If war breaks out in Ukraine, what do you think will be the impact on your expat life in Thailand?

[OneMoreFarang]

Little to no impact.

Who wants war? Will the USA or anybody in Europe fight with the Ukrainians against Russia? I don't think so.

They will all talk a lot and maybe there will be sanctions against Russia and all that.

But at the end of the day I think the question is: Who really cares about Ukraine? Anyone? Obviously they all have to pretend Ukraine is super important and independent and all that. But is it?

Which president and prime minister is willing to send soldiers to Ukraine to fight the Russians? Anybody?

My prediction: Not much will happen. And nobody will really care because people in "the west" are fed up with wars.

[EVENKEEL]

23 minutes ago, steven100 said:

so sorry MisterTee your honor, .....

nil ......  I can still buy my booze at 7-11    

I just bought mine as well

[ozimoron]

11 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

The stock market hits were priced in last week. 

 

It is equally likely to create a...  'there was an invasion and the stock market went up????' reaction from many... 

Possibly not.

 

"The market is reacting because an actual invasion has not yet been priced in," said Michael Farr of Farr, Miller and Washington LLC. "The severity of an invasion, if one occurs, will correlate to the severity of the market’s reaction."

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-investors-expect-more-volatility-ukraine-concerns-spook-markets-2022-02-11/

[KhunBENQ]

35 minutes ago, BostonRob2 said:

The value of my mother in law's gold chain will go up creating widespread family happiness.

My little bag of will also go up.

Np compensation for the Euro to collapse further.

Less money, higher prices, more trouble with supply chains.

If someone is high above,sitting on a pile of money he might well say "irrelevant to me".

For flying to/from Europe maybe another extra flight time. Even bigger detour.

Edited February 13, 2022 by KhunBENQ

[Jingthing]

To repeat.

 

This NOT a POLITICAL discussion topic. 

This is NOT the place to express pro Russian or pro Ukraine / NATO / Western feelings.

This is NOT the place to make predictions about what will happen there, as in war or no war. etc.

[opalred]

my age i couldn't give a f...k

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, MJCM said:

In my home country, they are already paying record prices for Fuel! And no end in sight!

Well records can still be broken. ????

[steven100]

36 minutes ago, opalred said:

my age i couldn't give a f...k

well,  at least your honest  ....   Lol

 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by steven100

[Kinnock]

Gold price will go up.

 

And when the bars finally open, many stools will be empty as all the retired SAS, Navy Seals and Spetznaz warriors will have been recalled to active service.

[SunnyinBangrak]

If Russia invades the Ukraine on Wednesday as MSM is saying will happen it will be the 1st time in about 4 years they have got a major story correct concerning Russia, so that will have some impact on my life. But still, I guess the chance of an invasion is 0.00001% and they are completely wrong again and using the invasion hysteria to distract from devastating problems in the homeland.

 

More interesting would be what impact it will have on those who take everything they read as gospel and then thursday rolls around and nothing happened. Will they have a moment of reflection? Will they start to consider the logic behind far fetched scenarios presented rather than blindly believe? Will the word "credible" start to be used to mean factually correct rather than simply favoring the PC side with no thought to factual accuracy?

 

IF, and it is a major IF, Russia actually does invade the Ukraine, the US will retaliate with sanctions and probably the fool in charge will run his mouth off again and nuclear warbirds will start getting chucked around, and we will end up being piles of dust. But at least there would not be politically incorrect tweets. 

[scubascuba3]

If they coincided the invasion with the opening of agogo bars proper then i think we won't care anymore

Edited February 13, 2022 by scubascuba3

[Hummin]

3 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

If they coincided the invasion with the opening of agogo bars proper then i think we won't care anymore

If the flow of cash from west stopped, no gogo

Edited February 13, 2022 by Hummin

[dj230]

I actually thought about this, I am assuming the spike in oil is going to cause inflation to go up globally, kind of well timed for a recession given the current global economy as well. 

 

I sold all my stocks last week in anticipation for a few things coming up, one being the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine, put all my money back in gold but will be switching back to stocks soon after the invasion most likely. 

 

If Russia does invade, that causes another issue with the current federal reserve in USA, they're supposed to decide how they'll raise interest rates, with inflation accelerating due to a Ukraine invasion from Russia, they may not be able to skip raising interest rates like some contrarian economists are hoping for.

Edited February 13, 2022 by dj230

[scubascuba3]

34 minutes ago, Hummin said:

If the flow of cash from west stopped, no gogo

why would the flow of cash from the west stop?

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, ozimoron said:

Possibly not.

which is why I said 'equally likely' 

[ozimoron]

7 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

which is why I said 'equally likely' 

Those were my words, the article I quoted was less ambivalent. Make an effort to quote in full please.

