years of this. 

[Iforbach]

If they don't get enough vaccines this lock down will never end ..and rightly said it's more less total lock down,, ..can't walk on beach . Jesus ..but u can gwt 20 people in a 7/11.. 

[Henryford]

1 hour ago, phukettrader said:

Really? According to the governments figures yesterday, cases = 453,132, deaths = 3,697 = 0.816% of cases

And that's the % of people who died WITH Covid not necessarily FROM Covid. In the UK they always quote 130,000 deaths from Covid as though non of those 130,000 would have died in 18 months old age, heart attacks, cancer etc.

Edited July 23, 2021 by Henryford

[sucit]

15 minutes ago, dlclark97 said:

Three months of semi-lockdown may help a little but what is really needed and of an immediate priority is country wide vaccination with vaccines known to be highly effective against the DELTA variant, stricter limits on province to province travel especially over holiday periods and strict enforcement of gathering limits.  Just go to the beaches on any non work day to see fairly large gatherings, no masks, no social distancing and plenty of alcohol.  And yes, you will probably see some foreigners there but they will be in the minority.      

And yet maybe the people with masks on subways or in grocery stores are transmitting more than those people without masks on the beach. You don’t know. In fact, it’s been shown that outdoor infections are much less common. So maybe those people inside who you approve of are the culprits. Making any sense yet? You know nothing. Stop judging others. 

[CygnusX1]

1 hour ago, phukettrader said:

Really? According to the governments figures yesterday, cases = 453,132, deaths = 3,697 = 0.816% of cases

I think there’d be very few on this forum who’d disagree with the statement that the amount of testing in Thailand is way less than in many other countries, suggesting that the infection fatality rate is far less than 0.8%, especially that enough time’s now elapsed in the current outbreak to remove a lot of the lag. Evidence of some degree of pre existing immunity in Thailand?

[John Drake]

1 hour ago, Skeptic7 said:

Hoping so. Comuppence long overdue. 

I don't know if you live here. But if you do, and things do come unglued, those of us who are foreigners may think we can sit it out. But don't be surprised if while taking so much as a 100 meter walk to the nearest ATM you are robbed and beaten. People desperate for money to pay their rent, find food for their family, or pay their electric bill are going to see you as the natural target. Of course, I could be wrong, and I suppose the police will do everything in their power to protect you.

[brucegoniners]

Yes. It’s a must.

[sucit]

1 minute ago, John Drake said:

I don't know if you live here. But if you do, and things do come unglued, those of us who are foreigners may think we can sit it out. But don't be surprised if while taking so much as a 100 meter walk to the nearest ATM you are robbed and beaten. People desperate for money to pay their rent, find food for their family, or pay their electric bill are going to see you as the natural target. Of course, I could be wrong, and I suppose the police will do everything in their power to protect you.

Bro. That’s not a possible scenario. Do u live here? 

[bkk6060]

They showed start a Wuhan style lockdown next week.  100% stay home at least one month and see how it goes.

[DrJack54]

1 hour ago, mtls2005 said:

Until you have a real vaccination plan, with at least 100 mm doses of a real vaccine IN HAND, defining any lockdown period is folly.

 

 

The semi- quasi- mini- half-vaxxed lockdown will last until real vaccines are administered at the rate of 750,000 per day (min).

 

Until then it will be an endless series of wave, lockdown, opening, wave, lockdown, opening.  Way past the definition of "insanity".

 

 

What would you recommend. 

Let's assume vaccine (other than sinovac) not available in meaningful supply until next year. 

BTW 750K per day won't happen. The first big push in vaccination effort reached bit under 500k (June 7)

[Globaleyes]

2 hours ago, jacko45k said:

False information.... 

relating to the person who claimed that the disease has more than a 99% survival rate.

Well, I've looked at the fatality rates from around the world and the number of PUBLISHED fatalities compared to the number of PUBLISHED cases does indeed work out at about a 1% fatality rate.  This is easy maths.

If you think the 99% figure is wrong, can you show some evidence for a different one?

 

[shackleton]

People have been talking endlessly here on the Subject of total vaccination 

For the whole population  no one in Government were listening 

There now should be a restricted lockdown until years end 

Concentrate on getting the vaccination program  on track 

For the whole Country not just your Phuket sandbox ect 

[gojdthai2016]

Recent study of delta fatality rates after transmission in the uk show fatality rate of .2 to .3 compared to alpha strain of 1.8 to 2 .....180000 cases study in my understanding of maths the likelihood of dying from the delta is between 1 in 500 to I in 333 after being diagnosed with it