Expert advice how to compare stats e.g. Thailand and England

[RubbaJohnny]

1 I am not anti vax .

2 I have had many INt vax certs in 50 years of travel and registered for all Covid vax here

3 I do relaize stats vary depending on methodolgy size of sample,age of chorts, comorbiditues  date etc

4 At present I understand around 3/4 of English pop 50 million are vaxxed and 3/4 of Thais are lacking double dose of any vax 

 

My question is how is is rate is 3 times higher today in UK, but even vaxxed people will have to quarantine to visit?

A quick peek https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Shows.almsot ten times more dead in UK than here and total cases in UK cases 

over 7 million yet unvaxxed Thailand 1.5 million.

 

There is something very odd here,not just a few percentiles within the margn of error or sample size?

 

Is it to do with unvaxxed foreigners or rule breakers?

Have the variants or health treatments in UK been worse.

Are Thai deaths not be named as Covid when comorbidities or vice versa?

Were the high deaths in UK care homes fraail sick folks who woiud have already died here.where average life expectancy is c 5 years less, yet a Thai women can expect to live about same as a British man just under 80

 

Is either or both regimes massaging the figures for if  they are even close to true it seems safer not to vax or lockdown as the British have repeatedly done

 

I will be esp interested to hear from qualified statisticians, epidemiologits or Drs working with Covid.

 

I do realize the stats and testing may be skewed but the deaths? UK yesterday 18o Thailnd 132.

 

Total deaths Uk 135,000

 poor unvaxxed  Thailand 16,000

 

What am I missing ?

 

Keep safe , wear a mask to protect the weak and vulnerable and lets hope this is the last big wave.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 25, 2021 by RubbaJohnny
link

[Chomper Higgot]

There are a number of differences between UK (English society) and Thai society, there are also some significant differences between how each Government reacted to the pandemic.

 

Unlike the UK Thailand does not have large numbers of old people living in ‘care homes’. in The UK these have accounted for very large numbers of COVID deaths.

 

Housing and lifestyle differences are also significant. In Thailand much more of daily life and interactions take place out of doors than in the UK. Outdoor markets, outdoor restaurants and generally spending time outside rather than in the house. 

 

Mass transport is very much much more used in the UK than in Thailand. Motorcycles are used more than cars.

 

All these activities outside in the fresh air compared with people in the UK being predominantly indoors.

 

The response of individuals has also been significantly different, mask usage in Thailand started very early in the pandemic, is and has always remained nearly 100% compliant. Temperature checks and hand cleansing is near universal.

There is no anti mask, anti lockdown sentiment, people in Thailand have supported the public health response.

 

The government responses have also differed, The UK government started off with its failed herd immunity experiment which resulted in a large number of deaths early in the pandemic.

 

One particular difference I and others have noted is the part local community leaders play in combatting the disease.

 

In the community I live in we’ve had a case of a young couple arriving from BKK but not following isolation. They were forcibly taken into isolation.

 

We’ve had two cases of positive infection, these were announced on the village public address system. 

 

I arrived this week from Chonburi/Bangkok where I’ve been to get my vaccines. The local health official called the day I arrived to check my health and vaccination documents, without which I would have been required to isolate.

 

I’m staying home anyway, but the local community leaders are on the case.

 

I doubt many in the UK would accept such intrusion into their lives.

 

Two entirely different societies dealing with the same virus, each in their own way and hence each seeing a different outcome.

[Jeffr2]

Thai officials have said numerous times their stats are under counted. Who knows the real numbers. But 2x would be closer to reality. Maybe even 3x.

 

Mexico was off by at least 60%.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56558059

[RubbaJohnny]

5 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

There are a number of differences between UK (English society) and Thai society, there are also some significant differences between how each Government reacted to the pandemic.

 

Unlike the UK Thailand does not have large numbers of old people living in ‘care homes’. in The UK these have accounted for very large numbers of COVID deaths.

 

Housing and lifestyle differences are also significant. In Thailand much more of daily life and interactions take place out of doors than in the UK. Outdoor markets, outdoor restaurants and generally spending time outside rather than in the house. 

