Thailand reports 14,260 new COVID-19 cases, 119 more deaths

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, jacob29 said:

It's not about inclusion though. If I include quality data in a baseline of low quality (self reported) data, I'm still going to get low quality results. The sampling needs to be controlled, it needs to exclude biased samples (specifically where testing was targeted to people presenting with symptoms).

These are the official stats from credible sources, of course you are disputing this so provide the evidence that contradicts the CFR of all the countries listed and supports your claim

Edited July 24, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[anchadian]

Some 'sandbox' scheme visitors in Phuket face cancelled flights

 

BANGKOK - A two-week holiday in Phuket has hit a snag for some travellers as new restrictions on domestic flights and land travel have ruffled nerves and sent a handful scrambling for alternative travel options.

 

For one Thai national who entered Phuket under the Sandbox reopening scheme and plans to visit her aged parents in Bangkok, this means resorting to a two-day road trip to the capital as her domestic flight next week was cancelled.

 

"I was worried that I would be stuck in Phuket, but I immediately tried to gather all my options," said the part-time translator in her 50s, who wanted to be known only by her nickname Da.

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/some-sandbox-scheme-visitors-in-phuket-face-cancelled-flights

Edited July 24, 2021 by anchadian

[wensiensheng]

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Phuket 11 new local cases today, 2 new sandbox cases & 1 new infected from abroad. I new covid death today bringing total to 10.

https://www.facebook.com/NewshawkPhuket/posts/2954619328121237

Is that 50 in 3 days now?

[ThailandRyan]

12 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Phuket 11 new local cases today, 2 new sandbox cases & 1 new infected from abroad. I new covid death today bringing total to 10.

https://www.facebook.com/NewshawkPhuket/posts/2954619328121237

Oh no, that just wont do, Cant be shedding a negative light on such a well developed plan that was only supposed to open up when they had 70% vaccinated, and then once 90 cases were found closed.  Yes my post is sarcastic.  I do however feel sorry for those vaccinated tourists that have now tested positive after being in Phuket for a few days already, and then I feel bad for those stranded with no flights out to return whence they came from.

Edited July 24, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, wensiensheng said:

Is that 50 in 3 days now?

Yes getting quite near to the cut off 90 figure! 

[anchadian]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes getting quite near to the cut off 90 figure! 

Yesterday's update WEEK 4: 36 local + 2 sandbox in two days

[wensiensheng]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Oh no, that just wont do, Cant be shedding a negative light on such a well developed plan that was only supposed to open up when they had 70% vaccinated, and then once 90 cases were found closed.  Yes my post is sarcastic.  I do however feel sorry for those vaccinate tourists that have now tested positive after being in Phuket for a few days already, and then I feel bad for those stranded with no flights out to return whence they came from.

The thing is, the number of Covid cases in Phuket is simply not a sandbox tourist issue. They are 10k out of 500k people.

 

 

[rabas]

52 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

So you have to wonder why the allotments that were paid for by folks already as reserved were cut,  and why refunds are being given. On top of that how do they decide who gets cut from getting a vaccine and receives the refund.

And, if the missing 1.1 million doses didn't go to the Red Cross, where did they go ?  Also note, the purchase wasn't signed until well after the 1.1 million doses was allegedly cut from private hospitals' allotments.

 

According to my wife, today's news also mentioned military personnel and family who wanted, were to get some of the Moderna.

 

Where is Anutin?

[wensiensheng]

1 minute ago, anchadian said:

Yesterday's update WEEK 4: 36 local + 2 sandbox in two days

Ok, so 49 now.

 

I noticed yesterday’s figure increased to 21 in today’s regional charts. Last night it showed up as 20. Wasn’t sure if an extra one showed up late.

[Bkk Brian]

The Department of Corrections are reporting 655 new infections among the inmates bringing the total to 43,099. By far the majority are in Greater Bangkok with only 10,903 in the provinces. At the moment, 5,631 are in care and 48 have died

https://twitter.com/ThaiPrisonLife/status/1418914683738902535

 

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, wensiensheng said:

The thing is, the number of Covid cases in Phuket is simply not a sandbox tourist issue. They are 10k out of 500k people.

