Is Bitcoin going to zero?

[Sametboy2019]

If Tether implodes Bitcoin is in serious trouble! If you ever wanted to buy crypto now would be a decent entry point but i expect it to go lower but just incase the prices now are very attractive!

[ericthai]

23 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

Markets move in cycles though. Economic booms and busts produce 7 year cycles. Those impacts alter profits.

 

Higher rates means less consumer spending plus higher debt repayments reduces company profits.

 

1966 crash

1987 cash

2001 dot com crash

2008 gfc

2022 inflation ...crash or correction

 

 

where's the 7 year cycle?

[Sametboy2019]

[Dan O]

3 hours ago, fdsa said:

anonymous money transfers.

instant money transfers without getting your account blocked because of some stupid piece of code in the bank or some lame clerk that does not like you.

There is no value to crypto that's the truth of the matter.  It costs you on every purchase and sale and there is no asset supporting its value. If you think your being anonymous in your transactions you are sadly mistaken because you aren't. 

[Dan O]

3 hours ago, Neeranam said:

I have 10% of my entire assets in non-fungible tokens ????

I don't believe in btc as such but realized its importance in world finance. You don't have to believe in something to invest. 

 

 

That's even a worse risk than crypto but it's your money to lose 

[Hummin]

42 minutes ago, Sametboy2019 said:

If Tether implodes Bitcoin is in serious trouble! If you ever wanted to buy crypto now would be a decent entry point but i expect it to go lower but just incase the prices now are very attractive!

From last time, btc stayed low for 2,5 years before pumping again, why buy already now? And time from highest peak to new high was exectly 3 years and two days. 

 

why will it go faster this time? 
 

 

[Neeranam]

1 hour ago, Dan O said:

That's even a worse risk than crypto but it's your money to lose 

Something tells me you know nothing about NFTs, or crypto for that matter !

 

Why are you anti crypto? I bet you were offered some a few years ago and said no ???? 

 

You do know Bitcoin has been gaining an average of 100% a year? How much do you get on your gold ?

[fdsa]

1 hour ago, Dan O said:

If you think your being anonymous in your transactions you are sadly mistaken because you aren't. 

In Bitcoin blockchain - yes, transactions are not anonymous.

And I actually support this because it helps to legalize crypto businesses and to cashout Bitcoins purchased long time ago.

 

However there are blockchains that are fully anonymous, for example Monero.

[ozimoron]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-20/shell-for-date-tbc-qld-blockchain-jobs-of-the-future-julius-denn/101123884

[Walker88]

12 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Totally off topic. 

Do you think btc is going to zero? 

Don't let your hatred affect your answer. 

When did you first hear of BTC, and not buy it? ????

Totally on topic.

 

Musk is being sued, claiming he was part of a Ponzi re dogecoin. Granted it's a silly suit. He then---not so coincidentally---issues a Tweet saying he is still buying dogecoin. Guaranteed his lawyer will use that to try to get the suit dismissed, and I'd be willing to bet his lawyer advised him to make the Tweet.

 

Also not so coincidentally, that Tweet coincides exactly with the surge in dogecon, bitcoin and ethereum.

 

I don't hate conjured entities. Perhaps you haven't the self-reflection to notice, but you sound like a member of a religion outraged that some blasphemer drew a cartoon of your prophet. You are not alone in expressing that sort of thing, which is why I say a Cult has developed around these things (Mods, my comment is fair)

 

If people want to trade them with each other in a giant game of Old Maid or Musical Chairs, so be it. I do not see the value of any of them, other than as speculative vehicles. Yes, one can make some money trading them, just as one could have made money in the bizzarro world of NFTs like the Bored Monkey Yacht Club. I call crypto a solution in search of a problem. Some folks argue about ease of money transfer.  That is hardly a reason for the things to be worth "trillions". They are too volatile to be of value as a currency, as Elon Musk found out when his finance types undoubtedly told him the $120K equivalent they received in btc for a Tesla on Friday might be worth only $60K by the time they can hedge it. As something to loan, the same issue arises---volatility---plus either anonymity goes out the window, or no credit analysis of a borrower is done. So what does that leave for the things....other than speculation or feeling the comfort of belonging to a cult?

