Kbank analyst paints grim picture as Thailand teeters on recession

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, Cadbury said:

Even though Kobsidthi is the bearer of bad news it is refreshing to hear from someone who discusses the situation realistically in a down-to-earth and clear-sighted way. 

As opposed to and in contradiction of the usual ministerial dribble about economic salvation from the unimaginative and repetitive "eat, spend and shop", easy loans and wasteful helicopter money programmes.

That's the difference between a real financial analyst and a spin doctor talking.

[unamazedloso]

i dont work at a desk and wprk hard for a living so dont understand all this dribble but doesnt a recession mean the baht should be a lesser value than it is? Manipulation?

Country has been in recession for about 4years from my observation. Thais are clearly ignorant and in denial to think otherwise. Im getting the popcorn anyway...

 

[Ventenio]

the question is......if you have a million baht just sitting there.... do you convert it to your home currency now?    maybe half might make sense, or maybe not.    thoughts?

[CGW]

4 hours ago, nausea said:

Whatever, the key sentence here is:

Suck it up Thai people, and ex-pats. Now who's benefiting from all this - the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, purely coincidental I'm sure, not like there'd be manipulation or anything.

Exactly, downturn or recession, call it what you like, great time for the "elites" to suck up more assets at bargain prices! Monies loaned (which the banks never had in the first place) will now be replaced by actual tangible assets ???? 

& the social divide will continue to grow..........................

[DUNROAMIN]

2 hours ago, Cadbury said:

Even though Kobsidthi is the bearer of bad news it is refreshing to hear from someone who discusses the situation realistically in a down-to-earth and clear-sighted way. 

As opposed to and in contradiction of the usual ministerial dribble about economic salvation from the unimaginative and repetitive "eat, spend and shop", easy loans and wasteful helicopter money programmes.

 

 

Don't forget the submarine and high speed trains that only the Chinese will use as they are paying for it.

[TKDfella]

Well I don't claim to be an economist but there are two or three Thai families that have trouble with their 'easy to get' bank loans and credit cards. I don't exactly how they have accrued but I'm told it's many thousands...which they cannot pay. This bubble will surely burst if action is taken quickly to curb it. I can't get a credit card from my bank because I am retired yet I could pay my bills if I had; yet the banks are willingly giving credit cards (it seems) to those who can't pay. Oh well.

[miamiman123]

The eyes don’t lie

recession is for the underclass not the elite watch holders ha! 

[khunpa]

Is the writer not aware that the PM already has ordered the economy to be fixed?

 

 

[recom273]

2 minutes ago, Ventenio said:

the question is......if you have a million baht just sitting there.... do you convert it to your home currency now?    maybe half might make sense, or maybe not.    thoughts?

I’m thinking, if you are not intending on returning, then it’s better to sit it out. Is it not? I’m sure it’s not a good time to buy GBP.
 

People with money and a ruthless business approach tend to prosper during a recession. My wife and I Intend to build a house in the future, surely the land with a half a million baht price tag, will become available at 300,000 as purse strings tighten. As building slows down, contractors will be Incentivized to give lower quotes to get work.  
 

Any thoughts?

[sammieuk1]

7 minutes ago, recom273 said:

I’m thinking, if you are not intending on returning, then it’s better to sit it out. Is it not? I’m sure it’s not a good time to buy GBP.
 

People with money and a ruthless business approach tend to prosper during a recession. My wife and I Intend to build a house in the future, surely the land with a half a million baht price tag, will become available at 300,000 as purse strings tighten. As building slows down, contractors will be Incentivized to give lower quotes to get work.  
 

Any thoughts?

Sounds like you will be adding to the recession keep up the good work????

[Skallywag]

22 minutes ago, CGW said:

Exactly, downturn or recession, call it what you like, great time for the "elites" to suck up more assets at bargain prices! Monies loaned (which the banks never had in the first place) will now be replaced by actual tangible assets ???? 

& the social divide will continue to grow..........................

Not in Pattaya.  Several hotels being finished, several condos projects being finished, several more being started. Malls full, street vendors selling ice coffee and fruit all day. Beer Bars opening earlier, selling 60 baht beers with customers arriving at noon. Soi 6 crowded at 4:30 in the afternoon. 7-11 filled with single male indians at all times of the day and night. All looks good here.

[zaZa9]

4 minutes ago, recom273 said:

I’m thinking, if you are not intending on returning, then it’s better to sit it out. Is it not? I’m sure it’s not a good time to buy GBP.
 

People with money and a ruthless business approach tend to prosper during a recession. My wife and I Intend to build a house in the future, surely the land with a half a million baht price tag, will become available at 300,000 as purse strings tighten. As building slows down, contractors will be Incentivized to give lower quotes to get work.  
 

Any thoughts?

Does land go down in price in the UK ?

It hasnt in my home country in the 50 years Ive watched it.

Land is a constant , more people on the earth mean a growing demand for it.

 

For all this talk of recession , I havent seen any Thais lowering  labour prices here in Phuket.

