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Thailand feels the pinch of lower tourism earnings as second ex-minister queries economic data


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4 hours ago, nchuckle said:

I think you’re overselling the all doom and gloom situation. Yes,there are economic pressures,but we’ve had economic crises before. The tourist industry in the likes of Spain hasn’t died to the extent of Thailand and of course the European winter is traditionally the time for Thailand to make hay . Of course ,in a depressed market one has to work harder and become more creative to entice customers ,but this is where Thailand has let itself down badly with a combination of arrogance,hubris and sheer incompetence coupled with no vision . The wrong people are in charge.

Yes I admit it is gloomy. In the past only one or two major countries got into economic difficulties and there was always a saviour on the horizon be it America, China or the IMF but now there is no saviour coming to the rescue, both the big players, the USA and China have economic problems, the mighty Dollar is being challenged as a reserve currency (only talk at the moment) because the Saudis are considering taking the Yuan as payment for oil which would open the flood gates, the US would lose their reserve status and the Dollar would collapse, Americans would have to live within their means and this would have a disastrous effect on Europe. The Chinese are balancing a tight rope with housing debt and massive corruption. QE is no longer an option for central banks, it was the substratum of our problems today so what do they do, raise interest rates every three months to get inflation under control (see Argentina with rates of 75%) but this strangles industry and companies are already over leveraged as it is. One option is now being considered, a world wide digital economy which would give governments total control of your money. There are are also whispers of going back to the gold standard (perhaps why many countries have been buying up gold recently) Whatever, it is now generally recognized that just tweaking the system as before wont do it any more, the system is broken, it can limp on for a few more years to give the technocrats time to build a new system, I have the sneaking feeling that it wont be to the advantage of Mr and Mrs Smith. 

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3 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Yes I admit it is gloomy. In the past only one or two major countries got into economic difficulties and there was always a saviour on the horizon be it America, China or the IMF but now there is no saviour coming to the rescue, both the big players, the USA and China have economic problems, the mighty Dollar is being challenged as a reserve currency (only talk at the moment) because the Saudis are considering taking the Yuan as payment for oil which would open the flood gates, the US would lose their reserve status and the Dollar would collapse, Americans would have to live within their means and this would have a disastrous effect on Europe. T

The dollar isn't the reserve currency because of oil. It's the reserve currency because it has the largest and most liquid markets...fixed income and equity. Virtually any amount of funds can be moved in and out with no difficulty.

 

Even if Saudi and China move to price oil in yuan, it will make no difference. The yuan is never going to be a reserve currency so long as the CP is in power. Capital restrictions make the yuan almost meaningless.

 

People who are not economists or traders have been barking about the end of the petrodollar for years. It shows a total lack of understanding of international finance.

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2 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Somehow it is hard to imagine over $200 billion dollars being left untouched in"reserve" after this regime has controlled it for 8 years!

Reserves are not some big box of money sitting idle. It is held in various currencies and invested in debt instruments in those currencies.  It serves as a kind of collateral when the govt issues new debt, which the Thai govt has been doing in spades.

 

When the current account goes negative, some reserve assets may be sold off to cover holes in domestic sovereign financing.

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Reality finally is hitting home, their arrogant approach to foreigners hope will change, but the recovery will be slow. People discovered other better priced places for vacations with  better treatment and stronger appreciation 

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8 hours ago, anrcaccount said:

Big factor.

 

Reality is, who wants to come on holiday and feel like they're stepping back into 2020. Pandemic fear-  does not a good holiday make. 
 

Hard to properly relax when most are masked up. If Thailand wants to promote getting tourists back, they need to drop the masks.
 

Not to mention,  it'd do wonders for the psychological well being of the citizens, to move past it. 

I am sitting on a fence and so far I have decided not to return to Thailand mainly due to this reason as well.

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10 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Somehow it is hard to imagine over $200 billion dollars being left untouched in"reserve" after this regime has controlled it for 8 years!

You would be surprised. They are not as addicted to the debt based fiscal irresponsibility, as per Western, developed countries. 

