CCSA warns COVID infections may surge in October if guard lowered

[SiSePuede419]

Just canceled my ticket to BKK in October.   Full refund,  no cancelation fee on JAL.

 

Maybe next year after more people are vaccinated in Thailand. 

[cyril sneer]

1 hour ago, the green light said:

they can't lie about the dead bodies.

 

they can and do

[Nanaplaza666]

52 minutes ago, nkg said:

 

Or to put it another way, Thailand's covid deaths (250 a day) are currently 4 times higher than Thailand's road deaths (62 a day).

 

I don't hear anyone saying that road deaths in Thailand are a minor problem ...

 

I DO hear people saying road deaths are a minor problem . The same people that where supposed to order the vaccines and the same corrupt people that are in charge . They don't seem to mind about any deaths at all . Otherwise the whole system would be different and there would be many more speed checks , red light runner checks , drunken driving checks , driving license checks , should i go on or do you get the picture ?  

[Neni]

Surely it's not infections we should be worried about, it's deaths. And I hope the powers that be are monitoring Death Without Vaccine vs. Death After Sinovac vs. Death After Pfizer etc.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

Maybe they went to a different maths class ?

Well I certainly did, tomacht8’s maths and logic is riddled with errors, as I and others have pointed out.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, tandor said:

...time to have 'walk-in-vaccinations' for all ages.

To do that the Government would need to have an adequate supply of vaccines, which is the underlying problem.

 

Too much time and effort protecting the profits of of a very few over the lives and livelihoods of the very many.

 

Thailand’s private health sector (a chosen candidates for one of the ‘hubs’ Thailand claims to promote) was begging to be allowed to directly import vaccines.

 

But no, control the import/production, control the vast ‘profits’ to be made.

 

[Xonax]

11 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

Thailand has 69 million people. Thailand has 1.28 million detected Corvit cases. Thailand has 12,855 Corvit dead. The death rate for detected Corvit cases in relation is around 1%. The risk of death in relation to the population would be: 12855 × 100 / (69000000-1280000) = 0.018%. Why do some doctors fail to understand that the population is willing to live under normal conditions with this risk.

Lockdowns and vaccinations are not just for protecting people from being infected with Covid 19. It as a very important measure, to prevent hospitals running out of capacity for Covid patients and all other kinds of patients. Do you really expect, that people will be willing to live under normal conditions, if they are unable be treated in hospitals, in case they should get sick or involved in an accident??

[arithai12]

11 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

Thailand has 69 million people. Thailand has 1.28 million detected Corvit cases. Thailand has 12,855 Corvit dead. The death rate for detected Corvit cases in relation is around 1%. The risk of death in relation to the population would be: 12855 × 100 / (69000000-1280000) = 0.018%. Why do some doctors fail to understand that the population is willing to live under normal conditions with this risk.

 

11 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Is it something you do often?

 

Speak for whole populations of people?

 

......

Your calculations are flawed.

 

You neglect to recognize the death rates you use are based on deaths with lockdowns and other precautions.

His calculations are overestimated, not underestimated as you think.

Those infection/death numbers are from when the population was largely unvaccinated. It's a different music now.

[Mr Meeseeks]

12 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

There will be a surge because the real numbers can now be posted. The PM won the debate. No need to lie any more.

When the surge comes , he can blame the people. No more alcohol folks!

You got it.

 

We are already seeing this government starting to shift the blame to the people and taking no responsibility for their own incompetence, mismanagement or inaction. 

 

Of course coups help to keep governments unaccountable and 'above the people'. 

 

Interestingly famous authoritarian regimes from history have always been the same.

 

Who'da thunk it?

[Harrith54]

12 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

There will be a surge because the real numbers can now be posted. The PM won the debate. No need to lie any more.

When the surge comes , he can blame the people. No more alcohol folks!

The vacine does not protect from the viral infection and you can spread also after this jab, that we are in other Countries allready. The best example is Israël, they are administring the third jab allready as we write here.  And still have many more cases, with full vaccination. This is all over the news. So where go from here??

[PEE TEE]

 The guard is lowered when you get mass demonstrations   and mass gatherings in car parks with people trying to get the vaccine including those who don't seem to bother about the wearing of masks and having party's. 

Yet the general blame is put on the lack of control and poor handling of the government. it works both ways.   

[mickyr55]

12 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

Thailand has 69 million people. Thailand has 1.28 million detected Corvit cases. Thailand has 12,855 Corvit dead. The death rate for detected Corvit cases in relation is around 1%. The risk of death in relation to the population would be: 12855 × 100 / (69000000-1280000) = 0.018%. Why do some doctors fail to understand that the population is willing to live under normal conditions with this risk.