Most have no idea of what the baht is worth on the world stage , they just know that prices are going up.

 

The real head scratcher is foreign sourced building supplies.

The powerful baht should be buying more for less... Im sure thats happening , but the Big Boys in Imports and Retail simply arent passing any savings on.

Who woulda thought ? lol

 

Buy land as an investment , but as rents are so low , simply rent until your pound is back up there.

[spidermike007]

I anticipate a major recession not only here, but worldwide, within the next 1 to 3 years. There is way too much hot air in the balloon. I could see the DOW drop o 4,000, and real estate in the US drop by 60%. Already, in the US the residential real estate market is dropping, and softening significantly.

 

Here? It is anyone's guess, but I think the property market is in for a world of hurt, and with a worldwide recession on top of an inflated baht, and a massive collapse in the tourism industry here, millions are going to be out of work. 

 

Sounds a bit dark, I know. But the recent upswing in the markets was not based on very solid fundamentals. The trillion dollar tax cuts sure helped to stimulate the DOW. And both the unemployment numbers and the inflation numbers are fake within the US, and in Thailand too. Manufactured nonsense. 

[Millcx]

2 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

As with everything, 

 

"Thailand not same same you country!"

 

Thailand is special, in every way, all the time.

Time to put prices up again .. It will solve everything ... Beer 600 thb a can of Archa ... Problem solved

[Isaan sailor]

Take a bow, everyone in the ChanOCha Regime. You engineered this.  And you took the ChiCom bait (hot money inflows, ballooning USD reserves, submarines, bullet trains).  Now we can all see the devastation on the economy.  Enjoy. 

[cerox]

Everyone tells me Thailand should be in recession.

In real life I get kicked out of the country, visa is very difficult for young people since 2019, and the Thai Baht keeps getting more expensive.

Does not match up for me.

[DrTuner]

Finally the Isaan hand of iron has managed to scratch through the Teflon Thailand. Took long enough, my MIL usually manages to destroy a frying pan within seconds.

[rohitsuk]

1 hour ago, mikebell said:

Retirees cannot spend any of their 800,000 for FIVE months of the year so no wonder local industries/services are suffering.  I've had to cut down on my spending drastically.

It is six months in Chiang Mai and we have been warned that Immigration will strictly enforce this requirement. and for the remaining six months you can only spend up to 400k.

Would it not make better sense for the Thai economy that you are required to spend the 800k rather than just sit on it in a deposit account ?  Not if you are the banks who paid the bribe to get this requirement introduced in the first place of course.

Three months before renewal to stop wicked farangs sharing the same 800k to get their visas but what is with the recently three months after ???

The mysteries of Thai economics ever deepen.   

[RobbyXNorway]

17 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I anticipate a major recession not only here, but worldwide, within the next 1 to 3 years. There is way too much hot air in the balloon. I could see the DOW drop o 4,000, and real estate in the US drop by 60%. Already, in the US the residential real estate market is dropping, and softening significantly.

 

Here? It is anyone's guess, but I think the property market is in for a world of hurt, and with a worldwide recession on top of an inflated baht, and a massive collapse in the tourism industry here, millions are going to be out of work. 

 

Sounds a bit dark, I know. But the recent upswing in the markets was not based on very solid fundamentals. The trillion dollar tax cuts sure helped to stimulate the DOW. And both the unemployment numbers and the inflation numbers are fake within the US, and in Thailand too. Manufactured nonsense. 

 

It's all about debt and central bank meddling in markets. That train is running out of tracks soon, as you say.

 

The crazy thing is how the focus has turned from corporate profits and dividends to stock market levels in general. A high stock market level does not equal a healthy corporate world. Everything is now so satured with debt that its just a question of time when it all implodes. The low to negative yields are CRUSHING insurance companies and traditional savers. All the GDPs around the world are ballooned by consumption financed with debt.

[WalkingOrders]

55 minutes ago, TKDfella said:

Well I don't claim to be an economist but there are two or three Thai families that have trouble with their 'easy to get' bank loans and credit cards. I don't exactly how they have accrued but I'm told it's many thousands...which they cannot pay. This bubble will surely burst if action is taken quickly to curb it. I can't get a credit card from my bank because I am retired yet I could pay my bills if I had; yet the banks are willingly giving credit cards (it seems) to those who can't pay. Oh well.

I keep reading comment after comment about the Thai economy being unsound, here I see a bubble mentioned. Other comments about the bank being somehow "ignorant" of basic economics in their comment. The Thai economy is pretty sound. A potential for recession looms. The same words coming out of everywhere  around the globe it seems. I don't see anything strange in the remarks from Kbank. As far as being able to handle a recession Thailand is in a good position to handle it, better then many. Considering they have just come out of a period of military rule, and transition to civilian Government, its hard for me to find serious fault with them. Perhaps everyone needs to review what a really bad economy looks like?

[Ventenio]

43 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I anticipate a major recession not only here, but worldwide, within the next 1 to 3 years. There is way too much hot air in the balloon. I could see the DOW drop o 4,000, and real estate in the US drop by 60%. Already, in the US the residential real estate market is dropping, and softening significantly.

