Phuket tourism going down the pan just like Pattaya: Few tourists and much worse than last year

[marcusarelus]

1 minute ago, Humpy said:

When I came to Thailand over 20 years ago the Baht was 90 to the Pound. 

No tourist is going to consider Thailand for a holiday with Baht 31.2 to the Pound !!

Spot on.  If you want the spending power increased get Brexit figured out and stop carping at the poor Thais.  

[mlmcleod]

This is Thailand.  As the demand goes down the prices go up! I am sure the mega-millions that the Chinese, Indians, Arabs and Pakistanis are spending here will save the day!  The Europeans, Australians and Americans that have been run off by shady immigration practices are spreading the word!

 

I suspect that in the long run Thailand is just going to be little China! or maybe little India.

[Pilotman]

7 minutes ago, Benmart said:

The difference is that I live in Thailand, the article is about Thailand and none of those countries or areas have anything to do with Thailand as far as this topic is concerned. Focus.

What a joy you are. I wasn't replying to you old son, but to darksidedog, who made a valid observation.  

Edited July 12, 2019 by Pilotman

[chrissables]

7 hours ago, Joe Mcseismic said:

The strength of the Thai Baht is not "artificial".

The reason it is so high is because:-

Increasing foreign exchange reserves.

Low inflation rate.

Low unemployment.

Resilient economy.

Concern about European economies (their currencies losing value).

 

The Thai Central Bank has the same job as other Central banks; to keep inflation in check. This is why they have very limited options with regard to the exchange rate.

 

The foreign exchange market is far bigger than any single countries power to influence their own currency.

Britain tried to support Sterling in 1993, but, still crashed out of the ERM.

Thailand tried to do the same in 1997 and spent most of their foreign currency reserves.

In both cases, it was the foreign exchange market that determined the outcome.

Didn't Soros have a lot to do with the 97 crash? 

[madmen]

What a load of nonsense
These threads pop up smack in the middle of low season every year

And drag on into high season where they mysteriously vanish untill next years Pattaya phuket are dead threads [emoji16]

[marcusarelus]

2 minutes ago, Benmart said:

The difference is that I live in Thailand, the article is about Thailand and none of those countries or areas have anything to do with Thailand as far as this topic is concerned. Focus.

Sure they do.  The man was explaining the basics of tourism.  It's the value of the tourists money that determines where tourists go.  

 

The fake tourists and others who actually live here on a tourist visa are an entirely different matter.  

 

That's why so much negativity because they can't violate the law any more and use a tourist visa as permanent resident status.  

[sambum]

14 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

Debt to GDP

That is the "Orange Line" on the chart - the ACTUAL HOUSEHOLD DEBT OUTSTANDING is shown quite clearly above that and is as I have already stated, or are you being deliberately obtuse? 

[marcusarelus]

1 minute ago, chrissables said:

Didn't Soros have a lot to do with the 97 crash? 

He was the first to attack the baht and the Bank of Thailand could not maintain the USD peg and had to float the baht.  Soros is also known as the man who broke the bank of England.  

[GAZZPA]

I guess we can all speculate the reasons for Thailands decline. For me I just trust what I see and leave it at that. Thailand is not as cheap as it was for sure the anti foreigner sentiment that runs through the country cannot be missed. its not a friendly place, its unsafe on the roads, the police are terrible and service is generally very poor. Tourists and expats are treated as nothing more then AtM machines and the low quality sex tourists are dying out. In short Thaialnd has become "untrendy", it is not the tropical paradise choice it once was and i can see nothing but constant decline on the horizon. The Thais dont want us all, well very soon we will be gone and they get their wish, enjoy. I have already left never to return, along with a few families we know and countless others we dont. The world is not a big place anymore and if we are all honest there are far better options nowadays. Time to leave fellas, you know it makes sense.

[Bangkok Barry]

6 hours ago, yogi100 said:

The bar girls definitely can see it, in Pattaya anyway. They collectively hate their govt and wish Taksin could come back.

 

Taksin's government wanted to close their bars at midnight, after being shouted down when the minister responsible wanted to close them at 10. And it was the same government who banned the sale of alcohol in daylight hours except between 11 and 2.

[Joe Mcseismic]

7 minutes ago, chrissables said:

Didn't Soros have a lot to do with the 97 crash? 

