ICE vs EV, the debate thread

[KhunLA]

 

[Bandersnatch]

This is a good video showing the reality of EV charging. It includes a timelapse showing EVs charging for only about 10 minutes and a rapid turnover of cars. The explanation is simple: why stay longer than you need paying ฿7/kWh or more when you can charge at home for ฿4 or ฿2.6 Time of Use or in my case free from home solar.

 

 

 

[KhunLA]

 

[motdaeng]

The worlds biggest battery maker reveals solid state battery details

 

https://youtu.be/0W6BeL47GkI

in just a few more years, there will be only few (minor) reasons left to argue against electric mobility.  

over the past years, many counterarguments have been debunked, including concerns about sustainability,

battery lifespan, fire risk, high costs, lack of charging stations, and more ...

 

[Pib]

5 hours ago, KhunLA said:

 

 

I've lost track of how many times the Electric Viking has started off his videos by saying: ".....it's game, set, match...." regarding EVs killing off ICEVs sooner vs later due to some announcement of improved technology by some battery maker or EV maker.   I agree that solid state batteries will be a game changer but how fast their widespread availability/use occurs is probably more than just a few years away....I'm guessing around 5 years is more realistic.   

 

I figure it will be similar to the hard drive to solid state drive (SSD) to M2 drive transition that took around 10 years for widespread transition to SSD and then to M2 even though HHDs are still being made mostly for data centers and cheap storage. 

 

But I did like the Electric Viking's statement that this CATL solid state battery announcement is not like the Toyota's "imaginary"  solid state battery that Toyota has being talking near term release for years and years now. 😁

 

 

[Pib]

See below 16 Oct 2024 CNBC news article regarding solid state batteries and how semi-solid state batteries may be in our future.  Partial quote below and full article at the weblink.   Maybe the stepping stone to solid state batteries will be semi-solid state batteries.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/16/the-race-for-next-gen-ev-batteries-may-soon-pivot-to-semi-solid-state.html

The solid-state batteries hype is fading – prompting auto giants to consider alternatives

 

Key Points

• Solid-state batteries have long been billed as the “holy grail” of sustainable driving. Proponents say they offer safer, cheaper and more powerful batteries for electric vehicles (EVs), as well as faster charging times.
• There could be another option, however: semi-solid-state batteries, which use a hybrid design of solid electrolyte and liquid electrolyte.
• “Five years ago, if we talked about this, I would have been so excited about solid-state batteries,” Transport & Environment’s Julia Poliscanova said. “But somehow ... there is some kind of barrier today.”

[UWEB]

2 hours ago, Pib said:

 

I've lost track of how many times the Electric Viking has started off his videos by saying: ".....it's game, set, match...." regarding EVs killing off ICEVs sooner vs later due to some announcement of improved technology by some battery maker or EV maker.   I agree that solid state batteries will be a game changer but how fast their widespread availability/use occurs is probably more than just a few years away....I'm guessing around 5 years is more realistic.   

 

I figure it will be similar to the hard drive to solid state drive (SSD) to M2 drive transition that took around 10 years for widespread transition to SSD and then to M2 even though HHDs are still being made mostly for data centers and cheap storage. 

 

But I did like the Electric Viking's statement that this CATL solid state battery announcement is not like the Toyota's "imaginary"  solid state battery that Toyota has being talking near term release for years and years now. 😁

 

 

I don't see this guy as reliable source of information, he is just blasting out a lot of b.s. without any proof of verification from where the information is coming from. If you ask in the comment section of his Videos you never get an answer.

[Pib]

31 minutes ago, UWEB said:

I don't see this guy as reliable source of information, he is just blasting out a lot of b.s. without any proof of verification from where the information is coming from. If you ask in the comment section of his Videos you never get an answer.

