Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

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U.S. Raises Concerns About Israel’s Plan of Action in Gaza, Officials Say

The Biden administration is concerned that Israel lacks achievable military objectives in Gaza, and that the Israel Defense Forces are not yet ready to launch a ground invasion with a plan that can work, senior administration officials said.

In phone conversations with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III has stressed the need for careful consideration of how Israeli forces might conduct a ground invasion of Gaza, where Hamas maintains intricate tunnel networks under densely populated areas.

Biden administration officials insisted that the United States had not told Israel what to do and still supported the ground invasion.

https://archive.ph/Gnz4j

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/23/us/politics/israel-us-gaza-invasion.html

[Yellowtail]

2 hours ago, deejai33 said:

 

Me trolling ?  Clearly I do not.

 

Again you want me to answer the question which I posed to pro-israeli contributers.  I am not pro-israeli, so I cannot answer the question.  Seems sensible to me.   

 

I asked the question sincerely.   I am interested to know, in detail, how the pro-israeli folk see the future for the palestinians.  Seems important to have a detailed view as its the israeli's, with unwavering US backing, that call the shots, make the decisions.  

 

These Israel-Palestine threads contain so much hostility from the pro-israeli contributors, I am reluctant to make posts.

Expecting people to be truthful and support their claims constitutes hostility? 

 

While you have changed it, I answered your original question several times and asked you: What do the pro-palestine guys here want the future of Israel to be? 

 

Why have you never answered? Afraid of the "hostility"? 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

 

You 'suggested' but neglected to explain how Hamas could be 'made to give up power', by whom, and in who's favor.

Ergo my: "Yeah, and if a rainbow came down over doves carrying a banner saying "Peace on Earth" everyone might throw down their arms and embrace their enemies." comment.

 

 

[Yellowtail]

2 hours ago, Morch said:

 

The last bit is vague - it can cut whichever way, and it doesn't explain or support the original comment.

 

But it (the media) overwhelming cuts to the left, and it gets harder all the time. 

 

Do you honestly believe that the way kids coming home in body-bags are covered, what questions are asked, what questions are not asked, how the questions are asked, and how the answers are reported and what answers are ignored shapes public opinion? I do not believe you do, because you are smart enough to not give any credit to a poll that does not include the actual questions asked and (I would guess) the parameters of the study. But on the "news", we only get the results, and we only see those when the people reporting them like them. It is the same with everything they report. 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

U.S. Raises Concerns About Israel’s Plan of Action in Gaza, Officials Say

The Biden administration is concerned that Israel lacks achievable military objectives in Gaza, and that the Israel Defense Forces are not yet ready to launch a ground invasion with a plan that can work, senior administration officials said.

In phone conversations with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III has stressed the need for careful consideration of how Israeli forces might conduct a ground invasion of Gaza, where Hamas maintains intricate tunnel networks under densely populated areas.

Biden administration officials insisted that the United States had not told Israel what to do and still supported the ground invasion.

https://archive.ph/Gnz4j

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/23/us/politics/israel-us-gaza-invasion.html

Perhaps Lloyd can help them get a good gender studies program going, like they're starting at the Navel Acadamy. That might help them prepare. 

[Morch]

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

 

But it (the media) overwhelming cuts to the left, and it gets harder all the time. 

 

Do you honestly believe that the way kids coming home in body-bags are covered, what questions are asked, what questions are not asked, how the questions are asked, and how the answers are reported and what answers are ignored shapes public opinion? I do not believe you do, because you are smart enough to not give any credit to a poll that does not include the actual questions asked and (I would guess) the parameters of the study. But on the "news", we only get the results, and we only see those when the people reporting them like them. It is the same with everything they report. 

 

 

 

If I understand correctly, you are referring to the USA, and we're talking about Israel. Media leanings, control and so on are somewhat different. I'm not even talking Palestinian media, because that's a whole other can of worms. 

[Morch]

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

Perhaps Lloyd can help them get a good gender studies program going, like they're starting at the Navel Acadamy. That might help them prepare. 

 

The same concerns were raised by former Israeli generals, including one which was previously specifically appointed to review related matters. As with many armed forces around the World, the air force is in ok shape, navy too, and elite ground units. The rest....less so.

[thaibeachlovers]

8 hours ago, deejai33 said:

 

Me trolling ?  Clearly I do not.

 

Again you want me to answer the question which I posed to pro-israeli contributers.  I am not pro-israeli, so I cannot answer the question.  Seems sensible to me.   

