DrTuner Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 For an actual civil war, there needs to be at least a reasonable sized militia to fight the existing military. I have yet to see or hear of anything greater than southern terrorists in this respect. Anyone know of anything other? Or the military could split. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briggsy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What a ridiculous thread. Civil War? Royal Thai Army vs who? Have you any idea what happens when they turn their guns on their own countrymen? They seem to do this every 10 years or so. It is all over in a matter of hours and there are no repercussions. The only possibility of a civil war would be if a neighbouring country were to finance and militarily supply a guerilla movement to challenge the RTA. This would need the support of a large portion of the populus as well. These conditions were possible in the 60's or 70's but do not exist now. Please continue with the farcical, uninformed, emotionally-charged posts. e.g "Move capital to Khon Kaen," "The reds will storm Chiang Mai special forces camp and lynch the generals," etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williamta20012 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wouldn't worry about it, the current situation is almost over, the Shinawatra regime is losing power - they are already getting desperate by resorting to extreme measures to oppress the opposition. Eventually, if the Shinawatras don't leave politics peacefully then there will be another bloodless coup d'etat but no civil war. They might have money but their real power comes from the people who are increasingly being disillusioned by their deceit. Contrary to popular opinion the reds aren't directly driven by support money, I'm sure it helps but their cause is valid - Isaan has been milked dry since the Phibun regime in order to fund the growth of Bangkok - money which then filtered into the BKK economy leaving Isaan in poverty. This will need to be rectified before Thailand sees any long term peace but the Shinawatra regime was never going to help them. There will be more elites taking advantage of their plight to strengthen their cause but over time, the older, generations are being replaced by the educated youth - they won't be as easily manipulated and in time will run for politics themselves. Only then will Thailand be truly prepared for democracy. money doesn't grow bangkok its production, if issan was milked dry that capital will move to unproductive hands, thus stifling the growth of both economies but any way it wasnt issan that was milked it has been the thai bahts purchasing power through shenanigans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In Search of Space Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I am not worried about a full-scale civil war, that cannot happen. I supported the anti-amnesty bill which I thought was crazy and treated all voters (irrespective of party affiliations) as idiots, especially trying to sneak it though. Now Suthep is demanding more and more and should the 2 February election be cancelled or delayed it just gives more time for a non-elected government to take over. I am not a fan of Thaksin Shinawatra, but I can’t get round the fact that he was democratically elected (albeit with some bribery going on). But the consensus is that he (PTP) will win the next election, possibly with a greater majority, so the Democrats have to live with it and try to come up with the right policies to secure an election next time round. In the case of an appointed government, would that be allowed ? By the military, by Red Shirt groups in Issan or by surrounding ASEAN partners – many of them do not have democratic governments, but they are at least stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issangeorge Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The problem with democracy in Thailand is the country is almost evenly divided. If you draw a line from the northwest corner of Thailand down to Pattaya, almost every constituency north of that line is PTP and every constituency south is Democratic. There are slightly more people in the north, so they form the government. The problem is the PTP are ignoring the people south of that line and these people are getting fed up with it, especially since they pay the freight. The country is divided and I don't see a solution. An election will solve nothing. Sent from my i-mobile IQ X using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
90dayz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The problem with democracy in Thailand is the country is almost evenly divided. If you draw a line from the northwest corner of Thailand down to Pattaya, almost every constituency north of that line is PTP and every constituency south is Democratic. There are slightly more people in the north, so they form the government. The problem is the PTP are ignoring the people south of that line and these people are getting fed up with it, especially since they pay the freight. The country is divided and I don't see a solution. An election will solve nothing. Sent from my i-mobile IQ X using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app Don't be surprised to see "Northern Thailand", "Isan" and "Pattani" appear on the map some decade down the line. What happened between Indonesia and East Timor could happen here too, except this one might harm Thailand's ASEAN membership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briggsy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 More wacko separatist Isaan farangs. Clueless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pxlgirl Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 things can escalate, sometimes with, but often w/o warning. As for the current situation, who'd have thought the proclaimed peaceful protesters would have gone that far to seize government buildings, attack