Yea....I take his videos with a HUGE grain of salt.  It's not uncommon for him to add a half dozen or so new videos to his channel each day....all of which is him basically expressing his opinion on the newly released news articles.   This video is probably based on a China Post article from about a week ago talking CATL "hopes to achieve small scale production by 2027" of this whiz-bang solid state battery.   I expect "by 2027" means by 31 Dec 2027 around 3 years from now.  So, maybe we would see this whiz-bang solid state battery in some 2028 model EVs.   

 

And maybe Toyota's  imaginary solid state battery they have been talking for years and years already  will be out before 2027 if they can ever break their addiction to old technology NiMH Nickel Medal Hydride batteries.

 

 

https://interestingengineering.com/energy/china-catl-solid-state-battery-production-by-2027

Updated: Nov 07, 2024 05:21 AM EST

CATL goes all in for 500 Wh/kg solid-state EV battery mass production

 

CATL’s prototype solid-state batteries have an impressive energy density of 500 Wh/kg, a 40 percent improvement over current lithium-ion batteries that typically reach 350 Wh/kg.

 

China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL), a global leader in lithium-ion battery development and manufacturing, is significantly escalating its investment in all-solid-state battery technology.

A Chinese local media outlet, Late Post, has reported that the company aims to achieve small-scale volume production of its all-solid-state battery by 2027.

 

 

 

[josephbloggs]

25 minutes ago, Pib said:

Yea....I take his videos with a HUGE grain of salt.  It's not uncommon for him to add a half dozen or so new videos to his channel each day....all of which is him basically expressing his opinion on the newly released news articles.   This video is probably based on a China Post article from about a week ago talking CATL "hopes to achieve small scale production by 2027" of this whiz-bang solid state battery.   I expect "by 2027" means by 31 Dec 2027 around 3 years from now.  So, maybe we would see this whiz-bang solid state battery in some 2028 model EVs.   

 

And maybe Toyota's  imaginary solid state battery they have been talking for years and years already  will be out before 2027 if they can ever break their addiction to old technology NiMH Nickel Medal Hydride batteries.

 

 

https://interestingengineering.com/energy/china-catl-solid-state-battery-production-by-2027

Updated: Nov 07, 2024 05:21 AM EST

CATL goes all in for 500 Wh/kg solid-state EV battery mass production

 

CATL’s prototype solid-state batteries have an impressive energy density of 500 Wh/kg, a 40 percent improvement over current lithium-ion batteries that typically reach 350 Wh/kg.

 

China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL), a global leader in lithium-ion battery development and manufacturing, is significantly escalating its investment in all-solid-state battery technology.

A Chinese local media outlet, Late Post, has reported that the company aims to achieve small-scale volume production of its all-solid-state battery by 2027.

 

 

 

Yeah, I find his channel as annoying as the shouty all caps anti Chinese EV propaganda ones. His is an annoying pro EV shouty all caps channel, although better informed. Still find him annoying though and don't watch his videos anymore.

[KhunLA]

When you get to the point of no further R&D on a product, and now time to put it through trials, that's a pretty good sign it will be on it's way to mass production soon.

 

Once you crack that, then you got something to work with & improve.  If CATL states they are there (they aren't Toyota), then we should probably see them in cars in 2027, maybe.

 

[Pib]

See weblink for full story

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/motoring/2902652/chinas-ev-sector-reaches-10-million-production-milestone-overcapacity-fears-deepen

 

PUBLISHED : 15 Nov 2024 at 09:26

WRITER: South China Morning Post

 

Quote

 

China's EV sector reaches 10 million production milestone, overcapacity fears deepen
 

China's electric vehicle (EV) sector reached yet another milestone as annual production volume surpassed the 10-million-unit threshold amid mounting worries about overcapacity.

 

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, an industry consortium backed by the government, announced that the 10 millionth EV rolled off the production line on Thursday, an increase of 4.3% from the same period last year, and beating the 2023 production seven weeks before the year's end. CAAM did not name the carmaker.

