Covid - is the Thai target of 70% vaccinated reachable?

[fertilizer]

In tourist areas the willingness to vaccinate has been very good. But what about those parts where a lot of people live but few tourists visit? 

 

My feeling is it will be hard to achieve 70 % as like in other countries many people are sceptical due to different but often intelligent reasons.

 

I think the target of 70% will be reached - but only after the government forces people to accept it (directly or indirectly). 

 

[Gaccha]

It is destined to be reached in Bangkok on 22nd October. 

 

It will not be reached by more remote locations until mid/late-2022. 

 

The number of 70% makes little sense. The herd number required to end the infection spread is based on the infection rate of the virus. Since the Delta variant is highly infectious, it implies a required number of 80%, possibly higher. 70% simply won't work alone; there will have to be herd immunity achieved through infection. This seems to be assumed by limited vaccinations of children.

 

The government accepts the infection level so long as ICUs do not become engulfed in patients (hence "flatten the curve" rhetoric of early 2020). They have increased the number of ventilators fourfold in the last 16 months. 

 

There is little sign of Thai resistance to vaccination. They do display scepticism to Sinovac but the evidence of a mixed regime (Sino followed by AZ) is so far extremely good (pre-peer reviewed papers show it to have higher efficacy levels than two AZ shots). With fairly tight government control on information and a docile population used to commands of the bureaucratic state, they will do what they are told. 

[Puccini]

70% or 80% of what? Of the entire population, or of the part of the population eligible for the vaccination?

[Gaccha]

 

2 hours ago, Puccini said:

70% or 80% of what? Of the entire population, or of the part of the population eligible for the vaccination?

80% of the entire population. 

 

That number is a back-of-an-envelope calculation inferred from the R number(the number of people 1 infected person infects). Since children seem resistant to this particular outbreak, they might be regarded as de facto part of the herd already. 

 

Rather oddly, it was researched in mid-2020 that owing to the strange infection pattern of this virus the most effective way to vaccinate was to prioritize the least vulnerable first! I've not seen research to back-up this model but clearly governments decided to take the more sentimental path of prioritizing the vulnerable first. Whilst this is intuitive ("we must surely protect the vulnerable first!" etc) and understandable, it may have increased the required herd count percentage (so 80% instead of, say, a selected 77%).

 

Although old people are extremely vulnerable to this virus, there is nothing inevitable about that. The post-World War one virus had a W-shape pattern, afflicting the very young, a small range of the middle-aged and the old. So sentimentality with other viruses could be useful in the herd accumulation of immunity. 

[LivinLOS]

16 hours ago, Gaccha said:

There is little sign of Thai resistance to vaccination

TOTALLY disagree with the Thais I know.. Far less trusting than westerners of anything said by government, need for it, safety of it, desire for it.. I am having to push like crazy with my own wife and loads of her circle are either anti or taking a wait and see.. That goes to the whole extended family where only 1 of about 20 - 30 people are vaxxed. 

Oddly they all seem to love any snake oil / herbal ideas anyone promotes.. That they will actively spend from there very limited budgets on. 

 

[MrJ2U]

I don't think so.

 

Its all talk. 

The people vaccinated just 6 months ago with Sinovac already need boosters.

 

Putting more pressure on supplies.

 

There not commited to aquiring large amounts of quality mRNA vaccines in one go.  Its drips and drabs.

 

 

Once quality vaccines do arrive there squirreled away for prominent people or just a few "important" provinces.

 

Most Thai people don't want anything to do with Sinovac.

 

 

 

Edited September 23, 2021 by MrJ2U

[khunjeff]

1 hour ago, LivinLOS said:

TOTALLY disagree with the Thais I know.. Far less trusting than westerners of anything said by government, need for it, safety of it, desire for it.. I am having to push like crazy with my own wife and loads of her circle are either anti or taking a wait and see.. That goes to the whole extended family where only 1 of about 20 - 30 people are vaxxed. 

Then I guess it depends which circles you move in, since all of my Thai friends are either fully vaccinated or eagerly waiting for a second dose (mostly of AZ).

 

I do agree that most Thais have developed a fair amount of skepticism for Sinovac, feeling that it was being foisted on them by the government for reasons unconnected with health, but that distrust for government officials has also piqued their interest in Pfizer and Moderna, which are seen as the good vaccines that the ministers are trying to prevent them from getting. 

