Don't mention the war?

[thaibeachlovers]

10 hours ago, billd766 said:

And he is just a troll.

He has no facts.

He has no links.

He just makes up anything he wants and posts it.

He thrives on any responses he gets.

 

He has been on my ignore list for a while, and I only see his posts if somebody in a thread responds to him, and I usually skip over his part.

Given it's an opinion forum, that's OK by me. Sure beats the stuff coming out of some posters.

[KhaoYai]

9 hours ago, Lacessit said:

I'm optimistic common sense will prevail, and someone will take out Putin if/when he gives the order. That's what Mutual Assured Destruction is all about, no-one wins.

I wish I could be so optimistic.  Putin has planned this over many years. He wants Ukraine back in the bosom of the 'motherland'.  The stories about this war being started because of Ukraine's bid to join NATO and that being a threat to Russia are plain rubbish. they already have 2 NATO countries on their borders and if they take Ukraine completely they'll have a lot more.  The reason Putin doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO is because if it did, it would be lost to him.

 

To enable support for his plans, He's created a parallel reality over many years, created a myth that the whole world, especially the US, are out to destroy Russia.  The Russian state controls the media, any credible opposition are either poisoned or sent to prison on trumped up charges or both. Putin has also created a culture of fear within his own government. To secure his own future and therefore achieve his aims, he managed to change Russia's constituion to allow him to run for election for 2 more 6 year terms - the results of those elections are a forgone conclusion. Whilst he was doing all that he's made sure that those closest to him amassed massive wealth through corruption - who was ever going to question him? People disappear in Russia or die of some wierd illness that cannot be detected a few days later.  I very much doubt that anyone will be allowed close enough to him to 'take him out'.

 

I believe the chances of this turning into a larger conflict and going nuclear are quite high, however, it is also possible that Putin will try to retain the areas he's taken already and the 2 Russian speaking areas and let things lie for a while - telling the Russian people he's succeeded in what he set out to do.  I doubt that will be the end of it though - just like he did in 2014 when he took Crimea, he'll start it off again in a few years time.  He cannot be seen to have failed, if he does, he's finshed and there's a very strong chance that eventually, the truth about what has actually been happening will be revealed. The brainwashed Russian population won't change their views overnight but they might move slowly if Putin's somehow toppled.

 

The BBC regularly put out excerpts from Russian TV and media - revealing the narrative that's being spun in Russia. The Russian military has not of course, hit any civillian targets, it hasn't bombed apartment blocks, it hasn't murdered anyone in Bucha nor has it shelled any hospitals, schools or theatres in other areas. It certainly didn'launch missiles at a Railway station this weekend. Russian TV shows their soldiers handing out chocolate to kids, food and warm clothes to their parents.  To people who live in the free world with free speech and an independent media, the Russian lies are laughable - childlike even, if only the subject matt wasn't in reality, very dark. Yet, because of the time Putin has spent creating his parallel reality - it appears the majority of Russians think its all true.

 

It is therefore, not surprising that Putin's approval ratings have soared to 83% since he invaded Ukraine to carry out his 'Special Military Operation' and liberate Ukraine from the Nazis ????

 

In my opinion, NATO have got this completely wrong.  They are relying on crippling sanctions rather than military intervention - remember the Treaty of Versailles and what that resulted in?  Russia is now more isolated than ever, they may cease their actions in the short term but they are highly unlikely to return any territories they have gained. In that case the sanctions will continue and the Russian economy will virtually collapse.  However, just as Germany did as a result of the Treaty of Versailles, Russia will spend as long as need be building up their military capability and then lash out.

 

If a war is not fought now, our kids will have to fight it in the future and just as happened in 1939, they will be fighting an enemy that is very well prepared.  The Treaty of Vesailles created Hitler and the German people were carried along by his paranoia.  Crippling sanctions will create the same situation with Putin and the Russians. The West did nothing when Russia took Crimea and here we are, just 7 years later, Putin's back for another slice of the cake.  He doesn't appear to have done so well in his objectives so far but watch where things go now as a refreshed and regrouped Russian army fights to take Donetsk and Luhansk in the coming days/weeks.  Putin must win those regions and the destroyed city of Mariupol to create a land corridor through to Crimea or he's finished.  What will he stoop to next to save his neck? Nukes? Chemicals?

