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Straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Closed - Impact on World Economy

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22 hours ago, connda said:

Well the Islamic hating, war mongers

Well as we are repeatedly told that the overwhelming majority of muslims are peaceful decent citizens , I would imagine the overwhelming majority of them are delighted at the demise of this disgusting Iranian islamist regime that has inflicted pain and misery on the Iranian people for the best part of half a century.

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  • Alan Zweibel
    Alan Zweibel

    Actually, the Trump administration's motto is If we break it, you fix it. He's sitting up the Iranian people as scapegoats if they fail to overthrow the mullahs.

  • Hawaiian
    Hawaiian

    Who are the economists predicting $150 to $400 oil? This situation is being highly exaggerated as Iran loses it ability to enforce such a closure.

  • paddypower
    paddypower

    anyone believing the Department of War propaganda ought to be put back in kindergarten

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Proof that Trump is incredibly short-sighted - and a liar.The US was in negotiations to reinstate a nuclear oversight program. There was no threat to the US. But now he's willing to risk American lives - notably other lives not his valued shin spurs. Just like the 2nd last Republican Pres., Bush 'Junior' - he is completely unaware of the realities of US foreign policy regime change. After Saddam Hussein got hung out to dry, and the US left, Iraq completely destabilized, resulting in a sectarian civil war, the rise of armed militias, and a power vacuum that led to an Al-Qaeda-led insurgency and the eventual rise of ISIS. anybody seen the documentary Fahrenheit 9/11? Michael Moore’s documentary questioning the Bush administration’s lie-strewed justification for the Iraq war.

7 minutes ago, Bday Prang said:

Well there we go , Its people like you panic buying and hoarding fuel that will cause shortages and further price rises.

Not to mention the danger of hoarding 400 litres of petrol or diesel in your garage,

By the way, It won't keep for that long , it will degrade if it doesn't explode first, sending you and your neighbours to join Iran's former supreme leader

Thai government announced yesterday that they have a two month stockpile of fuel.

6 minutes ago, Bday Prang said:

from what I have seen on the news, the "average Iranians" on the ground are dancing in the streets with joy, and honestly , who could blame them?

That's one news clip from one town in the south of Iran. I would hope to see more. Meanwhile, the state broadcaster is playing videos of masses of Iranians assembling Teheran in mourning for the "great martyr" aka the crispy corpse. It's extremely likely they are using old footage from funerals for those IRGC assassinated previously.

Just another example of Don fulfilling his promise to bring prices down for the average American consumer. He gets an F grade so far.

And starting wars with or bombing 8 nations is not exactly an honest effort to end American adventurism, is it?

I wonder what percentage of his supporters feel completely betrayed and scammed at this point?

23 minutes ago, Bday Prang said:

Well i am sure the iranian people will consider it a price worth paying, They are dancing in the streets. Consider what life must have been like for them during the last 40+ years.

Celebration or grief? Khamenei’s death brings contrasting emotions in Iran

contrasting emotions in Iran

Atousa Mirzade, a schoolteacher in the central city of Shiraz, told Reuters she could not be happy about the country’s leader being killed by a foreign power.

“I also cannot be happy because I don’t know what will happen to our country. We saw what happened in Iraq: chaos and bloodshed. I would prefer the Islamic republic to that situation.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/01/celebration-or-grief-khameneis-death-brings-contrasting-emotions-in-iran

Remember when Iraqis were celebrating the American invasion? How did that turn out?

2 hours ago, Alan Zweibel said:

How many hours it take for a tanker to transit the straits?

I guess it depends partly on whether oil producers think they can make more money by not pumping more oil. And of course how much certain oil producers can be trusted not to produce more oil and take further advantage of the higher prices.

My company could cruise at 15 kts, so like 10 hrs. It was always nail biting going through there.

  • Author
6 hours ago, Alan Zweibel said:

Celebration or grief? Khamenei’s death brings contrasting emotions in Iran

It's akin to celebrating the death of the Pope because your neither Catholic nor religious.

8 minutes ago, connda said:

It's akin to celebrating the death of the Pope because your neither Catholic nor religious.

Maybe if you were a citizen of one of the Papal States 500 years ago and you were under the thumb of a particularly cruel Pope. . The people of Iran have plenty of legitimate reasons to celebrate the death of Khameini whose rule was not exactly confined to the religious sphere.

On 3/1/2026 at 11:07 AM, connda said:

Well the Islamic hating, war mongers got their collective wish as Israel and the United States declared collective war on Iran and its allies. In response Iran and Anserallah have closed the Straits of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Straits. Economists are predicting oil prices sky-rocketing from $150 to $400 dollars a barrel and in the process, wreaking the global economy.

Personally I expect that oil prices will and gas at the pump will quickly become unaffordable, and that if the war is protracted, that the global economy - including the Thai economy - will collectively tank.

With that said, I expect it will be a few days before gas prices get silly. Time to go top off. Suddenly coal plants, like Lamphun's Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) run by Hongsa Power Company are going to be the only affordable energy around. Good time to go solar as well.

