If you think pattaya is dead now .. check out this

[smudger1951]

Pattaya certainly was devoid of western farang back in June/July. The whole nature of the place will change now, thats what they wanted anyway was'nt it ? Thais on weekend jaunts out of Bangkok etc. I have never thought the downturn would influence the policy on the baht value.

[dotpoom]

On 9/30/2019 at 6:59 AM, banglay said:

Do not want to be one of the doom and gloom Pattaya is dead people ... but check out this site for the Thai baht > UK pound forecast for the next 4 years ..If this is only halfway correct it could be the final nail in Pattaya's coffin ..

Gooooooood!........Oh!.........(had a feeling might be too good to be true).

[madmen]

How many final nail posts in the last twenty years , 20k ? that coffin is pure lead!

[chrisinth]

I love threads like this, especially when they involve long term exchange rates between currencies.

 

Using the algorithm they use is all dependent on one currency remaining stable. If the Thai baht remains this strong for the next 4 - 5 years, it will destroy their economy, period.

 

IMO, won't be long before the PM gives 7 days to devalue the baht to make things right for the exports. That'll mess up the guesswork.....................

[newnative]

51 minutes ago, Nip said:

Would I be correct in assuming your involved in Pattaya real estate? Building condominiums and hotels is one thing selling or renting them is another. I have been known to visit Pattaya and my rule of thumb is the hotel I stay in has been charging the same room rate for close to 10 years and at a guess it's only 35% occupied. Bangkok is awash with empty hotels and condominiums too.

     My only involvement in Pattaya real estate is doing condo flips.  Have done 16 in Pattaya--all at a profit.  Contrary to many of the postings on T/V, you can buy a condo in Thailand and not lose your shirt.  A quality condo in a good location with a good sea view will find a buyer.  Most of my condo sales were done with the help of an agent but I am not an agent and I have no wish to be one--too hard a job for lazy me.

     The subject of this thread--and others we have had on a regular basis--is Pattaya is dead because of this or because of that.  Usually the 'because of this or because of that' in the threads boils down to Western white men not coming to Pattaya anymore.  In this thread it is British tourists so fairly close to the mark.

     So, basically, someone comes to Pattaya who has been here before, goes to his favorite pub, finds it mostly empty, and declares on T/V that Pattaya is dead.  In reality, his favorite pub might be dead but Pattaya is not.  

     Yesterday someone posted a photo shoot of some not busy areas of Pattaya as, I suppose, further proof that Pattaya is dead.  I have lived here 9 years and I have to confess I didn't recognize some of the photos--guess they are areas I--and tourists--don't go to much.  A lot of it looked tacky.  I did recognize one pic as, I think, the inside of Pattaya Night Market--which is usually busier at 'night' than during the day--hence the name.

     Had the poster gone up to north Pattaya late afternoon through the evening, his photos would have reflected something different.  Less ticky tacky to start.  Still some there but gradually being replaced.  And, lots of tourists.  I mentioned the new Ozo Hotel, Amari additions, and Mytt Hotel already--and, of course T21--but there's also a lot of other smaller development going on--such as the nice, new addition in front of Tiffany's and the Goody's open air complex and the spruced-up shopping arcades, as well as some newer boutique hotels.   Plus the horrible eyesore by McDonalds is finally being redeveloped.  The tourists that might have been at Pattaya Night Market during the day in years past are likely now at T21 in air-conditioning.  

     The hotel you stay at might not be doing well but that doesn't mean all are suffering.  Perhaps your hotel caters to a tourist demographic that now has fewer numbers.  Amari deciding to build a big addition and Grande Centre Point an entirely new hotel--just 2 examples--shows me that there is a growing market for their calibre of hotel guests.  In Wong Amat where I live there are a number of new boutique hotels that have recently been built to cater to a different tourist class than those looking for a 500 baht a night room.  The Pattaya I see as a full-time resident is one that is ever changing.  Just yesterday driving home my partner and I noticed yet another old property being bulldozed down--likely to be replaced with something nicer than what was there.  

     

[Leaver]

9 hours ago, RickG16 said:

I have an open mind on the subject. There is a school of thought that it is the uncertainty which is harming the economy, and that decisive action either way could see the GBP rebound.

 

 

As no one knows for 100% certainty how it will all play out, including, Brexit doesn't even happen, i also keep an open mind. 