 

 

Of course, and why my post was sarcastic in nature. The majority of the cases are residents and that's a more worrisome problem in my book as you have to wonder how many now positive were vaccinated once, or twice, or non-vaccinated.  Of those that have passed on were they vaccinated.  A lot left out to make an educated guess as to what's occurring, and then better yet what part of the island are the cases coming from, Phuket Town, Chalong, Rawai, Kata, Karon, Laguna, I mean the island has many locales where there are larger numbers of residents collectively.  I did live on Phuket for many years before moving North, and still support a friend and his family who had a Muay Thai Studio, but lost it due to covid and the closures. and are now starting again in another location in Chalong.

[wensiensheng]

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes getting quite near to the cut off 90 figure! 

Pretty sure there might be some creative accounting for this weeks number so as to carry forward some cases to next week. But if there is community spread then it’s fighting a losing battle because there will be more cases next week. Or maybe they will say it’s meant to be 90 tourist cases, ie excluding local cases.

 

anyway, they don’t need to cancel the sandbox, just do whatever is necessary to control the case count for everybody in Phuket, local and tourist alike.

 

or maybe they feel they have enough people vaccinated and can ignore case count now, a la the UK. That might be risky if the cases are delta, given the vaccine that has mostly be used.

 

we shall see.

[DrJack54]

So when was Phuket airport closed for domestic flights last.

Was it about April 10- 2020. Due to covid situation.

I'm vague about it. I recall folk could not even leave island via the bridge.

Blind Freddie could foresee this panning out in a bad way.

So apart from sandbox folk, how do expats that are in Phuket for a break get off island if they wish to

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by DrJack54

[wensiensheng]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Of course, and why my post was sarcastic in nature. The majority of the cases are residents and that's a more worrisome problem in my book as you have to wonder how many now positive were vaccinated once, or twice, or non-vaccinated.  Of those that have passed on were they vaccinated.  A lot left out to make an educated guess as to what's occurring, and then better yet what part of the island are the cases coming from, Phuket Town, Chalong, Rawai, Kata, Karon, Laguna, I mean the island has many locales where there are larger numbers of residents collectively.  I did live on Phuket for many years before moving North, and still support a friend and his family who had a Muay Thai Studio, but lost it due to covid and the closures. and are now starting again in another location in Chalong.

I for one would certainly appreciate that kind of information. I have no idea if the cases are in my district or not. Also, are they delta cases? That is the worrying strain.

 

my daughter goes to Muay Thai in Chalong twice a week, maybe I am supporting your friend too! 555

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

I for one would certainly appreciate that kind of information. I have no idea if the cases are in my district or not. Also, are they delta cases? That is the worrying strain.

 

my daughter goes to Muay Thai in Chalong twice a week, maybe I am supporting your friend too! 555

Possibly

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, wensiensheng said:

Pretty sure there might be some creative accounting for this weeks number so as to carry forward some cases to next week. But if there is community spread then it’s fighting a losing battle because there will be more cases next week. Or maybe they will say it’s meant to be 90 tourist cases, ie excluding local cases.

 

anyway, they don’t need to cancel the sandbox, just do whatever is necessary to control the case count for everybody in Phuket, local and tourist alike.

 

or maybe they feel they have enough people vaccinated and can ignore case count now, a la the UK. That might be risky if the cases are delta, given the vaccine that has mostly be used.

 

we shall see.

I agree, on the daily updates for new community cases in Phuket they have stopped stating in which district. Muddying the waters so that 3 clusters are not found which is also supposed to be a cut off point.

 

The PPHO daily report now uses a new format that does not include an updated map showing the locations of infections on Phuket.

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

I agree, on the daily updates for new community cases in Phuket they have stopped stating in which district. Muddying the waters so that 3 clusters are not found which is also supposed to be a cut off point.

 

The PPHO daily report now uses a new format that does not include an updated map showing the locations of infections on Phuket.

It is after all why I added that into my post.  Everyday, I talk with my friends who are spread around Phuket to see what's going on, some are doing ok and surviving while others are still suffering.  I have asked them to check for me and see if they hear anything to let me know as they are entrenched in the communities I listed quite well.