I think you are getting mixed up with Sterling in 1993. He was just one of the many people, banks, hedge funds and institutions that could see the obvious and made a lot of money.

If a country can't influence it's exchange rate, then it's also beyond the scope of any individual. 

 

In 1997, the Baht was pegged to the US dollar at a rate of 25 Baht per dollar, yet, the US dollar had a far lower interest rate. Therefore, many Thais borrowed US dollars, invested in Baht, which paid a better interest rate.

Two currencies that are tied together, but with different interest rates. It couldn't last. The money market saw that the Thai Baht had no clothes and couldn't justify the interest rate and sold short, betting against it. After the Thai government tried to defend the Baht by depleting it's foreign reserves, it was forced to uncouple the Baht from the dollar and let it float.

All those Thais that had taken out loans denominated in dollars were financially massacred.

Edited July 12, 2019 by Joe Mcseismic

[baruto]

27 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

The reverse they want it to go down.  No exports, no tourism = no taxes.  No taxes no submarines.   

No they don't. Why the rates are kept high then?

[marcusarelus]

Just now, baruto said:

No they don't. Why the rates are kept high then?

They are not kept high.  The pound and dollar are low because of Trump and Brexit.  

 

They (Thailand) can not manipulate their currency.  If they could they would have saved the baht in 1997 but could not.

[marcusarelus]

15 minutes ago, Joe Mcseismic said:

I think you are getting mixed up with Sterling in 1993. He was just one of the many people, banks, hedge funds and institutions that could see the obvious and made a lot of money.

If a country can't influence it's exchange rate, then it's also beyond the scope of any individual. 

 

In 1997, the Baht was pegged to the US dollar at a rate of 25 Baht per dollar, yet, the US dollar had a far lower interest rate. Therefore, many Thais borrowed US dollars, invested in Baht, which paid a better interest rate.

Two currencies that are tied together, but with different interest rates. It couldn't last. The money market saw that the Thai Baht had no clothes and couldn't justify the interest rate and sold short, betting against it. After the Thai government tried to defend the Baht by depleting it's foreign reserves, it was forced to uncouple the Baht from the dollar and let it float.

All those Thais that had taken out loans denominated in dollars were financially massacred.

Google, "Soros' speculative attack against the Thai baht in the spring of 1997"

[GeorgeCross]

20 minutes ago, Joe Mcseismic said:

Not really, he was just one of the many people, banks, hedge funds and institutions that could see the obvious and made a lot of money.

If a country can't influence it's exchange rate, then it's also beyond the scope of any individual. 

 

any country with its OWN currency can easily influence its own exchange rate by either increasing supply of the money directly (printing/easing), devaluing, increasing bank loan allowances or increasing their government bond supply.

 

indirectly they can also lower interest base rates or spend down their foreign exchange reserves

 

countries with shared currencies cannot which is why southern eurozone countries are in such a mess

 

the fact they do not here, is through choice not because they can not

 

currency manipulation is easy.. but frowned upon internationally

 

look up zimbabwe and weimer hyperinflations to see how easy it is to add some extra zeros to a currency!

 

the bigger more relevent question is if they can why do they not?

 

 

Edited July 12, 2019 by GeorgeCross

[marcusarelus]

17 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

 

Taksin's government wanted to close their bars at midnight, after being shouted down when the minister responsible wanted to close them at 10. And it was the same government who banned the sale of alcohol in daylight hours except between 11 and 2.

Thaksin made the girls put tops on.  I cried for years.  

[Stevemercer]

7 hours ago, Joe Mcseismic said:

The strength of the Thai Baht is not "artificial".

The reason it is so high is because:-

Increasing foreign exchange reserves.

Low inflation rate.

Low unemployment.

Resilient economy.

Concern about European economies (their currencies losing value).

 

The Thai Central Bank has the same job as other Central banks; to keep inflation in check. This is why they have very limited options with regard to the exchange rate.

 

The foreign exchange market is far bigger than any single countries power to influence their own currency.

Britain tried to support Sterling in 1993, but, still crashed out of the ERM.

Thailand tried to do the same in 1997 and spent most of their foreign currency reserves.

In both cases, it was the foreign exchange market that determined the outcome.

