Expat hopes dashed - Brit retirees have to tighten purse strings again after baht strengthens

[bert bloggs]

1 hour ago, jacko45k said:

Some of us older guys may have considered 50/baht to the pound, which back then was quite conservative, as well as 5% interest on savings. Oh dear....

I can remember 90 baht to the pound for a time oh happy days,and when we came back to live in Thailand full time it was 71 to the pound ,and 6% interest rates happy happy days

[MyFriend You]

20 hours ago, DefaultName said:

I based my retirement on ฿40 / £.  Anything over that is gravy.

Same here, having lived thru the 19/22 baht per $$, anything over 25 is good for me............last January I predicted the Baht would go to 40 baht per $$. @ 33 now not far to go hey??

[Sudarut]

On 9/2/2021 at 2:19 PM, Scrotobike said:

Currency manipulation by the HiSo cartel

Bloomberg: USD/THB drops 300 pips overnight.

Speculator 1: Non Farm Payroll? 

Speculator2: No, Thai HiSo.

[Rookiescot]

On 9/2/2021 at 3:01 PM, Mr Meeseeks said:

There's only so much the UK economy can grow with influxes of foreign refugees that get clothed, fed and housed at the taxpayers' expense. Thousands more rocking up in dinghies daily and more to come from Afghanistan. 

 

All fine and well being philanthropic but simply not sustainable. 

Cant be that.

We have taken back control.

[GinBoy2]

I just looked at the chart of GBP/THB. It's 46.5 to 45.06 over the month.

 

What's that less than 2% swing?

 

If thats enough to fling some poor expat into abject poverty, maybe they should reassess the financial planning that led them to Thailand in the first place!

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, TunnelRat69 said:

Same here, having lived thru the 19/22 baht per $$, anything over 25 is good for me............last January I predicted the Baht would go to 40 baht per $$. @ 33 now not far to go hey??

A great thing about a prediction with no date attached to it means it can never be disproven. Keep up the good work.

[Scrotobike]

20 hours ago, Albert Zweistein said:

Seems to be a currency in SE Asia.

Maybe Chinese Bats?

[nauseus]

12 hours ago, bert bloggs said:

I can remember 90 baht to the pound for a time oh happy days,and when we came back to live in Thailand full time it was 71 to the pound ,and 6% interest rates happy happy days

Yes but a very short time - a veritable forex knee-trembler - available for just one lovely day. 

[3NUMBAS]

millions of brits live a  hand to mouth existance and save nothing for old age ..there are places they live where everyone is skint on the south coast ..the whole town is without a pot to pi55  in

[Albert Zweistein]

4 hours ago, Scrotobike said:

Maybe Chinese Bats?

Possible, only to be exchanged in TL.

[rott]

13 hours ago, Sticky Rice Balls said:

My Ex would agree with you wholeheartedly..... ????

The traditional British traits of modesty, self effacement and understatement not to say irony no longer seem to be recognised by the under-educated masses. 

So sadly your post is likely to be widely misunderstood. 

[riclag]

As soon as the covid numbers started dropping the BHT went with it

[placeholder]

16 minutes ago, riclag said:

As soon as the covid numbers started dropping the BHT went with it

Actually, the baht has been on an upward trend since the covid numbers started to drop.

[Stygge]

Most democratic countires tries to keep their currency low to boost export and keep import down. The traditional tool for this has been the interest rate. Since virtually no inflation exist today they struggle. Bond buying just doesn´t cut it.

No organization or state can manipulate the currency forever. Over time fundamentals will value the currency.

 

So how do you do it if you want a high currency rate?
The problem is if the country is well run, low debts, good export etc, the population gets richer and demands higher wages, they start bying imported goods etc. The currency then depreciate.
 

So you need a more authoritarian governement. You impose a minimum wage so low people willl struggle to survive the month and don´t have time or energy to protest. You see to it that the minimum wage becomes the norm on all unschooled labor. That will also set the norm for all wages which will compare to the minimum wages. Now you invite international companies to set up plants and it will give huge profits because of the low wages. A part of that profit will land in the pockets the ruling elite as, hmm, let´s call it a commission.

It´s important to have a school system that just teach the kids the bare essentials, learning things by heart, and emphasis obedience and submission to the country and it´s rulers. That ensures cheap labor to the factories.

Higher education should be a matter for the children of the elite,

Also see that your country has a great pull factor on tourism, so much that the tourists are willing to come even with a high currency. Since low wages ensures all services will still be reasonable cheap for tourists.

 

Abra kadabra. You have a long time strong currency and still a healthy export. The elite can consume cheap imports and good exchange rate at their foreign bank accounts.

