Is gold a good or bad investment - 10 year plan

[nomad2019]

A friend has just bought some gold he has advised me to put some money into gold bullion,.      I want to ask any experts on here is it a wise investment I'm looking at a 10-year plan,.   Cash it in in 10-years I've had a look at the charts over the last 20-years and gold has went up up,. do you think it will keep going up up ,.  What impact will the virus have, set coronavirus will be here to stay for the next number of years it will not go away anytime soon and I'm sure that will have a knock on effect with housing crisis banking crisis , could  we see an economic crash.     I've been recommended a site in the UK called bullion by post

thanks in advance for any help information

[nomad2019]

By the way if I did decide to buy some bullion what is best gold coins or gold bars, 1 oz or half ounce or bigger bars.

 

[HashBrownHarry]

Just buy gold blocks, i believe 5 / 10 /20 / and 50 baht weights are available. Don't buy necklaces etc coz you pay for the workmanship.

 

I had a fair bit of gold but sold it all when Brexit happened and made a few quid, i guess people were hedging their bets.

 

Here's and example, in 1999 i recall buying a 3 baht weight chain for the wife at 18-20K baht price, the same chain now would be closer to 70K.

 

 

[david555]

9 minutes ago, HashBrownHarry said:

Just buy gold blocks, i believe 5 / 10 /20 / and 50 baht weights are available. Don't buy necklaces etc coz you pay for the workmanship.

 

I had a fair bit of gold but sold it all when Brexit happened and made a few quid, i guess people were hedging their bets.

 

Here's and example, in 1999 i recall buying a 3 baht weight chain for the wife at 18-20K baht price, the same chain now would be closer to 70K.

 

 

i guess OP is talking about western gold , as oz and coins are in the 999 range.

Ausiris shops also sell those on order 

Ausiris Gold: Easy to buy, real gold, wherever you are, you can buy it.

Edited August 11, 2021 by david555

[EricTh]

Which company in Thailand is most reputable for buying and selling gold bars? I think not everybody buy back gold bars from other companies with a good price.

[Airalee]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/10/31/investing-vs-speculating-why-knowing-the-difference-is-key/?sh=40d80eb938b1

[HashBrownHarry]

4 minutes ago, EricTh said:

Which company in Thailand is most reputable for buying and selling gold bars? I think not everybody buy back gold bars from other companies with a good price.

The one i used was in Big C, sure it starts with an A but the name escapes me.

 

For the bigger bars you'll need to order.

 

Best place is China town in BKK but depending on where you live it could be a trek. 

 

Most shops will buy each others gold.

[david555]

4 minutes ago, EricTh said:

Which company in Thailand is most reputable for buying and selling gold bars? I think not everybody buy back gold bars from other companies with a good price.

If they are internationally recognised , 

 

Just now, HashBrownHarry said:

The one i used was in Big C, sure it starts with an A but the name escapes me.

 

For the bigger bars you'll need to order.

 

Best place is China town in BKK but depending on where you live it could be a trek. 

 

Most shops will buy each others gold.

Ausiris Gold: Easy to buy, real gold, wherever you are, you can buy it.

[HashBrownHarry]

Just now, david555 said:

If they are internationally recognised , 

 

Ausiris Gold: Easy to buy, real gold, wherever you are, you can buy it.

That's the fellow, Ausiris

[Airalee]

1 minute ago, david555 said:

If they are internationally recognised , 

The strange thing about Thailand is that the majority of gold trading is done with Thai gold (.9625).  Trying to sell internationally recognized bullion (Pamp, Credit Suisse, Valcambi, Maple Leafs etc etc) is extremely hard and most shops will offer 20% less than spot.  That was my experience when trying to sell.  The only shop/dealer I could find in Bangkok that would deal with .999 was Huasengheng and they would only deal in kilo or larger quantities.  Ausirus (the mall shops) wouldn’t even make an offer.

[david555]

2 minutes ago, Airalee said:

The strange thing about Thailand is that the majority of gold trading is done with Thai gold (.9625).  Trying to sell internationally recognized bullion (Pamp, Credit Suisse, Valcambi, Maple Leafs etc etc) is extremely hard and most shops will offer 20% less than spot.  That was my experience when trying to sell.  The only shop/dealer I could find in Bangkok that would deal with .999 was Huasengheng and they would only deal in kilo or larger quantities.  Ausirus (the mall shops) wouldn’t even make an offer.

I only referred where you can buy/order western gold 999 ,

 

no reference for selling to as they buy/sell almost only Thai version , but same problem to sell Thai 96% gold in western gold dealing shops ...., they rip you a half kidney of under pretext of refining costs ???? 

[JackGats]

That's why gold is a problematic investment. How and where can you sell it and get a fair price? Can you sell it free of tax? Where do you keep (bury) it?

