Big layoffs ahead in the automotive workshop sector - hold on to your hats!

[hotchilli]

12 hours ago, george said:

The electric car fleet is growing and it is at the expense of fossil-fueled vehicles. As is well known, an electric car does not require regular basic service, but can travel much longer distances without having to visit a workshop.

Imagine all the lay-offs nationwide in the supply and maintenance sectors, plus the lay-offs in the production lines as things become more automated.

[JBChiangRai]

Just now, Celsius said:

 

ChatGPT

 

Really?

 

Ah, now I see your comprehension problem.

 

I didn't use ChatGPT, go back and read my post and whilst you're at it, do some "REAL" research on EV sales, a market growing at an annual rate of 50% is definitely not "Dead" ("I am in Canada right now and EV is dead, save for occasional Tesla. ")

[JBChiangRai]

14 minutes ago, Muhendis said:

This is right but the unmentioned caveat is the length of journey between charges becomes less and less over the years.

Lithium ion batteries, like all other chemistries, will fade.

Keeping the batteries fully charged in high ambient temperatures they fade quicker.

Trying to charge them in very low ambient temperatures will destroy them quickly.

 

 

Yes, decline in range will happen, studies are suggesting 20% loss over 18 years.

 

I try to minimise this by only charging to 80-85% unless I have a long journey planned which I do once or twice a month.

[RichardColeman]

Until they have electric charging stations more common than 711's here, then this whole EV thing is doomed to failure

[cdemundo]

12 hours ago, Korat Kiwi said:

There is the beginnings of a backlash in many countries already. 

 

Chinese taxi companies that put big dollars into a complete overhaul are finding no resale in used EVs. 

 

Power prices are rising and some countries are introducing road user charges for EVs. 

 

So all is not as some people paint it. 

 

Battery replacement is also another big cost.  7 years life on 1st Gen EVs.  I feel for those poor suckers. 

 

I think in the future EVs will take over,  but not at this moment.  Too many unknowns 

"Power prices are rising and some countries are introducing road user charges for EVs. "

 

Yes tax on gas/petrol/diesel has been a "use tax" in many places and this tax income was devoted to road maintenance.

How to replace that with EVs?

[Ralf001]

10 hours ago, Celsius said:

I am in Canada right now and EV is dead, save for occasional Tesla. 

I just spent 3 weeks in Michigan.

 

I dont think I saw a single EV during that period....Ditto for charging stations,  To be fair though I was not driving on the roads 24/7.

[Celsius]

4 hours ago, Ralf001 said:

I just spent 3 weeks in Michigan.

 

I dont think I saw a single EV during that period....Ditto for charging stations,  To be fair though I was not driving on the roads 24/7.

 

In US, car rental companies are dumping EV cars. 

[JBChiangRai]

14 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Until they have electric charging stations more common than 711's here, then this whole EV thing is doomed to failure

 

Charging an EV is different from an ICE.

 

You typically charge it at home and wake up every day to a full tank of electrons.

 

EV's have a range of between 350 and 650km typically, you don't need any charging stations within a radius of 150km and if you're on a long journey, 300km.

 

Almost all your local petrol stations will close because they are unneeded.

[quake]

10 hours ago, Ben Zioner said:

ICE and VHS same same.

 

EV and Floppy Disk,  same same.

[JBChiangRai]

27 minutes ago, Celsius said:

 

In US, car rental companies are dumping EV cars. 

 

In the US A car rental company is dumping EV cars.

 

Correct me if I am wrong.

 

13 minutes ago, quake said:

 

EV and Floppy Disk,  same same.

 

Hardly, the technology is completely different. 

 

On a use case, the floppy disk was superseded by a better technology, I can't see any better technology than battery EV's.

[brianthainess]

 

12 hours ago, eisfeld said:

 

What does that have to do with Thailand and why is it a ripoff? That's been standard practice for many years now world-wide. It takes a while but eventually independent workshops also get access in most cases.

All cars computer systems for example, not an EV but I have a Nissan and if the engine service light comes on the only people that can access the diagnostic on board system are Nissan to find the problem, in other countries like the US there are other people with a plug in diagnostic 'box' that can access it and diagnose the fault, I have yet to find any 'Normal' workshops that can do that. I can't see that changing with EVs anytime soon.