 

At the moment the West is hoping that if they supply Ukraine with more and more weapons, they can sort this out themselves.  Its not just Ukraine's war, its Europe's war and a war to preserve democracy in the free world.  The Ukrainian military seems to have done amazingly well so far but I think their next task will be a completely different matter.

[thaibeachlovers]

21 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

If a war is not fought now, our kids will have to fight it in the future and just as happened in 1939, they will be fighting an enemy that is very well prepared.  The Treaty of Vesailles created Hitler and the German people were carried along by his paranoia.  Crippling sanctions will create the same situation with Putin and the Russians. The West did nothing when Russia took Crimea and here we are, just 7 years later,

The difference between now and 1939 is nukes. They change everything.

 

You are right about sanctions, but IMO the west is no longer powerful, because we stopped being strong and ruthless sometime ago, so sanctions are probably all we have now. Now it's all about social media and gender and wokeness, and IMO we are on the same decline as Rome was before a strong people crushed it.

Can you even imagine the western youth of today fighting in a conventional war? 55555.

In 1939, the people had just come out of a crippling depression and were hard, now we are a soft and obese people that can't even wind our car windows up ourselves.

 

The longer this war continues, the harder it's going to be to recover. We are IMO already ruined financially by covid, and this may finish us. Al Jazeera reported a 17% increase in world food prices 2 days ago, and it's not going to be going down again any time soon, Inflation is going to be the real problem for us IMO, not a conflict in the Ukraine, though the war may make it worse.

Edited April 10, 2022 by thaibeachlovers

[Lacessit]

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

The longer this war continues, the harder it's going to be to recover. We are IMO already ruined financially by covid, and this may finish us. Al Jazeera reported a 17% increase in world food prices 2 days ago, and it's not going to be going down again any time soon, Inflation is going to be the real problem for us IMO, not a conflict in the Ukraine, though the war may make it worse.

You may be right, but the only price inflation I have seen in Thailand is the cost of gasoline and pork.. All the foodstuffs I buy at the local markets are the same price, or cheaper in season.

Condo rentals and ownership costs AFAIK are heading south, not north.

If you think recovery is going to be hard, the Russians are going to find it even harder. Their economy is wrecked, and if they default on debt in the next month, the ruble will go even further down the toilet. The only businesses that will deal with them will be Chinese, and they will be turning the screws hard.

I think you underestimate the impact the loss of all those "soft" Western technologies will have, half their commercial aircraft will be cannibalized for parts in the coming year.

 

The nightmare of all dictators is when their people turn on them. Just ask Mussolini, Ceausescu and Ghaddafi.

Inflation would actually suit me, after years of getting SFA return on investments.

[Nojohndoe]

11 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

You may be right, but the only price inflation I have seen in Thailand is the cost of gasoline and pork.. All the foodstuffs I buy at the local markets are the same price, or cheaper in season.

Condo rentals and ownership costs AFAIK are heading south, not north.

If you think recovery is going to be hard, the Russians are going to find it even harder. Their economy is wrecked, and if they default on debt in the next month, the ruble will go even further down the toilet. The only businesses that will deal with them will be Chinese, and they will be turning the screws hard.

I think you underestimate the impact the loss of all those "soft" Western technologies will have, half their commercial aircraft will be cannibalized for parts in the coming year.

 

The nightmare of all dictators is when their people turn on them. Just ask Mussolini, Ceausescu and Ghaddafi.

Inflation would actually suit me, after years of getting SFA return on investments.

IMO there is an almost deliberate avoidance of the overall implications created by the sanctions. Despite the best attempts to make it true the "whole world" is  not aligned to the US led NATO stance or to to Putin's . Even the graphics of slaughter and destruction have less than desired impact on a world that has been endlessly inundated with such for decades creating an awareness of the hypocrisy in adamant demands over the Ukraine.