a bus full of red shirts, etc... In any case, hope for the best, but plan for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nidieunimaitre Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 My 5 years as a Ranger has prepared me for any eventuality. Bush Ranger? Wagga Wagga Dept. Parks. and Gardens Ranger actually. A garden ranger? You pressed wild flowers in books? A monty python lumberjack type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nignoy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 lets face it folks for the last 60 years there has always been some form of armed punch-ups here in the land of smiles, in theearly 60,s pathetlaos and their thai sympathisers were always ambushing locals or blowing shit up in yasothon province,as far as civil war goes not much chance of that to many diverse fractions with different goals and beliefs,luckily in the 60,s and70,s when were in the north east, we had very little trouble because the f.i.l was a real bad fella to mess with!!bkk and southern Thailand in the 90,s were a hotbed of armed lets call it upheaval, it was never really organised like 70,s northern Ireland,but there were still armed attacks but mostly they were bandits more intent on robbing than anything else, remember well in1990 a german tour bus being robbed and all the tourists left stranded in their underwear,I don't think or hope it will come to civil war, if it does a lot of scores and old debts will be settled, remember folks thais have long memories!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phetaroi Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The possibility of a civil war has crossed my mind, but I think a coup is far, far, far more likely, and is actually a safety valve probably preventing civil war. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issangeorge Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't think there will be civil war, but I think if anything it would be a coup, that would cause it. Sent from my i-mobile IQ X using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The possibility of a civil war has crossed my mind, but I think a coup is far, far, far more likely, and is actually a safety valve probably preventing civil war. Different factions of the army could split against each other. The red shirts are claiming that if there is another coup that they will not be staying home like last time and I think we can probably believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 People thinking that civil war could ever occur in Thailand are barking, woof woof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew Hicks Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yawn.. up here in Isaan we will just watch it on TV if it happens Maybe true and that's much what my 'Thai girl' says... that Thai politics has always been like this and it's just more of the same. Trouble is that the dispute is all about Isaan and the integration of the peoples of the NE and the north into the Thai polity with full emancipation and democratic rights. If things really blow up badly, it's hard not to see disorder in the provinces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cooked Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yawn.. up here in Isaan we will just watch it on TV if it happens Maybe true and that's much what my 'Thai girl' says... that Thai politics has always been like this and it's just more of the same. Trouble is that the dispute is all about Isaan and the integration of the peoples of the NE and the north into the Thai polity with full emancipation and democratic rights. If things really blow up badly, it's hard not to see disorder in the provinces. ...Not too sure about that, the troubled southern provinces also have something to complain about, but I can't see Isaan getting itself organised in the same way as they have down there. Isaan doesn't want to see itself obliged to form alliances with Cambodia or Lao, that's for sure, and that would be the only way that they could gain some autonomy. Again (and this is just my opinion) I can't see this province (Buriram) wishing to get above the level of subsistence farming / odd jobbing / going to Bangkok for a year or two that they think of as a way of living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somtamnication Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The divisions and out right hatred that these people have for each other, it will never be fixed with an election. A coup will bring stability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farang000999 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 People thinking that civil war could ever occur in Thailand are barking, woof woof! there is already civil war or something like it in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sayonarax Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Civil war... brb going to lotus to buy some tin foil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HerIndoors Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I've lived here for yonks and one thing I have learned ... Just when I think I have a handle on Thai politics etc., something happens to show I know <deleted>.....wheels within wheels within wheels. Thais are not good at expressing their emotions and have not learned to modulate / express their anger as we do in the west. As a consequence they can go from zero to 110% in a flash. This latest political farce could.... Blow over then re emerge. Fizzle out with backroom deals. Become a long drawn out affair till everyone gets bored with it. Result in yet another coup. Morph into a civil war. Choose one or all of the above. At least we expats can always leave...