What say you? Especially the Islamic hating war mongers. Paint us a rosy picture of the economic outcome of President Trump's and Netanyahu's war of aggression against Iran.

Gold prices here have soared.... thank you Donald.

8 hours ago, Bday Prang said:

Well there we go , Its people like you panic buying and hoarding fuel that will cause shortages and further price rises.

Not to mention the danger of hoarding 400 litres of petrol or diesel in your garage,

By the way, It won't keep for that long , it will degrade if it doesn't explode first, sending you and your neighbours to join Iran's former supreme leader

Cheers to you too ! My small 100 lt stock will me past the price gouging market.

No 400 litre risk to quite distant neighbors.

More interesting is that Gold Shops have stopped selling, only buying back. Thai baht about to plummet?

3 minutes ago, 0ffshore360 said:

Thai baht about to plummet?

We can but hope, although that will push the price of fuel up here even more , you'd better hoard a bit more

Just now, Bday Prang said:

We can but hope, although that will push the price of fuel up here even more , you'd better hoard a bit more

Thanks for the recommendation.

I think I will wait to see how Operation Epstein plays on .

Just now, 0ffshore360 said:

Thanks for the recommendation.

I think I will wait to see how Operation Epstein plays on .

I doubt that will affect the global price of oil,

On 3/2/2026 at 3:52 AM, connda said:

"Projectiles." From Reuters:
"A projectile hit the Marshall Islands–flagged product tanker MKD VYOM killing a crew member on board as the vessel sailed off the coast of Oman, manager V.Ships said on Sunday."

Insurers will no longer insure essentially creating the a blockade.

https://www.reuters.com/world/crew-member-killed-after-projectile-hits-mkd-vyom-tanker-off-oman-manager-says-2026-03-01/

One would think that the US with all that firepower in the region would be able to put a "protective umbrella" over the strait.

But yes, it's the insurance companies that won't insure anymore are actually the ones that are closing the strait.

On 3/2/2026 at 8:25 AM, EVENKEEL said:

So far......Won't be long before merchant ships passing through the Strait will have Naval escorts to ensure safety. The Iranians have been harassing US vessels in that region for a very long time.

We have a highly COMPITENT navy with superb capabilities and leadership if they are allowed to address this problem without interference from the administration it will be sorted in short order.

  • Author
On 3/2/2026 at 7:20 AM, Alan Zweibel said:

I haven't seen quotes from any economists predicting the kind of price rises you cite. Had such a high price, it would be very few purchases of oil. So market forces wouldn't support that. The highest estimate I saw was $140 which is bad enough.

On 3/1/2026 at 11:06 PM, swissie said:

How exactly is the Iran blocking the straight of Hormus?


The IRGC is determining who gets though and who gets a drone shot at their vessel. And then there are insurance companies themselves who will not insurance ships to transit the Straits. And if they get hit with a drone or missile?
force majeure. Insurance companies will not pay out. So wise shippers drop anchor and wait. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_majeure

In the meanwhile Brent Crude is not $102 and rising. We haven't even gotten started yet.
Got Oil Stocks? thumbsup🛢️

  • Author
On 3/2/2026 at 6:32 PM, 0ffshore360 said:

I think I will wait to see how Operation Epstein plays on .

Monica Lewinsky - Clinton - Bomb what was once Yugoslavia.
Epstein Scandal - Trump - Bomb Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, Greenland, whomever the madman decides to bomb

3 minutes ago, connda said:


The IRGC is determining who gets though and who gets a drone shot at their vessel. And then there are insurance companies themselves who will not insurance ships to transit the Straits. And if they get hit with a drone or missile?
force majeure. Insurance companies will not pay out. So wise shippers drop anchor and wait. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Force_majeure

In the meanwhile Brent Crude is not $102 and rising. We haven't even gotten started yet.
Got Oil Stocks? thumbsup🛢️

image.png

https://www.google.com/search?q=oil+price+brent+crude&oq=oil+price+brent+crude&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCDg2MTNqMGo3qAIIsAIB&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

So how is Iran blocking it when they have all 32 naval vessels at the bottom of the ocean according to the Dept. of War day before yesterday.

D.of W. also says tankers are moving through the straits as of yesterday morning.

2 minutes ago, Slowhand225 said:

So how is Iran blocking it when they have all 32 naval vessels at the bottom of the ocean according to the Dept. of War day before yesterday.

D.of W. also says tankers are moving through the straits as of yesterday morning.

If there was such a thing as drones and missiles, your point wouldn't make sense.

14 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

If there was such a thing as drones and missiles, your point wouldn't make sense.


So you're saying you don't understand how those work. Noted

I'd love to hear the story though, when you find time, please share

1 minute ago, Slowhand225 said:


So you're saying you don't understand how those work. Noted

I'd love to hear the story though, when you find time, please share

No, what I'm saying is that anybody who believes that the destruction of the Iranian Navy would prevent the closing of the Strait of Hormuz doesn't understand the significance of the word "Strait".

21 minutes ago, Alan Zweibel said:

No, what I'm saying is that anybody who believes that the destruction of the Iranian Navy would prevent the closing of the Strait of Hormuz doesn't understand the significance of the word "Strait".