Far greater risk for driving when is government ban for that arriving. 

[mickyr55]

34 minutes ago, Harrith54 said:

The vacine does not protect from the viral infection and you can spread also after this jab, that we are in other Countries allready. The best example is Israël, they are administring the third jab allready as we write here.  And still have many more cases, with full vaccination. This is all over the news. So where go from here??

This is the new NORMAL..live or die with it this is where we are. 

More danger of dying in car accident rushing home before curfew. 

Edited September 7, 2021 by mickyr55

[pepi2005]

People 'lowering their guard' are especially the ones who got their vaccine shots.

 

One more reason not to go in heavily on them (just as Israel did - with disastrous results so far) but to look for alternative approaches and allow to build 'natural' herd immunity without restricting people's liberties any further. Just my 2c.

[buick]

1 hour ago, arithai12 said:

 

His calculations are overestimated, not underestimated as you think.

Those infection/death numbers are from when the population was largely unvaccinated. It's a different music now.

i agree.  the lockdowns may have reduced the number of deaths to date, however, the vaccinations will reduce the deaths in the future.  

[buick]

1 hour ago, Xonax said:

Do you really expect, that people will be willing to live under normal conditions, if they are unable be treated in hospitals, in case they should get sick or involved in an accident??

Yes.

[Chomper Higgot]

21 minutes ago, pepi2005 said:

People 'lowering their guard' are especially the ones who got their vaccine shots.

 

One more reason not to go in heavily on them (just as Israel did - with disastrous results so far) but to look for alternative approaches and allow to build 'natural' herd immunity without restricting people's liberties any further. Just my 2c.

I suggest you take a look at this thread which references The Lancet.

 

It might help you navigate around the misinformation you’re relying on:

 

 

[Midwit]

13 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Is it something you do often?

 

Speak for whole populations of people?

 

......

Your calculations are flawed.

 

You neglect to recognize the death rates you use are based on deaths with lockdowns and other precautions.

There are other things killing people. I know it’s all Covid all the time but yes he can speak for the whole population in that it’s time to live with the risk. 

[tomacht8]

Is a controversial topic. If you take the available numbers and divide the number of C19 deaths * 100 / detected C19 cases, you get a mathematical percentage. Mathematically that's correct.

 

The only question is what conclusions can be drawn from it. It is already clear to me that the database is vague in all areas. C19 Unreported numbers, number of tests, declared type of death, timing of the data series, degree of infection, vaccination rate, etc.

 

If you look at this indicator for all countries worldwide, it is interesting that Thailand is doing very well with 1.02%, C19 deaths / C19 cases.

 

What everyone around the world is trying to answer is the question of the lockdown contribution. And there are justified doubts as to whether one or the other measure makes a contribution at all.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?

 

[Midwit]

1 hour ago, PEE TEE said:

 The guard is lowered when you get mass demonstrations   and mass gatherings in car parks with people trying to get the vaccine including those who don't seem to bother about the wearing of masks and having party's. 

Yet the general blame is put on the lack of control and poor handling of the government. it works both ways.   

Wear the masks always. Just wondering how long you can wear a mask before it’s effectiveness is reduced. How much humidity reduces the effectiveness? How small are the openings of the surgical mask?  Asking for a friend because no one seems to know. 
 

https://www.thelocal.dk/20201118/danish-study-finds-no-clear-evidence-face-masks-protect-wearer-from-covid-19-infection/
 

The WHO:

1. admits there are no reputable studies proving cloth masks are effective and surgical masks have limited effectiveness.

2. "Staff who do not work in clinical areas do not need to use a medical mask during routine activities (e.g., administrative staff)."

3. "The use of cloth masks... as an alternative to medical masks is not considered appropriate for protection of health workers..."

4. "One study that evaluated the use of cloth masks in a health care facility found that health care workers using cotton cloth masks were at increased risk of influenza-like illness compared with those who wore medical masks."

[cjinchiangrai]

4 hours ago, nkg said:

 

Or to put it another way, Thailand's covid deaths (250 a day) are currently 4 times higher than Thailand's road deaths (62 a day).

 

I don't hear anyone saying that road deaths in Thailand are a minor problem ...

 

A road death today does not create ten more next week. Covid does.

 

I agree with CCSA, keep things tight for a few more months to bring the vaccination numbers up.

[brucec64]

13 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

Thailand has 69 million people. Thailand has 1.28 million detected Corvit cases. Thailand has 12,855 Corvit dead. The death rate for detected Corvit cases in relation is around 1%. The risk of death in relation to the population would be: 12855 × 100 / (69000000-1280000) = 0.018%. Why do some doctors fail to understand that the population is willing to live under normal conditions with this risk.