 

[The Cipher]

Quote

Most democratic countires tries to keep their currency low to boost export and keep import down. Since virtually no inflation exist today they struggle.

Boy is this guy in for a shock.

[bkk_bwana]

Anyone that chooses to retire in a foreign country and play 'cost of living arbitrage' on a small budget, with limited funds is at the mercy of the foreign exchange markets.

[rott]

52 minutes ago, Sticky Rice Balls said:

My work continues..You can please some of them some of the time, but you will never please all of them all of the time ????

I get quite poetic when I'm <deleted>. 

[Neeranam]

It cyclical, take the good with the bad. I suggest to the moaners, adjust your attitude.

It was 37 baht to the pound when I came here, Oct, 1992. 

[superal]

4 hours ago, Stygge said:

Most democratic countires tries to keep their currency low to boost export and keep import down. The traditional tool for this has been the interest rate. Since virtually no inflation exist today they struggle. Bond buying just doesn´t cut it.

No organization or state can manipulate the currency forever. Over time fundamentals will value the currency.

 

So how do you do it if you want a high currency rate?
The problem is if the country is well run, low debts, good export etc, the population gets richer and demands higher wages, they start bying imported goods etc. The currency then depreciate.
 

So you need a more authoritarian governement. You impose a minimum wage so low people willl struggle to survive the month and don´t have time or energy to protest. You see to it that the minimum wage becomes the norm on all unschooled labor. That will also set the norm for all wages which will compare to the minimum wages. Now you invite international companies to set up plants and it will give huge profits because of the low wages. A part of that profit will land in the pockets the ruling elite as, hmm, let´s call it a commission.

It´s important to have a school system that just teach the kids the bare essentials, learning things by heart, and emphasis obedience and submission to the country and it´s rulers. That ensures cheap labor to the factories.

Higher education should be a matter for the children of the elite,

Also see that your country has a great pull factor on tourism, so much that the tourists are willing to come even with a high currency. Since low wages ensures all services will still be reasonable cheap for tourists.

 

Abra kadabra. You have a long time strong currency and still a healthy export. The elite can consume cheap imports and good exchange rate at their foreign bank accounts.

 

Agree and that's the way many free democratic countries work but you are forgetting that Thailand is not a democracy and for that reason it is under the watch list of some western countries with human rights among some of the issues . Why should free countries give trade to uncivilized countries ? You may be aware that consumers are looking at the source of many imported products where some countries have such cheap labour it is bordering on slavery . Some of these products end up with expensive price tags in upmarket shops but these retailers are now being exposed by the media and are now dropping the cheap slave labour manufacturers in favour of companies who pay a fair wage .   Competitive trading can be achieved by improved production techniques or by a country with lower standards of living ( at a reasonable level ) .       The far eastern cheap manufacturing is coming to an end because of an unlevel playing field and lower quality of products as opposed to some western countries    ( German engineering as an example ) .The rise and rise of China has slowed and will continue to do so .      Back to the baht and as things stand there is only one way that the baht is going in the medium to long term , unless there is political change .    In my opinion .

[placeholder]

5 hours ago, Stygge said:

Most democratic countires tries to keep their currency low to boost export and keep import down. The traditional tool for this has been the interest rate. Since virtually no inflation exist today they struggle. Bond buying just doesn´t cut it.

No organization or state can manipulate the currency forever. Over time fundamentals will value the currency.

 

So how do you do it if you want a high currency rate?
The problem is if the country is well run, low debts, good export etc, the population gets richer and demands higher wages, they start bying imported goods etc. The currency then depreciate.
 

So you need a more authoritarian governement. You impose a minimum wage so low people willl struggle to survive the month and don´t have time or energy to protest. You see to it that the minimum wage becomes the norm on all unschooled labor. That will also set the norm for all wages which will compare to the minimum wages. Now you invite international companies to set up plants and it will give huge profits because of the low wages. A part of that profit will land in the pockets the ruling elite as, hmm, let´s call it a commission.

It´s important to have a school system that just teach the kids the bare essentials, learning things by heart, and emphasis obedience and submission to the country and it´s rulers. That ensures cheap labor to the factories.

Higher education should be a matter for the children of the elite,

Also see that your country has a great pull factor on tourism, so much that the tourists are willing to come even with a high currency. Since low wages ensures all services will still be reasonable cheap for tourists.

 

Abra kadabra. You have a long time strong currency and still a healthy export. The elite can consume cheap imports and good exchange rate at their foreign bank accounts.

 

The minimum wage is a floor, not a ceiling. Workers aren't allowed to be paid less. It doesn't prohibit workers from being paid more. It is abviously a restriction on a free market system.. And a good thing, too. Given how much wealth is in the hand of the elite in Thailand, the extraordinary level of income inequality, it's clear that the minimum wage should be raised. But that's another issue. 

