SURVEY: How high will this Covid wave go?

[Scott]

With Covid cases rising to the low 20,000s a day, how high do you think numbers will go before it plateaus and starts to decline?

 

Please feel free to leave a comment and explanation of your prediction.

[nowhereman]

Official number 35000 a day, as cases just starting to pop up in the other provinces. Real number will be 3 times higher due to lack of testing,  asymptomatic and mild cases.  

[Gottfrid]

Actually, I ticked around 30k cases. Only random choice, with a strong hope they can deal with it until then.

[Gottfrid]

12 minutes ago, nowhereman said:

Official number 35000 a day, as cases just starting to pop up in the other provinces. Real number will be 3 times higher due to lack of testing,  asymptomatic and mild cases.  

And you do not think that all provinces report? We are talking about laboratory confirmed cases like in any other country.

[Ralf001]

I reckon we se will 60K+ within 2 months, based up a 2% per day gain.

 

The only way to reel the numbers in is to revert back to testing protocols of mid 2020.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Ralf001

[nowhereman]

20 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

And you do not think that all provinces report? We are talking about laboratory confirmed cases like in any other country.

Your statement "Like in any other country." caught my eye and made it quite sore. Here is the graph from Our World in Data. Comparison between UK and Thailand and if you have a good look you'll see that since July 10th Thailand is not reporting the number of tests. Did I miss the topic again?

Edited August 8, 2021 by nowhereman

[mtls2005]

Other than shelter-in-place what is there to slow the progression?

 

Some CCSA officials did mention the 40,000 figure, so it's not a total surprise.

 

The deaths should be easier to forecast; they've got a lot of people classified as serious, and a large portion of those on ventilators.

 

 

 

 

[dinsdale]

It's more than likely 70k+ now being that testing is either hospital presentation or reactive testing to clusters. Numbers must be massively under-reported.

[RotBenz8888]

Didn't almost evey country have upps and downs before the vaccine? Even Sweden, with very few restrictions, came down significantly last summer. Hopefully Thailand will reach a period with easing, the vaccine impact will take a while.... 

[Rampant Rabbit]

Enough for Thai  Visa ASEAN  NOW to  milk it everyday?

[PFMills]

These surveys of yours are useful but couldn’t you offer a prize

for who  guesses closest to the actual number and/which date.

 

Make the winner the proud owner of say an aseannow T-Shirt or something of equal value.

 

Lets make this more interesting.    there must be someone who can work an Excel spread sheet.

 

And yes I have voted

 

 

[internationalism]

according to a mathematical simulation done a week ago, the pick would be 14-29.9 with up to 45k positives and 400-500 deaths daily.

I suspect, that simulation run today would show October and figures 20% higher.

 

[RubbaJohnny]

The survey is skewed as there is an upper bound of 50k, Nobody can predict the upper limit it is not even 100% of the entire population as there are many examples of people even vaccinated being reinfected in other countries. I sadly expect millions of cases and possibly 100k fatalities before restrictions end and like the common cold and influenza this corona virus may be around for all of our lifetimes.

 

Even in democratic states with thorough undoctored statistics , mass testing no one can predict exactly as the virus mutations will determne its ablity to reproduce..

 

I am sure the author is well meaning and just hoping to gauge opinion, However if he c could merely add more than 50k as a choice we would have a more meaningful picture of sentiment .

Such skewed surveys are part of the misinformation rife at present. At present it would be absolutely accurate for some Thai hack to report something like

"only  a score  of aseannow respondants saw figures of 40k likley and none higher etc"

 

After a few mangled mistranslations this becomes few foresee more problems ahead, all will be fine,the government is super and there'll be jam tomorrow, the stuff of misrepresentation since Goebbels.

 

Or at the moment of posting , with 94% of the population unvaxxed it is almost impossible to predict might be more helpful.

 

My vade mecum Huff's classic textbook

"how to lie with statistics"

is now freely available as a downloadable pdf, a sobering read.