I'm not sure I agree that governments are passive bystanders re a country's currency. And I'm pretty sure the governor of the Thai central bank is not about to make decisions independent of the Thai government.

 

It is clear from their statements that the central bank is comfortable with a high baht - presumably the government is too. Sometime they play around the edges and make noises about a lower Baht, but this is just background fluff and the market knows it.

 

In contrast, just about every other country has a policy position pushing a lower currency to boost exports and dampen imports. Certainly Thailand's South East Asian neighbours must be comfortable with the Thai Governments position - more exports and jobs for them.

 

 

[marcusarelus]

Just now, GeorgeCross said:

any country with its OWN currency can easily influence its own exchange rate by either increasing supply of the money directly (printing/easing), devaluing, increasing bank loan allowances or increasing their government bond supply.

 

indirectly they can also lower interest base rates or spend down their foreign exchange reserves

 

countries with shared currencies cannot which is why southern eurozone countries are in such a mess

 

the fact they do not here, is through choice not because they can not

 

currency manipulation is easy.. but frowned upon internationally

In 1997 Thailand's economy crashed because they could not manipulate their currency.  Maybe take a look.  

 

There are 30 countries or so that are undergoing hyper inflation if they could manipulate their currency they would. Maybe take a look.  

 

The UK is struggling because of the weak pound.  They can't get it stronger.  Maybe take a look.  

[Joe Mcseismic]

4 minutes ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

any country with its OWN currency can easily influence its own exchange rate by either increasing supply of the money directly (printing/easing), devaluing, increasing bank loan allowances or increasing their government bond supply.

 

indirectly they can also lower interest base rates or spend down their foreign exchange reserves

 

countries with shared currencies cannot which is why southern eurozone countries are in such a mess

 

the fact they do not here, is through choice not because they can not

 

currency manipulation is easy.. but frowned upon internationally

 

 

True, but there are dire consequences to all of those actions.

If they print more money inflation increases.

If they lower interest rates (historically low at the moment) they make risk overheating the economy and adding to debt.

All cures which are worse than the disease.

 

If they try to do anything that is unwarranted, the money markets will jump all over them.

Edited July 12, 2019 by Joe Mcseismic

[marcusarelus]

Just now, Stevemercer said:

I'm not sure I agree that governments are passive bystanders re a country's currency. And I'm pretty sure the governor of the Thai central bank is not about to make decisions independent of the Thai government.

 

It is clear from their statements that the central bank is comfortable with a high baht - presumably the government is too. Sometime they play around the edges and make noises about a lower Baht, but this is just background fluff and the market knows it.

 

In contrast, just about every other country has a policy position pushing a lower currency to boost exports and dampen imports. Certainly Thailand's South East Asian neighbours must be comfortable with the Thai Governments position - more exports and jobs for them.

Do you think the UK is happy with it's low value pound right now?  

[connda]

2 hours ago, Tidybeard said:

2014 - price of a small beer in a local bar = 40 Baht. Exchange rate was around 55 to £1 so cost to British tourist was £0.72.

 

2019 - price of a small beer in a local bar = 60 Baht. Exchange rate is 38 to £1, so cost to British Tourist is £1.58

 

Looks like a 100% + increase in 5 years.... that is why tourists are staying away.

 

Oh - and of my 20 or so friends who all bought houses and have lived here for 10 years plus... 3 have left already and 6 have their houses for sale. All going back to Europe as it is cheaper to live there now. If you don't believe me, check out Ocado.com. 

Let see.  Green pepper.  2.50 pounds sterling (97 THB) for 270 grams. 
In my village market. Green pepper.  20 THB (.5 pounds sterling) for 1 kilogram.

There is no way your home country is going to compete with prices of local produce in Thai markets.  Fruits and vegetables are cheap compared to most Western countries.

 
Now, for those who shop 'upscale' in farang friendly stores - yeah, you're paying a premium - just buy a bottle of wine for sticker shock.  How about a steak?  

[marcusarelus]

25 minutes ago, sambum said:

That is the "Orange Line" on the chart - the ACTUAL HOUSEHOLD DEBT OUTSTANDING is shown quite clearly above that and is as I have already stated, or are you being deliberately obtuse? 

The meaningful number is debt as a percent of GDP.

[digger70]

It won't happen overnight,,,, but it will happen, the THB will come down they just can't keep holding it up, what goes up Must go down.    ????