 

I asked the question sincerely.   I am interested to know, in detail, how the pro-israeli folk see the future for the palestinians.  Seems important to have a detailed view as its the israeli's, with unwavering US backing, that call the shots, make the decisions.  

 

These Israel-Palestine threads contain so much hostility from the pro-israeli contributors, I am reluctant to make posts.

The comment was made on Al Jazeera this morning that the israelis apparently have no idea of what to do with Gaza after the invasion, which is why Biden made the comment that the israelis should not make the same mistakes as the US after 9 11.

 

IMO right now the israelis just want revenge, and have no clue about what to do after they have "eliminated" Hamas ( which they can never do, given it's an ideology, not an army ).

[Yellowtail]

8 hours ago, Morch said:

 

If I understand correctly, you are referring to the USA, and we're talking about Israel. Media leanings, control and so on are somewhat different. I'm not even talking Palestinian media, because that's a whole other can of worms. 

I was referring to the world, and it's not like Israel is going to cut off from outside media. 

[Morch]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

The comment was made on Al Jazeera this morning that the israelis apparently have no idea of what to do with Gaza after the invasion, which is why Biden made the comment that the israelis should not make the same mistakes as the US after 9 11.

 

IMO right now the israelis just want revenge, and have no clue about what to do after they have "eliminated" Hamas ( which they can never do, given it's an ideology, not an army ).

 

It's a long read, have a ball:

 

Here's an outline of a war plan to change the situation in Gaza

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sysmhx1fp

[placnx]

20 hours ago, Morch said:

 

You 'suggested' but neglected to explain how Hamas could be 'made to give up power', by whom, and in who's favor.

Who could get Hamas to relinquish political control? Principally the countries which would finance reconstruction, mainly the GCC countries. There was a very good monologue by Daniel Levy which covers his idea of how to getfrom here to there. https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2023/10/21/why-does-the-us-not-support-a-ceasefire-in-gaza

[Morch]

7 minutes ago, placnx said:

Who could get Hamas to relinquish political control? Principally the countries which would finance reconstruction, mainly the GCC countries. There was a very good monologue by Daniel Levy which covers his idea of how to getfrom here to there. https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2023/10/21/why-does-the-us-not-support-a-ceasefire-in-gaza

 

Not bothering with any more clips you post after that '60% support" bit. Coming to think about it, even the poll links supplied later didn't include what you claimed.

 

If it was that easy to dislodge and disarm Hamas, somehow make its public appeal vanish, it wouldn't be much of an issue. 

 

You have no answer. You rely on other's words. You post misleading comments. Get serious.

 

 

[Yellowtail]

32 minutes ago, placnx said:

Who could get Hamas to relinquish political control? Principally the countries which would finance reconstruction, mainly the GCC countries. There was a very good monologue by Daniel Levy which covers his idea of how to getfrom here to there. https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2023/10/21/why-does-the-us-not-support-a-ceasefire-in-gaza

 

The GCC countries will likely only fund the reconstruction of hamas, not in developing Palestine. 

 

If they really wanted to help the Palestinians, they would be accepting refugees and helping Israel defeat hamas. 

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, placnx said:

Who could get Hamas to relinquish political control? Principally the countries which would finance reconstruction, mainly the GCC countries. There was a very good monologue by Daniel Levy which covers his idea of how to getfrom here to there. https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-bottom-line/2023/10/21/why-does-the-us-not-support-a-ceasefire-in-gaza

I watched an interview with Daniel Levy on Al Jazeera. Not sure if it's the same one, but he has a good grasp of the situation. Someone that should be listened to by western leaders ( apparently he used to be an israeli government advisor )

[thaibeachlovers]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

Principally the countries which would finance reconstruction, mainly the GCC countries.

While it's not guaranteed that they would do so, even if they did, will they want to eliminate Hamas ( or it's successor ), as that would give israel unfettered ability to do whatever it likes in illegally occupied Palestine?

[Morch]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I watched an interview with Daniel Levy on Al Jazeera. Not sure if it's the same one, but he has a good grasp of the situation. Someone that should be listened to by western leaders ( apparently he used to be an israeli government advisor )

 

That's the guy. A junior advisor, at the time, though, let's not get carried away. And what grasp he may or may not have, he's pretty much always banging about the same things. Doubt it was directly related to what @placnx claimed.

[Morch]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

While it's not guaranteed that they would do so, even if they did, will they want to eliminate Hamas ( or it's successor ), as that would give israel unfettered ability to do whatever it likes in illegally occupied Palestine?