Your math is flawed. The death rate of 12855 from 1.28 million cases is about 1%. That would mean up to 700k deaths in Thailand if no measures were taken and Covid was allowed to run rampant . Are you ok with that? Or, to put it in perspective, the average number of Facebook friends is about 300. Are you ok with doing nothing and letting 3 of them die? 

 

The reason doctors have to make these decisions is that false information  is being spread by people with little or no analytical skills.

[brucec64]

9 minutes ago, Midwit said:

Wear the masks always. Just wondering how long you can wear a mask before it’s effectiveness is reduced. How much humidity reduces the effectiveness? How small are the openings of the surgical mask?  Asking for a friend because no one seems to know. 
 

https://www.thelocal.dk/20201118/danish-study-finds-no-clear-evidence-face-masks-protect-wearer-from-covid-19-infection/
 

The WHO:

1. admits there are no reputable studies proving cloth masks are effective and surgical masks have limited effectiveness.

2. "Staff who do not work in clinical areas do not need to use a medical mask during routine activities (e.g., administrative staff)."

3. "The use of cloth masks... as an alternative to medical masks is not considered appropriate for protection of health workers..."

4. "One study that evaluated the use of cloth masks in a health care facility found that health care workers using cotton cloth masks were at increased risk of influenza-like illness compared with those who wore medical masks."

Largest study of masks yet details their importance in fighting Covid-19 (nbcnews.com)

 

[sungod]

4 hours ago, nkg said:

 

Your figures are misleading, because Thailand had almost no covid deaths until recently:

 

April 15th 2020 - 43 deaths

October 15th 2020 - 59 deaths

April 15th 2021 - 97 deaths

September 4th 2021 - 12,631 deaths

 

Thailand has been averaging 250 deaths/day for the last 3 weeks. Assuming the daily deaths don't rise any further - optimistically - that would be 250x365 - 91,250 deaths a year.

 

 

Your figures are misleading too, you need to factor in widespread vaccination programs (with quality vaccines.) One would think (and hope) that the death rate would drop.

[tomacht8]

7 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

Your math is flawed. The death rate of 12855 from 1.28 million cases is about 1%. That would mean up to 700k deaths in Thailand if no measures were taken and Covid was allowed to run rampant . Are you ok with that? Or, to put it in perspective, the average number of Facebook friends is about 300. Are you ok with doing nothing and letting 3 of them die? 

 

The reason doctors have to make these decisions is that false information  is being spread by people with little or no analytical skills.

yeap I also calculated the 1%. How did you get to 700K?

[shackleton]

Well we are going to find out after October the 1st

If numbers will increase which I suspect they will

But the Government is now committed to opening up Bangkok and other areas for jobs business ect 

I think most Thais will accept the numbers  to get the Country running again 

Time will tell  

[brucec64]

2 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

yeap I also calculated the 1%. How did you get to 700K?

That's if everyone in Thailand got Covid. I know that's not very realistic, but still the upward boundary. 1% of 70m.

[Chomper Higgot]

33 minutes ago, Midwit said:

There are other things killing people. I know it’s all Covid all the time but yes he can speak for the whole population in that it’s time to live with the risk. 

Let’s have a bit more honesty from you.

 

You don’t think you’re at any significant risk and you are happy for others to take their risk so long as you can get rid of the inconvenience of doing something to protect others.

[Eric Loh]

27 minutes ago, Midwit said:

Wear the masks always. Just wondering how long you can wear a mask before it’s effectiveness is reduced. How much humidity reduces the effectiveness? How small are the openings of the surgical mask?  Asking for a friend because no one seems to know. 
 

https://www.thelocal.dk/20201118/danish-study-finds-no-clear-evidence-face-masks-protect-wearer-from-covid-19-infection/
 

The WHO:

1. admits there are no reputable studies proving cloth masks are effective and surgical masks have limited effectiveness.

2. "Staff who do not work in clinical areas do not need to use a medical mask during routine activities (e.g., administrative staff)."

3. "The use of cloth masks... as an alternative to medical masks is not considered appropriate for protection of health workers..."

4. "One study that evaluated the use of cloth masks in a health care facility found that health care workers using cotton cloth masks were at increased risk of influenza-like illness compared with those who wore medical masks."

Maybe don't ask your friend but look at real world examples of countries that open up fully and abandoning masking and saw infections surged.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-57796133

[jacko45k]

2 hours ago, mickyr55 said:

Far greater risk for driving when is government ban for that arriving. 

What on earth has driving got to do with this topic?

Rhetorical of course, because it is NOTHING!