7 minutes ago, Nong Khai Man said:

92 For ONE Day in '97 Also....

No.

4 hours ago, Harsh Jones said:

Thailand has a healthy trade surplus that isn't going anywhere soon. This article is probably bottom ticking the Baht. All up from here.

True to an extent, but the rising domestic debt and poor prospects for recovery in the shot term. Get the vax'ed level up and tourism should recover. When and how fast is the unknown. For the Pound people, the Thai Baht is more related to the US$ so look more at the US$ vs UK Pound relationship.  

15 hours ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

Tourists will have to pay inflated prices for everything as weakened baht will buy less on international markets. Just to transport coconuts to the resort the farmer will pay more for gasoline because Thailand imports oil. Tourists will need to pay for that, who else. Not to mention household private debts accumulated by Thais over the jobless period. So no, tourists won’t see their currency do better than 2 years ago.

I’m going to have a punt that economics is not your strong suit ! ???? 

15 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Local prices may rise by 2 % , whilst foreign currency has risen by 20 %

Foreign currency (at least EUR) has fallen in the last years, from 45 THB per EUR in December 2013 down to 38 THB today. With a sharp hike in 2015 when the ECB started their Quantitative Easing program. 

13 hours ago, AwwYesNice1 said:

Waiting for the baht to tank and then I'm buying back in.

But at what point? Heard the expression'catch a falling knife' ?

Probably biggest import presently is Covid vaccines but these are essential to bring infections under control. Weaker Baht will make imports more expensive  but should encourage tourism.

Apart from numerous retired expats like that the baht is declining in value, it actually also makes Thailand more interesting for tourists and export. Before the military took over, the exchange was up around 36 baht for the dollar, so the military did in way too well with the economy.

13 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

waiting for it to hit 100 to the pound like 97 .it was a glorious time in the bars

Best I got while sitting in the Honey Hotel "coffee chop" was only 96 but one old guy with us changed 5K of TCs....thats ...travellers cheques.. @ 100 Bt ...Walked away with half a Million..Read somewhere that it "peaked" at 106....but....mai K J..????

1 hour ago, Berkshire said:

The thread title makes it seem like doom and gloom, that Thailand is failing some how.  But a weaker baht is about the best thing that could happen to this country.

Thailand is a failing nation, on a dozen different levels. Just wait. We are headed toward Burundi status. This current economic disaster is mostly self made, and it will result in the utter destruction of the tourism industry, permanently. As well as countless other areas, withdrawal of foreign capital and investment and millions of broken families due to financial hardship. The dread is only beginning. The sabotage is nearly complete. 

2 minutes ago, khunPer said:

Apart from numerous retired expats like that the baht is declining in value, it actually also makes Thailand more interesting for tourists and export. Before the military took over, the exchange was up around 36 baht for the dollar, so the military did in way too well with the economy.

You could be right if the hotels don't smarten up and price their rates in USD and no one has the sense to increase their prices in tandem. And export don't need to pay more for their import of their raw materials and not passed the increase costs to customers. 

3 hours ago, Caldera said:

The weakening baht is about the only good news there is in Thailand these days. I wouldn't mind it getting even weaker still.

With 50000 infected per day you will certainly get what you wish for.

16 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

But still far too expensive. 

Agreed 40 baht/USD coming soon

10 minutes ago, gerrybpattaya said:

Agreed 40 baht/USD coming soon

It can happen when Thailand experienced hyper inflation like 50% price increases for few years. You think we in for hyper inflation? 

44 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I was referring to the comment about the "possibility" of the mentioned  US rate hike in 2023. I agree with the previously posted claim that the Fed cannot hike its rates without causing a huge stock market crash.

 

The Fed has to keep interest rates low, so that they can at least attempt to pay off the interest on their record huge and spiraling debt. Rate rises makes borrowing more expensive for businesses and so slows expansion as well - bad for markets. The tiny rate rises in 2017 had to be quickly reversed after the markets sagged - these small rises show how sensitive businesses can be to them.

 

Inflation in the US is now rising due to continued money-printing on this new epic scale - much of the "developed" world is following suit. I don't see this as a "temporary" thing.

How many times have we heard that explanation and prediction before. No inflation is rising because of bottlenecks in supplies and, in the USA, at least, shortages of labor. . Computer chips are just one example. Those bottlenecks will work  themmselves out out over the course of a year. 

13 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

It can happen when Thailand experienced hyper inflation like 50% price increases for few years. You think we in for hyper inflation? 

Actually, when the baht crashed against world currencies in 1998, inflation only reached about 8%,

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/THA/thailand/inflation-rate-cpi

I am grateful for what I have, live in the present, try not to be a negative bore and share as I can.

21 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

You could be right if the hotels don't smarten up and price their rates in USD and no one has the sense to increase their prices in tandem. And export don't need to pay more for their import of their raw materials and not passed the increase costs to customers. 

Look at local costs, i.e. labor costs etc. - and tourists spending is more than just accommodation - where consumer price index is a good indicator. Around index 98 in 2014, moving up from about index 92 in 2012, now it's just about 100. It's 2 point up, or 2.04 percent up, whilst the baht decrease in value from 36 baht for an USD to 32, was more than 11 percent less baht in their hand for US visitors, for some Europeans the currency exchange rate decrease was more than 16 percent less baht for their European money...????