 

While the rising production reflects China's prowess in the EV industry and domestic consumers' increasing interest in green and smart vehicles, it has also raised fears of excess capacity in the mainland's automotive sector where petrol-powered vehicles are shunned by buyers.

 

 

 

[KhunLA]

11 minutes ago, Pib said:

See weblink for full story.

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/motoring/2902652/chinas-ev-sector-reaches-10-million-production-milestone-overcapacity-fears-deepen

Don't think any of these makers will be closing up shop anytime soon.  As seem to have perfected their marketing, domestic and or international.  Along with a few being state owned, and domestic profits isn't their goal, so can undercut pricing of competitors, especially on the international market, and still make a nice profit, while building, dominating market share.

source 

 

[Pib]

Good article today/18 Nov 2024 in the Bangkok Post about issues affecting EV industry and actually the ICEV industry also such as sluggish sales for various reasons.   Reasons such as slow economic growth, high household debt, and an ongoing vehicles price war.  An ongoing price war which makes people reluctant to buy a new vehicle right now (i.e., buy/finance this month only to find out next month's promotion significantly lowers the vehicle's price).

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/motoring/2904017/raft-of-issues-hindering-ev-industry

Raft of issues hindering EV industry

 

 

[atpeace]

On 11/12/2024 at 4:05 PM, UWEB said:

I don't see this guy as reliable source of information, he is just blasting out a lot of b.s. without any proof of verification from where the information is coming from. If you ask in the comment section of his Videos you never get an answer.

Agree, seems like a grifter.  Still watch some of his videos though.  Just take everything with a grain of salt.

[atpeace]

On 11/11/2024 at 8:16 AM, KhunLA said:

 

I think he is right about LFP batteries.  Just beat them up within reason and by the time they might go bad, there will be much better battery tech at lower prices.  I charge my LFP batteries to 100% everyday with solar and at that low charge rate the damage is minuscule for LFP.  Bigger risk to charge to 80% and letting your batterie cells get out of balance.  Hence the Tesla recommendation to 100% charge their LFP EVs.

[atpeace]

On 11/18/2024 at 10:10 AM, Pib said:

Good article today/18 Nov 2024 in the Bangkok Post about issues affecting EV industry and actually the ICEV industry also such as sluggish sales for various reasons.   Reasons such as slow economic growth, high household debt, and an ongoing vehicles price war.  An ongoing price war which makes people reluctant to buy a new vehicle right now (i.e., buy/finance this month only to find out next month's promotion significantly lowers the vehicle's price).

 

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/motoring/2904017/raft-of-issues-hindering-ev-industry

Raft of issues hindering EV industry

 

 

Not a banner year for the auto industry. As stated in the article car manufacturing is down 17% but on the bright side the article states a slight growth of about 5% for EVs. In this environment it is surprising EV manufacturing is still expected to increase.  I thought Thailand EV sales would surely drop without the incentives and the slow economy.

[vinny41]

3 hours ago, atpeace said:

Not a banner year for the auto industry. As stated in the article car manufacturing is down 17% but on the bright side the article states a slight growth of about 5% for EVs. In this environment it is surprising EV manufacturing is still expected to increase.  I thought Thailand EV sales would surely drop without the incentives and the slow economy.

Currently YOY ev registrations for 2024 for period 1st January 2024 to 31st October 2024 are 59,327 an increase of 2.159% over same period in 2023

 ev registrations for same period 2023 numbers are 58,074

EV sales for the whole of 2023 was approx 90,000

EV sales for 2024 currently are 45,674 

We will have to wait and see if 45,000 ev are sold between November 1st and 31st December 2024

problem I see if your buying a new car that costs B1 million baht do you buy when launched at B1 million or do you wait for 1st priice reduction after 7-8 months and buy at B750,000 or do you wait for 15 months and buy at 50% price reduction of B500,000 

https://autolifethailand.tv/total-ev-bev-register-2023-thailand/

https://autolifethailand.tv/ev-register-oct-2024-thailand/

[HighPriority]

Vinny, or do you never buy one and miss out on the benefits ?