[jwest10]

On 9/2/2021 at 2:01 PM, worgeordie said:

44.70 for sterling just now , slowly creeping back up......to fall again,

regards worgeordie

Not that the pound is strong but the baht weak but afraid the currency manipulators all around the world giving them huge profits, so nothing new there then and those of us on Frozen State pensions suffer from many sources.

[jwest10]

On 9/3/2021 at 1:32 PM, Harveyboy said:

work us till we drop then pay us peanuts ..not even enough peanuts to live on. UK keep it its finished..keep your illegals ill keep doing my 90 report 

While we can!!!

[jwest10]

15 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

millions of brits live a  hand to mouth existance and save nothing for old age ..there are places they live where everyone is skint on the south coast ..the whole town is without a pot to pi55  in

Everywhere too in the world!!!

[DefaultName]

On 9/4/2021 at 2:54 AM, it is what it is said:

 

correct, i dont know anyone who hasn't made additional financial arrangements for their post work life, it's a no brainer.

In the UK, there is an attitude among some social groups of not saving or paying into pensions for retirement.  The issue is that access to State benefits is restricted if you have savings or income, so they enjoy their money now, knowing that the State will keep them later.  You and I see this as wrong, they don't. 

 

Some able-bodied people retiring now have never worked.  I have an opinion on that one too.  ????

[Stygge]

15 hours ago, placeholder said:

The minimum wage is a floor, not a ceiling. Workers aren't allowed to be paid less. It doesn't prohibit workers from being paid more. It is abviously a restriction on a free market system.. And a good thing, too. Given how much wealth is in the hand of the elite in Thailand, the extraordinary level of income inequality, it's clear that the minimum wage should be raised. But that's another issue. 

As I wrote, the minimum wage is the very low bottom the other wages align to. It set the standard for other wages, so the general income level can be kept low for normal working people. It also effect jobs with higher education. Fresh out of university starting wages often are not higher then 18-20 000 baht/month and no steep increase after that in many professions.
The point is - if the governement is authoritaran enough it can impose low wages. Without any social security or functioning workers unions you take the job or starve. Low income level and no possibility to demand higher wages in line with companies increasing profits that high increasing profit will result in a highly valued currency and a strong export. Can´t be done in a democratic society with functioning trade unions. There the people would want to share the profit claiming higher wages and thus the population would prosper but the currency stays medium low.

[Percy P]

On 9/2/2021 at 1:54 PM, ourmanflint said:

All makes sense. Thailand is obviously doing much better than the UK financially even in the midst of a pandemic which has dropped revenues 80-90%

But the Pound has strengthened since UK departed from the EUROPEAN Union .prior to that the Pound was between 36-38B/£ today 45.25B/£

[itsari]

On 9/2/2021 at 2:15 PM, ThailandRyan said:

To be honest, it is due to a rise in speculators thinking the economy will soon turn and tourism will be booming by the end of the year.  I think they have shorted each of the currencies and then the powers to be are also manipulating the markets, possibly a very rich hi-so.

I believe there are Thai individuals and companies with US dollar loans that influence the Thai baht value . 

If the Thai baht was allowed to fall the loan payments would increase to a level that would hurt .

[club]

On 9/2/2021 at 2:08 PM, Scrotobike said:

The HiSos control the Bhat as they will exchange their US$ created by exports at a strategic time for them. Because the Bhat is not really a speculation currency, it is driven by these export US$ and also the movements of investment in Bhat securities.

 

Bhat securities are showing an out flow of Bhat, which is being mopped up by the HiSo lot. 

 

Currency economics - a black art.

Currency manipulation at its best. 

[jacko45k]

38 minutes ago, Percy P said:

But the Pound has strengthened since UK departed from the EUROPEAN Union .prior to that the Pound was between 36-38B/£ today 45.25B/£

Better to compare it to say USD...... 

[Neeranam]

On 9/5/2021 at 3:28 PM, DefaultName said:

In the UK, there is an attitude among some social groups of not saving or paying into pensions for retirement.  The issue is that access to State benefits is restricted if you have savings or income, so they enjoy their money now, knowing that the State will keep them later.  You and I see this as wrong, they don't. 

 

Some able-bodied people retiring now have never worked.  I have an opinion on that one too.  ????

I will get a UK pension despite only working there for 5 years and not paying anything for over 20 years in Thailand. 

A few years ago, I paid back 10 years of contributions at once, about 66k baht. This was Class 2 contributions. I see on the forecast, I will get something like 780 GBP a month in 11 years. 

Should be more than enough added to my Thai pension, which I put all in bitcoin a year ago at $7,000(now $45,000).