Analysis The Gaza diplomacy of Biden, Sunak and co seems to be heading for failure

[Nick Carter icp]

41 minutes ago, bobbin said:

The above of course is not the end-game merely a good first step..

 

Why doesn't the Israeli military not focus on the tunnels? That's where Hamas lives, and it avoids the extreme dangers of fighting in an urban environment..

 

Drones. Equipped with infra-red and night vision cameras..and bombs. The tunnels are key infrastructure for Hamas and all connected. Not much point in dead-end tunnels.

 

This obviously would reduce significantly civilian casualties..

 

   They have air tight doors in the tunnels and they keep the doors closed when not in use 

[bobbin]

16 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

The tunnels run under residential areas, hospitals, schools etc.

Not sure what you meant.

My understanding is the tunnels are quite deep.. And tunnels usually collapse on themselves, not necessarily causing the surface to collapse into a crater..

 

Every underground mining operation has individuals skilled at crating tunnels. That's how Hamas built them.

Reverse engineer the process with appropriate quantity of explosives..

 

So even though these tunnels run underneath Gaza city it still confines the fighting.. and almost every Palestinian casualty will be an appropriate casualty..

[bobbin]

24 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

 

   They have air tight doors in the tunnels and they keep the doors closed when not in use 

I would imagine that air-tight is not the equivalent of bomb-proof..

 

And if still standing bomb them again.

[bobbin]

39 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

There is, apparently, a swap deal arranged by Qatar - not there yet, but maybe close. Previous negotiations in hostage situations took months and years, though. Need to wait and see.

 

One correction and one anecdote - it was actually a bit over 1000 Palestinians who were released, among them one Yahya Sinwar....

 

 

Those negotiations took time because that was "quiet diplomacy". This time it would not be quiet. Israel should be talking about their desire to save their people (and foreign hostages..21? Thais) at every opportunity. If Hamas prevaricates..bad PR for them, including with their own people.

 

Israel should include family members, including distant relatives,of known Hamas operatives. More internal pressure..

 

Yes i recognize the name... Mr Sinwar is a very senior Hamas leader.

 

Mr. Friedman also said that if every senior Hamas member that Israel has claimed to have neutralized were significant there would be no Hamas..

[Yellowtail]

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Currently watching "Counting the Cost" on Al Jazeera.

It's pointing out that the israeli economy has been severely harmed by the conflict ( forget tourism for a start ), and not least by calling up so many reservists which has deprived businesses of workers.

 

Had a long shot of empty israeli streets and shuttered shops.

 

It's also pointed out the risk to the world economy, so this conflict may end up negatively impacting all of us.

 

The following was not seen on the program, and is my opinion.

If OPEC decides to block oil exports that really will have us all suffering, especially with Russian oil off line for western nations.

I have not forgotten the effects of the 70's oil cut off, and it'll be worse now, if it happens.

It won't hurt all of us. Let them cut it off. 

[Morch]

1 hour ago, bobbin said:

My understanding is the tunnels are quite deep.. And tunnels usually collapse on themselves, not necessarily causing the surface to collapse into a crater..

 

Every underground mining operation has individuals skilled at crating tunnels. That's how Hamas built them.

Reverse engineer the process with appropriate quantity of explosives..

 

So even though these tunnels run underneath Gaza city it still confines the fighting.. and almost every Palestinian casualty will be an appropriate casualty..

 

As I understand it, the first phase (aerial bombings) is aimed at taking out whatever targets they can this way, and also clear a path (that's the destruction part) for ground forces. Since two or three days ago the IDF is carrying nightly large scale raids into the Gaza Strip. I think part of that is to do with what you mentioned.

 

While the IAF packs quite a punch, I think they can't handle this simply with airstrikes.

 

 

[Morch]

48 minutes ago, bobbin said:

Those negotiations took time because that was "quiet diplomacy". This time it would not be quiet. Israel should be talking about their desire to save their people (and foreign hostages..21? Thais) at every opportunity. If Hamas prevaricates..bad PR for them, including with their own people.

 

Israel should include family members, including distant relatives,of known Hamas operatives. More internal pressure..

 

Yes i recognize the name... Mr Sinwar is a very senior Hamas leader.

 

Mr. Friedman also said that if every senior Hamas member that Israel has claimed to have neutralized were significant there would be no Hamas..

 

It's 'quiet' this time too, because neither side wants to seem 'weak'. A whole lot of rumors and denials. Funny you should mention families - one of the routine Palestinian (well, Gazan) complaints this time is that Hamas leaders smuggled their families out of the Gaza Strip beforehand. I have no idea if this is 100% true, but it's a fact that some are/were living with families abroad.

 

Sinwar is one of the two main people behind the attack. The other being Deif.