You are so correct, i'm so very ashamed. Who knew the lack of an S would prevent you from answering the question that was asked of you.
I thought rolling was against the rules but here you are, again.

Please enlighten me

  • Author
On 3/2/2026 at 10:20 AM, spidermike007 said:

Just another example of Don fulfilling his promise to bring prices down for the average American consumer. He gets an F grade so far.

There is nothing like dragging the US population into another Forever War in the ME which closes the Straits of Hormuz and leads to economy-killing energy price increases. Of course, the Orwellian "War is Peace" talk that comes out of the Trump Administration and his Department of War, we are told that "Iran started the war, not us." Nothing like raining Tomahawk missiles on Tehran, killing the country's religious leader who was sitting in his office waiting to be martyred, bomb a girl's school killing 165 Iranian school children - and then blaming it all on Iran.
I'm sorry - this is my definition of Evil. Propgandaize the public to believe that every country that the US/Isreal bombs are "Evil" when the true source of Evil sits in the White House, Congress, and the Senate and the various Orwellian Departments of Death in Washington DC.

"Iran is bombing itself - honest!" Although I've listened to US propaganda for decades, the audacity of it still makes me want to puke.

Lyndsey Graham put ie so succinctly, "When (if) the regime goes down, we're going to make a ton of money."
So does House's National Energy Dominance Council, Jarrod Agen, who has asserted that, "We're gonna get all of Iran's oil." That is what this is about, just like Valenzuela - It's The Oil, Stupid! It always has been, and it always will be.

So really? Who is going to make a ton of money? Trump administration insiders like Graham who will be insider trading, congressional leaders and their staffers who inside trade information from the administration, US oil company execs and stockholders who will get free Iranian oil. Trump Bro's who will inside trade administration info as will his family, friends, and business partners.

Who loses? The US public? We'll all be holding the bill for the war as Trump destroys the economy and monetary system with its out-of-control deficient spending on all things war and transfer payments to the foreign friends like Israel.

Who suffers - the common people on all sides. US, Iran, and Global. The billionaire class makes billions more and the rest of us pay for it.

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This completely out of touch billionaire president seems to care not one iota for the economic hardship that he has brought upon his own people and the entire world. And it's one of the reasons why America should never, ever elect a billionaire again. I think most of us agree would agree that very few of them are not pathological super freaks.

The surge in gasoline and diesel prices at pumps nationwide doesn't appear to be a concern for President Trump (at least not yet).

"I don't have any concern about it," the president told Reuters in an interview on Thursday evening when asked about rising prices.

"They'll drop very rapidly when this is over, and if they rise, they rise, but this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit."

The president's comments come as the national average gas price at the pump has jumped nearly 11% this week to $3.32 per gallon, according to the latest figures from the travel organization AAA. The nearly 11% surge in the national average is the biggest weekly jump since the week of March 6, 2022, when there was a 12.6% spike due to energy market chaos stemming from the war in Eastern Europe.

"We have slightly higher oil prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop, I believe, lower than ever before," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday.

OilPrice.com https://share.google/UQekZPLasznOxMksR

operationepsteindiversion.jpg.ae3d3a48f734da27a8e5683ec955a9ab.jpg

Yea, I'd say things are scaled back a wee bit. Common sense, as if you don't need to be on the water, why risk life & ship. From AI ...

... "As of March 7–9, 2026, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz traffic dropped by 94%, with only about 8 ships per day passing through, compared to the normal ~138. Major commercial carriers have largely suspended operations due to extreme safety risks." ...

2 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Yea, I'd say things are scaled back a wee bit. Common sense, as if you don't need to be on the water, why risk life & ship. From AI ...

... "As of March 7–9, 2026, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz traffic dropped by 94%, with only about 8 ships per day passing through, compared to the normal ~138. Major commercial carriers have largely suspended operations due to extreme safety risks." ...


I'd bet they're all tankers, DoW said yesterday there were 4 tankers by mid day.

I know thats not possible given the remote drones and missiles that Iran has.
Never mind that they have no way to find a target with them. Facts, who needs them.

15 minutes ago, Slowhand225 said:


I'd bet they're all tankers, DoW said yesterday there were 4 tankers by mid day.

I know thats not possible given the remote drones and missiles that Iran has.
Never mind that they have no way to find a target with them. Facts, who needs them.

I'm guessing they are probably all Iranian tankers. Who would risk losing a tanker, and why. This will all be over completely soon, end of the month at the latest. I think the world will survive another week or 3 without oil through the straits of Hormuz.

5 hours ago, Slowhand225 said:

So how is Iran blocking it when they have all 32 naval vessels at the bottom of the ocean according to the Dept. of War day before yesterday.

D.of W. also says tankers are moving through the straits as of yesterday morning.

Iran linked ships...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-08/hormuz-tracker-iran-linked-ships-are-the-only-ones-to-transit

1 hour ago, candide said:

Iran linked ships...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-08/hormuz-tracker-iran-linked-ships-are-the-only-ones-to-transit


I wouldn't have been talking about anyone elses tankers.

Hadn't seen that link, thanks

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