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

this scary. in an outbreak like this, cases are doubles every week. seems like thailand will see 40,000 cases by end of august. hopefully it will stabalise around there.

[wensiensheng]

7 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I agree, on the daily updates for new community cases in Phuket they have stopped stating in which district. Muddying the waters so that 3 clusters are not found which is also supposed to be a cut off point.

 

The PPHO daily report now uses a new format that does not include an updated map showing the locations of infections on Phuket.

 

• Wichit -  109 infections
• Phuket Town - 87 (Talad Yai 51, Talad Neua 36)
• Patong - 92
• Rassada - 87
• Kathu - 60
• Chalong - 54
• Rawai - 47
• Cherng Talay - 45
• Srisoonthorn - 39
• Thepkrasattri - 38
• Kamala - 35
• Koh Kaew - 30
• Karon - 30
• Pa Khlok - 11
• Mai Khao - 13
• Sakhu - 10

From your link. How can their not be 3 clusters out of this? And that’s as at 19th July, so before yesterday’s 20, the day before’s 18 and today’s 11. It’s also clearly in 6 more districts, which I thought was another condition.

 

in any case, tourists or no tourists, it’s a question of what Covid control measures make sense for all people on the island. Pleasing a few tourists who took the risk to come is a very distant second in my book.

Edited July 24, 2021 by wensiensheng

[wensiensheng]

6 minutes ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

this scary. in an outbreak like this, cases are doubles every week. seems like thailand will see 40,000 cases by end of august. hopefully it will stabalise around there.

Well, I suppose it’s good to hope. But I don’t think a virus works like that. It keeps going till it can’t find any more hosts.

[wensiensheng]

5 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

 

• Wichit -  109 infections
• Phuket Town - 87 (Talad Yai 51, Talad Neua 36)
• Patong - 92
• Rassada - 87
• Kathu - 60
• Chalong - 54
• Rawai - 47
• Cherng Talay - 45
• Srisoonthorn - 39
• Thepkrasattri - 38
• Kamala - 35
• Koh Kaew - 30
• Karon - 30
• Pa Khlok - 11
• Mai Khao - 13
• Sakhu - 10

From your link. How can their not be 3 clusters out of this? And that’s as at 19th July, so before yesterday’s 20, the day before’s 18 and today’s 11. It’s also clearly in 6 more districts, which I thought was another condition.

 

in any case, tourists or no tourists, it’s a question of what Covid control measures make sense for all people on the island. Pleasing a few tourists who took the risk to come is a very distant second in my book.

I just realized these are probably cumulative figures since the start of Covid. So useless.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, wensiensheng said:

I just realized these are probably cumulative figures since the start of Covid. So useless.

Yes they are, they used to put new cases in brackets next to the district they were found, this has now stopped

[jacob29]

44 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

These are the official stats from credible sources, of course you are disputing this so provide the evidence that contradicts the CFR of all the countries listed and supports your claim

Are you saying the official Thailand stats of infection numbers (included in that list), is a credible source? Pretty sure you're one of the people complaining these numbers were not credible, and for good reason.

 

It's not about contradicting the CFR of that list, as CFR is an unreliable metric. What we care about is IFR.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7810031/

 

Quote

Meyerowitz-Katz & Merone ^[11] collected and sorted through articles using data from February to April 2020 and arrived at 13 total estimates (8 modeled estimates and 5 observational estimates). The overall IFR estimate was 0.75% (95% CI: 0.49%–1.01%)

Quote

The paper also corrected the IFR estimates based on the number of antibodies tested for by dividing each estimated IFR by 1.1 for every antibody they did not test for. The seroprevalence estimates varied widely, ranging from 0.222% in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil ^[14] to 47% in Brooklyn, New York ^[15]. IFR estimates converged to a tighter range of 0.02% in Kobe, Japan ^[16] to 1.63% in Louisiana, USA ^[17], excluding the four 0.00% IFR estimates where deaths were insignificant or zero. The median IFR estimate across the 32 locations was 0.27%.

