11 minutes ago, Sir Dude said:

Is that your crystal ball talking? All speculation and there is nothing to support that line of thinking at the moment.

 

I do not see you have any better predictions. There will be a power shift in Suith china sea., and who do you think will stop that? 

 

Do you really believe India will risk everything for Saving USA and Europes economic? South America, and Africa? 

20 minutes ago, Sir Dude said:

This is probably correct. China and India and the US/Europe ulimately have too much to lose economically to go for it against each other to the max. If they do disagree then they will do things on the sly... not openly.

You also have to remember that China and India hate each other with a passion, so they will not call a truce to gang-up openly and officially against their greatest trading partners... no way.

In the future, it will all descend into grey-zone tactics and trying to do stuff without anyone noticing or there's no evidence. These days, it's all the 4D chess stuff going on... and open conflict between big players is unlikely unless it really hits the fan. The media loves to scare everyone, but all the players know what the stakes are and are reluctant to risk destruction of everything... tend to see a lot of brinksmanship and bullying/threats now.

 

Perhaps at the start - but over time I think they will get directly involved (like Nth Korea has).  Perhaps not as in their full army entering the battlefield, but certainly as NATO/USA is now doing for Ukraine, and supporting Russia with military equipment and intelligence.  The 'danger' to China that most people do not realise, is that with Russia out of the way (if they are conquered and broken up completely), there is nothing to stop (over time) the democratic countries of the West from turning their full attention to the only remaining Communist/Socialist country in the World.  The Chinese have been around for many thousands of years - they are the last remaining Empire after the Romans went away -  and they did not survive this long by playing the 'short game' - they think and act long term. 

 

I am re-thinking about India and although they are now supporting Russia with trade, I am thinking they will probably cut and run if the proverbial hits the fan.  

23 minutes ago, Hummin said:

 

Well, it is a nice opportunity to take South China sea while Nato is busy up North.

NATO has nothing to do with the South China.   NATO means North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Just now, Mike_Hunt said:

NATO has nothing to do with the South China.   NATO means North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

You forget USA have obligations to protect other nato members if they choose to use paragraf 5, and USA have obligations in South China see to Philippines and Taiwan, and also treaty with Malaysia, Japan and S korea

 

 

22 minutes ago, Hummin said:

 

How much more do India hate China than Europe? Stranger things have happened before. Taliban had support from USA when Soviet invaded, and then support from Russia when Nato invaded. 

The Taliban didn't exist until the 1990s, which were born out of the refugee camps in Pakistan. The USSR invaded Afghanistan in the 1980s.   The US supported the more reliable factions of the Mujahideen.

54 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

Good points - take a look below at the last full and free President election results in Ukraine.

Half the country (Eastern) supports Russia and half (Western) supports the West/Europe.

The EU/NATO backed Putin into a corner after over-throwing the elected pro-Russian President. 

Putin annexed Crimea but should have invaded back then - he took far too long - EU/NATO kept pushing.

 

 

Now take a look below at the last full and free Government Election in Ukraine.

This 'war' was inevitable and the warmongers like Cheney in EU/NATO thought it would destroy Russia.

They got that all wrong - just like their wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

It is time USA walked away from wars that do not affect them - and Trump is doing just that. 

 

 

 

 

you should update your narrative, maps from 2010 and 2012 don't support it

15 minutes ago, BLMFem said:

 

This is who some people believe here.

 

 

That is true - now try and compute that what is the ROI on the FSB courting/compronmising Trump over decades ? Off the scale whilst we both broke Middle East states basically over oil and Israel  and spent trillions dealing with the blow back from head choppers with pick up trucks.  They're eating the cats and the dogs. How do empires die - firstly slowly and then all at once. Every dog has it's day until it's eaten !

26 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

Perhaps at the start - but over time I think they will get directly involved (like Nth Korea has).  Perhaps not as in their full army entering the battlefield, but certainly as NATO/USA is now doing for Ukraine, and supporting Russia with military equipment and intelligence.  The 'danger' to China that most people do not realise, is that with Russia out of the way (if they are conquered and broken up completely), there is nothing to stop (over time) the democratic countries of the West from turning their full attention to the only remaining Communist/Socialist country in the World.  The Chinese have been around for many thousands of years - they are the last remaining Empire after the Romans went away -  and they did not survive this long by playing the 'short game' - they think and act long term. 

 

I am re-thinking about India and although they are now supporting Russia with trade, I am thinking they will probably cut and run if the proverbial hits the fan.  

I think that Russia and China simply have temporary aligned interests... but I don't think it goes too deep. China sees an opportunity to exploite Russia for cheap energy and may even gain some of its historically lost territory in the far east of Russia that China says was unfairly lost... I think that that is going to be the real price for Russia to get so much stealth help from China.