 

Toss in the massive waste of energy 'mining' the things or simply doing a transaction, and crypto are a net negative for the good of society, solving nothing but costing a lot in terms of energy waste.

 

Other folks try to equate blockchain tech with crypto, which is like saying porn is the internet, and thus revolutionary. No, porn is something that uses the internet, just as crypto is something that uses blockchain technology.

 

Folks can knock themselves silly trading these things and convincing themselves 'they're the new internet'. I think statements about how they are as revolutionary as the internet or other infinitely more useful and beneficial to society technologies is hyperbole of the highest order.

 

As for where I think btc is going...I think it will be obviated by someone (who wants to be a billionaire) conjuring a crypto that corrects for btc's flaws, but because btc is already somewhat ubiquitous, I think it doesn't go to zero. I think it will end somewhere in the $100-$1000 range where it will be the vehicle of choice for terrorists, drug dealers, organized crime and child pornography types.

[Dan O]

8 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Something tells me you know nothing about NFTs, or crypto for that matter !

 

Why are you anti crypto? I bet you were offered some a few years ago and said no ???? 

 

You do know Bitcoin has been gaining an average of 100% a year? How much do you get on your gold ?

Its obvious that you are the one that has fallen for the con of buying and investing in cryto that is based on no assets base and only a wish of an increase in value from the next one in line.

 

And to invest in an nft that you dont own and can't have in real possession shows your lack understanding of finance.

 

But it's your money to lose so have fun with that.    100% increase in every year, how's that going today for you? 

[Dan O]

8 hours ago, fdsa said:

In Bitcoin blockchain - yes, transactions are not anonymous.

And I actually support this because it helps to legalize crypto businesses and to cashout Bitcoins purchased long time ago.

 

However there are blockchains that are fully anonymous, for example Monero.

You may want to do a bit more research in Manero before you buy into it being anonymous, 

[Walker88]

13 hours ago, Neeranam said:

When did you first hear of BTC, and not buy it? ????

As for when I first heard of bitcoin...I don't remember the exact date, but I believe it was back around 2012. I used to read a financial website where one fellow championed it (it was about $100 at the time IIRC) and he constantly argued with the Au and Ag bulls. (I was not a believer in precious metals then, as I felt their day had come and gone, and if the Mad Max world of their aficionados came to pass, a 5000 oz bar of Ag would be worth about $0). The guy who championed btc was not well-to-do, but had bought enough btc so that if he held, he'd be okay now.

 

I did not join in and buy, as it was not going to materially affect my lifestyle even if I bought and held to the peak. Yes, we're just anonymous nobodies here online, but I made rather substantial money as a hedge fund manager, retired at a tender age, and have all I need for the duration of my time above ground. There comes a point for some people---me being one---where enough is enough. I have former colleagues who stuck around the industry and remain there, where wealth is now a game and competition among those still in the field, but any wealth now gained offers them nothing new, as they already have everything money can buy. I did not want to be like that as I age, and had the foresight to see what that future would be. It's a lot of headaches monitoring markets 24/7, having fiduciary responsibility, dealing with endless teams of regulators, tax issues, lobbying for quite unfair things like 'carried interest', etc. One also gets obsessed with 'winning', even when gains or losses are nothing compared to one's total pot of wealth. That seemed a bad way to pass existence. It takes a toll not commensurate with any possible gain. It detracts from life's enjoyment. Okay, I am not a billionaire like a few of my former colleagues, but with markets now an intellectual curiosity that doesn't get in the way of enjoying time on Earth, I feel my time since I left has been infinitely more interesting. I enjoy writing and I enjoy commenting on issues that are at the forefront of society, or which pique my curiosity. Also, I can be dispassionate and objective, as I have no skin in the game and no ego tied up with something as banal as a trading entity.

