Concern for the Thai baht and liquidity if Thailand does not move swiftly to raise interest rates

[Sir Dude]

Thailand is a manipulator of its currency, just not in the traditional way. It doesn't manipulate it for the benefit of exports or to attract tourism etc., it does so in the opposite way so that it favours the rich, government, and elites that want to go on foreign buying sprees to buy assets.

Ask yourself a very easy question, and that is regarding who benefits from a strong baht... the 1% and the government/army. That's why it's so resilient/Teflon coated, it's being manipulated but in the opposite way to what people think (very sneaky). Even certain Thai tourists benefit from this in Europe who source their funds from here. People might think it's a conspiracy theory, but if you really know this lot, then it is certainly within the realms of possibility.

It's being held up to benefit the rich and certain individuals... probably through the BoT buying up baht on the markets on the quiet with the blessing of all sorts of the 1%.

When they are all finished feeding, then it will be allowed to drop and and these people will move money back to Thailand so that they can become even richer... rinse and repeat.

[ThailandRyan]

USD to THB now at $1 to 35.26Thb.  Lets see what next week brings.

[KanchanaburiGuy]

3 hours ago, Sir Dude said:

Thailand is a manipulator of its currency, just not in the traditional way. It doesn't manipulate it for the benefit of exports or to attract tourism etc., it does so in the opposite way so that it favours the rich, government, and elites that want to go on foreign buying sprees to buy assets.

Ask yourself a very easy question, and that is regarding who benefits from a strong baht... the 1% and the government/army. That's why it's so resilient/Teflon coated, it's being manipulated but in the opposite way to what people think (very sneaky). Even certain Thai tourists benefit from this in Europe who source their funds from here. People might think it's a conspiracy theory, but if you really know this lot, then it is certainly within the realms of possibility.

It's being held up to benefit the rich and certain individuals... probably through the BoT buying up baht on the markets on the quiet with the blessing of all sorts of the 1%.

When they are all finished feeding, then it will be allowed to drop and and these people will move money back to Thailand so that they can become even richer... rinse and repeat.

Hmmm

 

The rich could make dramatically more on price movement.......... If they know beforehand that it's likely to move........... (which they'd know to some degree if it's being manipulated) .......... than they could ever hope make with the baht merely remaining strong. 

 

Baht is going down, buy up the foreign. Baht gets pushed back up, sell the foreign and buy back the baht. Upward movements make a profit........... downward movements make a profit. 

 

But if it's artificially being kept high, then the rich stand to benefit much less, because the movement has been curtailed. 

 

------------

 

Once had a case where I was staying almost next door to a money exchange at a time when the baht-to-dollar was bouncing like a ping pong ball.

 

Day 1, changed baht to dollars. 

Day 2, changed dollars back to baht. 

Day 3, changed baht back to dollars. 

Day 4, changed dollars back to baht. 

 

On days 2, 3 and 4, I made about 300 baht profit each time. 

 

Altogether, spent maybe 30 minutes altogether walking to and fro, plus a little more for exchange time. Cleared a 900 baht profit, roughly, for less than an hour's effort. Lol

 

Not big money in my case, of course. Small potatoes. 

 

But when you've GOT big money, you don't want the baht fixed high. You want volitility........... so you can skim a little profit again and again and again! A little on the up............ then a little on the down! Then a little on the up......... then a little on the down! 

 

They don't want manipulation to make it easier to buy a big house in Switzerland. They want manipulation so that volitility becomes dramatically more predictable! If they've got THAT........ then the 3rd, 4th, and 5th houses follow the 2nd one pretty quickly! 

 

Cheers! 

Edited June 18, 2022 by KanchanaburiGuy

[StayinThailand2much]

A weaker baht is positive for exports and tourism. It is more negative for import prices.

 

Thailand's aim is to import less, while exporting more. Thailand also wants more international tourists.

 

So, what are they complaining about?