 

Ironically, the Thai medical establishment itself seems to be a barrier of sorts to widespread vaccine adoption. They continue to play up very rare side effects in the media, and raise distrust through their experiments with mixing vaccines and changing doses, strategies which Thais can see are not being used in other countries. They are also telling people that their Covid shot has to be separated by 2-4 weeks from other vaccinations (the US CDC says you can even get other vaccinations on the same day); that you can't get vaccinated if your blood pressure is elevated when you arrive for your appointment (hypertensives are actually at a greater risk from Covid than others); and telling older people with chronic conditions that they shouldn't be vaccinated (when in fact those are precisely the group most in need).

[JBChiangRai]

According the the UK and Germany, there is no such thing as herd immunity through vaccination with this virus.

 

We need to vaccinate anyone at risk (preferably everyone) and learn to live with it.

[robblok]

19 hours ago, Gaccha said:

It is destined to be reached in Bangkok on 22nd October. 

 

It will not be reached by more remote locations until mid/late-2022. 

 

The number of 70% makes little sense. The herd number required to end the infection spread is based on the infection rate of the virus. Since the Delta variant is highly infectious, it implies a required number of 80%, possibly higher. 70% simply won't work alone; there will have to be herd immunity achieved through infection. This seems to be assumed by limited vaccinations of children.

 

The government accepts the infection level so long as ICUs do not become engulfed in patients (hence "flatten the curve" rhetoric of early 2020). They have increased the number of ventilators fourfold in the last 16 months. 

 

There is little sign of Thai resistance to vaccination. They do display scepticism to Sinovac but the evidence of a mixed regime (Sino followed by AZ) is so far extremely good (pre-peer reviewed papers show it to have higher efficacy levels than two AZ shots). With fairly tight government control on information and a docile population used to commands of the bureaucratic state, they will do what they are told. 

I think governments have to open up especially those that don't give enough support to its people like in Thailand.

 

I am also in agreement that we have to live with this disease, and that is ok if your vaccinated and the government makes sure that the infections don't get too high. As long as hospitals can cope its ok then the death rate is acceptable.

 

This will only work if you got 70to80% of people vaccinated so I would certainly not open before targets like that are met.

 

I am fully vaccinated with pfizer. So I don't worry that much. I am ok with whatever they do as long as they make sure that hospitals have enough ICU beds. It was getting a bit dangerous in this wave when hospitals were getting full.

[robblok]

6 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

According the the UK and Germany, there is no such thing as herd immunity through vaccination with this virus.

 

We need to vaccinate anyone at risk (preferably everyone) and learn to live with it.

Indeed the more vaccinated the better too bad about those antivax idiots.

[HappyExpat57]

The PM SAID it would and his word is good as gold, right?

[LivinLOS]

2 hours ago, khunjeff said:

Thai medical establishment itself seems to be a barrier of sorts to widespread vaccine adoption. They continue to play up very rare side effects in the media

yeah just this morning there was media coverage of someone with stroke like symptoms from AZ and thats now making my wife even more resistant for her first shot tomorrow. 

[chilly07]

22 hours ago, Gaccha said:

It is destined to be reached in Bangkok on 22nd October. 

 

It will not be reached by more remote locations until mid/late-2022. 

 

The number of 70% makes little sense. The herd number required to end the infection spread is based on the infection rate of the virus. Since the Delta variant is highly infectious, it implies a required number of 80%, possibly higher. 70% simply won't work alone; there will have to be herd immunity achieved through infection. This seems to be assumed by limited vaccinations of children.

 

The government accepts the infection level so long as ICUs do not become engulfed in patients (hence "flatten the curve" rhetoric of early 2020). They have increased the number of ventilators fourfold in the last 16 months. 

 

There is little sign of Thai resistance to vaccination. They do display scepticism to Sinovac but the evidence of a mixed regime (Sino followed by AZ) is so far extremely good (pre-peer reviewed papers show it to have higher efficacy levels than two AZ shots). With fairly tight government control on information and a docile population used to commands of the bureaucratic state, they will do what they are told.

Reference for pre peer review?

[Gaccha]

4 hours ago, chilly07 said:

Reference for pre peer review?

You can understand that it can take several hours to complete a literature review, and in this case, I surveyed the literature purely for my own interest. So, unsurprisingly, I haven't re- found the paper. 