[david555]

Just now, JackGats said:

That's why gold is a problematic investment. How and where can you sell it and get a fair price? Can you sell it free of tax? Where do you keep (bury) it?

But ...they can't print gold ....as they just print money bills at wish ,

 

monetary gold is tax free unless you are a professionally jewel maker , as then the tax added value comes on top !

[Airalee]

19 minutes ago, david555 said:

I only referred where you can buy/order western gold 999 ,

 

no reference for selling to as they buy/sell almost only Thai version , but same problem to sell Thai 96% gold in western gold dealing shops ...., they rip you a half kidney of under pretext of refining costs ???? 

Understood that you were referring to buy/order…I just wanted to expand on it and share my personal experience.  I’m sure you’re right regarding western gold dealers purchasing Thai gold too.  I’d bet you’d be offered whatever the scrap price is.   I learned my lesson and now go with the “when in Rome…” strategy.  

[david555]

24 minutes ago, JackGats said:

That's why gold is a problematic investment. How and where can you sell it and get a fair price? Can you sell it free of tax? Where do you keep (bury) it?

Just an example from a well trusted Gold Company in Amsterdam and even at the Schiphol airport , having even a storage ....( but gold you keep under your own hands i find )

 

Selling example page AmsterdamGold | Inkoop goud (inkoopamsterdamgold.com)  just choose English if Dutch language should open  right corner up on page 

Edited August 11, 2021 by david555

[david555]

Just now, Airalee said:

Understood that you were referring to buy/order…I just wanted to expand on it and share my personal experience.  I’m sure you’re right regarding western gold dealers purchasing Thai gold too.  I’d bet you’d be offered whatever the scrap price is.   I learned my lesson and now go with the “when in Rome…” strategy.  

If no plans to move out of Thailand forever , than dealing with Thai gold baht is the simplest to do and quit fair prices ????????

Remember that taking your gold with you on a flight is limited sure by arrival western customs , (terrible ones at Shiphol  The Netherlands ????)

[1FinickyOne]

Gold is one of many many possible investments,,, why don't you compare it to other investments,... look up charts for S&P 500 etc and you also can diversify,,, buy some of a few different investments. 

[HeijoshinCool]

36 minutes ago, JackGats said:

That's why gold is a problematic investment. How and where can you sell it and get a fair price? Can you sell it free of tax? Where do you keep (bury) it?

.

 

There is a rose bush in my backyard. 20 feet north, and 10 feet west of it is where I buried my 1000 ounces.

[Kinnock]

1 hour ago, HashBrownHarry said:

The one i used was in Big C, sure it starts with an A but the name escapes me.

 

For the bigger bars you'll need to order.

 

Best place is China town in BKK but depending on where you live it could be a trek. 

 

Most shops will buy each others gold.

Aurora

 

OK if you are happy with Thai gold.  Easy to sell in Thailand, may not get a good rate outside of Thailand 

[HashBrownHarry]

13 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Aurora

 

OK if you are happy with Thai gold.  Easy to sell in Thailand, may not get a good rate outside of Thailand 

Aurora, that's the fellow.

 

Yes agreed, it's just like currency in Thailand but not easy to sell overseas.

[Tanomazu]

When people see a strong uptrend they tend to think that it will last forever. They never do.

 

If you looked at the charts you will have seen that gold fell considerably a few days ago, down from over 2000 to 1636.

 

That's not to say that gold may not go up now substantially, it probably will, but in 10 years nobody knows where gold may be. It could easily fall considerably as well.

 

Having said that it is still a good investment at this point in time.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Tanomazu

[david555]

Just now, Tanomazu said:

When people see a strong uptrend they tend to think that it will last forever. They never do.

 

If you looked at the charts you will have seen that gold fell considerably a few days ago, down from over 2000 to 1636.

 

That's not to say that gold may not go up now substantially, it probably will, but in 10 years nobody knows where gold may be. It could easily fall considerably as well.

 

Having said that it is still a good investment at this point in time.

At long term in history  Gold has the line upwards ...., but with some short dips in it , but never went considerable down , not so long ago it was around 31000 € for a kilo , it shall never come back to that , today around the 47969 €  a kilo  

 

But do not expect gains (or losses ) as with that bitcoin hype , gold is more a "insurance" investment than a short time investment.

[Tanomazu]

20 minutes ago, david555 said:

At long term in history  Gold has the line upwards ...., but with some short dips in it , but never went considerable down , not so long ago it was around 31000 € for a kilo , it shall never come back to that , today around the 47969 €  a kilo  

 

But do not expect gains (or losses ) as with that bitcoin hype , gold is more a "insurance" investment than a short time investment.