[bander]

8 hours ago, khwaibah said:

200 baht short time.???? The good old days.????

In the good old days 1990-2000, now you can add another zero.

[mserror]

7 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Chickens as they say, always come home to roost. Does the blame for dramatically lower numbers lie solely with the locals? You have to say yes. For too long Thailand has treated its tourists as little more than an ATM, to be taken for as much as possible, while giving as little as possible in return. Too many have gone home reporting bad experiences, and more than a few in a box, while the strength of the Baht makes it more and more an expensive option. I don't see any return to the glory days any time soon, as there are simply too many problems which the Thais seem incapable of addressing properly.

Correct. I went to Phuket 30 y ago, and enjoyed it, but do not want to go back due to low expectations.

 

When I travel for fun, I go to developed countries, it is great to have a break from the endless nonsense and danger in undeveloped countries. Usually much more cultural attractions. And not always a lot more expensive.

[4MyEgo]

I have to agree with most posters here.

 

Have been coming to Thailand since 2006, then moving here in 2015, I got to say, after this next trip home abroad from Issan via Phuket for a short trip to see family & friends, this will be our last return holiday in Phuket before we head back home to Issan.

 

The drop in the $ hasn't affected me or my budget, just a little more careful in spending, but the change in Thai's over the years that I have personally seen, i.e. the greed at every which way you turn is not only in the touristy places, I mean do they ever think, hey..... be careful this farang might live here and know the prices, e.g. small chemist, Sawadee can I have one strip of Sara tablets (paracetamol) please, yes one strip 100 baht, what the fark, you mean 10 baht, Thai: nod of head looking down, yes 10 baht, or your asked to pay for something you didn't order from the menu, or checking your bin as the drink receipt hits the cup, ah hello, I ordered 2 beers, one for me and one for my mate, i.e. 2 people, 2 beers, Thai: walks away with bill, comes back, yes you have 2 beers and then another 2 beers after ok, no thanks, here is your money for 2 beers check bin Krup !

 

I have always considered myself a good tipper and helped the Thai's as much as possible where I can with a tip, now I am very selective, i.e. if the hotel service is crap, zero tip, if the taxi driver drives like he thinks he is Steve McQueen, zero tip, if the restaurant service is slow and the food crap, zero tip.

 

I know people are on low wages and there is no incentive to up the anti a bit, e.g. take pride in what they do in the service industry, so my tips are now performance based and as far as I am concerned, you get what you serve, and it only takes one attempt to try and rip me off and your on the "do not return" to this place list again, and if on websites like TripAdvisor or the like, they will feel my rant warning others, like not changing the bedsheets, just reversing them, e.g. head of the sheet to the feet, I purposely make a mark at the foot of the sheets to see if they will just reverse them as once happened to me, as opposed to taking them off and sending them off to be washed, cost cutting, well, I don't like putting my head where my feet have previously been so I am sure my rant warned a fair few intending tourists I hope to their bad practices and cost them $'s.

 

Next holidays will be Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, might even go back to the Greek Islands as I used to in the 80's although I was much younger then ????

 

Edited July 12, 2019 by 4MyEgo

[mike787]

1 hour ago, vinniekintana said:

I understand, backpackers are deserting Thailand too.

High baht (obviously) and other 

Much safer because there are hardly any cars  ????

YES!!!....And wear helmets protecting that common sense brain????

[CNXexpat]

6 hours ago, neeray said:

graffiti penalties, jumpers, food poisoning

In every country you will be fined for graffiti. There are more than 30 million tourists per year, about how many food poisoned tourists did you read? 

 

In general: many tourists they came before to Thailand like to explore other countries in SEA now, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, etc. I have been in Hanoi last month. Many western tourists there. 

[4MyEgo]

3 minutes ago, CNXexpat said:

how many food poisoned tourists did you read?

Thailand doesn't record how many food poisonings there are per year, but I reckon it would be right up there IMHO.

[roadrunner32]

The trade war between the US and China is also affecting investment. Investors as well as tourists themselves are running scared. 

What does the trade war between the US and China have to do with the decline in tourists? I didn't understand this.  Are the tourists scared ? I believe the tourists are scared of the strong thai currency, rather than of a war of which no one cares, certainly not to tourists