Thailand's suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra arrives at parliament in Bangkok, Thailand, Friday, Aug. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit)

 

ANALYSIS

 

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, suspended prime minister of Thailand, is confidently awaiting an imminent court verdict on an impeachment lawsuit, despite being temporarily removed from office.

 

The decision, expected on August 29, stems from a tumultuous political saga involving treason charges linked to a controversial phone call with Cambodian leader Hun Sen. Political insider Pornchai Theppanya predicts Paetongtarn's determination to remain in her position indicates a strong belief in her eventual courtroom victory.

 

The accusations against Paetongtarn, daughter of political heavyweight Thaksin Shinawatra, revolve around a leaked conversation discussing conflict at the Thai-Cambodian border. The charges allege unethical conduct and treason, following clashes that resulted in numerous casualties.

 

Despite the serious allegations, Paetongtarn is expected to address the Constitutional Court today, defending against the claims with prior affidavits submitted in her favour.

 

Amidst the legal turmoil, rumours of secret financial dealings have surfaced, suggesting hefty payouts to guarantee Paetongtarn's political survival. However, Pornchai dismisses these theories, arguing that the alleged sums are implausibly high and unlikely to tempt respected judges.

 

He cites the considerable risks to the judges' reputations and legal consequences as strong deterrents against such actions, reported Thai Newsroom.

 

The politically charged atmosphere has generated mixed forecasts from various factions. Supporters within the Pheu Thai Party anticipate a narrow 5:4 victory for Paetongtarn, while critics, including political analyst Thanaporn Sriyakul, suggest only a slim chance of success, reported Thai Newsroom.

 

Some draw parallels to Thaksin's 2001 impeachment case, suggesting that Paetongtarn could receive similar leniency if her actions are considered inadvertent errors without malicious intent.

 

Thaksin's influential role remains central to the unfolding drama, which has implications for future political manoeuvres. Should Paetongtarn's removal occur, speculation would focus on potential contenders such as Anutin Charnvirakul, an opposition rival from the Bhumjaithai Party.

 

The high stakes are underscored by Thaksin's aspirations to maintain his party's dominance, with or without Bhumjaithai as coalition partners.

 

The nation is closely monitoring the outcome, which will not only determine Paetongtarn's political fate but also shape Thailand's broader political landscape, as power dynamics are at risk. The coming days will reveal whether Paetongtarn's steadfast refusal to step down was a testament to justified confidence or a misjudged gamble.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Thai Newsroom 2025-08-21

 

it's already fixed and everyone already knows the verdict...

In any civilized country they would had have resigned immediately

Keep the jet on alert.

 

 

6 minutes ago, JoePai said:

In any civilized country they would had have resigned immediately

 

 

Agree. If she had any character she would have resigned.

 

Nepo Baby.

 

4 hours ago, webfact said:

He cites the considerable risks to the judges' reputations and legal consequences as strong deterrents against such actions, reported Thai Newsroom.

Thaksin has enough money to make a deal that can't be refused -- times nine. 

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Amidst the legal turmoil, rumours of secret financial dealings have surfaced, suggesting hefty payouts to guarantee Paetongtarn's political survival. However, Pornchai dismisses these theories, arguing that the alleged sums are implausibly high and unlikely to tempt respected judges.

The fix is in for sure... Thaksin has billions at his disposal

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Amidst the legal turmoil, rumours of secret financial dealings have surfaced, suggesting hefty payouts to guarantee Paetongtarn's political survival.

Say it isn't so. The Thaksin family would never resort to paying bribes to judges to win their case, would they? 

 

4 hours ago, webfact said:

He cites the considerable risks to the judges' reputations and legal consequences as strong deterrents against such actions

The only deterrent is if they get caught. Highly unlikely and very difficult to prove. 

 

4 hours ago, webfact said:

The nation is closely monitoring the outcome,

Most people already know what the outcome will be. Or at the least, suspect what it will be. Even Thaksin and family know this already. 

time for  her....    

 

then for dad ... 

 

 

4 hours ago, Pouatchee said:

it's already fixed and everyone already knows the verdict...

 

Why does anyone think he has been donating so much money to the military.  Let's face it he kows how to play the game.  Also there is not the financial incentive but I am sure he has dirt on every one of the constituional court judges 

57 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

The fix is in for sure... Thaksin has billions at his disposal

Yes he has billions but theelite that hate him have more so it becomes a game of chicken

My prediction is that she's a goner.

If the court decides otherwise, prepare for mass protests to take place.

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

arguing that the alleged sums are implausibly high and unlikely to tempt respected judges.

So, um, a lower amount would be plausible?

Ben Hart's YT channel is saying that the interim PM is a former Communist.  Does anyone have any info on this??

If pigs could fly .............. 

1 hour ago, MarcelV said:

My prediction is that she's a goner.

If the court decides otherwise, prepare for mass protests to take place.