 

Here? It is anyone's guess, but I think the property market is in for a world of hurt, and with a worldwide recession on top of an inflated baht, and a massive collapse in the tourism industry here, millions are going to be out of work. 

 

Sounds a bit dark, I know. But the recent upswing in the markets was not based on very solid fundamentals. The trillion dollar tax cuts sure helped to stimulate the DOW. And both the unemployment numbers and the inflation numbers are fake within the US, and in Thailand too. Manufactured nonsense. 

you could have said the same thing years ago when the Fed started Q1 or whatever.  Now they are on Quantitative Easing #300000 and real estate has gone up maybe 100% in many, many places.  Why not just predict a 99.999% decline in every market, house prices, and worldwide floods, fires, nuclear war and the end of human civilization.  you don't get rich predicting declines, it when you know it will go UP 60%.  

[Misterwhisper]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

Kbank analyst paints grim picture as Thailand teeters on recession

How dare he !!??

The government says all is swell and bright. Who are you going to believe... some upstart analyst or our wholesomely trustworthy government ministers? 

[Baerboxer]

3 hours ago, Colabamumbai said:

How can they predict a strong Baht into the new year?  Manipulating the currency markets.

 

And just how do you think the currency markets can be so easily manipulated?

 

They learned the lessons, for once, following the 97 crash very well. 

 

 

[Baerboxer]

9 minutes ago, WalkingOrders said:

I keep reading comment after comment about the Thai economy being unsound, here I see a bubble mentioned. Other comments about the bank being somehow "ignorant" of basic economics in their comment. The Thai economy is pretty sound. A potential for recession looms. The same words coming out of everywhere  around the globe it seems. I don't see anything strange in the remarks from Kbank. As far as being able to handle a recession Thailand is in a good position to handle it, better then many. Considering they have just come out of a period of military rule, and transition to civilian Government, its hard for me to find serious fault with them. Perhaps everyone needs to review what a really bad economy looks like?

 

Much too sensible a post sir! 

 

The fact is the fundamentals are so sound that foreign exchange traders and speculators still see the ThB as a good haven. That very strong baht (and weak USD) does hurt the export and tourism industries of course. Imports will be cheaper but businesses won't pass them on to customers necessarily. And Thai companies can take advantage by acquiring overseas assets.

 

There are regular warnings of world recession looming at the moment. It's a reasonable bet that unless all the trade wars, political civil unrest all over, which seems to be increasing rather than decreasing, and chancing by certain nations desists, then there may be a world recession, or a war, or apocalypse!

[rwill]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

“We haven’t yet experienced recession, but we’re on the verge of it if we look at quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, the positive result coming from the downward revision for growth in the second,” said Kobsidthi.

See.  They will never show negative growth because they will just revise it before the next announcement.

[moutamine]

6 hours ago, nausea said:

Whatever, the key sentence here is:

Suck it up Thai people, and ex-pats. Now who's benefiting from all this - the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, purely coincidental I'm sure, not like there'd be manipulation or anything.

Yeah baby... I love being paid in Baht... Keep rising, it's like getting a surprise raise every quarter... Who needs investment when you get 7% exchange rate gain every year!!

[kevin612]

I stimulated 900 baht into the Thai economy yesterday,hope this helps.

[Misterwhisper]

2 minutes ago, kevin612 said:

I stimulated 900 baht into the Thai economy yesterday,hope this helps.

I trust you also got some stimulation out of it ????

[traveller101]

Quote Kasikorn's financial analyst:

"The current 1.25% rate is a historic low, and a further cut would not curb the baht's rise".

If he or any of the economic decision-makers were to look further then the tip of their nose (I know Thailand is special not same as your country) they would realise

that this statement is demonstrably untrue.

Switzerland a few years ago faced the same situation after the National Bank abandoned their policy of maintaining the exchange rate 1.20 SF to 1 €. Immediately the SF traded at parity and even below with the €.

If the National Bank had not introduced drastic measures to prevent the Export Sector from collapse, the country would have gone into a severe recession.

At the time the interest rate was already close to zero -not 1.25% as here- and the Swiss National Bank lowered the rate to ..... minus 0.75%.

Now that is a historical low and a full 2% below Thailand's rate. This rate is still applied at present.

This means in simple terms that foreign entities have to pay for the priviledge of holding Swiss currency.

The effect was immediate with the € trading ever since between 8 and 10% above parity. Other main currencies also appreciated against the Swiss Franc.

If Thailand is serious of avoiding recession and once and for all bringing the Baht under control - this is the recipe for success.

And their stupid excuse being labelled a currency manipulator doesn't hold water - Switzerland is not listed as a currency manipulator by the US Treasury Department.

 

 

 

 

[chilli42]

4 hours ago, Colabamumbai said:

How can they predict a strong Baht into the new year?  Manipulating the currency markets.

Presumably he does not see any change in interest rates by the central bank