Russia will most definitely suffer even more regardless of outcome in Ukraine but if Putin shuts of the energy supply to the EU so will it.

IMO there is some serious grounds to suggest that the US is now in an accelerated loss of dominance via the $. They, and others, are dipping  deeply into strategic oil reserves with the assurance they will be restored "in good time" while also making  plans to support Europe with energy demands . The UAE  and Saudi Arabia are currently  exercising their own strategy . Suggestions that the US should punish them while cracks in Middle Eastern ties are becoming very evident would strike me as being counter productive at best !

The very real danger is that in the attempt to re-establish control of the game the US will create yet another bogus excuse to initiate it's own "special operation" ! They usually culminate with a long list of atrocities of their own.

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, Nojohndoe said:

The very real danger is that in the attempt to re-establish control of the game the US will create yet another bogus excuse to initiate it's own "special operation" ! They usually culminate with a long list of atrocities of their own.

AFAIK any atrocities committed by the US or its allies are usually brought to light by a free press, and followed up on by the judicial system.

Permit me to doubt they are in the same ball park or class as the current Russian war crimes against civilians, or any judicial system will bring the perpetrators to book. The people who shot down MH17 more than 7 years ago are still at large.

[Nojohndoe]

32 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

AFAIK any atrocities committed by the US or its allies are usually brought to light by a free press, and followed up on by the judicial system.

Permit me to doubt they are in the same ball park or class as the current Russian war crimes against civilians, or any judicial system will bring the perpetrators to book. The people who shot down MH17 more than 7 years ago are still at large.

Sadly such atrocities by any and all including the Russians, brought to light or not , tend to avert the application of appropriate justice. It is significant to the fact that it is those countries who are NOT participant in the ICC actively resist co-operation over well documented events !

In cases such as the MH17 despite a well publicized "conclusion" those found responsible were the enablers rather than the "trigger pullers" as such.

Unfortunately the emphasis on atrocities and the exacerbation of tensions in conflict does nothing to  deescalate thereby reduce the opportunity for abuse.

[KhaoYai]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Permit me to doubt they are in the same ball park or class as the current Russian war crimes against civilians, or any judicial system will bring the perpetrators to book. The people who shot down MH17 more than 7 years ago are still at large.

Yes, the UN et al are in cloud cuckoo land if they think that Russia will ever hand over its war criminals for trial - the only way that will ever happen is if there is a much larger conflict, Russia is defeated and an enforced regime change takes place.

[ozimoron]

25 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Yes, the UN et al are in cloud cuckoo land if they think that Russia will ever hand over its war criminals for trial - the only way that will ever happen is if there is a much larger conflict, Russia is defeated and an enforced regime change takes place.

Meantime, he can forget holidays on the Riviera.

[KhaoYai]

3 hours ago, Lacessit said:

AFAIK any atrocities committed by the US or its allies are usually brought to light by a free press, and followed up on by the judicial system.

Hmmmmmm - often with very dubious outcomes - check out the results of the prosecution of those responsible for the My Lai (Meelai) Massacre in Vietnam - for me, the most shocking war crimes of my lifetime. Cover up after cover up - the end result, despite testimony from a US helicopter crew, was just one conviction.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mỹ_Lai_massacre

[Lacessit]

23 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Hmmmmmm - often with very dubious outcomes - check out the results of the prosecution of those responsible for the My Lai (Meelai) Massacre in Vietnam - for me, the most shocking war crimes of my lifetime. Cover up after cover up - the end result, despite testimony from a US helicopter crew, was just one conviction.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mỹ_Lai_massacre

Can't disagree, look what happens at Guantanamo, although those are not exactly innocent civilians.

If the point is to terrify the Ukrainian population, the refugee numbers say the strategy is working. In terms of taking a city, there is potentially death behind every door for the Russians, and they do not seem to have the counter-insurgency skills necessary.

[metisdead]

A post with an unattributed chart and a reply has been removed.  Please provide a valid link to the source of information when posting. 

