Universal COVID vaccination saves lives, averts 10% to 20% of disease burden, estimates suggest

September 19, 2025

 

"A modeling study today in JAMA Network Open estimates that COVID-19 vaccination of all people in the United States in 2024-25 would have prevented 10% to 20% of hospitalizations and deaths compared with no vaccination, with additional indirect benefits to older adults compared with vaccinating only high-risk groups.

 

The findings come at a crucial time, after the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in May recommended COVID vaccines only for adults 65 and older and for people at risk for severe illness. Last month, the FDA placed major restrictions on who should receive the vaccines, notably complicating access for young children. At the time, the Infectious Diseases Society of America said the FDA's narrowed indications put millions of American lives at risk.

...

Johns Hopkins University researchers led today's study, which projected weekly COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in six scenarios of immune escape (20% to 50% per year) and vaccine recommendations (no recommendation, vaccination of at-risk people only, and vaccination for all eligible groups) from April 2024 to April 2025. 

...

"Ensemble projections suggested that although vaccinating high-risk groups had substantial benefits in reducing disease burden, maintaining the vaccine recommendation for all individuals had the potential to save thousands more lives," the researchers wrote.  "Despite divergence of projections from observed disease trends in 2024 to 2025—possibly driven by variant emergence patterns and immune escape—averted COVID-19 burden due to vaccination was robust across immune escape scenarios, emphasizing the substantial benefit of broader vaccine availability for all individuals," they concluded.

 

(more)

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/universal-covid-vaccination-saves-lives-averts-10-20-disease-burden-estimates-suggest

 

 

 

 

"Findings  In this decision analytical model using ensemble-based projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and related deaths under plausible assumptions of immune escape and vaccine recommendations, the projected disease burden during April 2024 to April 2025 was similar in magnitude to the prior year. Vaccination of all individuals was projected to reduce 10% to 20% of COVID-19 burden compared with no vaccination recommendation, with additional indirect benefits to individuals aged 65 years and older compared with vaccinating high-risk groups only.

 

Meaning  These findings suggest that vaccines can be an effective tool for limiting COVID-19 burden, with a universal vaccine recommendation potentially saving thousands more lives through direct and indirect effects."

 

Results  For the US population (332 million, with an estimated 58 million aged ≥65 years), COVID-19 was expected to cause 814 000 (95% projection interval [PI], 400 000-1.2 million) hospitalizations and 54 000 (95% PI, 17 000-98 000) deaths for April 2024 to April 2025, comparable in magnitude to the prior year. Vaccination of high-risk groups only was projected to reduce hospitalizations (compared to no vaccination recommendation) by 76 000 (95% CI, 34 000-118 000) and deaths by 7000 (95% CI, 3000-11 000) across both immune escape scenarios. Compared with vaccinating high-risk groups only, a universal vaccine recommendation was projected to provide direct and indirect benefits, further preventing 11 000 hospitalizations and 1000 deaths in those aged 65 years and older."

 

(more)

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2839067

 

 

Recommending Covid-19 vaccines for everyone in the US could save thousands more lives than limiting to high-risk groups

Updated Sep 20, 2025

 

"As a group of advisers to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention met [last] week to discuss recommendations on who should get the updated Covid-19 shot this season, a newly published analysis from dozens of researchers emphasizes the “substantial” benefits of broad vaccine recommendations.

 

The US Food and Drug Administration has already made significant changes to this season’s shots: limiting approval to adults 65 and older, as well as younger people who are at higher risk of severe Covid-19. The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, voted Friday to recommend that people who want a Covid-19 vaccine must first consult with a health care provider, although they voted against a recommendation that a prescription be required.

 

But scientific projection models from nine teams of researchers, summarized in a study published Thursday in the journal JAMA Network Open, show that sticking to a universal Covid-19 vaccine recommendation – as has been in place in the US in recent years – has the potential to save thousands more lives than limiting the recommendation to high-risk groups.

...

The scenario that the researchers say was most similar to the way last season actually played out involved high immune escape. The universal vaccine recommendation that was in place in this scenario was projected to reduce hospitalizations by 11% and deaths by 13% – essentially averting 104,000 hospitalizations and 9,000 deaths.

 

(more)

 

CNN

https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/18/health/covid-projections-vaccine-recommendations-study

 

 

 

Not surprising,  many went along with his broad brush approach to cut Big Pharma including me.

Instead every family is expected to risk their child's future by denying  them essential proven vaccines.  Never going to work.

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Universal COVID vaccination saves lives, averts 10% to 20% of disease burden, estimates suggest

September 19, 2025

 

"A modeling study today in JAMA Network Open estimates that COVID-19 vaccination of all people in the United States in 2024-25 would have prevented 10% to 20% of hospitalizations and deaths compared with no vaccination, with additional indirect benefits to older adults compared with vaccinating only high-risk groups.