India is going to have to choose which side it wants to be with or try the increasingly difficult neutral balancing act... but I think ultimately, due to its dislike of China and needs for the EU/UK/US markets, it will ultimately passively support the West. The current situation with cheap energy from Russia is just a temporary opportunity, but the door is closing and India is backing off if news reports are to be believed.

Russia has dug itself into a big hole and this invasion of Ukraine is a massive lesson for all in hubris... and dictatorships shouldn't be allowed to just invade neighbours just because they feel entitled to.

There is a lesson in all this for China too regarding invading Taiwan, get sanctioned into the next world, assets frozen, military decimated because you have no real modern combat experience and your readiness is not what you think, purges in the military, top-down command with junior officers unable to decide anything, poor moral, under-estimating your enemy etc. etc. etc.... all the same mistakes Russia has made in Ukraine.

As for Putin, this sums him up well...

 

9 minutes ago, Mike_Hunt said:

The Taliban didn't exist until the 1990s, which were born out of the refugee camps in Pakistan. The USSR invaded Afghanistan in the 1980s.   The US supported the more reliable factions of the Mujahideen.

"We" backed the head choppers who ended up blowing the Twin Towers and destroying Iraq and for what and some here think they occupy the high ground. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Sir Dude said:

I think that Russia and China simply have temporary aligned interests... but I don't think it goes too deep. China sees an opportunity to exploite Russia for cheap energy and may even gain some of its historically lost territory in the far east of Russia that China says was unfairly lost... I think that that is going to be the real price for Russia to get so much stealth help from China.

India is going to have to choose which side it wants to be with or try the increasingly difficult neutral balancing act... but I think ultimately, due to its dislike of China and needs for the EU/UK/US markets, it will ultimately passively support the West. The current situation with cheap energy from Russia is just a temporary opportunity, but the door is closing and India is backing off if news reports are to be believed.

Russia has dug itself into a big hole and this invasion of Ukraine is a massive lesson for all in hubris... and dictatorships shouldn't be allowed to just invade neighbours just because they feel entitled to.

There is a lesson in all this for China too regarding invading Taiwan, get sanctioned into the next world, assets frozen, military decimated because you have no real modern combat experience and your readiness is not what you think, purges in the military, top-down command with junior officers unable to decide anything, poor moral, under-estimating your enemy etc. etc. etc.... all the same mistakes Russia has made in Ukraine.

 

Keep drinking the Kool-Aid if you like, but Russia isn't ever coming back to the Western fold, and China is perfectly content with that arrangement. They'll get along well enough, and Modi can play both horses just as Thailand does.We're entering an age where authoritarianism is the dominant political force in global affairs - where brute power and alignment of shared interests count for far more than "freedom" or the so-called liberal international rules-based order.
And Ukraine? Ukraine arrived late to the party, just when it's nearly over and the bar has been drunk dry. The EU itself, after Brexit and the rise of 'populism,' is on the wane - hardly in a position to underwrite grand strategic commitments when its own model is fracturing from within.
In truth, we're reverting to the historical norm. The 20th century Western democratic model is reaching its terminal stage, where the demands of voters far outstrip the state's ability to provide. And we know how that story ends - democracy collapses into darkness, as it did in Weimar Germany.
The post-war liberal consensus was an aberration, not the natural order. My father's generation understood great power politics and the necessity of restraint. We've forgotten those lessons, and now we're paying the price - pretending that our values are universal while the rest of the world organizes itself around older, harder principles of power and interest. We poked the bear and forced the marriage of the worlds largest country in size of population and manufacturing now much high end , with the world largest country in terms of size and mineral wealth. You don't need a crystal ball to see how that ends. 

 

 

Just now, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

Keep drinking the Kool-Aid if you like, but Russia isn't ever coming back to the Western fold, and China is perfectly content with that arrangement. They'll get along well enough, and Modi can play both horses just as Thailand does.We're entering an age where authoritarianism is the dominant political force in global affairs - where brute power and alignment of shared interests count for far more than "freedom" or the so-called liberal international rules-based order.
And Ukraine? Ukraine arrived late to the party, just when it's nearly over and the bar has been drunk dry. The EU itself, after Brexit and the rise of 'populism,' is on the wane - hardly in a position to underwrite grand strategic commitments when its own model is fracturing from within.
In truth, we're reverting to the historical norm. The 20th century Western democratic model is reaching its terminal stage, where the demands of voters far outstrip the state's ability to provide. And we know how that story ends - democracy collapses into darkness, as it did in Weimar Germany.
The post-war liberal consensus was an aberration, not the natural order. My father's generation understood great power politics and the necessity of restraint. We've forgotten those lessons, and now we're paying the price - pretending that our values are universal while the rest of the world organizes itself around older, harder principles of power and interest. We poked the bear and forced the marriage of the worlds largest country in size of population and manufacturing now much high end , with the world largest country in terms of size and mineral wealth. You don't need a crystal ball to see how that ends. 