 

Do you even have a remote clue what you're posting on? About half of the country members in the JCC are anti-Hamas. It's designated a terrorist organization on some.

[Jim1000]

On 10/22/2023 at 5:51 PM, placnx said:

This war has a counterpart on the West Bank with settler terrorism, and the struggle for Palestinian freedom is becoming universal as demonstrations are happening everywhere, even in countries like Germany that try to suppress anti-Israel speech.

You mean the people who caused the problem in the first place  placnx?

[Jack100]

On 10/13/2023 at 10:20 AM, Tug said:

Get it done exterminate Hamas if the Palestinians want relief they need to rat out the barbarians that brought this debacle down on their heads 

If only everyone in Palestine was as brave as you Tug !

[deejai33]

On 10/24/2023 at 8:29 AM, Morch said:

 

Hamas could release the hostages to secure such a ceasefire.

 

I agree, that would be a way to start to defuse the situation.

 

Hamas should release the hostages, Israel should stop violence against Palestinians, and restore water, food, electicity supplies.

 

Once the bombing of Gaza stops and the death counts on both sides can be established, maybe it will be seen that more than enough palestians, hamas operatives, and israeli citizens have died.  Approx 4 to 1 currently.  Enough to satisfy claims for revenge, retribution.

 

Israel can improve its defenses in Gaza region with 2-3 km no-go area. Hamas has pickup trucks, poor quality rockets.  No aircraft, no tanks, no $4bn a year in military aid.  Should be not too difficult to prevent a repeat of the Hamas attrocity.

 

But a proper, long term solution is needed:

 

The UN, Arab league, US, and all relevant parties can then work on a fair long term solution probably based on a 2 state solution.  Israel has a state.  It is only when the Palestinians also have a viable state that the conflict has a chance of ending.

 

If a viable 2 state plan gets backing of the Palestinian civilians, a political party could emerge and replace Hamas administration.  The Palestinians need hope and a way forward, so they can reject Hamas ideology.

 

No need for more bloodshed.

 

[deejai33]

On 10/23/2023 at 10:10 PM, Yellowtail said:

I think the pro-Israeli guys here would like nothing more than for Palestinian to live in peace and harmony with Israel.

 

What do the pro-palestine guys here want the future of Israel to be? It's not a trick question. 

 

Thanks for your reply.

 

I see another reply saying:

 

"Let them do whatever they want to do , just accept Israel's existence  and stop waging war and get on with their own lives ".

 

Both of these replies are good as overall principles.  I can imagine that almost all civilians (Israeli, Palestinian) want peace, safety, and to get on with their lives.

 

However more details are needed.  Such as one-state, or two state solutions.  So Palestinians have control over their lives and a place to live which is not a refugee camp dependant on foreign aid.  

 

The arab states proposed a 10 point plan 20 years ago, revived later by saudi arabia.  Mr Trump proposed a 2 state plan.  

 

A single state plan seems a bit hopeful if it means palestinians get to vote and have equal rights in a joint Israeli-Palestinian state.  But apparently it is proposed by some Israeli politicians.

 

You ask what I want for Israel, as a pro-palestinian.  Israel seems to be flourishing and prospering.  That's good.  But the Palestinians need to cease being the underdog and under occupation.  So by having a Palestinian state, both Israel and Palestinians can prosper.   (All parties loosing their ingrained animosity as time passes).

 

[Yellowtail]

4 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

 

Thanks for your reply.

 

I see another reply saying:

 

"Let them do whatever they want to do , just accept Israel's existence  and stop waging war and get on with their own lives ".

 

Both of these replies are good as overall principles.  I can imagine that almost all civilians (Israeli, Palestinian) want peace, safety, and to get on with their lives.

 

However more details are needed.  Such as one-state, or two state solutions.  So Palestinians have control over their lives and a place to live which is not a refugee camp dependant on foreign aid.  

What detail are needed to want Israel to live in peace and harmony with Palestine? 

4 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

 

The arab states proposed a 10 point plan 20 years ago, revived later by saudi arabia.  Mr Trump proposed a 2 state plan.  

The Arab 10-Point plan was Rejected by the PLO because they wanted to continue fighting to eradicate Isarel. The Trump two-state plan as well as the numerous Israeli two-state plans have all been rejected for the same reasons.  

4 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

 

A single state plan seems a bit hopeful if it means palestinians get to vote and have equal rights in a joint Israeli-Palestinian state.  But apparently it is proposed by some Israeli politicians.