Thais are too lethargic... minimal protest at best, the rest will go to work as usual thinking they cannot change anything...

Which is why nothing changes.

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

Thais are too lethargic... minimal protest at best, the rest will go to work as usual thinking they cannot change anything...

Which is why nothing changes.

 

I would agree......once you are over 25?....the fire has gone out here....ground down by all the corruption: life is hard and then you face nothing but the futility of it all.

 

Unless the younger ones can organise, the show just rolls on......and the rich get richer.

17 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

 

I would agree......once you are over 25?....the fire has gone out here....ground down by all the corruption: life is hard and then you face nothing but the futility of it all.

 

Unless the younger ones can organise, the show just rolls on......and the rich get richer.

Exactly 

3 hours ago, Felton Jarvis said:

Ben Hart's YT channel is saying that the interim PM is a former Communist.  Does anyone have any info on this??

 

There was a Communist insurgency here from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s.

 

The U.S. helped put it down.

 

Phumtham was in the CPT briefly. I assume that's what Ben "That Being Said" Hart is referring to? I'm not sure he should be harping on about this but he's a weird dude.

11 minutes ago, bamnutsak said:

 

There was a Communist insurgency here from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s.

 

The U.S. helped put it down.

 

Phumtham was in the CPT briefly. I assume that's what Ben "That Being Said" Hart is referring to? I'm not sure he should be harping on about this but he's a weird dude.

I frequently cannot follow Ben Hart's logic. Obviously, I am not the only one.

2 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Thais are too lethargic... minimal protest at best, the rest will go to work as usual thinking they cannot change anything...

Which is why nothing changes.

Unless they are supported  by the military, then the people will always be subjugated by it. The military support the Elite, whom the people revere (as they are taught to do ). 

it's self perpetuating, which is why nothing changes. 

1 hour ago, bamnutsak said:

There was a Communist insurgency here from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s.

 

The U.S. helped put it down.

A successful Communist insurgency is arguably about the only thing that will ever move Thai social and political arrangements in to the 21st century.

 

Which, coming from a right-of-centre sort of person like me, about sums up the Thailand we live in.

Now its daddy's turn:

 

BREAKING: The Criminal Court is scheduled to rule on the lèse-majesté case against former PM Thaksin Shinawatra tomorrow, August 22. A media gag order has been issued, prohibiting reporters from attending the hearing.

@PravitR's take:

If found guilty, although Thaksin could appeal, it will significantly undermine the power of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, which is perceived to be under Thaksin's guidance if not control. Also, not allowing reporters inside the courtroom further reminded the world that the royal defamation law is problematic.

 

https://x.com/KhaosodEnglish/status/1958443876102148152

 

I think the result is already made as a few exchanges may have been made in a colored paper bag possibly.

On 8/21/2025 at 10:44 AM, Felton Jarvis said:

Ben Hart's YT channel is saying that the interim PM is a former Communist.  Does anyone have any info on this??

Ben Hart is a far-right nutcase. Don't listen to him.

On 8/21/2025 at 10:44 AM, Felton Jarvis said:

Ben Hart's YT channel is saying that the interim PM is a former Communist.  Does anyone have any info on this??

 

It is true.  He fled into the jungle after the Thammasat University massacre in 1976 and joined the communists fighting the Thai military.  Apparently he was known by the name of Comrade Yai.  Many students did the same thing, if they knew their names on the proscribed lists drawn up the coup government and right wing vigilante groups allied the government.  They went on a murder spree of students and trade unionists. Anyone working for a student newspaper, regardless of political views, or thought to have been involved in demos or friends with those who were was at risk.  Chaturon, a minister in the Thaksin government was another who fled and joined the communists.  I have met some of this generation.  Most were left leaning but not happy being forced to join the communists who imposed very tough military and doctrinal discipline.  I talked to a guy who now lives in England but was involved in many fire fights with government troops.  He said it was always very confusing.  He just fired his AK-47 in the direction they thought the Thai military were but they never knew, if they hit anyone, as they didn't hang around or return to the scene of fire fights.  The Thai military was very timid dealing with the communists, despite overwhelming air power and artillery.  They tried to avoid fire fights but liked to overrun enemy camps after intelligence informed them the communists had moved on.  A lot of Thai army helicopters were shot down by the communists who frequently ambushed Thai soldiers. In 1980 General Prem sensibly offered an amnesty to the communist insurgents, knowing that 1) the Thai military was unable to defeat them without huge casualties and 2)  many of communists were former students who were not ideologically aligned with the Marxist leadership but joined to save their lives.  

 

Phumtham claims he only joined the communists for a year after Thammasat but others claim he was active with the guerillas until the 1980 amnesty.  Either way it is accepted in Thai society that a generation of students joined the communist guerillas to save their lives without much other choice.  Much as I dislike Phumtham, I don't think his communist past should be held against him but his history with the Thaksin parties should.

 

BTW I have no idea who Ben Hart may be but he is right in this case.