 

 

 

 

23 minutes ago, Hummin said:

You forget USA have obligations to protect other nato members if they choose to use paragraf 5, and USA have obligations in South China see to Philippines and Taiwan, and also treaty with Malaysia, Japan and S korea

 

 

You forgot that Trump is in the White House. 

19 minutes ago, Mike_Hunt said:

The Taliban didn't exist until the 1990s, which were born out of the refugee camps in Pakistan. The USSR invaded Afghanistan in the 1980s.   The US supported the more reliable factions of the Mujahideen.

 

They later created Taliban, I stand corrected. 

Just now, Sir Dude said:

 

 

He pays me with bitcoin since the invasion which is in a cold wallet but has suggested that AN isn't a good ROI ! 

2 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

You forgot that Trump is in the White House. 

 

Possibly, but does he know that?

3 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

You forgot that Trump is in the White House. 

I forgot nothing, we will have to wait and see where we are heading next. 

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

He pays me with bitcoin since the invasion which is in a cold wallet but has suggested that AN isn't a good ROI ! 

Oh, look at you learning new words and throwing them proudly around!

Well done, buddy!

4 minutes ago, BLMFem said:

Oh, look at you learning new words and throwing them proudly around!

Well done, buddy!

Who else are you here buddy  ?  I'm just me !

 

Here is what the filthy libs over at WSJ have to say about the Russian "peace plan".

 

 

'Trump Issues an Ultimatum to Ukraine - His latest peace offer fulfills Vladimir Putin’s wishes and leaves Kyiv with a terrible choice.'

https://archive.ph/yAZBe#selection-531.0-535.95

 

 

"Mr. Trump may figure he can finally wash his hands of Ukraine if Europe and Ukraine reject his offer. He’s clearly sick of dealing with the war. But appeasing Mr. Putin would haunt the rest of his Presidency. If Mr. Trump thinks American voters hate war, wait until he learns how much they hate dishonor."

 

1 hour ago, BLMFem said:

I just love how you conspiracy nutters connoisseurs just bombard us with credible links to support your (in)credible claims.

Respect!👍

 

And the pot calls out louder than ever!

1 hour ago, Hummin said:

 

Well, it is a nice opportunity to take South China sea while Nato is busy up North.

Yes, that could happen. 

2 hours ago, bannork said:

But that did not stop Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner from meeting with Dmitriev in Miami at the end of October, it has emerged. Witkoff has met with Dmitriev several times this year and the Trump administration has issued a special waiver to allow his entry, a US official told Reuters.

As ever with Trump it boils down to "follow the money".

 

There is vast amounts of Russian money frozen in Europe and the US. They want it.

I must admit I like this plan a lot more.

 

 

Appeasing a dictator never works. Winston knew, Neville found out.

 

 

If you are worried about the peace plan, don't. Forget Ukraine, it won't be accepted by Russia.

 

14. Frozen funds will be used as follows:

$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts ..

Russia won't agree to their money handed over to non-Russian entities. Non-starter.

 

21. Territories:

Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, ...

Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are already de jure (if not de facto) part of the Russian Federation. They were annexed early in the war. So Russia will have to change its constitution for this to fly. Ain't gonna happen.

 

And other points. 

 

What's happening is that, given the situation along the front,  Trump wants out now with "See I tried but they don't want to play ball. That's on them. I'm outta here." Instead of a VN-like airlift out of Kiev in the middle of the night.

38 minutes ago, BLMFem said:

Appeasing a dictator never works. Winston knew, Neville found out.

 

 

Actually Neville Chamberlain knew that the west had to buy time to rearm. So the analogy falls. Good luck with persuading western electorates who are tapped out with debt,rising  prices, lack of affordable housing , healtahcare and falling living values to appease some well off pensioners living in "democratic" 16 coups Thailand where there pensions go much further on the bloodied sweat of smiling Somchai and moral virtue can be tapped out on a keyboard far above the madding crowd. Putler is so 2023. 

Wow, you are really thick.

 

Your opinion of this geopolitical abortion matters not half a fuk. 

 

Russia is holding all the cards, it always had. This war of attrition would have been over years ago if not for the US taxpayer and his now indebted children.