 

However, the uncertainty that you describe exits now, and has existed for some time, revolves mainly around what "deal" could be struck around the exit.  Come the 31st October, if the UK is out, deal or no deal, that uncertainty ends, and a whole new uncertainty starts, and that new uncertainty, over time, will become a certainty, and that certainty may not be kind to the GBP, for many years to come.  

 

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that the UK leave the EU, only to have another referendum in the near future asking the people if they would like to rejoin.  

[Searat7]

I went to Pattaya (Jomtien area) this past weekend and found it very quiet compared to past years at this time. A number of bars and stores have been shuttered and the only places with customers seemed to be bars with live entertainment. Also saw a For Sale sign on a restaurant which was always busy in the past. 

[newnative]

2 hours ago, jacko45k said:

It is changing, it will become something new. It wants to become like Singapore, which is successful but sterile. New buildings is what Thailand does, take a look around Buakhao, many bar 'For Sale' signs, yet go into Tree town, a new bar complex. T21 built at great expense, so was Harbor Mall which is devoid of customers most days. Pattaya is a City you cannot get into, traffic queues on Hwy 7 into town, at every Sukhumvit junction, and the 3 main arteries into town stationary and partially blocked by parked vehicles. Hard to see the infrastructure investment beyond a tunnel and burying of cables, and a Beach Road looking like a bomb site, as it has done for the last decade. 

 Yes, growing pains can be difficult and frustrating.  But, something gowing is likely not dying or dead.

[moe666]

Read a very interesting article yesterday why Cook folded and the summation boiled down to the changing needs of the new and modern tourist. The writer says Cook instead of giving the new tourist what they wanted tried to offer what they had been giving with a cheap cover up. Cook assumed the new trends were only fads and refused to actually offer interesting things for people on vacation. The article was in yesterdays Bangkok Post written by a Bloomberg contributer

[Kerryd]

I first came here in '93. We were getting 20 baht to the (Canadian) dollar. I remember buying 4 t-shirts for 100 baht (just over $1 each). I remember staying at a "mid-range" hotel with a pool in Bangkok for 1,500 a night. Ended up in a new hotel in Pattaya (no pol) a few days later for just 300 a night.
That was when the Liberals were in charge and they decided that a devalued Canadian dollar was "good for business" and even when it hit a historical low (vs the US $) they didn't see any reason to intervene. (They were making money off of selling Canadian resources at huge discounts.)

Then, a little over 10 years later, the Conservatives came into power. The economy started improving and oil prices rose. Our dollar went from a low of .62 (to the US) under the Liberals to a high of nearly $1.10 under the Conservatives !  The Liberals were crying that businesses would close and hundreds of thousands would be out of work. Didn't happen. Not even remotely. What it did was show how incompetent (and/or corrupt) the Liberals were.

Meanwhile in Thailand, we went from 20 baht to $1 to nearly 34/1 ! (So glad my paycheques were going into my Thai account then !)

What sucked was that even though the Canadian $ was worth more than the US $ (for awhile at least), we still had a poorer exchange rate compared to what the Yanks were getting ! If we were getting 34/1, they were getting 35/1. When we dropped to 32/1, they were still getting 34/1 even though our dollar (internationally) was worth more !

Now, with lower oil prices and the Liberals in government again, our dollar is down to around 23/1 and will drop further if they are re-elected as they are promising larger deficit budgets and larger national debt for years to come. Considering how they lied during the last election, I suspect the numbers they are quoting now are nowhere even close to what they actually will be if they get re-elected.

(Last time, they campaigned on the idea that they would run "modest" $10 BILLION deficits for 3 years and then the budget would (magically) balance itself (somehow) - just before the next election conveniently. However, within weeks of being elected, they suddenly changed their tune and announced they'd be running $30 BILLION deficits instead. Recently they were applauding themselves because they had determined that they'd be able to balance the budget - by the year 2040 !!! They were celebrating because they initially thought it would take them until 2045 !!!!! So much for the budget "balancing itself" by 2019 eh.)

I suspect out dollar will tank even further if they get into power again, however, despite what Thai Immigration has said in the past, Canadians do NOT make up the largest contingent of expats in Thailand so I doubt there will be much effect on the economy (or Pattaya's "survival") regardless of what happens in Canada.

 

And actually, if you read the news, the problem isn't with the £ or the dollar - it's with the strong Thai baht. The Thai authorities have acknowledge that the strength of the Baht is having an effect (and not just on tourism). 

That's what happens when you have political stability and a growing economy - your currency starts becoming more valuable (to other people) and other currencies - while perhaps not losing strength on their own - trade at a lower value.
(Remember how I mentioned when the Cdn $ was worth more than the US $, but was trading lower when compared to the Baht.)