 

For those still seeking the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, have at it. (Just know rainbows are always the same distance away from the observer, so one can never reach 'the end')

[Sametboy2019]

11 hours ago, Hummin said:

From last time, btc stayed low for 2,5 years before pumping again, why buy already now? And time from highest peak to new high was exectly 3 years and two days. 

 

why will it go faster this time? 
 

 

Sorry i didnt mean buy Bitcoin. I meant other coins

[Neeranam]

1 hour ago, Walker88 said:

As for when I first heard of bitcoin...I don't remember the exact date, but I believe it was back around 2012. I used to read a financial website where one fellow championed it (it was about $100 at the time IIRC) and he constantly argued with the Au and Ag bulls. (I was not a believer in precious metals then, as I felt their day had come and gone, and if the Mad Max world of their aficionados came to pass, a 5000 oz bar of Ag would be worth about $0). The guy who championed btc was not well-to-do, but had bought enough btc so that if he held, he'd be okay now.

 

I did not join in and buy, as it was not going to materially affect my lifestyle even if I bought and held to the peak. Yes, we're just anonymous nobodies here online, but I made rather substantial money as a hedge fund manager, retired at a tender age, and have all I need for the duration of my time above ground. There comes a point for some people---me being one---where enough is enough. I have former colleagues who stuck around the industry and remain there, where wealth is now a game and competition among those still in the field, but any wealth now gained offers them nothing new, as they already have everything money can buy. I did not want to be like that as I age, and had the foresight to see what that future would be. It's a lot of headaches monitoring markets 24/7, having fiduciary responsibility, dealing with endless teams of regulators, tax issues, lobbying for quite unfair things like 'carried interest', etc. One also gets obsessed with 'winning', even when gains or losses are nothing compared to one's total pot of wealth. That seemed a bad way to pass existence. It takes a toll not commensurate with any possible gain. It detracts from life's enjoyment. Okay, I am not a billionaire like a few of my former colleagues, but with markets now an intellectual curiosity that doesn't get in the way of enjoying time on Earth, I feel my time since I left has been infinitely more interesting. I enjoy writing and I enjoy commenting on issues that are at the forefront of society, or which pique my curiosity. Also, I can be dispassionate and objective, as I have no skin in the game and no ego tied up with something as banal as a trading entity.

 

For those still seeking the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, have at it. (Just know rainbows are always the same distance away from the observer, so one can never reach 'the end')

Thanks for the answer, a bit clearer why you don't buy crypto. 

Still a bit unsure why you are against it. 

 

[Neeranam]

1 hour ago, Dan O said:

Its obvious that you are the one that has fallen for the con of buying and investing in cryto that is based on no assets base and only a wish of an increase in value from the next one in line.

 

And to invest in an nft that you dont own and can't have in real possession shows your lack understanding of finance.

 

But it's your money to lose so have fun with that.    100% increase in every year, how's that going today for you? 

I've made a lot of money with crypto, I've no idea what you are talking about. Take BTC, it has doubled in the last two years. 

Much more in the last 10 years. 

 

Why are you participating on a crypto forum if you are against it?

Please actually learn about it before making stupid comments like above 

 

[Walker88]

12 hours ago, Sametboy2019 said:

Some things ARE a passing fad, while others are obviated by new technology. Just because folks write using similar arguments once used about the internet doesn't mean crypto is the new internet.

 

Example of the first (passing fad) is the CB radio. You can look back and read articles where 'experts' predict 'CB radios will be standard in all cars in the next year or two and will change the way we live forever'. Well, Good Buddy, that's no ten-four; it's over and out.