[JBChiangRai]

7 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Currently YOY ev registrations for 2024 for period 1st January 2024 to 31st October 2024 are 59,327 an increase of 2.159% over same period in 2023

 ev registrations for same period 2023 numbers are 58,074

EV sales for the whole of 2023 was approx 90,000

EV sales for 2024 currently are 45,674 

We will have to wait and see if 45,000 ev are sold between November 1st and 31st December 2024

problem I see if your buying a new car that costs B1 million baht do you buy when launched at B1 million or do you wait for 1st priice reduction after 7-8 months and buy at B750,000 or do you wait for 15 months and buy at 50% price reduction of B500,000 

https://autolifethailand.tv/total-ev-bev-register-2023-thailand/

https://autolifethailand.tv/ev-register-oct-2024-thailand/

Perhaps you could quote market shares instead of absolute numbers, they we can see buyer behavior.

[vinny41]

5 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

Perhaps you could quote market shares instead of absolute numbers, they we can see buyer behavior.

Sorry No can do  and buyer behavior or market share  doesn't sell cars

going forward I think the Chinese EV Brands are going to have to rethink how they sell cars

Maybe one solution would be a  Guaranteed Future Value based on part costs

so you take the 20 most expensive parts of a new EV and the brand offers you a GFV value taking into account wear and tear useage etc etc

[JBChiangRai]

Vinny, you can post absolute numbers but you’re incapable of researching percentages?

 

I believe EV market share has grown massively and ICE market share has declined massively.

 

I thought you might be capable enough to extrapolate those figure, apparently, I’m wrong. Perhaps someone more capable will do that.

[vinny41]

Just now, JBChiangRai said:

Vinny, you can post absolute numbers but you’re incapable of researching percentages?

 

I believe EV market share has grown massively and ICE market share has declined massively.

 

I thought you might be capable enough to extrapolate those figure, apparently, I’m wrong. Perhaps someone more capable will do that.

I was always told if you want something done do it yourself

You want to know market share to support your beliefs even when the absolute numbers on the door show a different view

meanwhile a new EV Factory in Thailand has been put on hold

Read More: https://www.kaohooninternational.com/markets/548215

 

[JBChiangRai]

Vinny, you’re nothing more than an old troll peddling misinformation.

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, HighPriority said:

Vinny, or do you never buy one and miss out on the benefits ?

Here an idea you walk into your car dealership you looking for a new car

the salesman offers you 3 sealed envelopes

envelope 1 shows the current market price

envelope 2 shows the price after the 1st price reduction because the car isn't selling in the numbers that the brand require

envelope 3 show the price after the 2nd price reduction 

Now if you absoutely need a new car next week or next month people will be forced to go with envelope 1

the others will more than likely walk out of the door and wait for envelope 2 or envelope 3 pricing

[vinny41]

1 minute ago, JBChiangRai said:

Vinny, you’re nothing more than an old troll peddling misinformation.

Where is the misinformation. and I believe from a mod post becuase people don't agree with your views doesn't mean they are trolls

 

I provided link for current ev registrations January to October 2024

and the whole of 2023

look at the 2023 link look at the total number of EV registrations remove the November and December figures and you have total number of ev registrations for the period of January to October 2023

then compared that with the 2024 link that shows total number of ev registrations for the period of January to October 2024 that is how you reach a YOY % increase of 2.159% difference between 2023 and 2024

 

[JBChiangRai]

7 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Where is the misinformation. and I believe from a mod post becuase people don't agree with your views doesn't mean they are trolls

 

I provided link for current ev registrations January to October 2024

and the whole of 2023

look at the 2023 link look at the total number of EV registrations remove the November and December figures and you have total number of ev registrations for the period of January to October 2023

then compared that with the 2024 link that shows total number of ev registrations for the period of January to October 2024 that is how you reach a YOY % increase of 2.159% difference between 2023 and 2024