Edited February 13, 2022 by ozimoron

[tgw]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

You may have been flip with that, but yeah there would lots of Ukrainian refugees globally, but any hoping to flee to Thailand would need to go through those difficult Covid era Thai immigration hoops. There is no way Thailand will be accepting them as formal refugees. So really I wouldn't expect a war there to result in a noticeable increase in Ukrainians here.

probably not.

 

If Russia invades, I expect them to "generously" limit themselves to Donetsk and Lughansk oblasts, or the current de-facto borders of Lugansk and Donetsk republics, where the majority of the population is of Russian nationality (don't get confused, Russian nationality but Ukrainian citizenship).

So if this scenario plays out, the "invasion" will be done without combat, since the aforementioned territories are already under Russian control and they would meet no resistance at all.

 

Western media maintain radio silence on this fact - the population of these regions of Ukraine is in its large majority Russian.

 

And this is also the official legitimization of Russia's territorial claims. Little mother Russia wants to protect its children that are being oppressed by evil nazi-nationalist Ukrainian extremists. In reality, Russia wants to add these regions with rich agriculture and industry to its dominion and therefore fomented separatist plots and supports separatists with weapons and personnel.

 

Russia ideally also needs a casus belli, that's why it has been orchestrating various media campaigns and possibly false flag operations.

 

as a consequence, if the Russian invasion is limited to these regions, I expect there won't be a big refugee wave, since most Russians with Ukrainian passports won't object too much to having that new sheriff in town, and those who do will find a new place to live in the rest of Ukraine.

the loss of these 2 regions won't be fatal for Ukraine, but will clearly demonstrate how weak the West is.

 

Then referendums will be held. The 2 republics Lughansk and Donetsk will vote to be independent or attached to Russia. Same as in Crimea. The end.

 

so for expats in Thailand, nothing will change.

Edited February 13, 2022 by tgw

[tgw]

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

This is NOT the place to make predictions about what will happen there, as in war or no war. etc.

difficult to make predictions on what happens here without conjecturing what happens there.

domino-effect.

[Kinnock]

I think Russia should invade Taiwan in return for China invading Ukraine.  That would keep the policians busy for years trying to figure out who to sanction for what.

[NancyL]

Hubby will spend even more time binge-watching news on TV and online than he does now.  And his Facebook feed will triple as he feels compelled to keep his "friends" informed of the "crisis".  He doesn't realize it, but they're more interested in his photos of flowers and cats taken during his daily walks in Chiang Mai.

[Thunglom]

"

This is NOT the place to make predictions

So what are your concerns/predictions 

 

If there is a war the impact on economies in Europe will be huge - Especially the UK....that means that even if Thailand opens up the numbers visiting will be restricted.

you may also find fighting in the streets in Thailand between the various groups.

Any Russian oligarchs with funds in in Europe may find that they haven't any money anymore

 

China is backing Russia. If Thailand follows China then there will be repercussions for EU - Thai relations and trade may get interrupted.... apart from tourism, that would be electronics and the moro industry. They my also find themselves outbidded on imports of fuel.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Thunglom

[yogi yogi]

4 hours ago, thainet said:

Other than not so many Russians or Ukrainians visiting Pattaya, why would it impact our expat life here.

Bit of a silly thread topic really.

will russia play ukraine in the olympics

[mtls2005]

53 minutes ago, tgw said:

if the Russian invasion is limited to these regions

This seems like the best possible outcome, provided some invasion is made.

 

But some analysts say it is likely Russia will annex all the territory east of the Dnepr.

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine

 

 

57 minutes ago, tgw said:

Russia ideally also needs a casus belli

This is why the bizarre claim of Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu posted on the Kremlin’s official website of American mercenaries preparing a “provocation” with chemical weapons in Ukraine is ominous and might foreshadow just the type of “incident” the Kremlin would prepare.

 

same source

[bkk6060]

No impact the whole thing would be over in 2 days.

[JustAnotherHun]

4 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Who really cares about Ukraine? Anyone?

Joe Biden and his son?

[StayinThailand2much]

Could be positive for me.

[StayinThailand2much]

51 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

No impact the whole thing would be over in 2 days.

Agree. I don't think, Putin wants the whole Ukraine. Even IF there was a war, it would be limited to "incorporating" a few square miles in the pro-Russian east. But even this is very risky for Russia; not because of NATO, but because of long-term economical implications.

[Hummin]

6 hours ago, thainet said:

Other than not so many Russians or Ukrainians visiting Pattaya, why would it impact our expat life here.

Bit of a silly thread topic really.

Consequences of an escalating war where Thailand again have to choose side. Who do you believe they will choose this time? Submarines or the Fighter jet planes they never will be allowed to have! 

 

We are talking about Chinese subs, and F-35 jets from USA.

[rbkk]

Russian hackers could stop or interupt the internet. Thai wives are shaking in their shoes at the prospect of thousands of Farangs having to stop typing and start speaking to them!

[Jingthing]

24 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Could be positive for me.

How?