 

Example of the second (new tech) is the Walkman or Betamax, both from Sony, a company that once ruled home electronics, but now plays second fiddle to Samsung, LG or Apple. Things like Spotify and Netflix came along, though there were many other way stations before them, all promised to be 'the future', until they, too, were obviated.

 

What is so revolutionary about crypto? What problem does it solve? What value does it add to society that justifies the incredible energy required for mining and transactions? And please don't equate it with Blockchain technology, as it is not the same thing. Electricity is more important than George Foreman's Grill, but George Foreman's Grill does use electricity. crypto uses Blockchain tech, but isn't the Blockchain.

 

I am not arguing it is not a fun speculative vehicle where one can make a lot of genuine money, but it really isn't revolutionary in any actual way. Ease of money transfer? Big deal. I transfer money and just pay the mid rate on FX, and if I send a sizable sum, the spread is only a few pips and my transaction is done quickly. If I can't plan ahead and know I need funds in the next few hours, then I'm a bozo, so the claimed speed of a transaction via crypto is irrelevant.  How about buying something? If it's a pack of gum, the seller can't suffer much (though even that is as energy intensive as 200+ Mastercard transactions), but if the product is expensive, the seller assumes lots of exchange rate risk in something as volatile as crypto. How about lending? Okay, what will you give up, anonymity or credit analysis?  Store of wealth? Depends on where and how you store it, and how easy it is to turn it into a usable means of exchange.

 

Taking an objective view to all of the supposed benefits leaves little else besides 'speculation'. That, however, comes at great cost, as mining and transactions are wildly energy wasteful. So bottom line, society is better off how because of crypto?

[Walker88]

5 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Thanks for the answer, a bit clearer why you don't buy crypto. 

Still a bit unsure why you are against it. 

 

I'm not against it, except for its waste of a finite resource like fossil fuel. I just don't see what value if offers society, and how that justifies the waste of energy.

 

I also have a personal bugaboo about cults, and crypto is a cult. Like I've written in other posts, it isn't powered flight or the printing press or the transistor or the internet, but is touted by many as being almost more than all four.

[Dan O]

11 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

I've made a lot of money with crypto, I've no idea what you are talking about. Take BTC, it has doubled in the last two years. 

Much more in the last 10 years. 

 

Why are you participating on a crypto forum if you are against it?

Please actually learn about it before making stupid comments like above 

 

It's a blog group open to the public so if free speech is an issue perhaps staying in mom's basement is a better place to be. 

 

I'm responding to the original question posted. I'm also presenting facts, which apparently bother you.

 

Glad you made money, hope you can keep it in your pocket.

 

If you don't like facts then you are free to scroll on past.

[Adumbration]

3 hours ago, Walker88 said:

As for where I think btc is going...I think it will be obviated by someone (who wants to be a billionaire) conjuring a crypto that corrects for btc's flaws, but because btc is already somewhat ubiquitous, I think it doesn't go to zero. I think it will end somewhere in the $100-$1000 range where it will be the vehicle of choice for terrorists, drug dealers, organized crime and child pornography types.

I do not belong to any of the criminal classes you have referred to.  However I am going to move heavily into the crypto space when the dust has settled.  The bulk of your didactic rant sits on the assumption that people are pulled to crypto by the prospect of easy money.

 

But what of people, like myself, that are pushed to crypto because of their dissatisfaction with Governments and the banking system.  I will be moving into crypto with the primary objective of unbanking.

[Walker88]

28 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

I do not belong to any of the criminal classes you have referred to.  However I am going to move heavily into the crypto space when the dust has settled.  The bulk of your didactic rant sits on the assumption that people are pulled to crypto by the prospect of easy money.

 

But what of people, like myself, that are pushed to crypto because of their dissatisfaction with Governments and the banking system.  I will be moving into crypto with the primary objective of unbanking.

I never quite understand those arguments. Dissatisfied with govts? Do you mean fiat? Taxes?

