Joe Biden Is Now Beating Donald Trump With Republican Pollsters As Well

[JCauto]

On 4/18/2024 at 2:01 PM, john donson said:

if you let ILLEGALS vote with no id and pay then 1000$ a month and free housing and remind them to vote for daddy biden

 

This evidence-free post with zero attribution brought to you by...MAGA! We're deluded, we don't care about facts, we just want to hurt other people who aren't like us.

[JCauto]

On 4/18/2024 at 2:33 PM, blazes said:

 

Anyone seeing this woman as "intelligent" must have a screw loose.

She is the dumbest thing on two legs, running the Big Man very close in the lack-of-brain dept.

 

If only she had the caliber of Jenna Ellis, or Alina Habba, or Lara Trump! Those be some smart wimmens! And they know their place too! Why Trump not have smart wimmins as running mate? Why only dumb wimmens in Republican Party? And I know you won't count Caitlyn Jenner, one of the leading intellectual lights of the MAGA movement since she ain't "real". How about MTG? Bo-bo? Is there a single woman with a brain in the Republican Party?

[JCauto]

On 4/18/2024 at 2:38 PM, JonnyF said:

 

Only when the sample size is 0.0006% of the voting population. 

 

How'd you feel about them polls when they showed Trump winning? That was DIFFERENT! Right?

[JCauto]

On 4/18/2024 at 3:09 PM, eisfeld said:

 

Jonny in Statistics a sample size of just over 1000 is usually enough to make statistically significant statements with low margin of error regardless of the population size. You choose a certain confidence (usually 95%) and then you get back a margin of error. One thing that has to be taken into account is the standard deviation in your results. The math formulas don't have the population size as variable in them which tells us the population size does not matter.

 

The more often you conduct a random trial (a poll vote) the more smaller your window of possible results (margin of error) will get. Flip a coin 1000 times and you will be quite confident that even if you flipped it a trillion more times you'll get a 50/50 chance of head or tail.

 

If you are interested to see how this works here's an article that's not bad: https://towardsdatascience.com/statistical-foundations-of-election-poll-c1fade2dce2e

 

That's why you will see nearly every poll use a sample size of just over 1000. That's when the math says it's good enough. What you should be cautious about though is how a poll was conducted. E.g. the exact people they asked, the questions they asked and so on. That's where a lot of room for manipulation and mistake lies. That being said, it's not a great result when a poll conducted by Republicans shows Biden leading.

 

As someone like yourself who understands mathematics, allow me to observe that this argument holds no water with those like JonnyF for whom facts are irrelevant and who basically believe that "mathematics is a lie" when it shows results they don't like. On the other hand, when the results please him, he'll be just as ready to publish his QED with the exact same margins of error. Quick JonnyF - what does QED mean? No looking it up!

[JCauto]

On 4/18/2024 at 6:07 PM, proton said:

 

Biden has probably claimed his grand pappy was at the battle! The CSA of course had just as much right to leave the Union as the 13 colonies had to leave the crown, probably more right. The tyrant Lincoln of course had other ideas and wasted 700k lives invading the south to stop the split. They don't teach this in schools but Lincoln offered Davis a deal, if he would re join the Union he would keep slavery for another 37 years until 1900, the great emancipator!

 

Yes, why discuss something that has actually happened and actually been said when the words of your idol are actually written down in front of you? Better to invent an imaginary claim that nobody has ever heard or heard said. Then let's go back to the 1900's and the Civil War because that's REALLY what this election is about. LOL. It is reminding me of a certain song from the Wizard of Oz (sung by the Straw Man, so doubly apropos). Actually, that's a good allegory for our current discussion. We have Dorothy, played by Kamala Harris, and the three MAGA representing the heartless, the brainless and the cowardly.

[JCauto]

On 4/18/2024 at 6:23 PM, eisfeld said:

 

I posted a link which has an explanation for newbies and also includes the math. You could use it as a refresher. I am surprised how someone who took statistics does not know the basics. But then again I interviewed someone last week for a job who also claimed to have taken a statistics course and didn't know the slightest bit about... well statistics. I don't know what some schools teach in their statisticics courses but it ain't statistics it seems.

 

Just wanted to note that he said he "took" statistics, he never said anything about "passing" his statistics course...

[JCauto]

On 4/18/2024 at 7:11 PM, NickyLouie said:

 

He sure didn't hand out money unaccounted for to Ukraine and he reigned in Rocket Boy from North Korea which was a class diplomatic move.