Edited June 19, 2022 by StayinThailand2much

[StayinThailand2much]

13 hours ago, Sir Dude said:

Thailand is a manipulator of its currency, just not in the traditional way. It doesn't manipulate it for the benefit of exports or to attract tourism etc., it does so in the opposite way so that it favours the rich, government, and elites that want to go on foreign buying sprees to buy assets.

That's why they keep those huge foreign currency reserves (per capita about as high as China's) to keep the baht artificially strong.

[ozz1]

Wh the large capital reserves why did they borrow money from Japan something is not right here

[RocketDog]

19 hours ago, david555 said:

"I continue to expatriate my USD as the baht weakens."

 

Strange.... as i am repatriating to Euros , as Thai baht was bought at 47 when i came Thailand 13 years ago and so now my Euroland € is 37 worth so a welcome gift for my repatriating back to My home country ....

 

Strange how some case  can differ from person or nationality but same benefit   ????????

 

You benefit from your $ rising  and i from my Euro sliding down against Teflon Baht

If I was earning money in America as a worker getting cost of living increases, the 10% inflation wouldn't affect me as much. As a retiree however, inflation just corrides my savings. So buying baht makes sense for me, up to a limit. At this point I have enough baht to pay for life in the Kingdom until my demise, barring catastrophic medical bills. It makes sense to play the FX game for now.

 

But eventually all fiat currency will follow the USD down the tubes and that's where tangible assets come in. Those can be procured here much easier than in USA and with no tax trail.

[Iamfalang]

I'm keeping with my prediction of 50 THB to 1 USD.

 

50 is a very, very conservative number.

 

65 is possible.   I am 100% sure, sorry.   or not sorry, thank me with money.  

[Baron Samedi]

It's all gravy in the navy.

THB appreciated against the USD.

Thailand bought a lot of USD.

Now THB is going down and Thailand will sell its USD to finance its recovery.

And because the THB is gonna drop, recovery will be faster.

Who said the markets weren't socialist in essence ?

 

[RocketDog]

3 hours ago, Iamfalang said:

I'm keeping with my prediction of 50 THB to 1 USD.

 

50 is a very, very conservative number.

 

65 is possible.   I am 100% sure, sorry.   or not sorry, thank me with money.  

Do your predictions comes from dreams or your dreams from predictions?

Either way, I hope you're correct.

I am sincerely interested in hearing the top three reasons for your thoughts though.

 

That stong a dollar or that weak a baht would signal huge global economic dislocations it seems to me.

[StayinThailand2much]

6 hours ago, RocketDog said:

But eventually all fiat currency will follow the USD down the tubes and that's where tangible assets come in. Those can be procured here much easier than in USA and with no tax trail.

You're lucky that your home currency is the US$. If all other assets go down the drain, dollars are what people will keep buying.

[RocketDog]

22 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

You're lucky that your home currency is the US$. If all other assets go down the drain, dollars are what people will keep buying.

If all others assets (metals, real-estate, art, collectibles) go down the drain then paper will surely be worthless.

[ThailandRyan]

46 minutes ago, RocketDog said:

If all others assets (metals, real-estate, art, collectibles) go down the drain then paper will surely be worthless.

Looks like my bag of diamonds may be worth something in the end, as well as all the rubies in the safe.

[KanchanaburiGuy]

Ah, let's never forget the only thing that gives money its value. And by "money" I mean.......... paper money, precious metals, diamonds, art, possessions and property, and on and on. Because at the cold heart of it all, everything is just "money!" 

 

So, what's the only thing that gives money its value? 

 

The only thing......... the ONLY thing........... that gives money its value............ is that the person on the receiving end.............. believes it has value! 

 

However much one might have tried to secure themselves............. if they haven't secured a buyer who values what they have in the same ways they do............. they haven't necessarily created much security for themselves, at all! 