Your currency may still be as strong as it was back when the exchange rates were better, but back then the Thai baht was much weaker. What you need is for your currency to strengthen while the baht weakens, preferably at the same time.

 

Will we ever get back to the "glory" days ? Who knows ? These things are often cyclical. As I mentioned before, in the 90s, my currency was weak vs the baht, it strengthened in the 00's and went down again in the 10's and, I'm hoping, will strengthen again in the 20's. It seems to be on a 10-15 year cycle but there are so many variables in an ever evolving society that it would be near impossible to predict when the next cycle will be or how much of a change we might see.

 
 

[Leaver]

41 minutes ago, newnative said:

My only involvement in Pattaya real estate is doing condo flips.  Have done 16 in Pattaya--all at a profit. 

All things considered, would you buy a condo in today's market, and if so, when do you think you would be able to flip it for a profit, and if not, why not?

[Leaver]

43 minutes ago, newnative said:

So, basically, someone comes to Pattaya who has been here before, goes to his favorite pub, finds it mostly empty, and declares on T/V that Pattaya is dead.  In reality, his favorite pub might be dead but Pattaya is not.  

Yes, western establishments are dead, whilst there are thousands of Chinese and Indians making the footpaths, and 7/11's and Family Marts, very busy.

 

So, whilst Pattaya may be busy, establishments catering for westerners are dead.  See my thread, "Is the closure of your favorite bar or restaurant imminent?" 

 

The thing is, the tourists Pattaya is busy with, are zero baht tourist, so whilst Pattaya may be busy, the revenue from these tourists is down, way down. 

 

The big tourist numbers is not translating into big tourist baht, and in many cases, where the Chinese do spend, are Chinese owned establishments, so any profits made are repatriated back to China.  All Thailand is seeing out of these big tourist numbers is some employment for 300 baht a day Thai workers. 

[MJKT2014]

21 hours ago, yogi100 said:

23 hours ago, MJKT2014 said:

It was 28THB to the UKP when I travelled to Thailand in '84. Not a biggie IMHO. Markets go up and down.

I was there in '84 and we were getting 32 for our quid. I remember that distinctly because it was my first ever trip to the LOS.

Like I said, markets go up and down, even in the same year such as '84 when I got 28.

28

[bert bloggs]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

As no one knows for 100% certainty how it will all play out, including, Brexit doesn't even happen, i also keep an open mind. 

 

However, the uncertainty that you describe exits now, and has existed for some time, revolves mainly around what "deal" could be struck around the exit.  Come the 31st October, if the UK is out, deal or no deal, that uncertainty ends, and a whole new uncertainty starts, and that new uncertainty, over time, will become a certainty, and that certainty may not be kind to the GBP, for many years to come.  

 

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that the UK leave the EU, only to have another referendum in the near future asking the people if they would like to rejoin.  

only in your dreams i fear .????

[Max69xl]

1 hour ago, Searat7 said:

I went to Pattaya (Jomtien area) this past weekend and found it very quiet compared to past years at this time. A number of bars and stores have been shuttered and the only places with customers seemed to be bars with live entertainment. Also saw a For Sale sign on a restaurant which was always busy in the past. 

It's October 1. In what universe is this the high season? We are between seasons. Try to live in the real world. 

[dreaming]

28 minutes ago, Leaver said:

 

The big tourist numbers is not translating into big tourist baht, and in many cases, where the Chinese do spend, are Chinese owned establishments, so any profits made are repatriated back to China.  All Thailand is seeing out of these big tourist numbers is some employment for 300 baht a day Thai workers. 

You can make the exact same arguement for farang tourists.

 

Drink in farang owned bars, eat in farang owned restaurants, stay in farang owned guesthouses.

[Mac98]

Never get rid of all cheap Charlies because as baht rises it makes cheap Charlies out of the once prosperous expats trying to hang on.  Might even be more cheap Charlies because their savings are now tied up in a Thai bank.

[Leaver]

4 minutes ago, bert bloggs said:

only in your dreams i fear .????

What dreams would that be?

[Leaver]

4 minutes ago, dreaming said:

You can make the exact same arguement for farang tourists.

 

Drink in farang owned bars, eat in farang owned restaurants, stay in farang owned guesthouses.

Usually small operations, and usually involving a Thai wife.

 

With the Chinese, we are talking big companies that own hotels, buses, boats etc, even a fake Thai temple.  ????