 

https://www.horace.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/How-to-Lie-With-Statistics-1954-Huff.pdf

 

A brief amusing take on how presentation works from BBC comedy Yes Minister

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA

Edited August 8, 2021 by RubbaJohnny

[Capella]

Infections aren't the most important thing here - of much more concern are hospitalisations and deaths. That said, I'm thinking 25,000 infections per day tops:

 

On the negative side:

1) Thais often live in large families and/or in close proximity to others, and

2) The Delta strain seems to spread more quickly that others

 

On the positive side:

1) Thais don't shake hands or hug like we do in the west, and

2) Thailand's population is not as large as countries with lots more infections, like the US, India, etc, and

3) Vaccination, while off to a slow start, will pick up before too long, with most vulnerable people having received at least one dose now, unlike countries where the virus was being transmitted before the vaccine was available

 

I'm optimitstic that things will soon improve.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Capella

[RubbaJohnny]

27 minutes ago, Capella said:

Infections aren't the most important thing here - of much more concern are hospitalisations and deaths. That said, I'm thinking 25,000 infections per day tops:

 

On the negative side:

1) Thais often live in large families and/or in close proximity to others, and

2) The Delta strain seems to spread more quickly that others

 

On the positive side:

1) Thais don't shake hands or hug like we do in the west, and

2) Thailand's population is not as large as countries with lots more infections, like the US, India, etc, and

3) Vaccination, while off to a slow start, will pick up before too long, with most vulnerable people having received at least one dose now, unlike countries where the virus was being transmitted before the vaccine was available

 

I'm optimitstic that things will soon improve.

Good points I hope you are correct, optimism is good.prepare for the worst  hope fr the best.

[Gottfrid]

5 hours ago, nowhereman said:

Did I miss the topic again?

No, but you missed the information you quoted. I wrote that they register all laboratory confirmed tests like any other country. Not how many test they make.

[shackleton]

Well going on the predictions of  Corivirus   numbers increasing 

Thailand  can forget any Tourists arriving in numbers for this year

maybe after more vaccinations of the population  middle of  2022

 

[daveAustin]

Didn’t participate since those numbers are meaningless and no option for ‘already surpassed official figures’. 

[RichardColeman]

40-50k easily. It's more infections than that now, they just are not testing as much as other countries. If they were testing say same as UK, they would be 75k plus already

[Lucky dog]

I agree. The numbers are very much higher. Without accurate reporting very hard to tell. Vaccines are so slow I think we are looking at natural herd amenity. When the numbers start dropping significantly we will know herd imunity has started. I think to little to late and with sinovac the Vaccines won't beat natural herd imunity.

[Uroller]

How long is a piece of string????

[Uroller]

7 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

And you do not think that all provinces report? We are talking about laboratory confirmed cases like in any other country.

Would you mind posting your supporting documents confirming that ALL cases are being reported!

Much appreciated

[Ralf001]

4 hours ago, Capella said:

That said, I'm thinking 25,000 infections per day tops:

 

.

I doubt the government will report to more than that... we all know the actual numbers to be much much higher.

[Ralf001]

1 hour ago, Gottfrid said:

No, but you missed the information you quoted. I wrote that they register all laboratory confirmed tests like any other country. Not how many test they make.

And what about the non lab confirmed... these new DIY antigen test kits are showing up many.

12 at my work on Friday, they wont make the "official" stats.

[Isaan sailor]

They say, the trend is your friend.  So 30k per day will come soon enough.  After that, maybe a plateau.

Too bad Thailand doesn't have enough effective vaccines. That’s the biggest reason we’re in this predicament. 

I believe Covid came through here last year, but they didn’t test enough—for whatever reason.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Isaan sailor

[DaveSamutP]

I choose 30k. However, I think the official numbers will "peak" at the level of tests they can confirm in a day. 

 

They obviously cannot test enough. There are very likely already 30k or more per day. 

[MrJ2U]

9 hours ago, nowhereman said:

Official number 35000 a day, as cases just starting to pop up in the other provinces. Real number will be 3 times higher due to lack of testing,  asymptomatic and mild cases.  

Once the Sinovac vaccines start waning its going to be really bad.

 

[MrJ2U]

1 hour ago, Uroller said:

Would you mind posting your supporting documents confirming that ALL cases are being reported!

Much appreciated

All cases aren't being reported.

[thurien]

it is not simply a matter of them free- flying figures going up, it is a matter of how the Khaki Man will remind the figures to go down as he anticipated 2 weeks ago:

 

 

[Gottfrid]

1 hour ago, Uroller said:

Would you mind posting your supporting documents confirming that ALL cases are being reported!

Much appreciated

What? Why? Do you have something supporting the opposite?

The supporting document that shows all registered laboratory confirmed cases are official and publicized daily. One place you can find the daily cases are by reading on Thai Visa as an example.

Now you can show me the documents supporting those numbers are false.