[JBChiangRai]

3 minutes ago, brianthainess said:

 

All cars computer systems for example, not an EV but I have a Nissan and if the engine service light comes on the only people that can access the diagnostic on board system are Nissan to find the problem, in other countries like the US there are other people with a plug in diagnostic 'box' that can access it and diagnose the fault, I have yet to find any 'Normal' workshops that can do that. I can't see that changing with EVs anytime soon.

 

It's already happening in the US with Tesla.  Tesla's cars are not open technology and their battery packs according to Tesla are unrepairable.

 

A whole industry has grown up repairing those unrepairable battery packs and repairing other closed technology items like power electronic modules, MCU's etc.

 

I think it will be a couple of years before we see that here, but it will come.

[quake]

39 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

Hardly, the technology is completely different. 

On a use case, the floppy disk was superseded by a better technology, I can't see any better technology than battery EV's.

 

You EV girls are devoid of any sense of humor. 

 

 

[JBChiangRai]

Just now, quake said:

 

You EV girls are devoid of any sense of humor. 

 

 

 

Not true, I laugh every time I read your posts.

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Charging an EV is different from an ICE.

 

You typically charge it at home and wake up every day to a full tank of electrons.

 

EV's have a range of between 350 and 650km typically, you don't need any charging stations within a radius of 150km and if you're on a long journey, 300km.

 

Almost all your local petrol stations will close because they are unneeded.

It will be a very long time before your local petrol station will close in Thailand

EV's in Thailand currently represent 0.08% of all registered cars in Thailand 

[Hellfire]

12 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I think EVs are a fad that will soon pass.

I think the truth is in the middle: not a fad but, also, there is nothing truly revolutionary about it. Does it matter if one gets fast and almost effortlessly from point A to point B using petrol or electricity? The result is the same (it is something that was introduced to a wide public well over 100 years ago).

 

 

[eisfeld]

44 minutes ago, brianthainess said:

 

All cars computer systems for example, not an EV but I have a Nissan and if the engine service light comes on the only people that can access the diagnostic on board system are Nissan to find the problem, in other countries like the US there are other people with a plug in diagnostic 'box' that can access it and diagnose the fault, I have yet to find any 'Normal' workshops that can do that. I can't see that changing with EVs anytime soon.

 

Just means you don't have any competent workshops for that model in your area. There are plenty of workshops in Thailand which have the tools and knowledge to get into the ECUs of many car models. Especially for tuning purposes but if they can do that then they usually can do anything service related as well. Maybe just no-one bothers with that Nissan model. My car is a Honda and they have shops that can do anything with it even flashing different fuel maps if I wanted to. Same with my motorbikes. Just had my Ducati at a shop which has the tools to access it all. Clear error codes, service indicator etc.

 

Anyways it's really not Thailand or EV specific.

[transam]

13 hours ago, brianthainess said:

Another rip off by the manufactures as in Thailand it seems only they can get into the cars diagnostic computer and you have to pay there rip off prices for parts. Hopefully in the future in Thailand other workshops will learn how to use there own "Box' to diagnose.

Do you know what you are talking about...........?   🤐

[transam]

57 minutes ago, brianthainess said:

 

All cars computer systems for example, not an EV but I have a Nissan and if the engine service light comes on the only people that can access the diagnostic on board system are Nissan to find the problem, in other countries like the US there are other people with a plug in diagnostic 'box' that can access it and diagnose the fault, I have yet to find any 'Normal' workshops that can do that. I can't see that changing with EVs anytime soon.

Wrong..........

[JBChiangRai]

11 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

It will be a very long time before your local petrol station will close in Thailand

EV's in Thailand currently represent 0.08% of all registered cars in Thailand 

 

Can we please have a source for that statistic?

[BTB1977]

Ev cars will never replace petrol cars. People aren't that stupid to own a plug in car. There is absolutely no place to charge 100 cars every hour. Look at the number of vehicles that come and go at any PTT in an hours time. 

[JBChiangRai]

Just now, BTB1977 said:

Ev cars will never replace petrol cars. People aren't that stupid to own a plug in car. There is absolutely no place to charge 100 cars every hour. Look at the number of vehicles that come and go at any PTT in an hours time. 

 

You don't understand the concept.