 

For example : Gold may prove to be no more valuable than aluminum or or copper............ when what's needed more than anything............ is steel to build warships! Gold sure is pretty............. but it makes a lousy building material! ????????????

 

Cheers! 

[ThailandRyan]

20 minutes ago, KanchanaburiGuy said:

Ah, let's never forget the only thing that gives money its value. And by "money" I mean.......... paper money, precious metals, diamonds, art, possessions and property, and on and on. Because at the cold heart of it all, everything is just "money!" 

 

So, what's the only thing that gives money its value? 

 

The only thing......... the ONLY thing........... that gives money its value............ is that the person on the receiving end.............. believes it has value! 

 

However much one might have tried to secure themselves............. if they haven't secured a buyer who values what they have in the same ways they do............. they haven't necessarily created much security for themselves, at all! 

 

For example : Gold may prove to be no more valuable than aluminum or or copper............ when what's needed more than anything............ is steel to build warships! Gold sure is pretty............. but it makes a lousy building material! ????????????

 

Cheers! 

Looks like the 500 rolls of toilet paper I stocked up on will be worth a whole lot when the other funny papers, except the rolling papers, become wortless in your view then......

[KanchanaburiGuy]

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Looks like the 500 rolls of toilet paper I stocked up on will be worth a whole lot when the other funny papers, except the rolling papers, become wortless in your view then......

Nah, not really. I just thought it was worth remembering that security that depends on a particular paradigm........... may not be so secure, ultimately........ if that manufactured one falls apart, and the natural order reappears. 

 

Lol

 

Cheers! 

[david555]

14 hours ago, RocketDog said:

If all others assets (metals, real-estate, art, collectibles) go down the drain then paper will surely be worthless.

The problem with paper is that "they" can print whatever on it ...

 

But  " they can't print Gold "  ????????

[ThailandRyan]

USD at $1 to 35.30 Thb this morning.  lets see where the week takes us.......my interest rates on my savings accounts in the US are rising, slowly, but rising, at 1.1% with my CU.

[Enzian]

19 hours ago, KanchanaburiGuy said:

 

The only thing......... the ONLY thing........... that gives money its value............ is that the person on the receiving end.............. believes it has value! 

You explicitly include property as "money", but an apartment building has value because, short of societal breakdown or regulatory madness, people will keep paying their rent; that's the rule of law, not faith. Not everything works on the model of gold, and the problem with gold, and raw land for example, is it doesn't produce income. People like Buffett mention this all the time.

[KanchanaburiGuy]

1 hour ago, Enzian said:

You explicitly include property as "money", but an apartment building has value because, short of societal breakdown or regulatory madness, people will keep paying their rent; that's the rule of law, not faith. Not everything works on the model of gold, and the problem with gold, and raw land for example, is it doesn't produce income. People like Buffett mention this all the time.

Property can produce income if it's used to produce income. But it is still just "money." Property can be used to buy things............ just like anything else. One guy has a vintage car that's gathering dust; another guy has a piece of land the vintage car guy wants. The car buys the land (money); the land buys the car (money). 

 

But the basic premise underlying money remains the same.......... it only has value if the person receiving it believes it has value. 

 

Will I let my tenant pay his rent in Monopoly Money? ABSOLUTELY........ if...... IF!......... the next guy in the chain will take it from me!

 

If the next guy in the chain believes Monopoly Money has value.......... there's no reason for me to refuse to take it as payment. Ah, but if he DOESN'T..........!

 

If you've got stockpiles of gold bars when what people really need is food or gas or clean water.......... you could well turn out to be the poorest guy in the neighborhood! ????????????

 

Cheers! 

 

-------------

 

By the way,

 

I've never read anything by Warren Buffet except snippets here and there. But what I've seen other "experts" say about property is this............ 

 

Never consider property you buy for your own residence............ an "investment." It should be placed on the liability side of your balance sheet, not the asset side. That's because, as your residence, it creates expenses, not income! 