Dropped 12.5pc against GBP since Jan but still not corrected  by the 29pc it gained against GBP after the 2016 Brexit debacle. Thanks Bozo!

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Actually, when the baht crashed against world currencies in 1998, inflation only reached about 8%,

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/THA/thailand/inflation-rate-cpi

Agree with you. 1997 financial crisis was due to the peg and the meagre foreign reserves. Much different situation now with the 'floating' Baht.

Let it drop more so firms can come and buy up corrupt thai debt 

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

No.

But YES It Deffo DID !!

40 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Thailand is a failing nation, on a dozen different levels. Just wait. We are headed toward Burundi status. This current economic disaster is mostly self made, and it will result in the utter destruction of the tourism industry, permanently. As well as countless other areas, withdrawal of foreign capital and investment and millions of broken families due to financial hardship. The dread is only beginning. The sabotage is nearly complete. 

Why exactly will the tourism industry be utterly destroyed? Have the beaches gone away? The scenery? The food? The cultural attractions?

Why won't tourists come back?

50 minutes ago, Rinrada said:

Best I got while sitting in the Honey Hotel "coffee chop" was only 96 but one old guy with us changed 5K of TCs....thats ...travellers cheques.. @ 100 Bt ...Walked away with half a Million..Read somewhere that it "peaked" at 106....but....mai K J..????

Nah Mate, It " Peaked " at 92.....That Was Yer Lot.....

how many of you will transfer a lot of money if it's going very low ?

I will transfer at least $100000 USD that I do not want to be stolen by my western government to pay for all the covid tests and treatments made for the idiots who were too stupid to protect themselves !

 

16 hours ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

Tourists will have to pay inflated prices for everything as weakened baht will buy less on international markets. Just to transport coconuts to the resort the farmer will pay more for gasoline because Thailand imports oil. Tourists will need to pay for that, who else. Not to mention household private debts accumulated by Thais over the jobless period. So no, tourists won’t see their currency do better than 2 years ago.

2 years ago i was lucky to get 33 to the euro even went down to 31 now on TW im getting just under 39 ?????

19 minutes ago, khunPer said:

Look at local costs, i.e. labor costs etc. - and tourists spending is more than just accommodation - where consumer price index is a good indicator. Around index 98 in 2014, moving up from about index 92 in 2012, now it's just about 100. It's 2 point up, or 2.04 percent up, whilst the baht decrease in value from 36 baht for an USD to 32, was more than 11 percent less baht in their hand for US visitors, for some Europeans the currency exchange rate decrease was more than 16 percent less baht for their European money...????

Consumer price index is a reflection of changes in cost of an average consumer purchase of a basket of goods and services. Not sure this can be used as a direct indicator for tourist spending. Just my opinion and not discounting that you may be right. 

If the Baht falls this is good for Tourists in the longer term - prices are cheaper & tourists come back to Thailand from Europe, Aus or UK or Canada etc. Property becomes cheaper too for foreigners to buy. Over the last decade we see less Europeans as Thailand became more expensive next to other destinations  whether in Asia, southern Europe like welcoming Greece, Portugal etc  , Latin Americas and has become  less inviting in some ways. Thailand's exports too become more competitive as Baht drops.

 

Thailand however remains a very unequal society which needs more welfare and better tax sysyems to help all. Moreover it has to improve its education sysyem & new  technologies to compete with the rest of Asia. Our socities are fast becoming 'knowledge' societies based on IT and knowledge based industries. Without that change for the better is difficult. And no I am not saying Thailand forgoes its agriculture just that it needs to diversify more. 

7 minutes ago, scoupeo said:

how many of you will transfer a lot of money if it's going very low ?

I will transfer at least $100000 USD that I do not want to be stolen by my western government to pay for all the covid tests and treatments made for the idiots who were too stupid to protect themselves !

 

been thinking about it but don't trust Thai banks of the government  same to be said about my European banks 

Alanis Morissette would call this ironic [lol] but a coincidence that when I first came here in 1989 it was 40Baht/GBP and currently it's 40Baht/GBP. Mind you, when I moved here in 2007 it was nearly 70Baht/GDP.

 

However, the move was based on my previous experience. What goes around comes around.

 

I do recall when I opened my first bank account with SCB they were reluctant to open it, and even then I had to persuade them to accept any significant GBP transfers. As were Bangkok Bank when I set up an account with them. Foreign currency transfers were limited to 5000GBP.

LOL year after year, every time there is an article about Baht weakness (temporary), there are always doomsayers stating this is it, this is the end of Thailand. Thailand is a failed state????

 

Weak Baht is what Thailand actually wants. They have been wanting it for years. In the past when Thailand tried to artificially decrease the Baht value, US labeled Thailand as currency manipulator. However look at what US has been doing ????

 

I do hope Baht becomes even weaker and stay there. That would be really good for country's economy in a long term. But I seriously doubt that would be the case.