 

Mass transport is very much much more used in the UK than in Thailand. Motorcycles are used more than cars.

 

All these activities outside in the fresh air compared with people in the UK being predominantly indoors.

 

The response of individuals has also been significantly different, mask usage in Thailand started very early in the pandemic, is and has always remained nearly 100% compliant. Temperature checks and hand cleansing is near universal.

There is no anti mask, anti lockdown sentiment, people in Thailand have supported the public health response.

 

The government responses have also differed, The UK government started off with its failed herd immunity experiment which resulted in a large number of deaths early in the pandemic.

 

One particular difference I and others have noted is the part local community leaders play in combatting the disease.

 

In the community I live in we’ve had a case of a young couple arriving from BKK but not following isolation. They were forcibly taken into isolation.

 

We’ve had two cases of positive infection, these were announced on the village public address system. 

 

I arrived this week from Chonburi/Bangkok where I’ve been to get my vaccines. The local health official called the day I arrived to check my health and vaccination documents, without which I would have been required to isolate.

 

I’m staying home anyway, but the local community leaders are on the case.

 

I doubt many in the UK would accept such intrusion into their lives.

 

Two entirely different societies dealing with the same virus, each in their own way and hence each seeing a different outcome.

Good point re old people's home and indoor liefstyle, so you view it more as afil in UK than success here? I understand that may have been true last year but those old folks are long gone sdaly, it has been the sumer inUK yet numbers ad deaths still gigher, could it be the variants? It is hard to believe Drs and public Hospitals while doing their bes are better here than UK.

 

Your point about compliance is true tho  see mask wearing is slipping as cases fall and outside of the MAll 50/50.

 

Anyway thanks for an informative and helpful reply.

[RubbaJohnny]

4 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Thai officials have said numerous times their stats are under counted. Who knows the real numbers. But 2x would be closer to reality. Maybe even 3x.

 

Mexico was off by at least 60%.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56558059

You may well be roght on cases due to limited testing.

 

However I cannot belive th eagerly expected funderal Piti could be disgused here, even if ceremony limited.

 

Of course teh death may be accounted for by comorbidities .

 

One day we may leanr all teh Data and serious comparitve longtitudinaal studes can take place.

 

By  the way I am not knocking either system, numbers have been v high initially in China now largely controlled but Russia USA Mexico Colombia all differnet Health system diet climate cultures.

 

One final poser is AZ used here unacceptable to enter UK, do they think it is fake , diluted or they just don't trust the certs with local corrupt reputation?

 

[Farmerslife]

Timing.

The UK vaccination program didn't start until February by which time they had already recorded 116,000 deaths.

 

Thailand managed to contain the first two waves but was unprepared when the 3rd wave, the delta variant took hold in April.

[micmichd]

22 hours ago, RubbaJohnny said:

Good point re old people's home and indoor liefstyle, so you view it more as afil in UK than success here? I understand that may have been true last year but those old folks are long gone sdaly, it has been the sumer inUK yet numbers ad deaths still gigher, could it be the variants? It is hard to believe Drs and public Hospitals while doing their bes are better here than UK.

 

Your point about compliance is true tho  see mask wearing is slipping as cases fall and outside of the MAll 50/50.

 

Anyway thanks for an informative and helpful reply.

Guess the comorbibidities make a difference. If someone in the West suffers from CoviD-19 or flu, then his or her death would probably counted as CoviD-19 death. While in warm Thailand it is easier to discrimate, and Thai folks don't run to a doctor for every cough. 

[micmichd]

Just now, micmichd said:

Guess the comorbibidities make a difference. If someone in the West suffers from CoviD-19 or flu, then his or her death would probably counted as CoviD-19 death. While in warm Thailand it is easier to discrimate, and Thai folks don't run to a doctor for every cough. 

Edit : I mean "comorbidities" 

[Dionigi]

I'm still pushing my own theory that the temperature and humidity in Thailand reduced the infection rate and deaths. When a new variant arose, from a hot country, the death toll started to rise in Thailand. The same sort of figures occur in other tropical countries more or less.

[mrfill]

On 9/25/2021 at 8:39 AM, RubbaJohnny said:

Good point re old people's home and indoor liefstyle, so you view it more as afil in UK than success here? I understand that may have been true last year but those old folks are long gone sdaly, it has been the sumer inUK yet numbers ad deaths still gigher, could it be the variants? It is hard to believe Drs and public Hospitals while doing their bes are better here than UK.

 

Your point about compliance is true tho  see mask wearing is slipping as cases fall and outside of the MAll 50/50.

 

Anyway thanks for an informative and helpful reply.

Compare the figures of more recent times. 95% of Thai deaths are since April 1st.  That figure is 16049 whereas the UK figure for the same period is 9459 (Figures from Ourworldindata.org).

 

Positive tests are much higher in the UK, but the testing is far more intense. Again, since April 1st, Thailand has conducted 9.96 million tests. UK has conducted 153.82 million. With similar populations (around 68m) you can see that Thailand have nearly 60m who may, or may not be infected. We simply don't know as they haven't been tested. In the UK, most cases have been identified as 15 times as many tests have been conducted.

[i84teen]

Obesity, which increases covid risk dramatically  likely afflicts western countries much more than Thailand, plus warm/humid climate may have some impact as well.

^{The approaching cold/flu season could see increased covid infections in the west and spread to Thailand if tourism is opened up.}

Edited September 26, 2021 by i84teen

[micmichd]

8 minutes ago, i84teen said:

Obesity, which increases covid risk dramatically  likely afflicts western countries much more than Thailand, plus warm/humid climate may have some impact as well. The approaching cold/flu season could see increased covid infections in the west and spread to Thailand if tourism is opened up.

Then Westerners should exercise more in their home countries. Many do here in Thailand anyway. Not on barstools though. 

[gamini]

On 9/25/2021 at 9:22 AM, Chomper Higgot said:

There are a number of differences between UK (English society) and Thai society, there are also some significant differences between how each Government reacted to the pandemic.

 

Unlike the UK Thailand does not have large numbers of old people living in ‘care homes’. in The UK these have accounted for very large numbers of COVID deaths.

 

Housing and lifestyle differences are also significant. In Thailand much more of daily life and interactions take place out of doors than in the UK. Outdoor markets, outdoor restaurants and generally spending time outside rather than in the house. 

 

Mass transport is very much much more used in the UK than in Thailand. Motorcycles are used more than cars.

 

All these activities outside in the fresh air compared with people in the UK being predominantly indoors.

 

The response of individuals has also been significantly different, mask usage in Thailand started very early in the pandemic, is and has always remained nearly 100% compliant. Temperature checks and hand cleansing is near universal.

There is no anti mask, anti lockdown sentiment, people in Thailand have supported the public health response.

 

The government responses have also differed, The UK government started off with its failed herd immunity experiment which resulted in a large number of deaths early in the pandemic.

 

One particular difference I and others have noted is the part local community leaders play in combatting the disease.

 

In the community I live in we’ve had a case of a young couple arriving from BKK but not following isolation. They were forcibly taken into isolation.

 

We’ve had two cases of positive infection, these were announced on the village public address system. 

 

I arrived this week from Chonburi/Bangkok where I’ve been to get my vaccines. The local health official called the day I arrived to check my health and vaccination documents, without which I would have been required to isolate.

 

I’m staying home anyway, but the local community leaders are on the case.

 

I doubt many in the UK would accept such intrusion into their lives.

 

Two entirely different societies dealing with the same virus, each in their own way and hence each seeing a different outcome.

Trump clone, Boris Johnson obsessed with pushing brexit through ignored the pandemic resulting in a death rate 10 times higher than Thailand even with the smaller population

Brits who criticise Thailand regarding the pandemic are just hypocrites.

[1FinickyOne]

sorry. i did not read all the posts but you might be missing this...

 

Thailand locked down early and had about a year of nearly no covid while you guys were dropping like flies.. 

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

3 hours ago, Dionigi said:

I'm still pushing my own theory that the temperature and humidity in Thailand reduced the infection rate and deaths. When a new variant arose, from a hot country, the death toll started to rise in Thailand. The same sort of figures occur in other tropical countries more or less.

Because the temperature and humidity in Thailand are higher than that in the human lung?!

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, i84teen said:

Obesity, which increases covid risk dramatically  likely afflicts western countries much more than Thailand, plus warm/humid climate may have some impact as well.

^{The approaching cold/flu season could see increased covid infections in the west and spread to Thailand if tourism is opened up.}

If warm humid climates mates have some impact, how is the advent of the cold/flu season (winter) going to increase infections and why are the warm humid southern states of the US so hard hit with hospitalizations and deaths?

[Thingamabob]

2 hours ago, gamini said:

Trump clone, Boris Johnson obsessed with pushing brexit through ignored the pandemic resulting in a death rate 10 times higher than Thailand even with the smaller population

Brits who criticise Thailand regarding the pandemic are just hypocrites.

For the record, deaths by country, reportedly:-

USA 705,000

Brazil 590,000

India 440.,000

Mexico 270.000

Russia 200.000

Peru 200,000

Indonesia 140,000

UK 135,000

Italy 130,000

France 116,000

Germany 94,000

Spain 86,000

 

Are the leaders of these countries all 'Trump clones' ?

[gamini]

On 9/25/2021 at 2:39 PM, RubbaJohnny said:

Good point re old people's home and indoor liefstyle, so you view it more as afil in UK than success here? I understand that may have been true last year but those old folks are long gone sdaly, it has been the sumer inUK yet numbers ad deaths still gigher, could it be the variants? It is hard to believe Drs and public Hospitals while doing their bes are better here than UK.

 

Your point about compliance is true tho  see mask wearing is slipping as cases fall and outside of the MAll 50/50.

 

Anyway thanks for an informative and helpful reply.

The Thai public health system is very good. They have been let down by not having enough vaccines. They definitely doing a much better job than in the UK. 16,000 deaths against 160,000. I see all Thais wearing masks and distancing in public places I have been vaccinated twice it was extraordinary efficient friendly and well-organised.  

[jayboy]

22 hours ago, gamini said:

Trump clone, Boris Johnson obsessed with pushing brexit through ignored the pandemic resulting in a death rate 10 times higher than Thailand even with the smaller population

Brits who criticise Thailand regarding the pandemic are just hypocrites.

Four spectacular lies in three lines.Is this a record?

 

Turning to the topic there are several factors to account for the difference.Obesity is absolutely critical.Most of the victims in the UK under the age of 60 were morbidly obese with underlying conditions like heart disease, high blood pressure and diabetes. I don't think that obesity is a significant problem in Thailand.When I visited my sick father in Manchester a few years ago it was very obvious there was a huge obesity problem among NHS workers particularly nurses.

 

 

[mikebike]

20 hours ago, Thingamabob said:

For the record, deaths by country, reportedly:-

USA 705,000

Brazil 590,000

India 440.,000

Mexico 270.000

Russia 200.000

Peru 200,000

Indonesia 140,000

UK 135,000

Italy 130,000

France 116,000

Germany 94,000

Spain 86,000

 

Are the leaders of these countries all 'Trump clones' ?

4 of the first 5....

[i84teen]

22 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

If warm humid climates mates have some impact, how is the advent of the cold/flu season (winter) going to increase infections and why are the warm humid southern states of the US so hard hit with hospitalizations and deaths?

same reason the countries with highest vax rates have some of the highest c19 infection rates and also, to confuse people like you, which seems pretty common occurrence, and because u don't like me and because people like to troll and because.....

555

[BritManToo]

On 9/25/2021 at 8:16 AM, RubbaJohnny said:

Is either or both regimes massaging the figures for if  they are even close to true it seems safer not to vax or lockdown as the British have repeatedly done

Thai people tend to live outside, British people mainly live inside, due to the weather.

Old Thai people are often very thin, old British people are usually overweight.

Thai people die fairly quickly when they're old, British people linger on forever under the NHS.

 

I suspect this is the main difference for the COVID death discrepancies between the two countries.

But I'm no expert and I'm not trying to spread misinformation.

Edited September 27, 2021 by BritManToo