[Jingthing]

I think there is majority popular support in the west now for NATO to get DIRECTLY involved in defending Ukraine against war criminal Putin IN Ukraine. 

Obviously NATO has held back because of the risk of poking the bear, but it's impossible to know the risk, and clearly it's immoral to just sit back and watch Putin undertake the mass slaughter of Ukrainians with an ideology meant to completely erase the Ukrainian nation with no limits of murdering it's people.

Ukraine in NATO or not, if the west doesn't stand up now, what will it take?

Do we really need to wait until Putin uses chemical weapons or nukes to get the message? 

I wonder how forum members feel about this (discounting the vocal minority of Putinistas or apologists posting here). 

Also NATO direct involvement in Ukraine could and probably should still be short of U.S. direct involvement in Ukraine. US could do support from Europe but adding the risk of direct nuclear power confrontation is probably not even necessary. NATO could easily beat Putin. Why doesn't it? Imagine the tragedy if Putin meets his goals. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Jingthing

[frantick]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

I think there is majority popular support in the west now for NATO to get DIRECTLY involved in defending Ukraine against war criminal Putin IN Ukraine. 

Obviously NATO has held back because of the risk of poking the bear, but it's impossible to know the risk, and clearly it's immoral to just sit back and watch Putin undertake the mass slaughter of Ukrainians with an ideology meant to completely erase the Ukrainian nation with no limits of murdering it's people.

Ukraine in NATO or not, if the west doesn't stand up now, what will it take?

Do we really need to wait until Putin uses chemical weapons or nukes to get the message? 

I wonder how forum members feel about this (discounting the vocal minority of Putinistas or apologists posting here). 

Also NATO direct involvement in Ukraine could and probably should still be short of U.S. direct involvement in Ukraine. US could do support from Europe but adding the risk of direct nuclear power confrontation is probably not even necessary. NATO could easily beat Putin. Why doesn't it? Imagine the tragedy if Putin meets his goals. 

Only the left, war machine, and neo-cons are supporting NATO, ie US, involvement. How quickly they forget what the US did in Iraq. 

 

If China, or Russia, was in talks to defend Canada or Mexico, the US would be exactly where Russia is right now. Yes, I know there are already NATO countries bordering Russia, but access around those countries is still available.

 

And the US wants a pipeline there, and Hunter's and the Big Guy's kickbacks. So I'm sure we'll be at war soon enough unfortunately. 

[Jingthing]

18 minutes ago, frantick said:

Only the left, war machine, and neo-cons are supporting NATO, ie US, involvement. How quickly they forget what the US did in Iraq. 

 

If China, or Russia, was in talks to defend Canada or Mexico, the US would be exactly where Russia is right now. Yes, I know there are already NATO countries bordering Russia, but access around those countries is still available.

 

And the US wants a pipeline there, and Hunter's and the Big Guy's kickbacks. So I'm sure we'll be at war soon enough unfortunately. 

So the U.S. would be invading  Mexico and/or Canada, intentionally slaughtering civilians, and shelling cities to dust? Your analogy is garbage.

 

I think by now there is MAINSTREAM western support across most of the political spectrum to not sit back and watch the slaughter any longer.

 

Yes Ukraine accomplished a miracle in Kyiv, but now it's a new war and repeating that miracle in the east and coast doesn't seem particularly likely. 

 

Of course in the U.S. the FAR right (represented by many MAGAs such as the vile super troll Marjorie Taylor Greene) and the FAR left (represented by types like Glen Greenwald and Oliver Stone) will always be isolationist. 

 

Yes, escalating is a risk but now that the world can see what Putin is all about (as if we didn't already know) that needs to be weighed against the risk of not escalating. 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Jingthing

[ozimoron]

13 minutes ago, frantick said:

Only the left, war machine, and neo-cons are supporting NATO, ie US, involvement. How quickly they forget what the US did in Iraq. 

 

If China, or Russia, was in talks to defend Canada or Mexico, the US would be exactly where Russia is right now. Yes, I know there are already NATO countries bordering Russia, but access around those countries is still available.