 

Yada, Yada,Yada

[KhunLA]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

Here an idea you walk into your car dealership you looking for a new car

the salesman offers you 3 sealed envelopes

envelope 1 shows the current market price

envelope 2 shows the price after the 1st price reduction because the car isn't selling in the numbers that the brand require

envelope 3 show the price after the 2nd price reduction 

Now if you absoutely need a new car next week or next month people will be forced to go with envelope 1

the others will more than likely walk out of the door and wait for envelope 2 or envelope 3 pricing

The fact that you are actually at the dealer, should mean, you've done all your research, compared specs, and whittled down your choices, and simply verifying the info you found online.   

 

Get some hands on, see if you actually fit in the vehicle, ease of getting in/out of.  Inspect the quality of the fit & finish.  And most important, count them cup holders & USB ports 

 

Along with getting the best price ... now.

 

#2 ... do you really want a car that isn't selling ?

 

#3 ... price war is over, so you delayed, and your 'trade in' lost value

#3 ... govt incentives no longer extended to end customer, already happening, or not as much

#3 ... govt incentive fund empty, and not renewed, and missed out completely, now all back to original MSRP .... OUCH

 

When I walk into a dealer, I'm ready to buy, not thinking about it, or I would simply be wasting my time & theirs.  

 

Dealers I wouldn't even bother with in TH

... VW, untrustworthy, submit vehicles for testing, then produce inferior products

... Toyota, untrustworthy, see above

... Suzuki, may not be around too much longer

... Nissan, also may not be around too much longer

... Honda, dealer rep precedes them, full of themselves

... Ford, why bother, buy the Mazda instead, except for trucks

... Mazda , limited & terrible dealership support

... not familiar enough with rest to form opinion

 

Full disclosure ... I wouldn't bother with any ICEV or hybrid (complicated ICE upgrade)

 

My choices of BEV dealers with decent history, selection, dealer network (established or getting there)

... MG

... BYD

... GWM

... Tesla, if living in Krung Thep

 

 

[JBChiangRai]

3 hours ago, vinny41 said:

I was always told if you want something done do it yourself

You want to know market share to support your beliefs even when the absolute numbers on the door show a different view

meanwhile a new EV Factory in Thailand has been put on hold

Read More: https://www.kaohooninternational.com/markets/548215

 

I took this graphic from the EV Club Thailand group on Facebook.

 

It’s fairly clear EV market share is increasing substantially and this can only mean the ICE market share is decreasing.  
 

I thought I better post it as it’s clear young Vinny is either not able or capable.

 

 

[KhunLA]

4 hours ago, vinny41 said:

meanwhile a new EV Factory in Thailand has been put on hold

Read More: https://www.kaohooninternational.com/markets/548215

No surprise there, as they were primarily going to produce the Neta s.   Since CN put a hold on that, would seem silly for TH to do it on their own.  Without the Neta, makes sense to wait & see, before diving into battery production, as image that would have been for the Neta s also.

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

I took this graphic from the EV Club Thailand group on Facebook.

 

It’s fairly clear EV market share is increasing substantially and this can only mean the ICE market share is decreasing.  
 

I thought I better post it as it’s clear young Vinny is either not able or capable.

 

 

I think you must be smoking something strong if you  think  the EV market share is increasing substantially based on those numbers I don't think the EV brand manufacturers would agree with you since if demand was outstripping supply I am not aware of any industry that if demand was greater than supply would feel the need to resort to price reductions to increase their sales

As previously stated many times before EV were available ICEV had 100% market share so it only takes to sell 1 EV for ICE vehicles market share  to be  decreasing.  

As for your request to do the research I chosed the option if you want the figures you should provide them yourself and you would have found it takes a lot of time and effort

where looking at 2 links from 2023 and 2024 on Ev registrations took approx 2 minutes