And to add extra spice - a year or two back he was almost voted out as being too 'soft' vs. Israel. I don't know if the plan was already in the works, and the 'softness' (everything is relative, eh?) was part of it, or whether political pressure within helped push this along.

 

Yes, there's a lot of that too. I think mostly for public consumption. In effect, intel should know who's who, and who matters.

 

[Morch]

10 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

It won't hurt all of us. Let them cut it off. 

 

Sounds like something ISIS or a mohel would say.....

[Yellowtail]

51 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Sounds like something ISIS or a mohel would say.....

As if they are ever going to stop. 

[stevenl]

7 hours ago, Morch said:

Disregarding the expected knee-jerk reactions from HRW -

Yes, expected but that doesn't make it less valid. But regarding consequences it is meaningless.

[Morch]

22 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Yes, expected but that doesn't make it less valid. But regarding consequences it is meaningless.

 

Valid? If you say so. There was actually more on that included in my post.

I would also add that their Israel and Palestine Director is hardly an unbiased, objective person.

[thaibeachlovers]

Given the HUGE demonstration in support of Gaza in London ( as seen on Al Jazeera ) Sunak must be feeling somewhat uncomfortable given his poodle visit to suck up to netanyahu. Perhaps he should have been more reticent in his support for the israelis.

Perhaps he thought it would all be over by now, so he may be dismayed by netanyahu's declaration of a "long and hard" war in Gaza. The longer it goes on the bigger the demonstrations will become.

 

Apparently the protest in Paris was banned, but it went ahead anyway.

 

Hundreds of thousands demonstrating against israel all over the world, and Erdogan has been forthright in his condemnation of israel, to the point that netanyahu has recalled the israeli diplomats from Turkey ( as seen on Al Jazeera ).

 

History may tell that certain leaders were on the wrong side, too soon.

[Yellowtail]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Given the HUGE demonstration in support of Gaza in London ( as seen on Al Jazeera ) Sunak must be feeling somewhat uncomfortable given his poodle visit to suck up to netanyahu. Perhaps he should have been more reticent in his support for the israelis.

Perhaps he thought it would all be over by now, so he may be dismayed by netanyahu's declaration of a "long and hard" war in Gaza. The longer it goes on the bigger the demonstrations will become.

 

Apparently the protest in Paris was banned, but it went ahead anyway.

 

Hundreds of thousands demonstrating against israel all over the world, and Erdogan has been forthright in his condemnation of israel, to the point that netanyahu has recalled the israeli diplomats from Turkey ( as seen on Al Jazeera ).

 

History may tell that certain leaders were on the wrong side, too soon.

 

Yes, all the hamas supporters came out and cheered on the eradication of the Jews, you must be proud! 

 

"Demography is Destiny" 

[thaibeachlovers]

Massive demonstrations around the world. The western leaders so eager to pay homage to netanyahu may yet come to regret it as the death toll of innocent children in Gaza mounts by the hour.

 

Even my local radio station has reported that the israelis have ordered the evacuation of a hospital with babies in incubators, not something the israelis would want on the news, for sure.

Seems the israelis are starting to lose the initial support they had post October 7, and by their actions are losing support of western people, even if the leaders remain committed.

 

What possible reason could there be for evacuating the hospital other than bombing it? Seems the israelis want to make the Gaza Strip de facto uninhabitable, even if they have to call an end to the current assault. Did netanyahu make a mistake by not invading 2 weeks ago? Perhaps he didn't think the hostages would make such a difference, but when the POTUS "suggests" a halt to try and get the hostages released, did even netanyahu have to wait?

[thaibeachlovers]

I've said before on this subforum that the "war" would be exported to attack soft israeli targets around the world. Happened already, when, according to Al Jazeera, a mob broke into the Dagestan airport, hunting for israelis after a plane from israel was reported to be landing.

Not looking good for israelis outside israel, and it's going to get worse as long as israel embargoes Gaza and keeps bombing them.

 

Just heard on Al Jazeera that the chief prosecutor of the ICC has said denying food etc into Gaza may be a war crime.

 

The tide is turning against israel, due to it's blockade and bombing.

The world has been watching.

[Morch]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Massive demonstrations around the world. The western leaders so eager to pay homage to netanyahu may yet come to regret it as the death toll of innocent children in Gaza mounts by the hour.

 

Even my local radio station has reported that the israelis have ordered the evacuation of a hospital with babies in incubators, not something the israelis would want on the news, for sure.

Seems the israelis are starting to lose the initial support they had post October 7, and by their actions are losing support of western people, even if the leaders remain committed.

 

What possible reason could there be for evacuating the hospital other than bombing it? Seems the israelis want to make the Gaza Strip de facto uninhabitable, even if they have to call an end to the current assault. Did netanyahu make a mistake by not invading 2 weeks ago? Perhaps he didn't think the hostages would make such a difference, but when the POTUS "suggests" a halt to try and get the hostages released, did even netanyahu have to wait?