 

You're another soft handed type blinded by the presence of an Alpha Male, did Biden also sniff you ?

 

LOL! Yes, sure, he really "reigned in" Rocket Boy.

 

And I know for sure that whenever a dude refers to himself or someone they admire as an "Alpha Male", they're somewhere between psi and omega. Did you manage to scare up the $18,000 to go learn how to be like your heroes?

Here's a link to the rest of you Alphas or wannabe Alphas - only $18,000 and YOU TOO COULD BE AN ALPHA MALE! Always put yourself first! Never argue with a woman! You make ALL the decisions!

 

https://mhnministries.com/pages/alpha-male-dominance-and-masculinity-boot-camp

I'm just so skeered of you macho Alphamen! LOL!

 

EDIT: Forgot the link. Get in there Future Alpha Boys!

[JCauto]

On 4/18/2024 at 7:56 PM, riclag said:

I never heard of Echelon!

Somebody who gathers the news is as desperate to change the polling narrative as bidens woke campaign strategist are.

The Past polling work by a new polling company has been reviewed in The article below . It doesn’t 

Give much credibility towards past attempts.

Nice try though , trying to get bidens

Supporters hopes up, after all his Presidency  is a train wreck!

 

imop

 

 

https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2024/04/poll-watch-right-wing-firm-echelon-insights-drops-another-skewed-survey-to-boost-dave-reicherts-gubernatorial-ambitions.html

 

Not sure where to start on this. Perhaps just with "there there, now put the keyboard away Mr. Riclag, it's time for your metamucil and green jello".

Attacking your own pollsters is not the flex that you think it is...

[JCauto]

20 hours ago, candide said:

And the biased CNN did not report the part when Hillary organised a  "stop the steal" protest and sent her supporters to assault the Capitol in order to block the certification of Trump's victory! 😆

 

Yeah? Show us the video of the Democratic assault on the Capitol with the violence, the B&E, the attempts to take over the Senate...

[Sandboxer]

400m people and these two are the only ones the most powerful country on earth can come up with, lol.

 

Never mind the existence of political dynasties like the Bushes/Clintons/Kennedys etc. 

 

Having said that, I'd probably rather vote for the guy who notwithstanding SOME questionable morals and frequent "old man moments" is still better than the guy who has been a complete package a-hole since birth. 

[proton]

39 minutes ago, JCauto said:

 

Yes, why discuss something that has actually happened and actually been said when the words of your idol are actually written down in front of you? Better to invent an imaginary claim that nobody has ever heard or heard said. Then let's go back to the 1900's and the Civil War because that's REALLY what this election is about. LOL. It is reminding me of a certain song from the Wizard of Oz (sung by the Straw Man, so doubly apropos). Actually, that's a good allegory for our current discussion. We have Dorothy, played by Kamala Harris, and the three MAGA representing the heartless, the brainless and the cowardly.

 

Bidens latest lie is that his uncle, who he never met as he was only 2 when the guy was in the war was eaten by cannibals. The plane he was in was not shot down, another Biden lie, and there is no proof he was eaten by anyone. At least he did not dig his son up again!

[Trippy]

3 minutes ago, Sandboxer said:

400m people and these two are the only ones the most powerful country on earth can come up with, lol.

 

As one of those 400m I ask myself that same question every time I watch the news. Both candidates are a disgrace.  

[blazes]

52 minutes ago, JCauto said:

who basically believe that "mathematics is a lie" when it shows results they don't like

 

Miss Cauto, you are a very tiresome poster.  However, your fatuous splenetic comments do have the virtue of demonstrating the depth of your ignorance.

 

Did you not know that it is your lot (those Democrats who believe that the foundations of Western Civilization are entirely racist) have spent the last few years claiming that mathematics is "racist".  And therefore our children should be allowed to claim that 2+2 = 5, because that is "their truth".   Welcome to the lala land of the likes of Meghan Markle (and J Cauto).

[bunnydrops]

11 minutes ago, proton said:

 

Bidens latest lie is that his uncle, who he never met as he was only 2 when the guy was in the war was eaten by cannibals. The plane he was in was not shot down, another Biden lie, and there is no proof he was eaten by anyone. At least he did not dig his son up again!

Trump met with the family

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/02/trump-ruby-garcia-michigan-murder/

[charleskerins]

2 hours ago, JCauto said:

 

There's far far far too many, including on these pages. However, fortunately, there's far far far too few to win an election.

there certainly are a dedicated group on here

[candide]

1 hour ago, JCauto said:

 

Yeah? Show us the video of the Democratic assault on the Capitol with the violence, the B&E, the attempts to take over the Senate...