 

And the US wants a pipeline there, and Hunter's and the Big Guy's kickbacks. So I'm sure we'll be at war soon enough unfortunately. 

What a joke. Every country in Europe supports NATO. The big guy's kickbacks never existed.

[tgw]

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I think there is majority popular support in the west now for NATO to get DIRECTLY involved in defending Ukraine against war criminal Putin IN Ukraine. 

Obviously NATO has held back because of the risk of poking the bear, but it's impossible to know the risk, and clearly it's immoral to just sit back and watch Putin undertake the mass slaughter of Ukrainians with an ideology meant to completely erase the Ukrainian nation with no limits of murdering it's people.

Ukraine in NATO or not, if the west doesn't stand up now, what will it take?

Do we really need to wait until Putin uses chemical weapons or nukes to get the message? 

I wonder how forum members feel about this (discounting the vocal minority of Putinistas or apologists posting here). 

Also NATO direct involvement in Ukraine could and probably should still be short of U.S. direct involvement in Ukraine. US could do support from Europe but adding the risk of direct nuclear power confrontation is probably not even necessary. NATO could easily beat Putin. Why doesn't it? Imagine the tragedy if Putin meets his goals. 

I have thought about this too, European countries should send troops to Ukraine without placing them under the NATO banner.

 

Problem, article 5 of NATO charter would activate if NATO soldiers (or planes, ships) are attacked anywhere.

 

So I don't know how this could be solved, the troops would have to be officially separated from NATO, maybe similarly to UN's blue helmets. But that's subject to approval by the security council, which can be vetoed by Russia.

 

On one hand, does the whole of Europe (+Canada, USA) want to be at war, at least officially, with Russia ? that would be a big scare.

 

But on the other hand, what could Russia possibly say if Nato was to announce a "special military operation" within a friendly country inviting that operation ?

or lending troops to other countries was a common thing just two centuries back, how about lending fully equipped volunteer NATO units to Ukraine, placing them under Ukrainian command ?

 

I sure would like to see something like this.

A special NATO military operation to pacify eastern Ukraine.

Starting with a no fly zone with policy to attack any active hostile air defense systems.

Edited April 11, 2022 by tgw

[frantick]

18 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

So the U.S. would be invading  Mexico and/or Canada, intentionally slaughtering civilians, and shelling cities to dust? Your analogy is garbage.

 

I think by now there is MAINSTREAM western support across most of the political spectrum to not sit back and watch the slaughter any longer.

 

Yes Ukraine accomplished a miracle in Kyiv, but now it's a new war and repeating that miracle in the east and coast doesn't seem particularly likely. 

 

Of course in the U.S. the FAR right (represented by many MAGAs such as the vile super troll Marjorie Taylor Greene) and the FAR left (represented by types like Glen Greenwald and Oliver Stone) will always be isolationist. 

 

Yes, escalating is a risk but now that the world can see what Putin is all about (as if we didn't already know) that needs to be weighed against the risk of not escalating. 

Yes the US would if they didn't back down. Ever heard of the Cuban missile crisis, or are you to young for that. 

 

Where were all the slaughtering-civilians tears when the "shock and awe" was occurring in Iraq? How quickly we forget. 

[Jingthing]

6 minutes ago, frantick said:

Yes the US would if they didn't back down. Ever heard of the Cuban missile crisis, or are you to young for that. 

 

Where were all the slaughtering-civilians tears when the "shock and awe" was occurring in Iraq? How quickly we forget. 

You're flailing all over the place now.

Let's focus on Putin and Ukraine here as Putin is objectively behaving like Hitler.

[frantick]

27 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

What a joke. Every country in Europe supports NATO. The big guy's kickbacks never existed.

I said support NATO involvement [in the war]. 

 

Remember this last line. We should know in a year or two who is spreading misinformation. 

[Jingthing]

2 minutes ago, frantick said:

I said support NATO involvement [in the war]. 

 

Remember this last line. We should know in a year or two who is spreading misinformation. 

