Analysis Paetongtarn’s Refusal to Step Down Seen as Key to Court Survival

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Thailand's suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra arrives at parliament in Bangkok, Thailand, Friday, Aug. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

 

ANALYSIS

 

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, suspended prime minister of Thailand, is confidently awaiting an imminent court verdict on an impeachment lawsuit, despite being temporarily removed from office.

 

The decision, expected on August 29, stems from a tumultuous political saga involving treason charges linked to a controversial phone call with Cambodian leader Hun Sen. Political insider Pornchai Theppanya predicts Paetongtarn's determination to remain in her position indicates a strong belief in her eventual courtroom victory.

 

The accusations against Paetongtarn, daughter of political heavyweight Thaksin Shinawatra, revolve around a leaked conversation discussing conflict at the Thai-Cambodian border. The charges allege unethical conduct and treason, following clashes that resulted in numerous casualties.

 

Despite the serious allegations, Paetongtarn is expected to address the Constitutional Court today, defending against the claims with prior affidavits submitted in her favour.

 

Amidst the legal turmoil, rumours of secret financial dealings have surfaced, suggesting hefty payouts to guarantee Paetongtarn's political survival. However, Pornchai dismisses these theories, arguing that the alleged sums are implausibly high and unlikely to tempt respected judges.

 

He cites the considerable risks to the judges' reputations and legal consequences as strong deterrents against such actions, reported Thai Newsroom.

 

The politically charged atmosphere has generated mixed forecasts from various factions. Supporters within the Pheu Thai Party anticipate a narrow 5:4 victory for Paetongtarn, while critics, including political analyst Thanaporn Sriyakul, suggest only a slim chance of success, reported Thai Newsroom.

 

Some draw parallels to Thaksin's 2001 impeachment case, suggesting that Paetongtarn could receive similar leniency if her actions are considered inadvertent errors without malicious intent.

 

Thaksin's influential role remains central to the unfolding drama, which has implications for future political manoeuvres. Should Paetongtarn's removal occur, speculation would focus on potential contenders such as Anutin Charnvirakul, an opposition rival from the Bhumjaithai Party.

 

The high stakes are underscored by Thaksin's aspirations to maintain his party's dominance, with or without Bhumjaithai as coalition partners.

 

The nation is closely monitoring the outcome, which will not only determine Paetongtarn's political fate but also shape Thailand's broader political landscape, as power dynamics are at risk. The coming days will reveal whether Paetongtarn's steadfast refusal to step down was a testament to justified confidence or a misjudged gamble.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Thai Newsroom 2025-08-21

 

[Pouatchee]

it's already fixed and everyone already knows the verdict...