 

[wensiensheng]

13 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Yes they are, they used to put new cases in brackets next to the district they were found, this has now stopped

This of course is how the authorities lose their credibility. You cant shake off the feeling that they are hiding something.

[Rhacsyn]

38 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

Ok, so 49 now.

 

I noticed yesterday’s figure increased to 21 in today’s regional charts. Last night it showed up as 20. Wasn’t sure if an extra one showed up late.

I think that, for what it's worth, the creative counting you mention in a later post will start by only totalling local cases. Clusters will not be mentioned and case location and time lines will follow weeks after the event. Just my thoughts.

[wensiensheng]

1 minute ago, Rhacsyn said:

I think that, for what it's worth, the creative counting you mention in a later post will start by only totalling local cases. Clusters will not be mentioned and case location and time lines will follow weeks after the event. Just my thoughts.

Anything is possible. I was thinking that there might be a pivot to say that there was no point cancelling the sandbox because of local cases, on the basis that they weren’t caused by the sandbox.  So only positive tourist cases would count in the 90. Tbh, it’s not an invalid claim to make. Who cares about a few tourists if there is community spread of local cases? It’s the tourists that should be concerned about locals, not the other way round.

 

I just think decisions need to be taken with the local populace in mind. The tourists can like it or lump it along with the rest of us. Again, to be fair, cancelling the flights between Phuket and Bangkok, did just that. And it’s how it should be. Tourists get stranded, that’s the risk they took. The objective is to take decisions that protect everybody.

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

Are you saying the official Thailand stats of infection numbers (included in that list), is a credible source? Pretty sure you're one of the people complaining these numbers were not credible, and for good reason.

 

It's not about contradicting the CFR of that list, as CFR is an unreliable metric. What we care about is IFR.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7810031/

 

 

No I am not saying Thailand's death rate is accurate as you well know, its about those countries whose reporting is transparent and credible.

 

Regards your study, no government has implemented it so its its irrelevant to the reality of the stats published by each government.

 

The IFR is the number of deaths from a disease divided by the total number of cases. If 10 people die of the disease, and 500 actually have it, then the IFR is [10 / 500], or 2%.3,4,5,6,7

 

To work out the IFR, we need two numbers: the total number of cases and the total number of deaths. However the total number of cases of COVID-19 is not known. That’s partly because not everyone with COVID-19 is tested.

[mark131v]

14 hours ago, webfact said:

Thais in need of inoculation before travelling overseas.

Who would those be, would they be the very elderly or medically vulnerable? rhetorical question as we all know the answer... 

[jacob29]

28 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

No I am not saying Thailand's death rate is accurate as you well know, its about those countries whose reporting is transparent and credible.

 

Regards your study, no government has implemented it so its its irrelevant to the reality of the stats published by each government.

 

The IFR is the number of deaths from a disease divided by the total number of cases. If 10 people die of the disease, and 500 actually have it, then the IFR is [10 / 500], or 2%.3,4,5,6,7

 

To work out the IFR, we need two numbers: the total number of cases and the total number of deaths. However the total number of cases of COVID-19 is not known. That’s partly because not everyone with COVID-19 is tested.

What the government has implemented has no bearing on these statistics. That's why they're more reliable (though imperfect), as they're not contingent on the competencies of any government body.

 

We don't know the total number of cases, that's why these studies exist - to provide a best estimate, along with a confidence interval to express the level of uncertainty with the number. We have no idea how credible reporting is for most countries, Thai or otherwise. The official case numbers are close to useless, even if we assume no intentional manipulation at government levels. Italy had 10% CFR rates, and follow up antibody tests showed the actual number of cases was vastly higher, leaving the IFR somewhere in the ballpark of 1%. I don't believe they attempted to manipulate numbers, but regardless they were still way off.

[Danderman123]

5 hours ago, morrobay said:

See paper on dose response and that the initial quantity of virus exposure is related to the severity of disease if infected.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7686757/

I have suspected this for a long time. 

 

I also suspect that part of the reason why old people die more frequently from Covid is they don't move around so much, so when the virus hits them, they get a big amount of it. Particularly immobile patients in a nursing home.