 

It would be helpful if provided links to some of the things you post. A 'local radio station' can mean anything, and does not make the report correct.

 

As per hospitals in Gaza, there were details released by the IDF (and I think acknowledged by Western intel services) regarding Hamas HQ being located right under Gaza's largest hospital. Many links relaying relevant information on these topics, maybe AJ did not cover that so you wouldn't be aware.

 

The hyperbole you spew is nothing new - 'uninhabitable'? Do tell.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I've said before on this subforum that the "war" would be exported to attack soft israeli targets around the world. Happened already, when, according to Al Jazeera, a mob broke into the Dagestan airport, hunting for israelis after a plane from israel was reported to be landing.

Not looking good for israelis outside israel, and it's going to get worse as long as israel embargoes Gaza and keeps bombing them.

 

Just heard on Al Jazeera that the chief prosecutor of the ICC has said denying food etc into Gaza may be a war crime.

 

The tide is turning against israel, due to it's blockade and bombing.

The world has been watching.

 

Again, you don't do links to claims you make, so hard to tell if you're not aware of context and details, misleadingly ignore them or whether it shoddy reporting by AJ, your sole source of information.

 

Dagestan in a Muslim majority area, with Islamist insurrection issue. Even at normal times, passengers on Israeli flights are separated at the airport. No idea who thought it wise to continue flying there at this time. Oh, and the mob was actually calling out for Jews, not just Israelis.

 

Rioters storm airport in Russia’s Dagestan in hunt for Jews aboard flight from Israel

https://www.timesofisrael.com/rioters-overrun-russian-airport-in-hunt-for-jews-aboard-flight-from-israel/

 

Given the local population's leanings and views, hardly much of a tide-is-turning thing, more like expected.

 

As per you usual thrust with this - consider that international terrorism is frowned upon by most countries of the World. Going that way may not exactly do much favors for the Palestinian 'cause'. Don't think Thais were more receptive to things following past incidents, the 2012 Bangkok bombings, for example.

 

I'm pretty sure most national leaders have a better grasp of public trends in their own countries than you do. If public opinion was as overwhelmingly decided they way you suggest, their reactions would have been different. Then again, you keep ignoring the fact that the Hamas 7/10 attack resulted in foreign casualties and hostages.

 

 

[Yellowtail]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Massive demonstrations around the world. The western leaders so eager to pay homage to netanyahu may yet come to regret it as the death toll of innocent children in Gaza mounts by the hour.

 

Even my local radio station has reported that the israelis have ordered the evacuation of a hospital with babies in incubators, not something the israelis would want on the news, for sure.

Seems the israelis are starting to lose the initial support they had post October 7, and by their actions are losing support of western people, even if the leaders remain committed.

 

What possible reason could there be for evacuating the hospital other than bombing it? Seems the israelis want to make the Gaza Strip de facto uninhabitable, even if they have to call an end to the current assault. Did netanyahu make a mistake by not invading 2 weeks ago? Perhaps he didn't think the hostages would make such a difference, but when the POTUS "suggests" a halt to try and get the hostages released, did even netanyahu have to wait?

That's the hospital hamas built their headquarters under, correct? Maybe that's why. 

 

How many dead Jews will it take for you to be happy? 

[Yellowtail]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I've said before on this subforum that the "war" would be exported to attack soft israeli targets around the world. Happened already, when, according to Al Jazeera, a mob broke into the Dagestan airport, hunting for israelis after a plane from israel was reported to be landing.

Not looking good for israelis outside israel, and it's going to get worse as long as israel embargoes Gaza and keeps bombing them.

 

Just heard on Al Jazeera that the chief prosecutor of the ICC has said denying food etc into Gaza may be a war crime.

 

The tide is turning against israel, due to it's blockade and bombing.

The world has been watching.

Another proud moment for you huh? 

[Nick Carter icp]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I've said before on this subforum that the "war" would be exported to attack soft israeli targets around the world. Happened already, when, according to Al Jazeera, a mob broke into the Dagestan airport, hunting for israelis after a plane from israel was reported to be landing.

Not looking good for israelis outside israel, and it's going to get worse as long as israel embargoes Gaza and keeps bombing them.

 

 

 

 

   From all the news reports that I have seen , the people attacking Dagestan airport were looking for Jews to ham, rather than looking for Israelis .

[thaibeachlovers]

Given by the demonstrations in London and Paris, seems they have already failed, at least in the eyes of their citizens.

If not careful, history will not be kind to them.

[Nick Carter icp]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Given by the demonstrations in London and Paris, seems they have already failed, at least in the eyes of their citizens.

If not careful, history will not be kind to them.