Gold saw a long sideways dip in the 1980s and 1990s.

 

Over a very long period, yes gold holds value very well. You just can't discount these long dips will happen in 10 years, nobody knows what will happen then.

 

The reason why it is a good hedge against inflation, which looks on the cards now, is here:

 

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/is-gold-really-an-inflation-hedge-202106111654

 

Gold btw, has seen a spectacular rise in value since the 1980s.

[AlexRich]

I don’t think it’s a terrible investment, although it’s been on an upward trend for many years in the period before that it was fairly dismal, so perhaps 10 years isn’t a long enough time period to judge it. Gordon Brown sold off a large chunk of the UK’s Gold reserves just before the recent climb, and he’s supposed to be economically literate. 5% of your net worth is fine, but I wouldn’t sell the farm and sink the proceeds into gold. It’s okay as part of a wider portfolio.

[Kwasaki]

10 hours ago, nomad2019 said:

I'm looking at a 10-year plan,.   Cash it in in 10-years I've had a look at the charts.

I'm no expert but if you bought gold 10 years ago a good investment if you sold it now. 

[pacovl46]

Take a chart of the gold course from the very beginning they started recording it and connect only the low points with a line and you’ll find that the curve slowly, bit by bit goes upwards. 
 

In my opinion it is a good investment depending on how much time you have and whether when you want to profit from it. For example, if you don’t need the money and you have children it will definitely be a good investment for them.

[fabruer]

Gold is not an investment. It's a way to preserve value. It also has a place in a portfolio though, as a hedge against certain tendencies. A previous poster mentioned 5% of net value. That sounds reasonable. Depending on situation that could even be up to 10% imho. 

 

Besides bullion you could also buy "paper" gold or gold etfs. You will get higher liquidity (= easier to buy/sell).

Edited August 12, 2021 by fabruer

[oznomad]

The plan varies upon your location.

You being in London means you dont have to worry about Thailand's 965 purity.

To be VAT free it has to be greater than 995, which investment bars usually are.

BUT, you will still have Capital Gains Tax. ????

Another option is to buy in Singapore. No VAT. No taxes of any description.

Bullionstar Singapore
 

Dont think in terms of a 10 year timeframe.

Think in terms of the market.

If gold has hit a peak of USD $8000 in 3 years, you dont want to ride it back down for the next 7 years.

 

What to buy?

The smaller the bar, the higher the premium (the difference between the spot price that you see on the news, and the real price that you pay). 

Smaller bars (give coins a miss) are easier to sell if you are holding your gold yourself. If using, as the example Bullionstar, then selling is just a few mouse clicks.

Lets say you were buying 1 kilo. A rainy day comes along, and you need just a walletful of cash. You dont want to sell your 1 kilo bar. Better to split your purchase up.

 

When to buy.

Trying to pick the bottom of the market is beyond the capability of 99.99999% of us.

Better to make your move now. You could 'dollar cost average', and buy 25% of your spend each week, or month.

Again, this may depend on how you buy and where you are putting it. If getting delivered to your home, the post and insurance cost may negate any potential advantage of dollar cost averaging.

 

As you are seeing, so much 'depends' on your plans and desires.

Either way, you are on the right track. Just dont contemplate for too long, or it will probably cost you more.

 

[allanos]

Speaking from my own experience, since April, 2017 my gold has given me a 38% return.

But it is a volatile investment. Today's price is around $1755.00. Last year, it hit a high of $ 2075.00.

If US inflation takes hold, which analysts expect, gold should start going higher again, as a hedge against inflation and depreciating dollar purchasing power.

 

Since 2019, my bitcoin has increased 3x. It is a much more volatile investment than gold, but shows commensurate higher returns over time. On average, 200% pa compounding, since introduction in 2009.

 

For those outside of Thailand, good gold coins to hold are the American Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf, and the South African Kruger Rand. I would recommend the one-ounce coins, not the smaller sizes.

 

For relative ease of holding, ETF's are worth looking at, but they carry unique risks also. It's all in the fine print!

 

For a good layman's immersion into the intricacies of  gold, I would recommend reading, "Why Gold, Why Now?", a recently-published book by E.B. Tucker. It is relatively light reading, with a lot of useful information inside, and can be used as a worthwhile guide to investing.

 

EB is a director at Metalla Royalties. Perhaps naturally, investing in a royalty product is his preferred route to wealth. However, he makes a compelling case for doing so.

[CHdiver]

You could use https://www.goldavenue.com/ It's the shop of PAMP one of the big refiners. They store your gold for free in Switzerland and you could sell it back to them with a very small spread. 

 

Imho, you would be better off with putting your money into an world etf. I have some gold coins, but I would just use them in a emergency like a zombie apocalypse ...