I single-state plan with a large percentage of Palestinian population wanting to kill all the Jews will not work. 

4 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

 

You ask what I want for Israel, as a pro-palestinian.  Israel seems to be flourishing and prospering.  That's good.  But the Palestinians need to cease being the underdog and under occupation. 

The Gaza Strip has not been occupied by Israel for 15-20 years.

4 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

 

So by having a Palestinian state, both Israel and Palestinians can prosper.   (All parties loosing their ingrained animosity as time passes).

 

Most everyone but the Palestinians (or a large majority of them) wants a two-state solution. 

[Morch]

32 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

 

I agree, that would be a way to start to defuse the situation.

 

Hamas should release the hostages, Israel should stop violence against Palestinians, and restore water, food, electicity supplies.

 

Once the bombing of Gaza stops and the death counts on both sides can be established, maybe it will be seen that more than enough palestians, hamas operatives, and israeli citizens have died.  Approx 4 to 1 currently.  Enough to satisfy claims for revenge, retribution.

 

Israel can improve its defenses in Gaza region with 2-3 km no-go area. Hamas has pickup trucks, poor quality rockets.  No aircraft, no tanks, no $4bn a year in military aid.  Should be not too difficult to prevent a repeat of the Hamas attrocity.

 

But a proper, long term solution is needed:

 

The UN, Arab league, US, and all relevant parties can then work on a fair long term solution probably based on a 2 state solution.  Israel has a state.  It is only when the Palestinians also have a viable state that the conflict has a chance of ending.

 

If a viable 2 state plan gets backing of the Palestinian civilians, a political party could emerge and replace Hamas administration.  The Palestinians need hope and a way forward, so they can reject Hamas ideology.

 

No need for more bloodshed.

 

 

 

What you offer as a sort of interim solution is a return to the previous paradigm. The one that just failed.

 

You expect Israel to restore electricity, water and other supplies to the Gaza Strip - but offer no viable way these would not benefit Hamas. You try and minimize the risks involved. Basically, Israel gives, Hamas does not. And no, the hostages do not count as Hamas giving anything. They should be released unconditionally (civilians, at the very least).

 

As for the rest - do you see much motivation now, in Israel or among Palestinians to come to a conclusive agreement? To hold talks? Who would represent the Palestinians? What can they deliver without Hamas's consent?

 

What is this 'backing of Palestinian civilians'? How do you asses that? How would a political party 'emerge'? Why would it be acceptable to people who support Hamas ideology and policies?

 

It's ok to fantasize, but glossing over facts and reality won't solve anything.

 

 

 

 

 

[Morch]

22 minutes ago, deejai33 said:

 

Thanks for your reply.

 

I see another reply saying:

 

"Let them do whatever they want to do , just accept Israel's existence  and stop waging war and get on with their own lives ".

 

Both of these replies are good as overall principles.  I can imagine that almost all civilians (Israeli, Palestinian) want peace, safety, and to get on with their lives.

 

However more details are needed.  Such as one-state, or two state solutions.  So Palestinians have control over their lives and a place to live which is not a refugee camp dependant on foreign aid.  

 

The arab states proposed a 10 point plan 20 years ago, revived later by saudi arabia.  Mr Trump proposed a 2 state plan.  

 

A single state plan seems a bit hopeful if it means palestinians get to vote and have equal rights in a joint Israeli-Palestinian state.  But apparently it is proposed by some Israeli politicians.

 

You ask what I want for Israel, as a pro-palestinian.  Israel seems to be flourishing and prospering.  That's good.  But the Palestinians need to cease being the underdog and under occupation.  So by having a Palestinian state, both Israel and Palestinians can prosper.   (All parties loosing their ingrained animosity as time passes).

 

 

You 'imagine' too much and too freely. There are significant elements in both societies which can be labled as nationalistic, zealots, racists, and so on. They are not some fringe groups (those are even worse...), but enjoy wide popular support. So instead of ignoring that, and assuming that people want what you want them to want - maybe address their actual attitudes.

 

 

[Morch]

8 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

What detail are needed to want Israel to live in peace and harmony with Palestine? 

The Arab 10-Point plan was Rejected by the PLO because they wanted to continue fighting to eradicate Isarel. The Trump two-state plan as well as the numerous Israeli two-state plans have all been rejected for the same reasons.  

I single-state plan with a large percentage of Palestinian population wanting to kill all the Jews will not work. 

The Gaza Strip has not been occupied by Israel for 15-20 years.