(if we don't like it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 People thinking that civil war could ever occur in Thailand are barking, woof woof! there is already civil war or something like it in the south. woof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keith101 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phetaroi Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 While I still don't think there will be a civil war, I imagine that back in 1931 no one really believed the monarchy would be overthrown. In 1940, no one really believe the Japanese would attack coastal Thailand. 10 years ago no one imagined the riots of 3.5 years ago would result in 30 major buildings burned down. 5 years ago virtually no one imagined a group calling themselves the Red Shirts would essentially be in control of the current government. And after the riots of 3.5 years ago, just about everyone said it was over...no more problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mumjokmok Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I've lived here for yonks and one thing I have learned ... Just when I think I have a handle on Thai politics etc., something happens to show I know <deleted>.....wheels within wheels within wheels. Thais are not good at expressing their emotions and have not learned to modulate / express their anger as we do in the west. As a consequence they can go from zero to 110% in a flash. This latest political farce could.... Blow over then re emerge. Fizzle out with backroom deals. Become a long drawn out affair till everyone gets bored with it. Result in yet another coup. Morph into a civil war. Choose one or all of the above. At least we expats can always leave...(if we don't like it). Pretty much the answer for me. The last line shows the greatest understanding of the culture's culture, however may also encompass the uncomfortable part of the new saddle that the horse is trying to buck. ASEAN may share the Thai's desire to end corruption and promote reform, and the timely nature of this newer, slightly more ferocious version of the long standing conflict might illustrate the dire straits certain sections of society see the country to be in regarding the signing of important documents and big squirts of cash into the nation's economy. People musing over support for sides and factions in what would be to us expats a truly horrific, nasty and ugly civil war, (think about it, unless you can really get your lingo on in Thai and Isaan and understand what's going on, how comfortable are you going to feel being the 'farang' appealing for any kind of assistance when you should have just bailed as sh-t hits the rotating blades of your freestanding Hatari oscillating model, right in front of your eyes), should maybe go and draw their lines and do their proposed budgets and economic forecasts for your regional GDP's and think about your foreign policy strategy. Thailand is not going to be very stable, neither south nor north, if it's in two pieces. That's when the real sinister stuff happens. People must fight for the whole thing in one piece first or it would never ever be even a little bit the same again....and it will most certainly change the nature of Thai people forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blabth Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The chances for a civil war is always there as even the last coup did not solve anything. For a short time we had this interim government led by the Democrats and than after the election the reds gained control again. If S is successful and will be able to change the constitution in such away that the people from the rural area will not be properly represented that the next clash is programmed. This situation here will not be defused with S. win it will linger until the next election when may be than the reds will boycott the election. As everybody is to confident (S and Democrats) to have the majority behind them than why they have boycotted the election. A constitutional change or even apply the present constitution could be than implemented by the parliament with a strong monitoring process by the opposition ( whoever that will be). The process would be transparent and the people could see potential changes before they are manifested. Constitutional changes have to be voted with at least 2/3 of the parliament members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post NoshowJones Posted January 2, 2014 Popular Post Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yawn.. up here in Isaan we will just watch it on TV if it happens Haha. You think if the army comes in, those up in isaan won't fight them up country? Burn down a few city halls and the rest. The biggest potential Areas that could blow up is isaan Thais are not for fighting in any wars unless there have odds on their side of about six to one. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stradavarius37 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Mark me in the "don't give a shit" column 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayroo Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yes this could get nasty. Whatever your political viewpoint, this present Government was democratically elected (as was her brother's before that) and anyone who wishes that they are replaced, should wait until their current term is over and then campaign for the election. I guess their brains cannot fathom that this is what a democratic election is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LarryBird Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Has ANYONE in the history of Thailand stood up for what's right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donniereadit Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The fear factor is not there for me. I would simply fly out and likely relocate to Cambodia or Vietnam. I also don't have confidence in any groups ability to organize or think well enough to pull anything off. A disorganized military response in Bangkok would be at the top of my worries, them are not much educated either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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