 

The findings come at a crucial time, after the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in May recommended COVID vaccines only for adults 65 and older and for people at risk for severe illness. Last month, the FDA placed major restrictions on who should receive the vaccines, notably complicating access for young children. At the time, the Infectious Diseases Society of America said the FDA's narrowed indications put millions of American lives at risk.

...

Johns Hopkins University researchers led today's study, which projected weekly COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in six scenarios of immune escape (20% to 50% per year) and vaccine recommendations (no recommendation, vaccination of at-risk people only, and vaccination for all eligible groups) from April 2024 to April 2025. 

...

"Ensemble projections suggested that although vaccinating high-risk groups had substantial benefits in reducing disease burden, maintaining the vaccine recommendation for all individuals had the potential to save thousands more lives," the researchers wrote.  "Despite divergence of projections from observed disease trends in 2024 to 2025—possibly driven by variant emergence patterns and immune escape—averted COVID-19 burden due to vaccination was robust across immune escape scenarios, emphasizing the substantial benefit of broader vaccine availability for all individuals," they concluded.

 

(more)

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/universal-covid-vaccination-saves-lives-averts-10-20-disease-burden-estimates-suggest

 

 

 

 

"Findings  In this decision analytical model using ensemble-based projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and related deaths under plausible assumptions of immune escape and vaccine recommendations, the projected disease burden during April 2024 to April 2025 was similar in magnitude to the prior year. Vaccination of all individuals was projected to reduce 10% to 20% of COVID-19 burden compared with no vaccination recommendation, with additional indirect benefits to individuals aged 65 years and older compared with vaccinating high-risk groups only.

 

Meaning  These findings suggest that vaccines can be an effective tool for limiting COVID-19 burden, with a universal vaccine recommendation potentially saving thousands more lives through direct and indirect effects."

 

Results  For the US population (332 million, with an estimated 58 million aged ≥65 years), COVID-19 was expected to cause 814 000 (95% projection interval [PI], 400 000-1.2 million) hospitalizations and 54 000 (95% PI, 17 000-98 000) deaths for April 2024 to April 2025, comparable in magnitude to the prior year. Vaccination of high-risk groups only was projected to reduce hospitalizations (compared to no vaccination recommendation) by 76 000 (95% CI, 34 000-118 000) and deaths by 7000 (95% CI, 3000-11 000) across both immune escape scenarios. Compared with vaccinating high-risk groups only, a universal vaccine recommendation was projected to provide direct and indirect benefits, further preventing 11 000 hospitalizations and 1000 deaths in those aged 65 years and older."

 

(more)

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2839067

 

 

A modelling study primarily funded by the CDC looking at the Conflict of Interest Disclosures. 

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Loo reported receiving grants from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the conduct of the study. Dr Jung reported receiving grants from CDC during the conduct of the study. Ms Contamin reported receiving grants from National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) during the conduct of the study. Ms Carcelén reported serving in the Atlantic Coast Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Analytics, which is funded by a cooperative agreement from the CDC during the conduct of this study. Dr Moore reported receiving grants from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) during the conduct of the study. Dr Srivastava reported receiving grants from the National Science Foundation (NSF) during the conduct of the study. Dr Fox reported receiving grants from the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) and CDC during the conduct of the study. Dr Porebski reported receiving grants from Virginia Department of Health (VDH), NSF, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), and CDC during the conduct of the study and grants from VDH, NSF, DTRA, and CDC outside the submitted work. Dr J. Chen reported receiving grants from the NSF, DTRA, VDH, and CDC during the conduct of the study. Dr Ben-Nun reported grants from CSTE and CDC during the conduct of the study. Dr Turtle reported receiving grants from CSTE and CDC during the conduct of the study. Dr Viboud reported receiving personal fees from Elsevier for serving as Editor in Chief of Epidemics outside the submitted work. Dr Lessler reported receiving grants from the CDC during the conduct of the study and grants from NIH and Gates Foundation outside the submitted work. Dr Truelove reported receiving grants from the CDC during the conduct of the study. No other disclosures were reported.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2839067

 

4 hours ago, Stiddle Mump said:

 

 

If you are really so knowledgable you would produce some evidence that such studies are ineffective at helping humans solve medical problems.  But to quote PFC Pyle... Surprise! Surprise! Surprise!  .... all you produce is bold highlighting and uninformed false outrage..... exactly what we expect from the nabob of nonsense.

@Stiddle Mump

 

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BM Phoenix will be livid

@Red Phoenix

 

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