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1 hour ago, ozz1 said:

At the moment  4star    bali hotels are cheaper than Thailand but Thais think the world revolves around Thailand unfortunately it doesn't

I'm headed back to Indonesia in four days - giving Thailand a miss.  I think this is what a lot of people are doing unless they have family or girlfriends there.  

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17 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

And, triple hotel prices?  Have not seen any of that.  Maybe triple from the peak of the Pandemic but not 3 times what they were before.

I used Agoda to book a stay in Hua Hin earlier this week.  I was pleasantly surprised to find that the hotel we usually stay at had vacancies over the Xmas period.  Same price as always and no compulsory Xmas eve dinner, Xmas day lunch at some stupid inflated price.  No this is not a cheap hotel.  Beach front.  This will be our seventh or eighth stay so it must be good, at least for us.

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On 10/25/2022 at 7:56 AM, Elkski said:

So how are hotel prices for tourists compared to ore COVID?  Lower?

The TAT or the Government proposed that Thai hotels charge tourists their full rack rate - no discounts at all - to increase turnover.  Brilliant idea, of course, but ... they seem to have forgotten that turnover is price (yes) but multiplied by number of payors and that usually this number falls as the price increases.

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On 10/25/2022 at 11:42 AM, kwak250 said:

Eva air direct to bkk booked in April for the start of this month was £480 return .

Not bad as the same flight 3 years ago was nearly the same price.

I've just booked Singapore Air to Paris for February for 1 month. Fare was 20,500 baht rtn. But very hard to book the bargains they advertise!

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On 10/25/2022 at 12:57 PM, nchuckle said:

The need for longer term route  planning meant Thailand’s chaotic and ever changing entry rules effectively made it too volatile for BA to commit resources to the route when those could be directed towards more stable options. There was already pre pandemic a move to switch away from Bangkok evidenced by BA using Singapore as the hub for Australia routes which speaks to the arrogance of Thailand regarding making itself attractive to commercial airline operatives. That BA closed the door to reopening for the traditional Thai high season starting about now doesn’t bode well for the chances of them restarting in March (low season) . I don’t think it’ll be considered until at least November 2023. Generals are not good economic forecasters nor understand the principles for attracting  foreign investment . Outside of tourism the structural investment in education and skills have traditionally fallen woefully short and a country that should have been well placed to take advantage of the West’s switch away from China will ,unlike Vietnam,miss out.

A few years ago Thailand upped all their charges for airlines using BKK as their hub. 41 airlines stopped using BKK and went to Singapore. They can't help themselves. Greed is in their DNA.

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11 minutes ago, crouchpeter said:

I think it's the empty headed morons who aren't wearing masks.

The only ones not  wearing masks here in Pattaya are falangs ,hardly saw one wearing one  while out shopping yesterday ,

as for tourists,sorry what are they ,its been so long since we saw any ,ive forgotten what they look like ,as for Tesco N Pattaya yesterday it was almost deserted ,

and everywhere ,seems to be shuttered up .

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2 hours ago, crouchpeter said:

A few years ago Thailand upped all their charges for airlines using BKK as their hub. 41 airlines stopped using BKK and went to Singapore. They can't help themselves. Greed is in their DNA.

Interesting,although that’s not so much greed,as stupidity…which also seems to be in the dna ???? !

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On 10/25/2022 at 2:34 AM, CygnusX1 said:

After more than 2 years of no travel, I have more money than ever, but sorry mask lovers, I now decide where to go based on whether face masks are ubiquitous or not. I know they’re not technically required in Thailand outside of health care settings, but with just about all Thais apparently still wearing them, I don’t care to be disrespectful. That means Italy, Croatia, Rio, Hawaii, maybe Tahiti next year, but not Thailand or any other Asian country, and that’s despite the fact that I own a condo in Thailand and have an elite visa.

Nothing to do with masks . You must be one of very few that give up their chosen destination because    many of  their citizens wear masks !! 

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