 

   The current pro Palestinian demonstrations have been attended by a lot less people than usual 

[Morch]

24 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Given by the demonstrations in London and Paris, seems they have already failed, at least in the eyes of their citizens.

If not careful, history will not be kind to them.

 

How many of those attending are Muslim? How many newly (some more some less) arrived from Muslim countries?

I'm not making a claim regarding their citizenship (although that's another good question - are they all?), but as of them being representative of the entire population and its sentiments.

[thaibeachlovers]

Looks like Blinken's mission is on its way back to the US without much to show for it. Not much love being shown by Jordan and the Egyptians were quite frosty. Never mind, he got to be BFF with his buddy netanyahu again.

Apparently he's stopping off in Turkey, though he may wish to avoid that disappointment, as the Turks are not impressed.

It's not looking good for the US as support drains away as the populace of the western nations are increasing demands for a ceasefire.

 

Meanwhile in London, a HUGE demonstration in Trafalgar square demanding a ceasefire.

Large demonstrations in the US too, even outside the white House.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 11/5/2023 at 11:56 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Looks like Blinken's mission is on its way back to the US without much to show for it. Not much love being shown by Jordan and the Egyptians were quite frosty. Never mind, he got to be BFF with his buddy netanyahu again.

Apparently he's stopping off in Turkey, though he may wish to avoid that disappointment, as the Turks are not impressed.

It's not looking good for the US as support drains away as the populace of the western nations are increasing demands for a ceasefire.

 

Meanwhile in London, a HUGE demonstration in Trafalgar square demanding a ceasefire.

Large demonstrations in the US too, even outside the white House.

To the poster that put a laugh icon on that, please explain what is so funny?

Was it Blinken's waste of jet fuel mission that achieved nothing of any importance.

Was it his visit to Turkey that will likely result in some hard truths that Blinken would likely prefer not to hear.

Maybe it was the protests in London and Washington.

 

Perhaps the poster in question just likes putting laugh icons on any post that doesn't support THEIR viewpoint.

[Morch]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

To the poster that put a laugh icon on that, please explain what is so funny?

Was it Blinken's waste of jet fuel mission that achieved nothing of any importance.

Was it his visit to Turkey that will likely result in some hard truths that Blinken would likely prefer not to hear.

Maybe it was the protests in London and Washington.

 

Perhaps the poster in question just likes putting laugh icons on any post that doesn't support THEIR viewpoint.

 

I didn't put that icon on your post. But I could have. Do so with many other 'contributions' you make on various topics.

 

Your 'take' on things is often so warped it's amusing. Add the echo chamber effect of putting many posters on 'ignore' and relying solely on AJ - sometimes a good laugh is all there is to say about it.

 

In other words, it's not the news, it's you.

 

Quite amusing how seriously some on here take these emoticons.

I'll give the post I'm replying to one, for good measure.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 11/6/2023 at 12:24 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

To the poster that put a laugh icon on that, please explain what is so funny?

Was it Blinken's waste of jet fuel mission that achieved nothing of any importance.

Was it his visit to Turkey that will likely result in some hard truths that Blinken would likely prefer not to hear.

Maybe it was the protests in London and Washington.

 

Perhaps the poster in question just likes putting laugh icons on any post that doesn't support THEIR viewpoint.

There they go again.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 10/28/2023 at 7:48 PM, bobbin said:

Israel should include family members, including distant relatives,of known Hamas operatives. More internal pressure..

You are a fan of illegal collective punishment then?

 

I no longer wish to see your vile posts so off to ignore with you.

[bobbin]

43 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You are a fan of illegal collective punishment then?

 

I no longer wish to see your vile posts so off to ignore with you.

I am not a fan of collective punishment. If you had read many of my posts you would know this..

 

Your quote, taken out of context, refers to negotiations over hostage/Palestinian prisoners.

 

Having Hamas members with family members being released adds to internal pressures to make a deal. I see now that Hamas wants all 5000 Palestinians released so my point is no longer relevant.

 

As to your point that my posts are vile.. well nice flounce, but incorrect.

 

If you have already put me on ignore you will not see this reply but everyone else will..

[thaibeachlovers]

After a month of unrelenting bombing and over 10,000 dead Gazans, seems the tide is turning in Europe. Even Macron is now saying that Palestinian lives are worth as much as anyone else's.

 

Is it possible that world pressure will give the Palestinians a real homeland free from israeli occupation? I for one hope so.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/09/emmanuel-macron-rejects-israeli-plan-for-safe-zones-in-southern-gaza

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has rejected Israeli plans to push civilians into safe zones in the south of Gaza and said the world must pursue a humanitarian ceasefire as the only way to save lives in the territory. He was opening a hastily assembled humanitarian conference in Paris attended by politicians, NGOs and leaders of the UN humanitarian movement.