 

If you sell it later for a profit----income----or move out and turn it into an income-producing property........... THEN you can slide it across the page to the assets column! 

 

Not having read Buffet, I can't be sure. But I suspect he said something like this......... NOT......... that property doesn't/can't produce income. 

 

Cheers! 

 

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by KanchanaburiGuy

[Enzian]

16 hours ago, KanchanaburiGuy said:

 

But the basic premise underlying money remains the same.......... it only has value if the person receiving it believes it has value. 

I actually agree with you in the abstract and it leads to one of those philosophic issues, that living in the world we must act (not acting is a form of action), and we must act based on imperfect and incomplete information. We must as "as if" things will continue as they are, otherwise we're led to nihilism and an inability to do anything. Buffett knew US money is based on nothing but that didn't stop him from trying to make more, and to use it to invest in real things. So your distinction, while true, ultimately has no practical application in life--except to always use caution.

[Excel]

1 minute ago, Enzian said:

I actually agree with you in the abstract and it leads to one of those philosophic issues, that living in the world we must act (not acting is a form of action), and we must act based on imperfect and incomplete information. We must as "as if" things will continue as they are, otherwise we're led to nihilism and an inability to do anything. Buffett knew US money is based on nothing but that didn't stop him from trying to make more, and to use it to invest in real things. So your distinction, while true, ultimately has no practical application in life--except to always use caution.

What a long winded statement that can be summed up as "just be careful"

[KanchanaburiGuy]

3 hours ago, Excel said:

What a long winded statement that can be summed up as "just be careful"

No, actually, it can't. Because if you don't understand WHY you need to be careful and WHAT you need to be careful about........... then you'll be very poorly equipped to decide HOW to be careful! 

 

It's kind of like why Nancy Reagan's "Just Say No" campaign did virtually nothing to curtail drug use. 

 

Bumper-sticker slogans can only be effective AFTER all the explanations have been laid out, as a quickie reminded of already-received, more detailed information................ not instead of! 

[Excel]

14 minutes ago, KanchanaburiGuy said:

It's kind of like why Nancy Reagan's "Just Say No" campaign did virtually nothing to curtail drug use

And what exactly has that to do with this thread ? 

[KanchanaburiGuy]

44 minutes ago, Excel said:

And what exactly has that to do with this thread ? 

Its called an analogy. Analogies are very useful for helping someone understand something they are NOT clear on...............by pointing out something similar that they ARE clear on. 

 

You see, people frequently already have the means to arrive at a correct answer............. they just need to be coaxed to apply those pre-existing means....... to the new situation!

 

That's what analogies do!

 

(The SATs and IQ tests tend to ask a bunch of analogy questions, to gauge education and intellect............ "A is to C, what B is to ____?"............. "A puppy is to a dog, what a ____ is to a cat?"............ If you're good with analogies, these tend to be a breeze. If not.......... well....... that's why they make a bell-shaped curve, isn't it? ????????????)

 

Cheers! 

[Excel]

2 hours ago, KanchanaburiGuy said:

Its called an analogy. Analogies are very useful for helping someone understand something they are NOT clear on...............by pointing out something similar that they ARE clear on. 

 

You see, people frequently already have the means to arrive at a correct answer............. they just need to be coaxed to apply those pre-existing means....... to the new situation!

 

That's what analogies do!

 

(The SATs and IQ tests tend to ask a bunch of analogy questions, to gauge education and intellect............ "A is to C, what B is to ____?"............. "A puppy is to a dog, what a ____ is to a cat?"............ If you're good with analogies, these tend to be a breeze. If not.......... well....... that's why they make a bell-shaped curve, isn't it? ????????????)

 

Cheers! 

I asked what has that got to do with the thread, not what it was. Actually it had FA to do with the thread, just some prejudiced American no doubt attempting to fire bullets at themselves in the mirror. Now that is an analogy ????