Didn't you notice the laughing emoji in my post?

[JCauto]

5 minutes ago, blazes said:

 

Miss Cauto, you are a very tiresome poster.  However, your fatuous splenetic comments do have the virtue of demonstrating the depth of your ignorance.

 

Did you not know that it is your lot (those Democrats who believe that the foundations of Western Civilization are entirely racist) have spent the last few years claiming that mathematics is "racist".  And therefore our children should be allowed to claim that 2+2 = 5, because that is "their truth".   Welcome to the lala land of the likes of Meghan Markle (and J Cauto).

 

Thank you for your compliments on my work - if I wrote something that you agreed with, I'd have to go back and make sure I hadn't misspoken.

 

So let's see what sort of quality response we have managed to elicit...an imaginary story about Democrats with no attribution! How unusual! No doubt you'll now have to go into the Breitbart archives to unearth some minor comments by a radical individual whom you can then state is representative of all Democrats and all of their views on Mathematics. Well, I got an idea...let's see who the people who vote Democrat are with respect to education?

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/partisanship-by-race-ethnicity-and-education/

 

But you probably already knew that. Insert your favourite "liberal university indoctrination" meme.
 

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, proton said:

 

Bidens latest lie is that his uncle, who he never met as he was only 2 when the guy was in the war was eaten by cannibals. The plane he was in was not shot down, another Biden lie, and there is no proof he was eaten by anyone. At least he did not dig his son up again!

Biden told a family story, which often aren't true.

[JCauto]

16 minutes ago, candide said:

Didn't you notice the laughing emoji in my post?

 

Oh sorry, was mid-coffee when I saw it.

[JCauto]

1 hour ago, proton said:

 

Bidens latest lie is that his uncle, who he never met as he was only 2 when the guy was in the war was eaten by cannibals. The plane he was in was not shot down, another Biden lie, and there is no proof he was eaten by anyone. At least he did not dig his son up again!

 

This method of debate is so old the Romans had a specific phrase for it - non sequitur. It means a conclusion or reply that doesn't follow logically from the previous statement. Why are you talking about this when it had nothing to do with the previous discussion? Are you so bereft of argument that reflexively braying "Biden lie" is all you can do?

[Danderman123]

I am wondering if the Republicans are going to have a real convention this year. I am sure there will be a big room with people, but I suspect they will leave a lot out.

 

Conversely, the Dems will probably have big names doing the " get out the vote" thing.

[proton]

9 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Biden told a family story, which often aren't true.

 

Which are usually bare faced lies, he's not done the one about showering with teenage daughter Ashley yet, which according to her diary was true and abuse. In fact he never mentions her at all, it's always the dead son and the drug user one which he's 'proud of'.

[Danderman123]

2 minutes ago, proton said:

 

Which are usually bare faced lies, he's not done the one about showering with teenage daughter Ashley yet, which according to her diary was true and abuse. In fact he never mentions her at all, it's always the dead son and the drug user one which he's 'proud of'.

Are you referring to Ashley's stolen diary?

[transam]

2 minutes ago, proton said:

 

Which are usually bare faced lies, he's not done the one about showering with teenage daughter Ashley yet, which according to her diary was true and abuse. In fact he never mentions her at all, it's always the dead son and the drug user one which he's 'proud of'.

Links, please.......

[proton]

25 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Are you referring to Ashley's stolen diary?

 Found, not stolen, contents have been online a long time so indisputable

[transam]

6 minutes ago, proton said:

 Found, not stolen, contents have been online a long time so indisputable

Links please....

[Danderman123]

15 minutes ago, proton said:

 Found, not stolen, contents have been online a long time so indisputable

Woman who stole and sold Ashley Biden diary sentenced to month in jail and home detention

 

Your internet friends must be working overtime to make you look foolish here. I'll give you a hint: when someone passes you a talking point, check it out before posting.

[Danderman123]

11 minutes ago, transam said:

Links please....

Don't bother. 

 

The diary was stolen, there's no chain of custody, so anything in it is suspect.

[proton]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Woman who stole and sold Ashley Biden diary sentenced to month in jail and home detention

 

Your internet friends must be working overtime to make you look foolish here. I'll give you a hint: when someone passes you a talking point, check it out before posting.

 

Found or stolen is irrelevant, it's the contents that are important

[metisdead]

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