 

However, I did find a news report which references a double sinovac and AZ booster:

 

(Tpbs news report)

 

"Dr. Chawetsan also revealed that, in neutralizing antibody tests, those inoculated with two doses of Sinovac and one dose of AstraZeneca have the highest immunity levels against the Delta variant (271.17), followed by two doses of AstraZeneca (76.52).

 

Those inoculated with two doses of Sinovac and one dose of Sinopharm have immunity levels at 61.26, while only two doses of Sinovac have the least (24.31)."

 

There was then a news report listing the efficacy rates of several mixing regimes. They are impressive results. 

 

(Mixing regimes news report)

 

The results were as follows:

1. Two doses of Sinovac: 92.36 U/mL of antibodies
2. One dose of Astrazeneca: 51.04 U/mL of antibodies
3. Infected with Covid-19 and recovered: 60.86 U/mL of antibodies
4. First dose Sinovac, second dose AstraZeneca: 615 U/mL of antibodies
5. First dose AstraZeneca, second dose Sinovac: 221.1 U/mL of antibodies

If you concerned about these issues, it's important that you don't simply solicit one paper from people on Thai Visa, but conduct a literature review, looking at 20 + papers until you're satisfied. 

 

[Sydebolle]

If you apply historical figures ............ 

[mtls2005]

On 9/22/2021 at 2:45 PM, fertilizer said:

but only after the government forces people to accept it (directly or indirectly). 

 

I think Thailand does have mandatory vaccinations for infants and children.

 

BCG, HPV, DTP, OPV, MMR, JE...

 

How this is enforced is unknown to me. I think the country takes great pride in their 1 mm strong volunteer health-care force, and the strides they've made in health care. 

 

 

No clue if COVID eventually falls into the optional category, like the annual flu shots, or becomes mandatory.

 

Probably depends on how COVID presents going forward.

 

 

 

 

 

[BestB]

I think thailand would be one of the most vaccinated in the world, way over 70%, because Thai do as they are told.

 

however, all those living in rural areas will not be travelling to any hospital to get vaxed unless government goes out to them

[Puccini]

6 hours ago, mtls2005 said:

I think Thailand does have mandatory vaccinations for infants and children.

 

BCG, HPV, DTP, OPV, MMR, JE...

I think Thailand does not have any mandatory vaccinations for infants and children.

[Chomper Higgot]

On 9/22/2021 at 3:18 PM, Gaccha said:

It is destined to be reached in Bangkok on 22nd October. 

 

It will not be reached by more remote locations until mid/late-2022. 

 

The number of 70% makes little sense. The herd number required to end the infection spread is based on the infection rate of the virus. Since the Delta variant is highly infectious, it implies a required number of 80%, possibly higher. 70% simply won't work alone; there will have to be herd immunity achieved through infection. This seems to be assumed by limited vaccinations of children.

 

The government accepts the infection level so long as ICUs do not become engulfed in patients (hence "flatten the curve" rhetoric of early 2020). They have increased the number of ventilators fourfold in the last 16 months. 

 

There is little sign of Thai resistance to vaccination. They do display scepticism to Sinovac but the evidence of a mixed regime (Sino followed by AZ) is so far extremely good (pre-peer reviewed papers show it to have higher efficacy levels than two AZ shots). With fairly tight government control on information and a docile population used to commands of the bureaucratic state, they will do what they are told. 

Alternatively.

 

The absence of politically driven anti-vaccine propaganda and the existence of social responsibility in acting for the collective good are helping Thai society respond responsibly to this public health emergency.

 

I have little doubt the people of Thailand will achieve near 100% vaccination if the Government make the vaccines available.

 

 

 

[cclub75]

On 9/22/2021 at 3:18 PM, Gaccha said:

There is little sign of Thai resistance to vaccination.With fairly tight government control on information and a docile population used to commands of the bureaucratic state, they will do what they are told. 

You are badly misinformed... Go out a little bit of your Bangkok condo... Many people up country are well informed, and understand that the fanatism about those products, demonstrated by Bangkok authorities... is not normal.

 

There is a large number of people who distrust this puppets governement (and they're right about it).

 

So, all your numbers (80 %, 70 %) are just... numbers, fantasized by some Bangkok elites, totally cut out from reality.