 

Russia will take the Crimea and ethnic Russian republics. If that doesn't suit corrupt Ukrainian ministers they will in short order take Kyiv.

 

This is yet another glaring example of how ignorant and churlish this sub forum is. The whinging, whining and knashing of teeth, but in the end it's just surrender and capitulation. 

 

The nail in the coffin is perhaps the 100 million dollars stolen from effectively the US taxpayer cum Ukrainian citizenry. One individual fu ked off to where? You guessed it - Israel of course. 

 

So dry your manboy eyes, tighten your sphincter because the men are here to take control of the situation.

 

It never was winnable, but you know so little about the world you were oblivious to that brutal, cold, hard reality.

 

The world works entirely independently of all your silly little bird brains. Many of you once again like COVID, like the gaytriarchy, like the election wholly and entirely wrong. Another word for all of this is of course - delusional 

 

 

WHY ?

 

If you add up all major costs to Western countries from the Russia–Ukraine war — direct aid, refugee support, energy shocks, defence spending increases, and trade disruptions — you get a broad range rather than a single number.

Direct military + financial aid is now about $250–330bn.
Refugee costs for EU/Western hosts run anywhere from $30bn to ~ $170bn, depending on how you count multi-year support.
The energy price spike + inflation hit added roughly $100–350bn in extra costs across Europe and other Western economies.
Higher defence spending since 2022 adds another $50–200bn so far.
Sanctions and lost trade account for something like $20–150bn depending on method.

Put together, the conservative “already spent” total comes to about $500–800bn.
If you add future reconstruction commitments (Ukraine’s total need is estimated at ~$500bn, a big share likely falling on Western donors), plus ongoing higher defence budgets, the long-run cost easily reaches $1 trillion+.

So depending on scope, the war has cost Western supporters somewhere between half a trillion and well over a trillion dollars — the lower end being actual expenditures to date, the upper end including long-term obligations and broader economic impacts.

8 minutes ago, MarcusAurelius said:

Wow, you are really thick.

 

Your opinion of this geopolitical abortion matters not half a fuk. 

 

Russia is holding all the cards, it always had. This war of attrition would have been over years ago if not for the US taxpayer and his now indebted children.

 

Russia will take the Crimea and ethnic Russian republics. If that doesn't suit corrupt Ukrainian ministers they will in short order take Kyiv.

 

This is yet another glaring example of how ignorant and churlish this sub forum is. The whinging, whining and knashing of teeth, but in the end it's just surrender and capitulation. 

 

The nail in the coffin is perhaps the 100 million dollars stolen from effectively the US taxpayer cum Ukrainian citizenry. One individual fu ked off to where? You guessed it - Israel of course. 

 

So dry your manboy eyes, tighten your sphincter because the men are here to take control of the situation.

 

It never was winnable, but you know so little about the world you were oblivious to that brutal, cold, hard reality.

 

The world works entirely independently of all your silly little bird brains. Many of you once again like COVID, like the gaytriarchy, like the election wholly and entirely wrong. Another word for all of this is of course - delusional 

 

 

 

Oh great, another "deep thinker" whose been able to see the "truth", unlike all the "bird brains". 

Pathetic.😂

7 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

WHY ?

 

If you add up all major costs to Western countries from the Russia–Ukraine war — direct aid, refugee support, energy shocks, defence spending increases, and trade disruptions — you get a broad range rather than a single number.

Direct military + financial aid is now about $250–330bn.
Refugee costs for EU/Western hosts run anywhere from $30bn to ~ $170bn, depending on how you count multi-year support.
The energy price spike + inflation hit added roughly $100–350bn in extra costs across Europe and other Western economies.
Higher defence spending since 2022 adds another $50–200bn so far.
Sanctions and lost trade account for something like $20–150bn depending on method.

Put together, the conservative “already spent” total comes to about $500–800bn.
If you add future reconstruction commitments (Ukraine’s total need is estimated at ~$500bn, a big share likely falling on Western donors), plus ongoing higher defence budgets, the long-run cost easily reaches $1 trillion+.

So depending on scope, the war has cost Western supporters somewhere between half a trillion and well over a trillion dollars — the lower end being actual expenditures to date, the upper end including long-term obligations and broader economic impacts.

 

Yes, countering Russia's naked aggression has been costly, and it will cost a lot more. But that's nothing compared to what the bill would have been if Europe had caved and let the dictator have a free run.

Putin must be defeated, Russia must be defeated and all the frozen assets should be confiscated as a first step. And when Putin is a rotting corpse and Russia disintegrates, it's time to return all the land occupied by Russia through the centuries.

Won't be much left, which is just fine by me.