 

With ZERO barrier to entry, what do you call an infinite number of finite cryptos?  Infinite, albeit without an economy behind it like fiat has. Fiat has a market-imposed discipline of sorts, as Weimar Germany discovered in 1921. There is no end to the number of crypto that can be issued, and new ones can improve on the flaws of existing coins. There are thousands of Satoshis out there with major incentive to build a better mousetrap and become a billionaire.

 

As for taxes, rest assured any use of the 'wealth' gained from crypto speculation will be noticed and questions will be asked. Besides, already the FBI, CIA and NSA can follow movements in the crypto world, so hiding is a fantasy.

 

As for banking...how will crypto solve banking issues? Anonymous borrowers doesn't make for good credit analysis, while good credit analysis requires public disclosure of the borrower. Also, I like the fact I can have up to $250,000 insured in each of my banks. There is no FDIC in crypto, so how one holds their stash is important. And what about redundancy? If the grid goes down, there are backups regarding my various pockets of wealth. What would an EMP or a major hack do to all of those crypto wallets? As the increased tensions in the world owing to russia's invasion of Ukraine have taught us, worst case scenarios re the grid are now very real possibilities.

 

Next, how crypto banking is going to work hasn't been fully illuminated. How much credit will be available?

 

For all of its faults, both fiat and banking since the Medicis have allowed incredible economic prosperity and lifted billions of people from poverty. Yes, the system relies on suspension of disbelief, but the ability of banks to create money and the growth in the supply of fiat has been the key to this prosperity. crypto isn't going to better what has already been done, so its utility is minimal.

[Adumbration]

Well it looks like I might have been correct about paid downramping of Bitcoin.  BSDs like Elon have made millions on todays rally.

 

The question still remains what percentage is correction and what percentage is manipulation.  

 

Looks like Elon's post on Twitter has also turned the Dow and Nasdaq futures green.

[Adumbration]

17 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

so its utility is minimal.

I will be the judge of that...not you.

[fdsa]

4 hours ago, Dan O said:

You may want to do a bit more research in Manero before you buy into it being anonymous, 

Would you be so kind to lead me into the right direction?

As for now, even the leaders in the blockchain research - Chainalysis - are not able to deanonymize Monero transactions.

[fdsa]

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

But what of people, like myself, that are pushed to crypto because of their dissatisfaction with Governments and the banking system.  I will be moving into crypto with the primary objective of unbanking.

Same here. I wonder how all these people enjoy the traditional banking system where they could not do whatever they want with their own money, and instead some random clerk in the bank decides what they could do or could not.

So basically they do not own their money, and they enjoy that. Is that masochism or some other mental disorder?

[fdsa]

This happened to me recently:

 

- what was that, an anti-money-laundering policy? Our deputies and ministers are moving millions abroad without any questions from the banks and I'm fkcng "laundering" three hundred bucks?!

[ExpatOilWorker]

A lot of VERY tech savvy people have been making their living of crypto currencies the past 10 years.

After the whole crypto dream/illusion implode on itself, we will probably see a significant increase in tradition banking hacks and scams.

Smart people also have bills to pay and the dark web never sleeps.

[Danderman123]

On 6/18/2022 at 6:22 PM, Sparktrader said:

Some people might be jumping off buildings.

Not jumping off buildings, but the Bitcrash is stopping young Farangs from discussing their favorite topic at the bars. 

[Dan O]

42 minutes ago, fdsa said:

Would you be so kind to lead me into the right direction?

As for now, even the leaders in the blockchain research - Chainalysis - are not able to deanonymize Monero transactions.

Research ring signature structure and vulnerability as well as FLOODXML attacks 

[Adumbration]

39 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

A lot of VERY tech savvy people have been making their living of crypto currencies the past 10 years.

After the whole crypto dream/illusion implode on itself, we will probably see a significant increase in tradition banking hacks and scams.

Smart people also have bills to pay and the dark web never sleeps.

Successful people know the importance of being able to pivot.