[bert bloggs]

4 minutes ago, Leaver said:

What dreams would that be?

that there will be another referendum to rejoin when we leave .

[Leaver]

2 minutes ago, bert bloggs said:

that there will be another referendum to rejoin when we leave .

Are you saying it's impossible?  I don't think so. 

 

No one knows with certainty how Brexit will play out.

[yogi100]

14 minutes ago, dreaming said:

You can make the exact same arguement for farang tourists.

 

Drink in farang owned bars, eat in farang owned restaurants, stay in farang owned guesthouses.

Falangs just put the money up to buy these businesses yet are not even allowed to work in them.

 

Thai people staff and run these businesses and get tipped, salaried and sometimes bar fined by other falangs.

 

If falangs stop coming will these Thais be able to depend on Indians and Chinese punters to provide them with a livelihood?

[shdmn]

1 hour ago, Searat7 said:

I went to Pattaya (Jomtien area) this past weekend and found it very quiet compared to past years at this time. A number of bars and stores have been shuttered and the only places with customers seemed to be bars with live entertainment. Also saw a For Sale sign on a restaurant which was always busy in the past. 

So I guess that TOTALLY explains the fact Jomtien is growing.  You guys crack me up.  Like a previous poster said.  You go to the same bar/soi every year and you declare Pattaya dead because that bar/soi is not as busy.  Meanwhile, there are 10 new bars that have opened up on other sois since then that everyone has moved to.

[hansnl]

On 9/30/2019 at 8:29 AM, newnative said:

     Nice to start the day with a joke.  '...the final nail in Pattaya's coffin'.  55555.  No coffin that I can see--let alone any nails in it.  Quite laughable that you think Pattaya's robust growth these past years has been because of British tourists and now that the Pound is sinking Pattaya will, too.

     In reality, the growth continues.  Several new, large condo projects have been announced to join those already under construction.  Amari's all-suites hotel addition is done and the new Ozo Hotel next door is nearing completion.  Several hotels are remodeling and adding features--such as A-01 on Beach Road.  The city itself is finally doing some infrastructure work.

     Recently I mentioned that in Wong Amat near Cape Dara an old low-rise resort on a large tract of land has been bulldozed and cleared.  Drove by yesterday and saw construction fences going up and a sign announcing 'Grande Centre Point 2.  From the photo it's a large high-rise hotel resort project.  I guess Grande Centre Point at T21 is doing so well--even though Pattaya is apparently near death--that another hotel is on the way.  If posters can tear themselves away from Soi 6 and Walking Street they'll see there's a lot positive going on.  

Building condos booming.

But, besides the Chinese "occupying" some, of many, condos, hoe many are sold?

Building condos is not a sign of "booming" economic fortunes but a certain sign of gambling.

If you would have to pay ten baht for every condom in Thailand you would be very, filthy, rich.

[newatthis]

On 9/30/2019 at 7:18 AM, jonwilly said:

Been coming to Thailand since 1979, forcasting exchange rates is silly.

Just too many factors affected by world wide events that no one can see coming.

 

john

 

Forecasting anything that far ahead is presumptious BUT because I listen to Greta I know it will snow in Ayutthaya on Christmas Day 2022. However the chances of my seeing that are slim because of the apocalyptic scale war that will happen in June 2021 and unfortunately, my finances are insufficient to purchase a seat on the spacecraft that will leave Earth in April 2021 for K2-18.

[jonwilly]

And we had had a serious debate up to last post.

 

john

[NoshowJones]

On 9/30/2019 at 7:19 AM, OneMoreFarang said:

No Brits anymore? It will boom! 

The very good guesthouse I always use in Pattaya does not allow any Indians or Chinese, so waht

you are saying is that this guesthouse will soon be out of business?

I am not saying that you are wrong mind.

[MadMuhammad]

22 hours ago, Chelseafan said:

There are roughly 500,000 to 1 million expats living in Thailand.

divide those numbers by 4 and you're getting close IMO

 

note: referring to caucasian/european expats. Not Cambo, Myanamar or Laos

[Benmart]

I haven't a clue what the future brings. I see the ups and downs and concentrate on today. Avoiding the negative, hatemongers is as easy as depressing "delete", back arrow or powering off.

[Chelseafan]

21 minutes ago, MadMuhammad said:

divide those numbers by 4 and you're getting close IMO

 

note: referring to caucasian/european expats. Not Cambo, Myanamar or Laos

Well that's a different kettle of fish then.