It's Putin.

[frantick]

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

You're flailing all over the place now.

Let's focus on Putin and Ukraine here as Putin is objectively behaving like Hitler.

Hitler didn't have nukes, and we're well prepared if Putin's action go beyond Ukraine. Well, as prepared as a woke fighting force is prepared to go.

[Jingthing]

6 minutes ago, frantick said:

Hitler didn't have nukes, and we're well prepared if Putin's action go beyond Ukraine. Well, as prepared as a woke fighting force is prepared to go.

Woke fighting force?

That's a Russian propaganda talking point which they got from maga rhetoric 

Very revealing.

[Mac Mickmanus]

23 minutes ago, tgw said:

I have thought about this too, European countries should send troops to Ukraine without placing them under the NATO banner.

 

Problem, article 5 of NATO charter would activate if NATO soldiers (or planes, ships) are attacked anywhere.

 

So I don't know how this could be solved, the troops would have to be officially separated from NATO, maybe similarly to UN's blue helmets. But that's subject to approval by the security council, which can be vetoed by Russia.

 

On one hand, does the whole of Europe (+Canada, USA) want to be at war, at least officially, with Russia ? that would be a big scare.

 

But on the other hand, what could Russia possibly say if Nato was to announce a "special military operation" within a friendly country inviting that operation ?

or lending troops to other countries was a common thing just two centuries back, how about lending fully equipped volunteer NATO units to Ukraine, placing them under Ukrainian command ?

 

I sure would like to see something like this.

A special NATO military operation to pacify eastern Ukraine.

Starting with a no fly zone with policy to attack any active hostile air defense systems.

Why do Europe/USA need to get involved ?

Keep out of it, its nothing to do with us and getting involved with exacerbate the situation  

 

[ozimoron]

8 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Why do Europe/USA need to get involved ?

Keep out of it, its nothing to do with us and getting involved with exacerbate the situation 

Nothing to do with Europe? ????

 

Countries like Germany who previusly courted Russia are now moving away from reliance on Russia as fast as they can and giving massive amounts of heavy weaponry to Ukraine. That ship has sailed.

Edited April 11, 2022 by ozimoron

[Mac Mickmanus]

4 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Nothing to do with Europe? ????

Errm , yeah, Western Europe /NATO Countries as opposed to Eastern former Soviet block Countries also on the European continent 

[ozimoron]

Just now, Mac Mickmanus said:

Errm , yeah, Western Europe /NATO Countries as opposed to Eastern former Soviet block Countries also on the European continent 

Which European countries haven't imposed sanctions on Russia?

[Mac Mickmanus]

2 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Which European countries haven't imposed sanctions on Russia?

We are taking about getting involved with the war , sending our armies in to fight the Russian army , sanctions is another topic 

[frantick]

21 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Woke fighting force?

That's a Russian propaganda talking point which they got from maga rhetoric 

Very revealing.

Because Msnbc, The New York Times, and CNN told you. OK. You do know that all these liberal media outlets are pro war, right? 

 

Nothing sells like a good ole war. 

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

We are taking about getting involved with the war , sending our armies in to fight the Russian army , sanctions is another topic 

None of them have backed out of NATO and all of them have asserted that they will fight if Russia attacks any NATO country.

 

"NATO condemns in the strongest possible terms Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine - which is an independent, peaceful and democratic country, and a close NATO partner. The Alliance calls on President Putin to stop this war immediately, withdraw all his forces from Ukraine without conditions and engage in genuine diplomacy."

 

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_192648.htm

 

As the UK's health secretary, Sajid Javid, said only a few days ago in an interview on LBC: “If a single Russian toecap steps into Nato territory there will be war with Nato.”

On February 25, one day after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, Nato heads of government met in Brussels. They produced a statement deploring the invasion and pledging aid for Ukraine.

The alliance pledged to “continue to take all measures and decisions required to ensure the security and defence of all all ..
 

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/what-might-happen-if-russia-ukraine-war-spreads-to-a-nato-country/articleshow/90334645.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst