ICE vs EV, the debate thread

[JBChiangRai]

14 minutes ago, transam said:

MG purchasers believe it.................????

Actually, they are designed in England, the design team is based in London, I believe

[KhunLA]

15 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

Actually, they are designed in England, the design team is based in London, I believe

Well done team MG ????

[KhunLA]

17 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

Apple iPhones have the ability to tell you the maximum capacity of the battery, it starts out at 100% but a year later mine is down to 77%. It still charges up to indicated 100%, but it’s 100% of 77%, I trust that is as clear as mud? 

Completely understood ... others seem to have difficulty reading and understanding #s ????

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

The Nissan leaf had a big problem, it’s batteries are air cooled, not liquid cooled, and in my humble opinion on suitable for hot climates. Maybe they have addressed that, and now they’re liquid cooled, I don’t know.

The biggest problem came with replacement. IIRC, having to shell out AUD $38,000 to replace a failed battery on a vehicle that cost AUD 50,000 new.

That's a repair bill which would make anybody's eyes water.

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, BKKBike09 said:

If I may ....

 

I agree with you in respect of the greater intensity of an EV battery fire compared to an ICE fire. I think it is statistically unlikely to happen, but if it does, it is undeniably very bad news and results in a major blaze, in very short order, that is hard to extinguish.

 

However, I'm not sure why you say "it is almost certain both fires were started by EVs"? If you said "it is almost certain that, once the fire started, regardless of cause, if EVs then combusted, the ensuing blaze would have been intense".

 

As to what started those fires - an electrical short circuit can cause a fire anywhere (just look at how many fires are caused in Thai homes by short circuits). The trend these days is for more and more electronics in cars, whether EV or ICE, so statistically the risk of short circuit likely increases for both. It's also important to note that an EVs low power systems are invariably supplied by a standard 12/24V lead acid battery because it's cheaper - and safer - than some sort of step-down system drawing from a 400 or 800V main cell. The basic electrical system (locks, windows, wipers, ignition etc) is isolated from the main power cell, so a short in the former shouldn't affect the latter. I'm not sure how a main power cell would short if not subjected to some form of damage.

 

Also, do you accept that the risk of thermal runaway - especially leading to spontaneous combustion - is much, much lower with LiFePO4 (FFP) chemistry batteries? If you don't accept this, why?

 

Similarly - and correct me if I am wrong - but your comment "EV fires supply their own fuel and oxygen" relates to older Lithion Ion battery chemistry (which I will agree is still what powers most EVs on the road at the moment), where decomposition of the cobalt oxide or manganese oxide in the cathode is what generates the 'in-house' O2 supply.

 

LFP batteries use lithium iron phosphate as the cathode material - again my understanding 

is that the oxygen component is too tightly bound for combustion even in thermal run-away.

 

One can argue either way on whether the fire started in an EV, or somewhere else, maybe even an ICE.

You are not wrong in saying the older and still predominant batteries are the main risk in terms of a self-sustaining reaction.

The point is once an EV got involved, of any battery type, one is looking at an uncontrolled release of up to 60 KWh of stored energy.

The First Law of Thermodynamics says all forms of energy are inter-convertible. Properly directed, the electrical energy in an EV becomes enough converted kinetic energy to take said EV 400 - 500 km. If the electrical energy becomes heat instead, thermal runaway up to 900 C, or more. Anything organic in that environment becomes part of the conflagration.

It would be an interesting experiment, if somewhat expensive, to park three ICE's together, then measure the rate of spread and intensity from the middle vehicle after initiating combustion there. I suspect both variables  would not be as extreme as with three EV's parked together.

[novacova]

3 hours ago, sungod said:

Nothing is to be gained by arguing with fools

Nothing is gained by name calling and slinging dispersions toward others here. But if one is so insecure and desperate to be on a perpetual one-upping of others throughout the forum, then it may be time to do something about those diaper burns???? 

[novacova]

17 hours ago, sungod said:

Your credibility is blown already, you've already replied and watched it (apparently)

 

Up to you to prove you aren't the one full of BS. I have nothing to prove......m'lud

Videos don’t prove anything ever. I’ve seen a lot of videos and clips where well known people have commented serious crimes and mayhem and have never been charged with any crimes, yet they live in big mansions in Beverly Hills and are greatly revered. Though arguing about such things is so futile because in order to grasp and conceive EV vs ICE one needs to read a lot of material objectively and take it in empirically. Sighting a couple few articles or science papers means nothing and proves nothing, it’s just an aspect. Meanwhile I’m going to go outside and joyfully and willingly burn some fossil fuel????

[BKKBike09]

22 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

The point is once an EV got involved, of any battery type, one is looking at an uncontrolled release of up to 60 KWh of stored energy.

The First Law of Thermodynamics says all forms of energy are inter-convertible. Properly directed, the electrical energy in an EV becomes enough converted kinetic energy to take said EV 400 - 500 km. If the electrical energy becomes heat instead, thermal runaway up to 900 C, or more. Anything organic in that environment becomes part of the conflagration.

I still disagree with the "any battery type" as all the literature I've read / videos I've watched strongly supports the view that, compared to Lithium Ion batteries, LFP batteries a) are much less prone to thermal runaway; b) that if thermal runaway does occur, it reaches much lower temperatures (c. 500 C. - still hot, of course); and c) that LFP thermal runaway does not typically involve self-combustion. Basically the battery can get hot, it may rupture and vent gases, but it will not normally catch fire without an ignition source.

[sungod]

21 minutes ago, novacova said:

Nothing is gained by name calling and slinging dispersions toward others here. But if one is so insecure and desperate to be on a perpetual one-upping of others throughout the forum, then it may be time to do something about those diaper burns???? 

Isn't that exactly what you are attempting here, oh the irony ! ????

[Lacessit]

1 minute ago, BKKBike09 said:

I still disagree with the "any battery type" as all the literature I've read / videos I've watched strongly supports the view that, compared to Lithium Ion batteries, LFP batteries a) are much less prone to thermal runaway; b) that if thermal runaway does occur, it reaches much lower temperatures (c. 500 C. - still hot, of course); and c) that LFP thermal runaway does not typically involve self-combustion. Basically the battery can get hot, it may rupture and vent gases, but it will not normally catch fire without an ignition source.

I see you still fail to understand the concept of stored energy.

You have a link which proves the electricity in a LFP battery differs from that of a Li-ion battery?

[novacova]

6 minutes ago, sungod said:

Isn't that exactly what you are attempting here, oh the irony ! ????

No attempt was made. There is actually no need to one-up anyone here. Unless of course one is a coward and would never have such a formed dialogue with a complete stranger in person, and instead choose to nitpick and bully others hiding behind an anonymous profile. And you are certainly welcome to reply with an insult if if makes you feel good about yourself, I can care less. Oh-the-irony-???? Enjoy this pleasant day ????

[JBChiangRai]

31 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I see you still fail to understand the concept of stored energy.

You have a link which proves the electricity in a LFP battery differs from that of a Li-ion battery?

I don’t think he was talking about electrical stored energy.  The only electricity I know that is different, is Thai electricity, apparently it doesn’t need an earth in houses here because it’s different. ????

 

What he was talking about is battery chemistry.

 

I think your comment about “still fail to understand” wasn’t appropriate or polite.

[JBChiangRai]

20 minutes ago, novacova said:

No attempt was made. There is actually no need to one-up anyone here. Unless of course one is a coward and would never have such a formed dialogue with a complete stranger in person, and instead choose to nitpick and bully others hiding behind an anonymous profile. And you are certainly welcome to reply with an insult if if makes you feel good about yourself, I can care less. Oh-the-irony-???? Enjoy this pleasant day ????

He had a pop at me for fining people in the UK & giving them criminal records for cannabis use, I suspect he’s been on the wrong end of that himself, and maybe it’s why he trolls me. He may not even be anti-EV, just anti JBChiangRai or anti anti-cannabis people. Maybe you missed the dig when he called me m’lud.

 

Apologies for going off-topic.

[Lacessit]

33 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I don’t think he was talking about electrical stored energy.  The only electricity I know that is different, is Thai electricity, apparently it doesn’t need an earth in houses here because it’s different. ????

 

What he was talking about is battery chemistry.

 

I think your comment about “still fail to understand” wasn’t appropriate or polite.

You have the option of reporting my posts if you consider they are abusive. I was unaware we had a decorum detective in our midst.

I am curious, why are you leaping to the defense of others? They may find the inference they can't fend for themselves offensive.

Or are you just what the Americans term a buttinsky?

 

 

[transam]

3 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Well done team MG ????

They're all Chinese...............????

Poor ol' Mr. Morris, just kicked his box lid....................????

[JBChiangRai]

4 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

You have the option of reporting my posts if you consider they are abusive. I was unaware we had a decorum detective in our midst.

I am curious, why are you leaping to the defense of others? They may find the inference they can't fend for themselves offensive.

Or are you just what the Americans term a buttinsky?

 

 

I don’t think your sleights are abusive, just inappropriate.  Your posts are often highly factual and educational.

 

Buttinsky? Is that some kind of a gay slur? Are you trying to tell me something about yourself there?

[JBChiangRai]

3 minutes ago, transam said:

They're all Chinese...............????

Poor ol' Mr. Morris, just kicked his box lid....................????

I’m curious, are you from the former colonies? Why do you drive a transam? I drove one once, it was horrible.

[Lacessit]

5 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I don’t think your sleights are abusive, just inappropriate.  Your posts are often highly factual and educational.

 

Buttinsky? Is that some kind of a gay slur? Are you trying to tell me something about yourself there?

Look it up, Google is your friend.

[Lacessit]

1 minute ago, JBChiangRai said:

I’m curious, are you from the former colonies? Why do you drive a transam? I drove one once, it was horrible.

He's British.

[JBChiangRai]

2 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

He's British.

I thought he might be, he has a British sense of humour.

 

it makes it all the more crazy that he drives a transam, I drove one for a short time in the 1970s and I couldn’t believe how slow it was for such a large engine car. I had a Lincoln continental coupe for about six months with a 7.5 L engine, and that wouldn’t break 80 mph.

[JBChiangRai]

5 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Look it up, Google is your friend.

I’m a little nervous of any friends talking about butt’s and in’s and sky.

[Lacessit]

3 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I’m a little nervous of any friends talking about butt’s and in’s and sky.

Why? I am full hetero, with several gay friends. Their choice of sexuality is irrelevant to me.

If you looked up the meaning, you know no gay slur was intended.

[JBChiangRai]

7 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Why? I am full hetero, with several gay friends. Their choice of sexuality is irrelevant to me.

If you looked up the meaning, you know no gay slur was intended.

I was messing with you

[Lacessit]

28 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I was messing with you

Didn't sound that way.

[GroveHillWanderer]

52 minutes ago, transam said:

They're all Chinese...............????

Poor ol' Mr. Morris, just kicked his box lid....................????

Sure, the people in that picture look Asian - but there's no way to know if they're Chinese or not.

 

However you don't think that's a picture of the actual MG design team in England do you?

 

Although it's also stated that:

 

Quote

Colleagues from China also often come to work in the studio.

According to the article below here are the names of some of the main team members, at least as of a couple of years ago.

 

Quote

Anthony Williams-Kenny, Director of Design

Pierre Luigi Ferrari, exterior team lead

Paul Matthew, interior team lead

Carl Gotham, Chief Designer Advanced

MG Motors UK design team expands

[retarius]

I drive a diesel pick up and a petrol van. I think EV is a pile of nonsense. I will get one when the technology is there to replace my vehicles.....it isn't there yet. Plus the planet sparing aspect is way over stated......the CO2 cost to build an EV with a ton weight of battery far outweighs what it saves in the first few years of motoring....and you make the vehicle less efficient by dragging a ton weight around with you everywhere you go. Also I have been fooled before by "up to"....yes speeds up to 100 MB per second and when you buy it you find it is slower than dial up....same will be here....range up to 500 km (if it is 30 degrees and you don't use the a/c)....if you turn the a/c on it is 250 km. Then you have the extreme toxicity of the batteries and the vast pollution it will cause to get rid of them every "up to 8 years" (or 5 years or 3 years if you recharge it too much etc etc) Plus resale value of a 3 to 5 year vehicle will be near zero....who want to pay the price of a new car to replace the batteries.....not me that's for sure. No, I'll stick with ICE thanks very much...and in 20 years when I can get 1000km from a single charge on a battery that lasts 25 years guaranteed, and fully recharges in 3 minutes.....then I might think about one. But hopefully I'll be dead by then.

[GroveHillWanderer]

7 hours ago, Lacessit said:

John Cadogan rants about everything. That is his style of presentation. Underneath that is solid engineering and physics.

The Fremantle fire is an example of probabilities and logic. Look at the number of shipboard fires arising from transporting vehicles that are solely fuelled by gasoline and diesel. Then look at the ignition temperature of said fuels, about 210 C. It takes an external heat source to get a fire going. It only takes a short circuit for an EV to go into thermal runaway.

OTOH, there are now two shipboard fires where a mix of EV's and ICE's were being transported. The greater intensity of EV fires is undeniable.

On balance of probability, it is almost certain both fires were started by EV's, as the ship's crew could have contained an ICE fire with foam, powder or water. As explained, EV fires supply their own fuel and oxygen.

Occam's razor.

That's not an example of Occam's razor. Occam's razor is the principle that, "the simplest solution which is consistent with the existing data is preferred." (Emphasis mine).

 

How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cut

 

In this instance, there is no data or evidence to show what caused the fire, therefore you can't invoke Occam's razor to argue that EV's must have been responsible.

[JBChiangRai]

3 minutes ago, retarius said:

I drive a diesel pick up and a petrol van. I think EV is a pile of nonsense. I will get one when the technology is there to replace my vehicles.....it isn't there yet. Plus the planet sparing aspect is way over stated......the CO2 cost to build an EV with a ton weight of battery far outweighs what it saves in the first few years of motoring....and you make the vehicle less efficient by dragging a ton weight around with you everywhere you go. Also I have been fooled before by "up to"....yes speeds up to 100 MB per second and when you buy it you find it is slower than dial up....same will be here....range up to 500 km (if it is 30 degrees and you don't use the a/c)....if you turn the a/c on it is 250 km. Then you have the extreme toxicity of the batteries and the vast pollution it will cause to get rid of them every "up to 8 years" (or 5 years or 3 years if you recharge it too much etc etc) Plus resale value of a 3 to 5 year vehicle will be near zero....who want to pay the price of a new car to replace the batteries.....not me that's for sure. No, I'll stick with ICE thanks very much...and in 20 years when I can get 1000km from a single charge on a battery that lasts 25 years guaranteed, and fully recharges in 3 minutes.....then I might think about one. But hopefully I'll be dead by then.

I’m not sure there is any EV solution for diesel pick up and a petrol van in Thailand just yet.

 

But that EV revolution is already happening, you’ve only to look at the cars on the roads in Thailand’s major cities to see that.
.

 

 

[Lacessit]

1 minute ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

That's not an example of Occam's razor. Occam's razor is the principle that, "the simplest solution which is consistent with the existing data is preferred." (Emphasis mine).

 

How to Use Occam’s Razor Without Getting Cut

 

In this instance, there are no facts or evidence to show what caused the fire, therefore you can't invoke Occam's razor to argue that EV's must have been responsible.

The existing data says there are two intense shipboard fires with two cargoes of mixed EV/ICE vehicles.

Now show me an example of an intense shipboard fire involving a cargo of ICE vehicles alone.

QED.

[Lacessit]

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I’m not sure there is any EV solution for diesel pick up and a petrol van in Thailand just yet.

 

But that EV revolution is already happening, you’ve only to look at the cars on the roads in Thailand’s major cities to see that.
.

 

 

IIRC Tesla is failing quite dismally at designing an EV semi-trailer. Not a huge surprise, one has to cart around as much battery as payload.