Most everyone but the Palestinians (or a large majority of them) wants a two-state solution. 

 

 

The Arab Peace Initiative was actually accepted (under some political duress) by the PA. Hamas was evasive, but essentially rejected it. Doesn't matter much what the PA says if they cannot come to terms with the Hamas or garner enough support to make it irrelevant. Israel rejected the proposal.

 

There weren't 'numerous' Israeli two-state solutions made, but it is true that they were rejected, or not responded to. One could argue that the Israeli governments in question could not have delivered, but that cuts both ways.

 

A single state is a none-starter to anyone who looks over the fence to Lebanon, or further afield, Iraq. Doesn't work in the ME. People aren't quite 'there' yet to allow for this to happen.

 

And no, I do not think most Israelis actually support a two-state solution. There was never a clear majority for this (as far as I recall), and support in the notion eroded over time. The Hamas raid didn't do this any favors.

[Jingthing]

2 hours ago, deejai33 said:

 

I agree, that would be a way to start to defuse the situation.

 

Hamas should release the hostages, Israel should stop violence against Palestinians, and restore water, food, electicity supplies.

 

Once the bombing of Gaza stops and the death counts on both sides can be established, maybe it will be seen that more than enough palestians, hamas operatives, and israeli citizens have died.  Approx 4 to 1 currently.  Enough to satisfy claims for revenge, retribution.

 

Israel can improve its defenses in Gaza region with 2-3 km no-go area. Hamas has pickup trucks, poor quality rockets.  No aircraft, no tanks, no $4bn a year in military aid.  Should be not too difficult to prevent a repeat of the Hamas attrocity.

 

But a proper, long term solution is needed:

 

The UN, Arab league, US, and all relevant parties can then work on a fair long term solution probably based on a 2 state solution.  Israel has a state.  It is only when the Palestinians also have a viable state that the conflict has a chance of ending.

 

If a viable 2 state plan gets backing of the Palestinian civilians, a political party could emerge and replace Hamas administration.  The Palestinians need hope and a way forward, so they can reject Hamas ideology.

 

No need for more bloodshed.

 

No hope for any of that with Hamas in power.

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, deejai33 said:

A single state plan seems a bit hopeful if it means palestinians get to vote and have equal rights in a joint Israeli-Palestinian state.  But apparently it is proposed by some Israeli politicians.

Did you mean "opposed" by some israeli politicians? I don't know of any that support that solution.

 

Such a solution would likely be opposed by israel as they will might end up with a majority Palestinian population.

The Two State solution has been dead for a long time as it would only work with a complete israeli withdrawal from the West Bank.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 10/24/2023 at 3:59 AM, Neeranam said:

I've learned a lot since Oct 7. I didn't know the UN and Amnesty International both say there is Apartheid in Israel. 

Surely being pro-Israel is being pro Apartheid. 

No one can condone what some Hamas did but what Israel have being doing to Palestinians and are currently doing, is criminal and should not be supported. 

I don't know the answer but say Israel should equal rights to Palestinians and give them back the land that was stolen through discriminatory laws. 

 

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2022/02/israels-system-of-apartheid/

 

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1114702

I'm surprise that anyone doesn't know that israel has been accused of being an apartheid state, but I guess it depends on which media one sees. I doubt anyone only watching CNN or Fox will get both sides of the problem.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 10/24/2023 at 2:33 AM, spidermike007 said:

This seems to be the only course of action they know, violence and a campaign of death seems to be their only path. Israel is now controlled by the extremists on the right and Netanyahu does not seem to have a choice but to obey their every whim. Peace is not an option, negotiations are not an option. A two-state solution does not seem to be an option anymore, and the warmongers are in control. Another example of the severe decline of modern civilization. 

I don't see much "modern civilization" in caging over 2 million people, oppressing them for 30 years, and when they rebel against their oppressors denying water, food, fuel and medical supplies while bombing them to bits.

 

That, IMO, is what they used to do in the middle ages and before.

A thousand years of civilization, and we haven't advanced much at all, except in being able to kill more people with better weapons.

[Jingthing]

8 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I'm surprise that anyone doesn't know that israel has been accused of being an apartheid state, but I guess it depends on which media one sees. I doubt anyone only watching CNN or Fox will get both sides of the problem.

Israel is not an apartheid state in regards to Israeli citizens within it's borders.

The Palestinian west bank is specific situation. Obviously the Israeli west bank settlements are an occupation.

To Hamas all of Israel is an occupation, so Israel has no choice now but to go to war.