 

Why would you need a place to charge 100 cars every hour?  Most of your charging is done at home overnight.

[vinny41]

5 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

Can we please have a source for that statistic?

Thailand Number of Registered Vehicles was reported at 20,493,253 Unit in Feb 2024 excluding motorcycles

if you include motorcycles the total would be closer to 44 million

Once you exclude commercial and agricultural vehicles  that leaves approx 12.5 million vehicles on the road

remove all the EV registered between  January 2020 and 31st January 2024 approx 102,090 or in % terms 0.8% so approx 12.4 million ice vehicles registered on the road January 2024

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/number-of-registered-vehicles#:~:text=Thailand

The figures can be found on the internet unfortunately from media links that are not allowed on these forums

[Hellfire]

They would start producing electrical vehicles at the end of 19 (!!!) century if only they had batteries with proper capacity at the time. This is how "new" and "original" this whole electrical revolution is.

 

From H.Ford's book (describing the end of 19 century period):

 

"Practically no one had the remotest notion of the future of the internal combustion engine, while we were just on the edge of the great electrical development. As with every comparatively new idea, electricity was expected to do much more than we even now have any indication that it can do. I did not see the use of experimenting with electricity for my purposes. A road car could not run on a trolley even if trolley wires had been less expensive; no storage battery was in sight of a weight that was practical. An electrical car had of necessity to be limited in radius and to contain a large amount of motive machinery in proportion to the power exerted. That is not to say that I held or now hold electricity cheaply; we have not yet begun to use electricity. But it has its place, and the internal combustion engine has its place".

 

 

[connda]

14 hours ago, george said:

The electric car fleet is growing and it is at the expense of fossil-fueled vehicles.

Until reality hit.

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, george said:

However, there is salvation, and that is specialized labor. For 20-30 years, cars have become increasingly computerized, and this requires a new type of mechanic who not only replaces parts, but has the ability to make deeper analyzes and more advanced troubleshooting.

IMO wrong. Computerised cars, whether ICE or electric need a specialised diagnostic set up and that tells the mechanic what needs replacing. I doubt mechanics actually "fix" anything now, but are just part changers.

The days of mechanics "diagnosing" defects, other than on non computerised parts eg brake pads, are going going ............

 

I asked the best mechanic I ever knew how he fixed a computerised car and his answer was "I don't". It just gets plugged into the diagnostic machine.

 

The days of boys fixing their cars in the backyard are going if not gone.

 

IMO it's a shame and just another reason why I hate modern life, that I can't even fix my own car anymore.

[thaibeachlovers]

6 minutes ago, connda said:

Until reality hit.

Just wait till the big electricity shut down happens and all those with electric cars can't go anywhere.

 

[transam]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Just wait till the big electricity shut down happens and all those with electric cars can't go anywhere.

 

Is that the same for those with solar at home for charging their EV, which in LOS would be a sensible idea..........?   🤔

Perhaps think before you laugh.....🥴

[thaibeachlovers]

18 minutes ago, BTB1977 said:

Ev cars will never replace petrol cars. People aren't that stupid to own a plug in car. There is absolutely no place to charge 100 cars every hour. Look at the number of vehicles that come and go at any PTT in an hours time. 

Never say never. We have no idea what the next battery technology will look like.

My antipathy to EVs isn't that they are electric, but because they are too expensive, the battery life means there will be no second hand market to provide cheap cars, they take to long to "refuel" when on a long road trip, there are no power points off road, and they are too polluting to make and break.

[JBChiangRai]

14 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Thailand Number of Registered Vehicles was reported at 20,493,253 Unit in Feb 2024 excluding motorcycles

if you include motorcycles the total would be closer to 44 million

Once you exclude commercial and agricultural vehicles  that leaves approx 12.5 million vehicles on the road

remove all the EV registered between  January 2020 and 31st January 2024 approx 102,090 or in % terms 0.8% so approx 12.4 million ice vehicles registered on the road January 2024

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/thailand/number-of-registered-vehicles#:~:text=Thailand

The figures can be found on the internet unfortunately from media links that are not allowed on these forums

 

I think your figures are off but not by much.

 

The important thing to recognise is that sales and market share is accelerating.  Thailand is on it's way to mass EV adoption.  In another 11 years your only option for a new car will be EV.